Hours of frost

Frost is a rare beast this year, even in the Wanstead Park frost hollow.

So far this year I’ve recorded just 82.5 hours where temperatures at 4ft (1.2m) were -0.1C or below. That’s just 37 per cent of what is recorded in an average year. And would suggest that frosts in December will be above average.

The lack of frost this year is even more remarkable given that the past seven years, especially the winters, have been so mild.

A closer look at the data shows that winter months are no guarantee of seeing temperatures fall below freezing. The record mild December 2015 and February 2014 are testament to that.

The fact that January 2017 looks the most remarkable month for frost reveals just how mild recent years have been.

Cathedrals of snow

Snow is ever present in the UK in most years though you have to look hard to find it in high summer.

A dedicated group of enthusiasts, led by Iain Cameron, chart and catalogue these snow patches – many of which are hidden or only seen as distant white dots during Scottish Highland walks.

Responding to an appeal in September I met up with Iain and other volunteers to chart the patches in Observatory Gully on Ben Nevis, the UK’s tallest mountain.

Our route up in the shadow of the magnificent north face of the Ben was a warm one; to our left a procession of ant-like figures were tracking the CMD arrete route to the summit, walkers making the most of the amazing weather.

The North Face path up to the Ben was easy to follow under clear blue skies. My previous visits to the fogged-in summit required map and compass.

Out of the sunshine it was noticeably colder in Observatory Gully; being north facing it sees very little of the sun even in mid June, slowing down the rate of melt of the snow which can be tens of feet thick by the end of the snowfall season. Being encased in snow for so long obviously has a chilling effect on the rock.

The walk up on the scree was hard work and I was surprised to see so many debris including parts of large parts of old galvanised chimney cowls, the legacy of the observatory that once sat proudly on top of the Ben. Not many people trek this way, being a bit of a cul-de-sac. To reach the 1,345m summit from here requires a 200m climb at the end.

As we edged higher the dot of snow grew ever larger and is surprisingly big by the time we reached it, Iain was surprised how hard the snow was. From Iain’s reports, published in the Royal Meteorological Society’s Weather magazine, I’d been fascinated by the images of the patches with naturally carved tunnels underneath them; the light inside the ‘cave’ has a gorgeous blue hue to it.

The light inside the snow patch has a gorgeous blue hue to it. It is understandable why so many are drawn to these ‘cathedrals of snow’.

It was at this moment that I realised that this was a large part of the draw of tracking these patches; a fascination with snow in an area where the odds of it existing all year round seem to be forever diminishing.

At the start of Observatory Gully the snow patch is a tiny dot.
On closer inspection the snow patch is a few dozen feet across and is far bigger than it looks from the valley.

Seasons of melt and snowfall

Snow has only vanished entirely in Scotland six times. Three of these occasions were in 2003, 2006 and 2017.

Mean temperature statistics from Cairngorm Summit show just how much the seasons can vary. Of course mean temperature is just one variable that affects snow survival rates. For example the Western Highlands saw huge amounts of snow fall in February and March above 300m, a factor that would have helped snow survive. Though the most recent melt season was 0.4C cooler than 2019 there was probably a far greater volume of snow.

* Because of the unreliable nature of mountain-top records the Met Office data for Cairngorm Summit has some large gaps, it is only the last 5 years that have complete records . I discounted any years that were missing more than 5% of data.

Record rainfall in October 2020

The wettest October since at least 1797 was recorded last month with some 159.2mm collected, 238 per cent of average.

The month started wet with the daily October rainfall record also broken with 49.1mm on the 2nd, the wettest day ever recorded in the UK.

With all that rain sunshine was at a premium; the 51.6hrs recorded was the second lowest October total since 1881. Only 1894 was duller.

The monthly mean was 11.7C, 0.1C below average.

Does any of the above have any bearing on what we can expect this winter? Possibly, but there are so many variables to consider.

Looking at rainfall patterns alone would suggest mean temperatures in November being a degree cooler than average and December broadly average.

Rainfall in November average while December is slightly below.