Weather

Hours of thunder on June 23, 2026

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I noticed the first drops of rain from this event riding back over Wanstead Flats from the Holly Tree around 10pm, thoughts of Messi’s majesty in Argentina’s win against Austria fast being replaced by watching clouds bubbling overhead.

Reaching home the drops didn’t come to much and I wondered if the action would miss us, like so many damp squibs in the past.

Nevertheless, I closed the roof windows and sure enough the first heavy rain arrived at 0130. And rumbled on and off for another four hours. It reminded me of the overnight storms that were so common in the 1980s.

Some 36.8mm fell, the greatest June downpour at this station for 10 years. This month’s rainfall total now stands at 93mm, 181% of average, the wettest June for 10 years and 7th wettest back to 1960.

It feels strange that the storm happened 10 years almost to the minute of the Brexit deluge of 2016.

Radar from the storm can be found at this link.

Weather

The Brexit deluge, 10 years on

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It’s 10 years tonight that this station recorded over 60mm of rain in 24 hours.

It remains the largest daily fall at this station since records began in 1960.

Rainfall rates touched over 60mm/hr during the early hours of June 23rd.

The closest station at the waterworks at Redbridge Roundabout recorded a similar amount.

The next closest official station, St James’s Park, recorded only 46mm, illustrating how varied rainfall can be over a small area.

The rainfall during the event was around three times heavier than the deluge on June 2nd.

Weather

The magic 500m snow line

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This winter since the turn of the year has been remarkably snowy for locations above 500m. Which, in the UK, means few of us would have noticed.

A pattern of predominant SE’ly winds feels like it has been locked in for weeks and has brought endless rain to many parts of the country. And much snowfall, particularly above 500m.

The Scottish Highlands have been the main beneficiary. And, looking at data on the RoostWeather site, there has been quite a sharp gradient in the decrease of mean temperature. Epic snow drifts on NW facing slopes have resulted in large avalanches. One frequent visitor to the Cairngorms said it is the deepest snow he has seen in 60 years.

A look at the map below reveals thus.

SummitHeightMean
Cairngorm1244m-4.2C
Cairnwell933m-2.4C
622m-0.6C
518m0C
London weather, Weather

Winter 1947: 51 consecutive days of lying snow across London and SE

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Below is a number of GIFs that illustrate snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere during the late winter of 1947.

This part of the British Isles saw snow cover from late January to mid March. The animation suggests there was snow cover in the London area for an astonishing 51 consecutive days.

A superb account of this fabled winter can be found here.

London weather, Weather

Hours of frost

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The opening week or so of 2026 has already seen 30 per cent of frost hours recorded locally in an average year.

The temperature at the site in Wanstead has been -0.1C or lower for nearly 64 hours, already more than half of what was recorded here in the whole of 2020.

The mean for January is currently 1.1C, 4.1C below average. It’s also been a wet start with 28mm of rain, 53 per cent of the whole month average.

While there’s been colder starts to a year continuous data that allows this kind of analysis only stretches back to 2014 on this site.

Climate of London, London weather

2025 averages in Wanstead

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The mean temperature for 2025 finished 12.2C, 0.2C above the most recent 10-year average and just 0.01 warmer than 2024.

The average maximum finished 16.7C, 0.5 above average and 0.6C up on 2024.

The average minimum finished 7.7C, 0.1C below average and 0.8C down on 2024.

There were 42 air frosts, 9 above average and the most for four years.

Annual rainfall totalled 458.4mm, 73% of average. It was the driest for 22 years and 4th driest in a local series going back to 1960.

Average 9am pressure was 1017.1mb, the highest for 10 years.

Christmas Day weather, Weather

Ice spear from the east

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There’s been some very interesting output on the weather models these past couple of days – not least the GFS’s dew points from Christmas Day into Boxing Day.

Very cold air from the east can be seen moving toward the SE of the UK to just across the North Sea – one run has the dew point down to -20C!

The outcome will be different but it’s been a fair while since I’ve seen this sort of solution in what is a relatively short timeframe.

An evolution can be seen here. https://x.com/i/status/2002803776395325837

Winter forecast

London winter forecast 2025/26

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This winter is looking mild or very mild overall with slightly above average rainfall.

This year I’ve added to my previous method of forecasting by also considering the 12-month rolling rainfall statistics on November 30th together with the January-November mean anomalies.

This gave the following list.

Thus, in terms of chances:

Above average>6.246%
Average mean (C)5.2-6.236%
Below average<5.218%

And for rainfall:

>125%19518%
Average (mm)156.164%
<75%11718%

The ‘line of best fit’ appears to be the winter of 2003/04 which, after a cold snap in late December that delivered a maximum snow depth of 7cm on December 29th, it turned out to be yet another mild winter.

Weather

First frost of winter 2025/26

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The first air frost of the winter has just been recorded in Wanstead, the earliest for four years, though only 9th earliest in the last 13.

It is the 31st air frost of the year which is now two short of the annual average. Here’s a look at previous years back to 1960.

A large part of the UK, away from the coast, looks like it’s also below freezing. As of 2200 Benson is the coldest low-lying station, reporting -3.3C.

Meteorology-based musings about east London and beyond