How cold will November end?

Twitter and other forums have been at fever pitch with excitement for a ‘nailed-on’ cold spell. 

But with many getting carried away over tales of a repeat of March’s ‘Beast from the East’ it is important to remember that snow in November is extremely rare in the south-east; despite predictions of the incoming upper air being very cold the ground is still very warm and will take time to cool.

However, as seen in November 1993, a week of hard frosts were enough to chill the ground enough for a decent week-long cold spell. Similarly, although the snow didn’t arrive in London until December, November 2010 was also cold enough.

The weather of late has been in an ‘average mood’ with the mean temperature in September and October both finishing at 0.2C below. The mean for the this month is currently (on the 15th) running 1.8C above average, therefore for the mean to finish the same as September / October would require a big cool down, as hinted by the models.

Will we see another an average, 1993 or a 2010 end to the month. My hunch is it will be something between the three.

Below is a graph that shows this November so far with average, 1993 and 2010 ends.
2018: 0.4
1993: -0.8
2010: -1.4

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East London’s highs and lows of the last 60 years

The chart below shows every maximum and minimum temperature recorded in this area since January 1st 1959, some 21,860 days!

The extremes range from -12.7C recorded on January 31st 1972 to 37.5C on August 10th 2003.

After peaking in 2003, summer maxima seems to be in decline. Winter minima, by comparison, has been increasing since 2012

maxmin

October 2018: average and rather sunny

October was most notable for the amount of sunshine. Some 136 hours were recorded, that’s 127 per cent of average, the sunniest October for six years.

The mean temperature finished 11.6C, 0.2C below average, the same anomaly as September. And 1.6C cooler than October last year.

Some 52.1mm of rainfall was recorded, 78 per cent of the 1981-2010 average, the wettest October for four years.

To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

October 2018 max.JPG