A blog that tries to make sense of how the UK's national climate translates into local weather for Wanstead and the surrounding regions of east London and west Essex.
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This winter since the turn of the year has been remarkably snowy for locations above 500m. Which, in the UK, means few of us would have noticed.
A pattern of predominant SE’ly winds feels like it has been locked in for weeks and has brought endless rain to many parts of the country. And much snowfall, particularly above 500m.
The Scottish Highlands have been the main beneficiary. And, looking at data on the RoostWeather site, there has been quite a sharp gradient in the decrease of mean temperature. Epic snow drifts on NW facing slopes have resulted in large avalanches. One frequent visitor to the Cairngorms said it is the deepest snow he has seen in 60 years.
Below is a number of GIFs that illustrate snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere during the late winter of 1947.
This part of the British Isles saw snow cover from late January to mid March. The animation suggests there was snow cover in the London area for an astonishing 51 consecutive days.
A superb account of this fabled winter can be found here.
The opening week or so of 2026 has already seen 30 per cent of frost hours recorded locally in an average year.
The temperature at the site in Wanstead has been -0.1C or lower for nearly 64 hours, already more than half of what was recorded here in the whole of 2020.
The mean for January is currently 1.1C, 4.1C below average. It’s also been a wet start with 28mm of rain, 53 per cent of the whole month average.
While there’s been colder starts to a year continuous data that allows this kind of analysis only stretches back to 2014 on this site.
There’s been some very interesting output on the weather models these past couple of days – not least the GFS’s dew points from Christmas Day into Boxing Day.
Very cold air from the east can be seen moving toward the SE of the UK to just across the North Sea – one run has the dew point down to -20C!
The outcome will be different but it’s been a fair while since I’ve seen this sort of solution in what is a relatively short timeframe.
This winter is looking mild or very mild overall with slightly above average rainfall.
This year I’ve added to my previous method of forecasting by also considering the 12-month rolling rainfall statistics on November 30th together with the January-November mean anomalies.
This gave the following list.
Thus, in terms of chances:
Above average
>6.2
46%
Average mean (C)
5.2-6.2
36%
Below average
<5.2
18%
And for rainfall:
>125%
195
18%
Average (mm)
156.1
64%
<75%
117
18%
The ‘line of best fit’ appears to be the winter of 2003/04 which, after a cold snap in late December that delivered a maximum snow depth of 7cm on December 29th, it turned out to be yet another mild winter.
Back in the days of proper winters folk had it hard, especially those living in the Cairngorms. And probably none more so than Bob Scott who experienced more than his fair share of severe weather.
Reading Adam Watson’s fascinating memoir of his time with the legendary Bob Scott o’ the Derry I picked up this fascinating account of the time he had to hand over navigation to his horse, Punchie, to guide them home through a blizzard in January 1952.
Watson writes on his conversation with Scott: “…it was the worst storm I’ve ivver been oot in, on my wey hame fae the Linn in the aifterneen. The drift came on sae thick I couldna see the horse’s heid as I sat on the sledge. I couldna have got hame if it hadna been the horse”.
A gale battered his face with suffocating drift. He judged that he must be near the Derry wood, but the storm now became violent. He had to turn his head away and let Punchie take over. Suddenly the gale dropped and the drifting stopped as a dark wall loomed yards away, the lodge wood! Snow still fell thickly, but he had shelter and knew where he was. Punchie had come right to the narrow gap where the road entered the wood.
Watson’s book It’s a Fine Day For The Hill is a beautiful memoir packed with anecdotes of his life in and around the Highlands.
The route from Inverey to Luibeg, the ‘most beautiful part of the Cairngorms’
Wanstead Meteo 
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