A blog that tries to make sense of how the UK's national climate translates into local weather for Wanstead and the surrounding regions of east London and west Essex.
Check out my twitter feed @wanstead_meteo for local weather forecasts, stats, records and phenomena for the east London areas of Wanstead, Aldersbrook, Leytonstone and Stratford. And anything else weather
Southwesterly winds have returned with a vengeance this week after being mostly absent for large parts of this year. The airmass to our west is pumping very mild and balmy air from a warmer than normal north Atlantic, bringing a mix of blustery winds and rain. It has also seen the return of the constant whine of planes on the flightpath into Heathrow, to enable the preferred method of landing into the wind.
As they reach the Wanstead area the jets turn, approximately 6,000ft up, for their final approach into the UK’s only hub airport.
On a Monday the din begins with the overnight arrivals from the Far East. Today the 04:50 BA flight from Hong Kong, was delayed, giving residents under the flightpath a 10 minute reprieve until 5am when another BA flight, from Singapore, began its final approach. On a clear day 44 flights land every hour at Heathrow, or one plane every 1.36 minutes. And this figure is without the air traffic flying into and out of City.
The congested flightpath during a westerly landing regime is in sharp comparison to an easterly landing regime – when the final turns occur over more rural areas. To give you some idea of what that looks like here is a time-lapse video of the jets landing
As noise goes Wanstead gets off lightly in comparison with places like Hounslow. Though the dB are vastly reduced over our part of town the noise is very noticeable on quiet streets first thing in the morning. A recent study suggested that there is a link between aircraft noise and increased risk of heart disease.
Heathrow and many business leaders want a third runway at Heathrow which is currently running to near capacity. They argue that without extra capacity the UK economy will greatly suffer. The owner of Heathrow argue that their case is the cheapest and quickest way to fix the UK’s capacity problem. Constructing a third runway is estimated to cost £18bn and would open between 2025 and 2029.
The London Mayor, Boris Johnson, on the other hand, wants a new hub to be built in the Thames estuary, at an estimated cost of £96bn. He is vehemently against expanding Heathrow, which exposes 250,000 west Londoners to extreme noise, and would like it closed.
The strength of Heathrow Airport Holdings’ case stems from how it is likely to be the cheapest and quickest way to fix Britain’s hub capacity crunch. Building a third runway could cost up to £18bn and would open between 2025 and 2029.
Contrast that with the estimated £96bn bill and 2029 opening target for a proposed new hub in the Thames estuary, although Boris Johnson, London’s mayor, says the net cost to the taxpayer would be £25bn once the new airport was privatised. Mr Johnson is a vociferous opponent of expanding Heathrow, which is Europe’s noisiest airport with almost 250,000 west London residents exposed to jet din. He wants it closed down.
Many commentators say his favoured solution of an estuary airport is pie in the sky – but with China keen to spend money on infrastructure in other countries you have to wonder ‘Why not!’. Hong Kong solved their own capacity problems at Kai Tak with the construction of an airport on reclaimed land at Chep Lap Kok off Lantau Island. The facility is designed by Lord Foster who has also designed a blueprint for the Thames estuary.
Not a week goes by without alternative plans to solve London’s capacity crunch being put forward – from Heathrow’s third runway to an option of second runways at Gatwick and Stansted. What many don’t seem to be talking about is the option of developing Manston in Kent.
As someone who has visited the area frequently over the past few years there seems to have been a disproportionate amount spent on infrastructure to what would normally pass for improvements to a region.
Roads around the airport have been dualled (not to alleviate any current traffic problems). Many Holiday Inn-type hotels seem to be springing up – always a sign that big money is about to move in. The HS1 fast train line has vastly speeded up travel times to the area – it wouldn’t cost much to extend a loop right in to what is now Kent International Airport / Manston). There’s also the redundant Pfizer site – which is linked to the airport via the new dual carriageway. Rumours around the fate of this site include a business park and new Hollywood studio.
The existing runway is one of the longest in Europe – it used to be on Nasa’s list of emergency landing sites for the Space Shuttle because of its huge length.
I think the airport is already host to a lot of air freight – judging by the number of 747 cargo planes you see landing. Other factors in Manston’s favour is the approach to the runway. Obviously it would be grim for anyone living in the coastal towns there in terms of noise – but it’s millions less than residential areas around Heathrow.
The area is also in dire need of job opportunities and is among the most deprived in the south-east.
Whatever is agreed it is a decision that is bound to be unpopular.
On looking at NOAA’s sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Atlantic tonight there seems to be a lot of orange (warmer than usual) off the coast of Ireland across the pond to the US.
A lot of energy therefore has to be displaced before we can start thinking about any sustained cold weather – and is a big part of the reason why the Atlantic has kicked back into life.
Expect a succession of depressions, driven along by a brisk jet stream (currently right over us blowing at over 100knts) to whistle across us in the next 10 to 14 days bringing very mild temperatures together with a mix of rain, blustery winds and sunshine. Any HP ridges will probably be short-lived – though equally any rainfall should be average. In these situations most of the rain falls over western parts of the British Isles.
So, in summary, a changeable spell is coming up – just like autumn should be
Two anniversaries will stick in the minds of England fans tonight. The first happened this same week, the second happened this same night. Both were national tragedies.
It is 40 years ago almost to the day that a decent England side failed to beat Poland and thus did not qualify for the 1974 World Cup. Jan Tomaszewski, the Polish keeper dismissed as a ‘clown’ before the game by Brian Clough, pulled off a string of outstanding saves during a cold, damp night at Wembley, effectively booking his team’s place in Germany at the expense of Alf Ramsey’s England.
Fourteen years later what was dismissed as an innocuous looking low in the English Channel turned into one of the worst storms in English history, with 100mph winds causing massive devastation across the country and killing 18 people. The Great Storm of 1987 also toppled about 15 million trees, including six of the famous old oaks in the town of Sevenoaks, Kent. A nation was left poleaxed again.
The weather tonight will bear little resemblance to 26 years ago though will not be too dissimilar to that fateful night at Wembley. The damp, cold conditions coming after a week that was dominated by low pressure – the similarities are striking.
So before we write off Poland tonight and believe that England just have to turn up to qualify for Brazil next year bear in mind that football, just like the weather, is about probability. And sometimes those probabilities, no matter how remote, can work against our favour.
In the autumn of 1988 Jean Michel Jarre staged Destination Docklands – two concerts of lights, lasers, fireworks and music set amid the derelict Royal Docks of east London.
The concerts nearly didn’t happen though. After what seemed like months struggling against council bureaucracy and satisfying concerns over safety Team Jarre were faced with another nightmare on the day: the Great British weather. A howling force 7 westerly hampered preparations for the first concert on the morning of October 8th – a day which turned out to be the wettest day of 1988. Nearly an inch of rain soaked the grandstands and dock area – but the water was the least of production crews worries…
The floating stage, a giant 30m by 40m ‘battleship’ constructed on top of 16 huge steel barges towed down from the north of England especially for the event, was supposed to move from one end of Royal Victoria Dock to the other. But with 400 tonnes of material on board it was thought safer to leave it locked in its berth – leaving whole sections of the crowd in temporary grandstands wondering where the Frenchman was twiddling his knobs. Not that it mattered.
Jarre’s outdoor son et lumieres have always been about the spectacle as a whole with searchlights, lasers and fireworks exploding in time to the music. As with his record-breaking Houston show two years prior giant hand-painted Panni images were projected on to buildings – this time the freshly-painted Spillers Millennium Mills building.
If anything the constant wind and intermittent rain added to drama of the show that took the spectator from the Industrial Revolution through the Swingin’ Sixties up to the 1990s. Jarre was joined on stage by Hank Marvin for London Kid and Rendezvous IV. Mireille Pombo and a choir from Mali also joined Jarre on stage for September, a piece he dedicated to Dulcie September, a South African anti-apartheid political activist, who was assassinated in Paris, France, in March of that year.
The concerts were watched by 200,000 people in the Royal Docks area and thousands more in the surrounding streets and parks.
The Royal Docks have come a long way since the concert. Where the crowd stood is now home to the excellent ExCeL exhibition centre. The fledgling London City airport has grown into a convenient European hub. The small STOL planes bound for Edinburgh and Rotterdam have been joined by BAe 146 jets – even though the airport’s initial promise was to refrain from using jets.
A cable car can now whisk you across the Thames and there are plans to turn the adjacent Royal Albert Dock into a tech hub for China.
There’s some footage of the months of preparation that went into the concert on YouTube. The Making of Destination Docklands sets the scene of the difficulties of putting the show together – and includes some fascinating footage of a wasteland that was the Royal Victoria Dock.
The UK’s hottest day was recorded on August 10, 2003, when temperatures across the south-east soared above 38C for the first time.
A study since then has uncovered that the 38.5C (101.3F) value may be anomalous after it became apparent that the Brogdale value was nearly 2C higher than nearby stations – a fact that would normally rule out such a reading. The actual site also leaves something to be desired with the leylandii hedge being too close to the met enclosure – and possibly helping up the temperature. Scientists are a fussy lot and like things to be done properly – believing that the figure of 38.1C recorded at Kew and Gravesend on August 10 represents the true record.
But the Met Office refuse to budge and are sticking with Brogdale.
I recorded 38.4C in my own back garden – but because it is not an official site it doesn’t count. Other sites close by also set records that day: 37.9C was reached at Epping while another observer at Woodford Green recorded 36.5C at 2.30pm.
Being the weather anorak I am my memories of that day are still very clear. The birth of my first daughter was imminent and my wife and I were frantically trying to finish the kitchen of our house in Leytonstone. I’d borrowed a van off a mate that day to pick up kitchen units from the Stansted area. The old Renault Master didn’t have air conditioning and a faulty fan made the cabin feel like an oven. As we trundled back down the M11 from our trip to ‘You’re Furnished’ I wound down the window to experience what I can only describe as like being blasted with a hairdryer. Obviously anything above normal body temperature of 37C is going to feel warm – the opposite of the windchill factor you get in winter. Somehow, through all the heat and pouring with sweat, we managed to unload the van at the other end and completed the kitchen.
The day was the peak of the heatwave with just a couple more 30C days before, much to the relief of my wife, cooler weather arrived. Our daughter was born, over two weeks past her due date, on September 7. A sunny, fresh morning I’ll also never forget.
People often ask if it is possible that the record will be broken. Of course with the right synoptics anything is possible. And official records in the UK, and the world, are just a blip of what has gone before. Diaries of events during the July 1808 heatwave, mentioning accounts of people and livestock dropping dead in fields and birds dropping out of the sky, suggest that somewhere in Lincolnshire possibly saw the temperature exceed 40C.
A report in today’s Express suggests that a heatwave could be on the way. Unless they are looking at a different set of charts I think the report is probably more to boost their sales – figures show that every time the paper splashes on the weather sales spike 10%.
While we may still see the odd hot day, as we did last Thursday when I recorded the year’s second-highest temperature of 33.6C, I don’t think we are going to see a sustained run of 30C plus temperatures. More *heatspike* than *heatwave*. August is likely to be average overall.
One of the worst weather-related tragedies ever to hit the London area happened 75 years ago this month.
What started as a bright and sunny day in Valentines Park, Ilford, turned into disaster at ten minutes to five on Monday, 21 August 1939, when lightning struck a corrugated iron shelter where about 30 people, many of them children, had taken cover from a thunderstorm.
Seven people, including five adults and two children, were killed and 21 injured in the incident near an open air swimming pool where earlier families had been enjoying picnics.
The event was recorded in The Times the following day: “About 5 o’clock there was one final flash, followed by a deafening crash. Everyone in the shelter was thrown to the ground and rescuers who had heard the cries of the injured found them piled in a heap. One of the two women killed had most of her clothing torn off. A man was lying dead on the cross-bar of a cycle. A woman at the back of the shelter was lying unconcious with her arms round two screaming children.”
A survivor of the tragedy, Mrs H. Treves, of Barkingside, told how she had gone to the park that day with her two daughters, June, three, and Shirley, seven, for a picnic. She told The Times: “Suddenly the storm broke, and we ran for the shelter. Inside there were about 30 people, and we were all huddled at the back away from the rain. I sat on a bench at the back of the shed with June in my arms and Shirley by my side. Suddenly I was flung from the bench. I must have been stunned for some minutes, because when I came to I found Shirley lying beside me and the ground heaped with people who seemed unconscious. I heard June whimpering, and eventually found her beneath three or four people. One of the men lying across her was dead. I escaped with only burns on my side. June had burns to her foot and Shirley burns on her shoulder and foot.”
One woman told how she had a lucky escape. Mrs A. Galey, of Ilford, said: “I stood in the shelter for about 20 minutes, and then something inside me urged me to leave. I had got about 50 yards when there was a flash and I felt numb. I turned around to go back to the shelter, and then saw all the people huddled on the ground. It looked like a battlefield”
Among the injured were a number of electrical workers who had been repairing a cable which ran through the 150-acre park. Neither the hut, which measured about 20ft by 12ft and had a sloping galvanised iron roof, or the two trees immediately behind it, were damaged.
The local paper, The Recorder, reported the horrific scene that unfolded moments after the strike. It describes other park users frantically trying to help the stricken people in the shelter. One of the first on the scene was Mr A.B. Rowe, an A.R.P warden, from Romford. He said: “I was coming from the pool when a boy ran up and said ‘They have been struck’. I went over and found a heap of people, some terribly injured, in the shelter. During the war I saw some terrible sights, but none more horrible than this. Many were terribly burned and others were twisted into all kinds of positions and unable to move.”
Another helper was Mr H.G.B. Goater, of Eastern Avenue, Ilford. He had also been to the pool and was attracted to the scene by the screaming. “It was like a battlefield. I have seen nothing like it. The dead and injured were in a heap in the shelter.” Mr Goater spent several hours going back and forth to King George hospital with his car, first taking the injured for treatment and then waiting to take home some of those who were allowed to leave.
Among the dead was Dorothy Cribbett, of Capel Road, Forest Gate. She had taken shelter in the hut and was waiting for her 11-year-old daughter, Peggy, to join her when the lightning struck. Her grandson, Ian Braithwaite, 44, whom I managed to track down while researching this piece, takes up the story. “As my mother was making her way from the pool to the shelter lightning struck a bicycle that was leaning against the shelter – leading to the deaths of the people.”
Ian, who now lives in Auckland, New Zealand, commenting on the original article, said: “It makes for very grim reading and was far worse than I remember my mother ever talking about. I know my mother found my grandmother dead in the park and for anyone, let alone an 11-year-old to find someone in the condition that was reported must have been absolutely horrendous.”
He added: “It is one of those stories that you think must be made up, especially as I am drawing on childhood memories from over 20 years ago. Also my own mother died when I was 14 and I have no other known relatives from her side of the family. But I remember her telling me that is what happened.”
He continued: “It seems like it was a pretty miserable time for my mum back then. She was only 11 when her mother was killed and when the war started her father took her to Devon where he came from. In 1943 her grandfather was killed in a bombing raid on Torquay by the Germans. In the same raid a bomb was dropped on a nearby church killing 20 children at a Sunday school service. And we think we have it tough today.”
Ian has been trying to piece together memories of his mother and said: “I am hoping that someone may be able to give me more information surrounding this event or if anyone knew my grandmother or my mother. My grandfather’s name was Ernest Charles Cribbett.”
The violent storm, in what up to that point had been a mostly cool and changeable summer, brought flooding to areas around the town and several properties were struck by lightning. Whole chimney stacks were brought crashing to the ground when houses in Selborne Road and Courtland Avenue were hit. Another resident in Woodlands Avenue, Ilford, described the moment before their chimney stack crashed into their living room. “There was a blinding flash and a great crash. We thought the house was going to cave in on us: it seemed as though a bomb had dropped on it.”
The storm also affected the Barkingside area. As the rain fell in torrents a chimney stack on two houses in Tomswood Hill was struck by what an occupant of the house described as a “ball of fire that crashed on to the roof and came zig-zagging though the front room and out of the scullery door”. Elsewhere in London severe flooding in Ealing is mentioned in The Times. And large hailstones were reported in Surrey.
Rainfall in thunderstorms varies greatly – and this storm was no exception. Met Office rainfall data from the day shows that Loxford Park, the closest rainfall station to Valentines Park about a mile to the south-east, recorded 30mm – almost double that of City of London Cemetery, just over 1.5 miles to the north-west of the storm’s centre, which recorded 15.7mm. In view of the rain and the lightning strikes which happened less than a mile away, across the River Roding, Wanstead had a lucky escape that day.
While researching this I found it strange that local memory of the incident is very vague. The oldest generation of my family, a few of whom lived off Ilford Lane, cannot recall the incident though I believe quite a few had already moved out of London as part of the evacuation before the Second World War. Perhaps it is also possible that while this incident by today’s standards is horrific it pales into comparison with what was to come just over a year later with the start of the Blitz in September 1940 – which would result in the loss of thousands of lives in the East End and across the UK.
The disaster in Valentines Park equalled the number of deaths of those under a tree on Wandsworth Common in 1914.
Other deaths caused by lighting in London include two women who were killed while walking in Hyde Park in September, 1999.
According to TORRO, the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation, about 30-60 people are struck by lightning each year in Britain of whom, on average, three may be killed. You can read further on lightning impacts and safety tips to avoid getting struck here. The Met Office also features a page of lightning advice.
I would like to thank Redbridge Central Library for their help in accessing the archives for this piece. And to Mike Ashworth who kindly gave permission to use the superb newspaper bills montage. You can see Mike’s work at his Flickr site. Thanks also to the Met Office.
Often with a change of month comes a change of weather. And weather models this morning suggest this phrase will hold true.
Looking back over the last ten years August has been the wettest summer month on five occasions. Given that June rainfall was just 38% of average and July rainfall currently (as I write this on 25th) just 28% of average, it is not surprising that August could potentially be the wettest summer month.
The Atlantic looks like it will have cranked back into action by the first week of August bringing us a period of more unsettled weather – a more mobile westerly flow which means cooler conditions than we experienced during most of July.
The first week looks the most unsettled – no huge rainfall totals though there will be rain or showers around, some of them potentially thundery. Temperatures in the low 20s – though up to 25C on any brighter days.
The second week could start quite thundery with potential for a heavy downpour. After this I would expect the Azores high to ridge northwards settling down the weather to give possibly the best weather of the month during the third week – temperatures still in the low to mid 20s with lots of sunshine around and cool nights.
As the high pressure shifts, bringing a more east or south-easterly flow, days could become briefly very warm at the start of the fourth week. However the high pressure could start to drift north as the wider pattern begins to respond to a very active US hurricane season. Though it is a long way off all that extra energy in the Atlantic will begin to feed through to us at the end of the month, turning things unsettled again in time for the August Bank Holiday. September could be very wet indeed.
So in summary the buzzword for August is average overall with decent sunny summer’s days coupled with the odd rainy or showery day. No return of the heatwave – but also not the washout of the last few summers.
Average max temp: 22.5C (normal)
Average min temp: 12.5C (slightly below normal)
Rainfall: 57mm (normal) – this estimated total could be quite conservative in the event of any potent thunderstorms
It was the storm that preceded the hottest day of the year when the temperature briefly touched 34C in Wanstead – that’s higher than the official recognised figure of 33.5C at Heathrow and Northolt.
Earlier people all around town and across the country wilted in the heatwave waiting for news on the royal sprog, many of them ignorant that things were about to go bang. But no matter – it’s days like this they say is good to bury bad news – so the weather, it seems, decided to get in on the act too. The first spots of rain fell on an exhausted crack Sky News commentary team outside Buckingham Palace just before midnight. About the same time reports started coming in of thunder in Canning Town and Poplar – but all went quiet after three flashes. Then 11.58pm reports of rain in Luke Howard’s old haunt – Plaistow. My own ride back from town saw reasonably heavy, if somewhat shortlived, rain in Southwark. Yet by the time I reached Aldgate the ground was dry. Things began to liven up again at 1.30am – distant rumbles of thunder getting closer – further reports of multiple thunder, lightning and heavy rain with hail mixed in at 1.45am. Then, bang, the storm hit Wanstead. I failed to get any footage of the event because of the ambient light washing out every shot. Multiple crashes of loud thunder followed by, at one point, dazzling lightning flashes. You know how close a storm is by counting the seconds between lightning and peal of thunder. At 1.51am I barely counted to one between a dazzling flash and one of the loudest cracks of thunder I’ve heard. Only 6.5mm of rain was recorded, though this fell at a rate of 60mm/hr – the highest rate since I put the meteo live online last November. It doubled the previous highest rate! There followed frequent, distant rumblings of thunder to the east along with copious flashes and occasional bursts of rain. Epping recorded 19mm in two storms at 5am and 6.30am. The thunder and oppressive humidity made sleep difficult. And judging by the number of bleary eyes on the school run this morning I wasn’t alone. The were other storms around London and the UK – a notable one in Brixton precipitated this account on Brixton Buzz. And Steve Brice managed to capture the lightning in Gillingham, Kent. Pershore in Worcestershire recorded over 56mm of rain in 3 hours while lightning damaged rail networks. It was one of the most dazzling displays I can remember – certainly the best since probably 2000 if not before. People often ask me what first got me interested in the weather. Until last night I’d almost forgotten that thunderstorms were one of the main attractions. A night to remember – just like the overnight storms in the Eighties I remember as a lad. Scott Whitehead @wanstead_meteo http://www.wansteadweather.co.uk with thanks to @loveloughtonfor storm updates The following charts show the cell well. The 2mb pressure drop, the 60mm/hr rainfall rate, the 2C dive in temperature, and the sudden gust of wind This pressure drop is also reflected in the temperature fall at the same time: 2C in a matter of minutes.
Remember the time when most local parks had a lido – or at least a kiddies paddling pool?
Growing up in the area I remember being spoilt for choice for an outdoor swim – Valentines park, Barking park, Leys, and Larkswood to name a few. Barking, thanks to a lottery grant, has recently reopened as a ‘splash park’. All very nice – but its not a proper lido.
When Valentines park pool closed in 1994 there was outrage that yet another of London’s once grand leisure facilities was going the same way as many other lidos which closed in the seventies and eighties. A petition to retain the pool signed by over 2,000 people fell on deaf ears – the powers that be unwilling to finance repairs that were estimated at £250k. The 150ft by 50ft H. Shaw-designed facility was demolished at a cost of £26k in 1995.
I’d never thought about the background behind Valentines pool until I chanced upon some info. The idea of a swimming pool in the park was first proposed in July 1923, at an estimated cost of £7,700. The council at that time, however, decided against this proposal and recommended that such an open air swimming pool be built as part of the scheme for the new High Road baths. However, in October 1923 a revised estimate of £5,500 for a pool in the park was submitted and it was decided to that work could be provided for local unemployed during the winter of 1923/24 in conjunction with the Unemployed Grants Committee. In December 1923 sanction to apply for the loan was received from the Ministry of Health and work commenced on the old gravel pit. The swimming pool was officially opened to the public on Saturday, August 2, 1924.
Perhaps this could be the way forward for a new pool – utilise the unemployed to dig in for a cooler summer? In the event and with advances in earth moving machinery I would doubt this would be politically possible to implement. But with lottery funding, council leadership and public will – surely it is possible?
A design sympathetic with the Grade II landscape on the Register of Parks and Gardens of Special Historic Interest, that hosts the excellent Valentines Mansion, would surely be a vote winner for any local politician. Rather than a knee-jerk reaction to the heatwave which has seen temperatures widely exceed 30C the past four days this is a genuine appeal to Redbridge and other local authorities to at least consider bringing back these facilities that used to be widely enjoyed by the masses, many of them affordable or even free of charge.
They don’t have to be expensive white elephants – the few lidos that were spared the axe or have reopened, such as the London Fields lido which reopened in 2006, are well-run facilities that are used all year round. Anyone who’s tried to use a public swimming pool recently, indoors or out, would know that demand often seems to outstrip supply – just the other week I had to abandon plans to visit the brilliant new Dagenham indoor pool because the waiting time was too long, much to the disappointment of my 6-year-old daughter.
Legend has it that the weather on Monday will be the same for the next 40 days.
St Swithun’s day, if thou dost rain,
For forty days it will remain;
St Swithun’s day, if thou be fair,
For forty days ’twill rain na mair.
St Swithun’s Day is probably among the most well known of weather folklore – but, taken at face value, it is probably the most unreliable.
Since 1961 Wanstead has enjoyed 29 dry St Swithun’s Days (56%). From these the longest dry spell that followed was just 18 days, in 2000. On average, if St Swithun’s is dry, the weather stays fair for five days, with rain arriving on the 20th.
Another interesting observation is that the 40-day period that followed a dry St Swithun’s is on average 13% WETTER than if it rained on July 15th.
So what does this mean for the rest of July and the summer? Looking back at other years that have seen a dry and warm pattern in the run up to St Swithun’s Day we should see a continuation of the dry, warm and sunny conditions, perhaps with a thundery breakdown arriving on the 27th.
Putting superstition and singularities aside current weather models back this up, also suggesting an extended period of dry weather lasting well into July. However, the latest jet stream forecast this evening suggests a period of unsettled weather, ie rain, on… 27th. We shall see.
St Swithun was born around 800AD and died on July 2, 862, at Winchester, Hampshire. According to historians he was fond of building churches in places where there were none. St Swithun, who was bishop of Winchester, was buried in the churchyard of the Old Minster at Winchester, where passers by might tread on his grave and where the rain from the eaves might fall on it.
His reputation as a weather saint is said to have arisen from the translation of his body from this lowly grave to its golden shrine within the cathedral, having been delayed by incessant rain for 40 days.
The basis of the St Swithun’s saying follows the fact that by July 15th summer weather patterns are already well established and tend to persist through the coming weeks.
In meterological terms the position of the frontal zone around the end of June to early July, indicated by the position of the jet stream, determines the general weather patterns (hot, cold, dry, wet) for the rest of the summer. Like a little stream in its bed, the frontal zone tends to ‘dig in’ shortly after the summer solstice.
As the path of our weather systems is controlled by the jet stream, a more southerly location of the frontal zone – as happened last year – is likely to bring unsettled, wet and cool weather. On the other hand, a frontal zone shifted further to the north – as is happening this year – will help the Azores high to build over western Europe, thus bringing dry and pleasant weather to the UK.
Other western European countries also have similar St Swithun’s day sayings – that follow the principle rule. In France they say ‘Quand il pleut a la Saint Gervais Il pleut quarante jours apres’ – If it rains on St. Gervais’ day (July 19th), it will rain for fourty days afterward.
In Germany the Siebenschlaefer or seven sleepers day (July 7th, after the Gregorian calendar) refers to the weather patterns of the following seven weeks.