Category Archives: Weather

In the tracks of Luke Howard

The tow paths along the river Lea have provided generations of Londoners a place to escape – the route coming into its own following the legacy of London 2012 and the creation of the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park.

bryant
The river Lea near the Bow flyover is roughly where Luke Howard’s chemical factory was situated

It also provided a means for Luke Howard’s commute to work when he moved his family from Plaistow to Tottenham in 1812.

Seven years earlier Howard set up his pharmaceutical laboratory on the banks of the Lea in the area where Bow flyover now stands. From this vantage point, as the factory produced chemicals including quinine, Howard kept a meticulous record of the atmosphere later publishing results in The Climate of London, among the first texts to discuss urban meteorology.

Development in the region was in its infancy and it would be years before the river banks became covered by factories and warehouses, these now fast making way for luxury flats and restaurants.

canal1`
The river is lined with canal boats, breweries, old factories, residential development and street art

I’ve often wondered what his journey to and from the factory was like so on Tuesday, tempted out by cloudless skies and a warm 23C I grabbed my bike and headed to the Olympic Park. Despite numerous visits I still got lost in the myriad paths in the park, turning into dead ends and finding myself on the ‘wrong side’ of canals.

Anyone familiar with Bow Flyover will know it’s not the most inspiring place; it probably represents the low point of the way north.

It was at this point in 1809 that Howard noted that the river had swelled to a width beyond a mile wide. Five years later Howard also noted how the Lea had become choked with ice following a bitterly cold winter, the year the last Thames’ Frost Fair was held.

anchor
Anchor and Hope: a good spot to stop for a pint

As you ride north the familiar sites of the Olympic Park hove into view on the right while, if you look left, beyond the cacophony of the A12, the old Bryant & May match factory can be seen. Opened in 1861 the factory, which was one of the first east London renewal projects to feature luxury flats, is yet another landmark that simply wasn’t there in Howard’s time.

Just after Old Ford locks is a canal that turns left. This ‘cut’, called the Hertford union canal or Duckett’s canal, was in the process of being dug when in July 1829 lightning during a thunderstorm killed three workers. Howard, in one of many weather-based accounts in the The Climate of London, takes up the story:

A tremendous storm of thunder and lightning broke upon the metropolis about 1 o’clock on Saturday morning. The sky had been lighted up the whole evening by vivid electrical flashes and so late as half past twelve the stars were visible when a dark cloud suddenly arose and in a few minutes one of toe heaviest showers of rain and hail ever witnessed fell in torrents from its bosom.

Peals of thunder soon followed and continued rolling with scarcely any intermission for upwards of two hours accompanied with awful bursts of lightning; the residents of Bow, Stratford and Bromley were thrown into the greatest consternation by the violence of the storm, one poor fellow lost his life and two others have been so severely injured that but faint hopes are entertained of their recovery.

The three sufferers Sullivan, Salter and Fitzpatrick were engaged in excavating a canal, at present constructing by Sir George Duckett at Old Ford, and were at half past two o’clock diligently employed in their work when the storm commenced. Sullivan was at once struck lifeless and Fitzpatrick and Salter were so seriously injured as to make it necessary to procure immediate medical attendance.

Fitzpatrick was removed to his lodgings at Bow where he was attended by Dr Fairhead who on examining his person found that his left side had been most seriously injured and that there was reason to believe his intestines had suffered severely from the shock. The damage which Salter sustained has not been of so serious a nature.

Deaths caused by lightning were a much more common occurrence in the 19th century, mostly because so many people worked outside and the dangers of this natural phenomenon were not well document. The thunderstorm in July 1829 was particularly severe, as Howard continues:

During the continuance of the lightning on Friday evening a man who was employed in pumping in Bethnal Green fields which the late heavy rains have flooded was struck by a sudden flash which caused his instantaneous death.

The clothes exhibited a singular appearance being literally torn to atoms and every part of the metal in his buttons had the appearance of having been fused. The body itself showed no traces of the electric fluid with the exception of a slight mark on the forehead.

As you cycle on the factories / flats gradually thin out until you reach Lea Bridge Road when Leyton and Walthamstow Marshes become visible on the right. The big skies probably the same as they were during the 19th century. On reaching Tottenham Hale it is time to leave the river and turn left toward the town centre.

bruce
7 Bruce Grove, Tottenham.

A total of 6 miles later brings you to Howard’s family home, 7 Bruce Grove. It still stands but, despite having a blue plaque, is in a terrible state of repair – internal walls have collapsed and the roof is clearly porous. The owners have a plan to turn the building into flats but nothing has happened in years. A petition to save the building was set up a while ago but this, too, seems to have had little impact.

Howard and his family divided their time between here and Ackworth, Yorkshire. I’ve known about 7 Bruce Grove for years but I didn’t realise just how long the garden was, stretching back hundreds of feet.. It was here that Howard also kept a weather station and was the venue for his account of the partial solar eclipse in 1820.

monkey
The monkey puzzle tree

There is precious little left of the original garden, it being overgrown with bramble, nettles and alder. I did notice a tall money puzzle tree which I wonder once had pride of place in one of the borders.

Because of the dense undergrowth and it being behind a large wall there is precious little you can see but I wonder if there is any evidence of Howard’s meteorological enclosure somewhere in the garden?

It would be a fitting tribute Luke Howard if any future development would allow the provision of a weather station somewhere on the property.

rear
The rear of 7 Bruce Grove, Tottenham

 

w marshes
Walthamstow Marshes were flooded to a depth so great that many trees briefly disappeared

When the River Lea turned into an inland sea

It is 194 years ago this week that the River Lea burst its banks in the Stratford area leading to an ‘inland sea’ forming on nearby marshland.

Days of heavy rain that started on the 12th sent the water rising to record levels, the height was 2.5 inches higher than the devastating flood of 1809.

Luke Howard, in an entry in The Climate of London, had measured nearly three inches (74mm) of rain by the 16th and was expecting a flood:

“Towards evening the waters rose suddenly in the Lea and passing over all the banks of the level soon filled the marshes and in the course of the night rose to an unprecedented height being two inches and a half higher than in the flood of 1809.

The houses in the marshes south of the road were filled nearly to the chamber floors and some of the inmates removed with great difficulty. The flood remained stationary for nearly 24 hours. On the 17th in the afternoon it began very gradually to subside and on the 18th in the morning was much abated; the marshes still presenting the appearance of a sea the tops of the trees appearing in places only.”

Though there are no reanalysis charts from the time Howard’s daily entries state that pressure was low with the wind in the north-east, a classic pattern where depressions can move along the Channel before getting ‘stuck’ in the North Sea. A similar pattern with an almost identical amount of rain caused severe flooding in June 1903.

There was some 96mm of rain recorded during May 1824, locally the 11th wettest back to 1797. There have been wetter Mays since but, thanks to massive investment in the River Lea Navigation , prompted by more devastating floods in 1947, widespread flooding is a thing of the past.

w factory
The area around where Luke Howard’s factory once stood

 

w marshes
Walthamstow Marshes were flooded to a depth so great that many trees briefly disappeared

 

More hot air on bank holiday records

The media are up to their old tricks of flagging up their usual ‘hottest ever’ line; this time the May Day bank holiday.

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Today’s Guardian

Today’s Guardian informs readers that Monday could be the warmest ever May Day bank holiday, the quite unremarkable record high of 23.9C was set in 1999.

A closer look, however, reveals that dates of the holiday, which only began in 1978, are always moving. Like Easter the date shifts and can fall on any day between the 1st to the 8th. Only six early May bank holidays have occurred on the 7th. It is therefore difficult to compare like with like.

A more correct approach is to compare date records which, for the 7th since 1978, the highest is 27.1C in 2016. The highest temperature for the 7th going back 60 years is 28.5C in 1976.

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London’s May extremes since 1959

Ne’er cast a clout till May is out. With the recent March and April weather being so variable it would be wise to bear in mind this old saying, especially with fine and warm weather forecast for the Bank Holiday weekend.

A look at local east London stats, however, shows that seven of the last 10 Mays have been warmer and drier than average.

I’ve put together a few top 10s of stats for Wanstead, St James’s Park and Heathrow for the month of April.

Probably most notable from the below values is that recent Mays have been devoid of extreme cool temperatures and rainfall.

With nights now relatively short air frosts are uncommon though the odd ground frost can still strike on a clear night.

Snow can fall in May – one example being 1979 in the higher parts of the capital – but after the first week it is extremely rare.

Rain is usually most frequent in the last week of the month.

wanstead may

SJP may

heathrow may

 

 

 

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Some UK May values according to TORRO

Hottest: 22nd 1922: 32.8C at Camden Square, London.
Coldest: 2nd 1917: -9.4C at Lynford, Norfolk
Wettest: 8th 1884: 172.2 at Seathwaite, Cumbria

 

In terms of climatology May maxima, considering the 1981-2010 average, shows a gradual increase through the month, though around the 25th there is often a brief dip before a warm end.

The average rainfall graphic reflects this, showing a three-day wetter spell after the 24th.

max max

 

may rain

 

 

Geneva to London in 20 aerial photos

I took the following shots during a flight from Geneva to London on the morning of Thursday, April 19th – the hottest April day for at least 60 years.

19th
A large anticyclone brought temperatures far above average in many parts of Europe

Weather conditions on the BA CitiFlyer service to London City were virtually cloud free all the way thanks to a large anticyclone stationed almost slap bang over central Europe.

It was hard to stop looking out the window of the Embraer 190 from the moment we started our climb above the shores of Lac Léman, the Jet d’Eau the first landmark to become easily visible.

The rest of the flight offered a procession of chances to ‘guess the place’ as we crossed France, the Channel, and Kent before making our descent as we reached suburban south-east London.

Before take-off the pilot mentioned our final approach would offer a very close up view of The Shard and the event didn’t disappoint. It felt we were only metres above the 1,000ft high pinnacle, the spectacle drawing gasps from passengers sitting behind me; it was very reminiscent of the final approach to the old Kai Tak airport in Hong Kong.

Disembarking brought a further treat as I walked out into the unprecedented April heat, the 29.1C reached that day made it the hottest April day for at least 60 years.

taxiing geneva
One of the met enclosures at Genève Aéroport with the hills of the Jura in the background.
geneva fouintain
Lac Leman, Geneva, with the Jet d’Eau clearly visible
lac leman
As we climbed higher the Portes du Soleil mountains could be seen in the distance with the Mont Blanc Massif beyond
le gris nez
Le Gris Nez and Wissant on the coast of Pas de Calais, with the port in the background
dover white
The white cliffs of Dover
calais
Whitstable, Kent, just to the east of where the UK’s hottest temperature was recorded at Faversham
elmley
The Elmley National Nature Reserve on the Isle of Sheppey with Minster-on-Sea in the background
medway
The mouth of the Medway with the Isle of Grain on the left and Sheerness and Queenborough on the right
London Gateway
The London Gateway ‘superport’ with Canvey Island just to the right and Southend in the distance
tilbury
The port of Tilbury, Essex, on the north bank of the Thames with Gravesend on the other side
QE2 bridge
The Queen Elizabeth II bridge
sub se
Suburban SE London
dome
The 02 / Millennium Dome with Canary Wharf to the left
canary wharf
Canary Wharf
the city
The City
ruskin park
Ruskin Park, Denmark Hill, with Canary Wharf in the distance

 

shard
The Shard and London Bridge station. The aircraft is now very low and we feel very close to the building’s 1,000ft high pinnacle. Passengers behind me gasp and I am reminded of the final approach into Hong Kong’s old Kai Tak airport
tower
Tower Bridge and City Hall
canary close
Canary Wharf again but this time we’re a lot closer
o2
The o2, again
cable
The Emirates Airline / Thames cable car

 

 

April 2018: four seasons in one month

I normally headline these monthly reviews by referring to the most notable weather but this April, often a fairly non-descript mid-spring affair, offered pretty much every type of weather. bluebells

The mean temperature finished 11.7C, 1.9C above average and the warmest for four years.

Rainfall was 55mm, 129 per cent of average and the wettest for 6 years.

Sunshine was just 110 hours, the dullest for 40 years and the 16th dullest since 1881.

Hidden in the positive monthly anomaly was the warmest April day in a local record going back to 1959: 29.1C on the 19th – a figure that represents a positive anomaly of 15.5C and occurring at the start of the warmest April heatwave since 2011. It was remarkable that such an anomaly happened so close to a record negative anomaly the previous month.

Yet, just over a week later, temperatures lurched cold again with one of coldest last days of April on record. Though the 24hr record wasn’t broken the noon-6pm record going back 60 years was beaten.

The wettest day occurred on the 9th with 10mm falling.

Air frosts: 0, Ground frosts: 1

sunset 22nd

18th warmest

29.1

rainapril30
April 30th provided a timely reminder after the heatwave to ne’er cast a clout till May is out. A low pressure system in the North Sea brought a thoroughly miserable day though even more rain fell across the Channel.
april30
It was a month with some amazing sunsets. This one, on April 30th, happened just as the sky cleared before dusk

 

Two April heatwaves compared

The stats are in and the average maxima for the past few days’ heatwave is 1C lower than the hot spell in 2011: a positive anomaly of 10.6C over six days.

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Although this year’s spell pipped the previous April high temp by 0.2C, the 2011 spell saw slightly higher temperatures and were recorded in a month that finished 3.3C above average – the average for this April is likely to finish only 2C above average.

April 2011 also saw just 3.3mm of rain recorded. The rainfall so far this month is already at 36.7mm, with more likely before the end of the month.

The spell in 2011 saw 74 hours of sunshine in total while this spell only saw 58 hours.

In terms of this summer it is quite possible that we won’t see a week with higher maximum anomalies or more sunshine than we saw across the southeast this week. To give you any idea of just how anon. warm last week was here is what the equivalent temperatures would be at the end of July, on average the warmest time of the year.

25th 29.8
26th 35.4
27th 39.2 (102.6F)
28th 37.7
29th 32.1
30th 33.3

* The Met Office definition of a heatwave (the same as the WMO) states:  “When the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C, the normal period being 1961-1990”.

 

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The large anomalies of the past few days can be seen on this thermo trace

London’s April extremes since 1959

April showers bring spring flowers… so the saying goes though a look at local east London stats shows that eight of the last 12 Aprils have been drier than average, some remarkably so.

I’ve put together a few top 10s of stats for Wanstead, St James’s Park and Heathrow for the month of April.

Probably most notable from the below values is that 5 of the top 7 maxima were recorded during a warm spell in 2011.

Frosts can be common and are often sharp, playing havoc with budding plants

Snow can fall in April – a good few inches fell early in the month in 2008 – though any accumulation is usually short lived.

Rain – the characteristic April showers – is usually most frequent at the end of the month.

 

april updated 1959

SJP april

heathrow apr

 

The chart slideshow below show the synoptic situation which brought a notable warm spell in the second half of April 2011.

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Some UK April values according to TORRO

Hottest: 16th 1949: 29.4C at Camden Square, London.
Coldest: 2nd 1917: -15C at Newton Rigg, Cumbria
Wettest: 22nd 1970: 182.1mm at Seathwaite, Cumbria

In terms of climatology April maxima, considering the 1981-2010 average, shows a gradual increase through the month, though around the 21st there is often a jump of 3-4C, the start of a warm spell before rain arrives at month’s end.

The average rainfall graphic reflects this, showing a three-day drier spell after the 20th.

april max

april rain

 

 

 

 

 

March 2018: cold, some snow and very dull

Though March is usually, meteorologically speaking, the first month of spring this year it felt more like an extension of winter.
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This graph shows that the two visits from the “Beast From The East” were only enough to momentarily dent the average.

The mean temperature for March 2018 finished 6.3C, that’s 1.4C below the 1981-2010 average, the coldest for five years but still nearly 3C warmer than the exceptional March of 2013.

Some 61.5mm of precipitation fell, that’s 151 per cent% of average and the wettest for 10 years, pipping the wet March of 2016 by just 1.2mm. The 38th= wettest March since 1797.

 

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The wet end to the month is shown on this graph.
Perhaps most notable in this region was the lack of sunshine. There was just 59.1hrs recorded, that’s just 54 per cent of the 1981-2010 average. The dullest March since 1984 and, more notably, the 5th dullest March back to 1881!
Though there were no notable night frosts, the coldest night fell to just -3.8C, the cold pattern was enough to create three new entries in the top 10 of coldest March days in Wanstead and further afield in the capital.
With 6 more days of ‘snow lying at 9am’ winter 2017-18, the snowfall season stretches from October to May, was boosted up to 20th place on my snow index.
Summary for March 2018
Temperature (°C):
Mean (1 minute)  6.1
Mean (min+max)   6.3
Mean Minimum     3.0
Mean Maximum     9.6
Minimum          -3.8 day 01
Maximum          15.3 day 27
Highest Minimum  8.0 day 15
Lowest Maximum   0.5 day 01
Air frosts       5
Rainfall (mm):
Total for month  61.5
Wettest day      9.0 day 30
High rain rate   12.1 day 12
Rain days        20
Dry days         11
Wind (mph):
Highest Gust     24.4 day 08
Average Speed    3.2
Wind Run         2411.5 miles
Gale days        0
Pressure (mb):
Maximum          1032.3 day 20
Minimum          983.3 day 11
Days with snow falling         4
Days with snow lying at 0900   6
Total hours of sunshine        59.1
snow mar 1
19th march snowmar 3 tree eng thawmar 3 thawmar 2 snowmar 2 roadsmar 1 rada

‘So much for global warming…’

Since notably cold weather struck at the end of February I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve heard this phrase uttered by the public and some sections of the press.

Top 20 cold
Top 20 cold anomalies

The ‘Beast from the East’ (versions 1.0 and 2.0) really captured the imagination in an age where everything has to have a label slapped on it; any message that these cold spells are ‘weather’ and not ‘climate’ seems to get lost.

Both spells, indeed the general pattern of our late winter weather, were driven by the stratospheric sudden warming event that lead to a split polar vortex in February – leading to a very cold end to the month and a mean temperature anomaly of -2.5C, the greatest monthly anomaly since March 2013.

To put it into perspective, however, it was nothing like some of the anomalies that occurred in the early 19th century: January 1814, for example, saw a monthly anomaly of -8.2C and coincided with the last occasion a frost fair was held on the Thames. Januaries back then were generally very cold, the 1801-1831 average monthly mean was -3C, that’s 8C colder than the most recent 1981-2010 average!

So climate now is much warmer but that is not to say that anomalously cold months can’t happen. February 1986 saw an anomaly of -5.6C, the 13th= greatest cold anomaly in my local dataset going back to 1797.

top 20 warm
Top 20 warm anomalies

The cold December of 2010 recorded an anomaly of -4.2C, 76th= greatest cold anomaly, while anomalies of -4.1C recorded in January 1979 and March 2013 were 77th=.

With the warming climate it is no surprise that most warm months happened very recently. The balmy month of December 2015  saw a positive anomaly of 5.4C.

The ‘Beast from the East 2.0’ was caused by a narrow tongue of extremely cold air from Russia scoring a direct hit on the UK. The odds of this happening must have been low but it is an example of how, when the synoptics of the atmosphere line up perfectly, anything is possible.

And it is an example how even in a warming climate the UK can still be subject to anomalous cold and warmth at any time of the year.

As the author Mark Twain reportedly once said: “The climate is what you expect; the weather is what you get.”

gfs
The upper air anomaly of the ‘Beast from the East 2.0’. 
anom
This graphic shows positive and negative monthly anomalies since 1797 against a generally warming climate

Because the above graphic is crowded I created one of anomalies since 1970. The upward trend is the same.

1970

march 1st