All posts by wansteadmeteo

A blog that tries to make sense of how the UK's national climate translates into local weather for Wanstead and the surrounding regions of east London and west Essex. Check out my twitter feed @wanstead_meteo for local weather forecasts, stats, records and phenomena for the east London areas of Wanstead, Aldersbrook, Leytonstone and Stratford. And anything else weather

Events, History, Weather

Tragic London storm marked slide into WW1

May 31, 2014 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

Over the years significant weather events have, at least in my subconscience, at times signalled that something ‘big’ is about to happen – just one example being the Great Storm in October 1987 that was followed days later by the Black Monday stock market crash.

So an event that happened 100 years ago this month, to some, probably also brought a feeling of impending doom as the political situation in Europe became ever more fraught.

Account of the thunderstorm reported in The Times

A series of severe thunderstorms that broke out just after midday over south-west London on June 14, 1914, left people dead and a trail of destruction across areas south of the Thames. Fierce lightning, torrential rain, severe flooding and hail ‘the size of walnuts’ accompanied the storms. Six people were killed by lightning on Wandsworth Common and four others were injured. As with many thunderstorms the heaviest rain, 94mm in 3 hours at Richmond Park, was focused over a small area. South Kensington, just over 5 miles away, recorded just 6mm! I don’t have the figures for Wanstead but judging by the map published in the 1914 edition of British Rainfall it probable recorded even less than South Kensington.

Some reports by observers.

Dulwich: Violent hailstorms. Many hailstones were like acid tablets about one inch long, half an inch broad and over a quarter of an inch thick. A minute or two after these had fallen, a mist rose to a height of about 4ft above the ground.

Lewisham: A storm began at 12.24pm and came right overhead from the east with terrific flashes of lightning and loud thunder. At 12.31pm, rain fell with extraordinary fury; within 9 minutes 0.5 inches had fallen. The second storm came up just after 1pm, the lightning being even more severe. At 1.30pm, St Mark’s Church, and the Holy Cross were struck. A tree in Hither Green cemetery over 30ft high was splintered and two houses were struck at Catford. Another thunderstorm came up at 2.25pm with torrents of rain and hail as large as haricot beans fell for 5 minutes.

Rainfall in the London area - June 14, 1914 - shown in the publication British Rainfall — Rainfall in the London area – June 14, 1914 – shown in the publication British Rainfall

Richmond Park: Very severe storm passed over the house; an oak fence was struck by lightning in two places. Rainfall measurements were as follows: 1.80 inches in 45 minutes, 2.70 inches in 90 minutes, 3.2 inches in 2 hours, 3.60 inches in 2.5 hours, 3.70 inches in 2.75 hours.

Wimbledon Downs: There was a curious scene close to Kingston station, where the water was about 4ft feet deep at five o’clock and motor cars and omnibuses had to make a wide detour. The storm was especially severe in Wimbledon district, where, owing to the bursting of an overtaxed sewer, the District Railway line was submerged. At Tooting Junction station was a foot deep on the platform.

Judging by the 1881-1910 average 1914 was a warm year: the mean temperature of 10.7C was a full degree warmer than average. It was also 15 per cent wetter than average and the sun hours were nearly 108% of average. Of course by today’s standards (the 1981-2010 average) 1914 looks relatively cool as the average annual temperature has risen 1C in the past hundred years.

The weather on this day must have been synonimous with the deteriorating political situation in Europe: two weeks later Franz Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria, and his wife Sophie were assassinated in Sarajevo by a young Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip , the casus belli of the First World War.

What is fascinating is that a similar thunderstorm that left seven dead in Valentines Park, Ilford, 75 years ago this August, also happened about two weeks before Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain announced on September 3, 1939, that Britain was at war with Germany.

Continue reading Tragic London storm marked slide into WW1 →

Events, History, Weather

50 years of London heatwaves

May 16, 2014 wansteadmeteo 1 Comment

Ask a dozen people what they think is a heatwave in this country and you’ll probably get 12 different answers.

The view across to St Paul's Cathedral from Bankside at low tide by Scott Whitehead — The view across to St Paul’s from Bankside at low tide.

The UK press is always keen to tell us that a ‘heatwave is on the way’ – even if it is March and the heatwave in question brings temperatures no greater than the high teens Celsius.

Although in the UK there is no official definition of a heatwave the World Meteorological Organization description is “when the daily maximum temperature on more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C, the normal period being 1961-1990”. In other words that March heatwave would see the thermometer peak higher than 15.3C five days in a row. Pleasant enough – but no big deal.

The Met Office, working with the Department of Health, provides a ‘Heat-Health Watch System’ for England which is triggered when a threshold temperature in the South East is 31 °C by day and 16 °C overnight for at least two consecutive days.

I have vague memories of the weeks of sunshine in 1976 but the hot spells that stick in my mind the most are August 1990, when the UK temperature record was set in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, and August 2003 when an 8-day hot spell saw the all-time UK temperature record broken when 38.5C was reached at Brogdale, near Faversham, Kent.

Last July, when compared with the previous summers, saw some of the best summer weather since 2006. But where does last year compare with the good summers of 2003, 1995, 1990 and 1976? I decided to have a look back at the daily records for this area which stretch back to 1959.

I have drawn up a list of all days back to 1959 that have an average mean daily temperature of 23.5C or higher. This shows that there has been 93 such days. However, to qualify for the Met Office’s Heat-Health Watch System – ie two days like this in a row the list narrows. To make my job easier, I have narrowed the list further to 3 consecutive days where the mean has been 23.5C or higher. Though I loathe really hot weather in my experience I can put up with it for a couple of days. It is only when it gets to the third day of hot, sleepless nights that it starts becoming unbearable.

In terms of intensity and hours of sunshine, 2003 comes out on top. Though many people will argue that 1976 is more impressive -that summer, which comes in second, only produced two spells that satisfy my criteria. The first heatwave saw temperatures soar above 31C for six consecutive days from June 23. The start of the second, on July 3, saw Bjorn Borg win the first of five Wimbledon mens’ titles as he prevailed over Ilie Nastase in 35C heat.

The summer of 1995, which saw my driest-ever August with just 0.7mm of rainfall all month, comes in 3rd, with six days of mean temperatures of 23.5C or higher.

Polo advert for the heatwave that coincided with the Queen Mother's birthday in 1990 — Polo advert for the heatwave that coincided with the Queen Mother’s birthday in 1990

Looking at the data another way, ranking the average total daily mean temperature of each spell, sees 2003 again come out 1st, with August 1990 and July 1983, 2nd and 3rd. Looking back through history it is not really surprising that 2003 comes out on top. While it was hot in London the heatwave across the Channel contributed to the death of over 70,000 people throughout Europe, France being the most affected.

This weekend promises to be very warm and sunny but it will pale into insignificance compared with the hot spells of the past. The mean temperature on Saturday and Sunday is unlikely to exceed 17C.

Forecast, Weather

Summer forecast: barbecues and umbrellas

May 7, 2014 wansteadmeteo 3 Comments

At the beginning of May I had a look at the March and April stats to try to decipher what the coming summer would be like. The results still suggest that summer will be a mixed bag weather-wise with only brief hot spells interspersed with humid thundery breakdowns and cool, cloudy and showery regimes.

The third warmest March-April period since 1799 possibly prompted some weather ‘experts’ to claim that we’re heading for a hot summer. But converse to what the Daily Express told us in April I cannot see any signs of a ‘hottest summer ever’. And it should be remembered that this rag also warned us that the past winter would see ‘100 days of snow’. In the event I think 100 days of rain was probably more true, and I would like to point out at this juncture that my own winter forecast was hopelessly out, along with many others.

To reach my conclusion on this summer I have used pattern matching of meteorological data for March, April and May stretching back to 1799. The mild and dry weather of March and April has been tempered by the wet May. The mean for the spring season was 11.7C with 116.4mm of rain and 473 hours of sunshine. If you take into account all years that were within +/- 10 per cent of these figures you get the following table.

When considering the data I first extracted the number of similar years by rainfall. Of these I then discounted any that were not within + / 10 per cent of the spring 2014 mean temperature.

The ‘best fit’ years were revealed as 1811, 1828, 1871, 1882, 1912, 1945, 1959 and 1989. Using sun hours similarities this could be narrowed further to 1912, 1945, 1959 and 1989, however it should be noted that I don’t have sun hours data prior to 1881!

As an average this summer could be expressed as:

Mean: 17.3C (about average) Rainfall: 186.1mm (slightly above average) Sunshine: 583hrs (slightly above average)

Or, expressed in probabilities, I concluded the following:

So from the above you could deduce that the next three months will be average to rather cool, with average to slightly below average rainfall. Sunshine below average.

Trying to predict details over the next 3 months is impossible, but looking at the ‘best fit’ years mentioned above a warm spell happened without fail between the dates June 18th – June 22nd. Other dates to bear in mind for possible fine spells are July 5th, July 12th-15th, July 22nd, August 4th and August 20th.

* Taking into account the fact that temperatures in London are up to 1C warmer than they were 100 years ago I have added 1C to mean temperatures before 1915.

** Obviously, in the event of a series of direct hits from thunderstorms, my rainfall estimate could be hopelessly short – a symptom of abundant solar energy at this time of year which creates a ‘noisy’ atmosphere compared with winter.

*** The 1981-2010 average mean for summer in this region is 17.6C, with 144.9mm of rain and 564 hours of sunshine

monthly summary, Weather

April 2014: Another mild and dry month

May 1, 2014 wansteadmeteo 3 Comments

April 2014 continued this year’s theme of being milder than normal; the mean temperature of 12C was 2.2C above average, making it the third warmest April since 1797.

Though many days were stunningly sunny the breeze made it feel chilly

April continued the dry theme of March and was indeed dryer on average. Just 19.6mm on rain fell over the 30 days – that’s 46 per cent of average.

The month saw some stunningly sunny days during the second week into the third week, though these were tempered by chilly east to north-easterly winds. The warmest day was the 21st when 21.5C was reached – the first ^70F temperature of the year.

Though it ‘felt’ quite a sunny month the 150 hours recorded was only 94 per cent of average.

Some nights were chilly when the sky cleared but there was no air frost and only two ground frosts, on the 15th and 16th

To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1cBRoH3

trees, Wanstead High Street, Weather, weatherlore

If the oak before the ash…

April 30, 2014 wansteadmeteo 1 Comment

…then we’ll only see a splash. If the ash before the oak then we’re sure to get a soak.

If this old weather saying carries any weight then this summer should be a corker…

This young ash on the corner of Montalt Road and Chingford Lane, Woodford Green, is much later into leaf than the adjacent oak

Only I wonder how many of the ash trees I noticed on my ride back from Enfield this afternoon are struggling to survive let alone burst into leaf. The initial onset of chalara fraxinea (ash dieback) over the past couple of years now seems to be taking its toll in a much bigger way on ash specimens around the countryside.

The tell tale dead branches are becoming a lot more common.

Some have blamed the spread of Chalara on cheap imports of ash trees from Holland – the first cases were confirmed in a nursery in Bucks early in 2012. Efforts were made to find and contain affected specimens but, throughout East Anglia and the South East, the disease seems out of control. It could be only a matter of time before the disease scars the landscape with dead trees in the same way that Dutch Elm Disease did in the 1970s.

From one poor management of trees to another – namely the ultra harsh pollarding of the London planes in Wanstead High Street. Whilst this style of management is nothing new and seems to be de rigeur among most London councils it does nothing for the scene of many roads and streets through the capital. What was once a rich canopy of green providing shady relief from the sun during high summer is just a few stumps. It takes a good few years for the canopies to regenerate – by which time it’s time for another visit from the tree surgeons…

Plane ugly: the harshly pollard planes in Wanstead High Street — Plane ugly: the harshly pollarded planes in Wanstead High Street

To blame, partly, is the spread of another tree pest – Massaria. This unseen pest ‘eats’ away the tops of branches – compromising the strength of the wood eventually to the point where, if unchecked, the whole limb comes crashing to the ground. London plane is very heavy wood – with branches weighing dozens of kilos there’s obviously safety issues with limbs dropping on peoples’ heads.

Though councils would argue otherwise I think the harsh pollarding is a cost saving measure – without this they would have the added cost of constant monitoring.

The fast-growing, non-native London plane was planted on the understanding that growth would be carefully managed and limited in height. But looking at some of the monster specimens around the capital that seems to have gone by the wayside a long time ago.

The City of London Corporation is well aware of the problem and is closely monitoring the capital’s stock.

If you have magnificent London plane near you make the most of it – the buzz of the tree surgeons’ chainsaws are getting closer.

Football, History, Liverpool FC, Weather

Kop this for a singularity

April 27, 2014 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

The last time Liverpool won the league in 1990 (by league I mean top tier of English football) the South East enjoyed a mostly dry, warm and sunny summer. A particularly hot spell in August of that year saw the UK high temperature record broken when the mercury reached 37.1C at Cheltenham on August 3rd, a record that stood until 2003.

Since the middle of December last year the weather has been remarkably similar to that football season when the Reds won their 18th league title. Both winters were remarkably mild and stormy with January 1990 seeing the Burns’ Day storm.

The mean temperature this year over the same period, December 13th to April 26th, is just 0.2C cooler than 1989-90, while rainfall is 2.1% greater and sunshine is 2.5% less. A remarkable singularity.

Will history repeat itself come the end of the season and the end of the summer? Up until early Sunday afternoon the stage seemed set. But a slip by Liverpool skipper Steven Gerrard at the end of the first half gifted Demba Ba with a chance that opened the way for Chelsea to complete the double over their title rivals.

LiverpoolSquad1989-1990 — The Liverpool squad of the 1989-1990 season won the club’s 18th league title

It must have been agonising for the Kop to watch, 24 years on from the exact same weekend the Reds lifted the title with two games left. The weather that followed that memorable day was dry, sunny and warm with temperatures reaching the mid 20s on many days.

Fast forward two dozen years and the weather looks decidedly unsettled, with frequent showers or longer spells of rain interspersed with sunshine. Though there’s doubtless many twists and turns left I wonder if Reds fans believe their title hopes are going the same way as the change in the weather?

Football’s a funny old game – just like the weather.

monthly summary, Weather

March 2014: Mild, dry and sunny

Aside April 1, 2014 wansteadmeteo 3 Comments

March 2014 will be most remembered for glorious sunny days that brought welcome relief after a run of seemingly endless wet months.

Pear blossom by Scott Whitehead — Many trees blossomed early this year, thanks to the mild winter

It also continued the mild theme of the winter; the mean temperature of 9.1C was 1.4C above average, making it the 11th warmest March since 1797. Looking at my other series back to 1881 the March mean maximum was second only to March 1938!

Just 25.8mm of rain fell over the 31 days – that’s 63 per cent of average.

The month started on the chilly side but with plenty of sun around it felt pleasant. Though many days were warm clear skies led to frost and fog forming. Hail was observed on three days.

The most notable weather occured on the 26th when the temperature fell from 10C at 1.30pm to 4C by 3pm. Heavy showers accompanied what was an utterly foul day. The cold pool persisted into the 27th with towering thunder clouds surrounding Wanstead, north, east and south – with reports of hail in Berkshire and snow in Folkestone.

The month ended with warm, sunny weather – the southerly flow bringing Saharan dust that deposited on cars. There were 4 air frosts and 14 ground frosts.

Saharan dust fall on car, by Scott Whitehead — A southerly airstream brought dust that originated from the Sahara Desert

To view full stats follow this link: http://1drv.ms/1cBRoH3

History, Weather

An unprecedented climate of confusing stats

March 1, 2014 wansteadmeteo 1 Comment

‘Worst-ever!’, ‘in living memory’, ‘highest on record!’, ‘unprecedented!’. These phrases, used often by newsreaders on the main networks including Sky and BBC, always set an alarm bell ringing in my head. None more so than weather stories which, with the stormy winter we’ve just had, has been happening almost daily since the middle of December.

As the winter has progressed the networks have tried to out do one another with the severity-value of a story. What starts with a reporter gingerly standing by the side of a flooded field within days changes to the reporter, donning a pair of fisherman’s waders, trawling waist-deep through a flooded Berkshire housing estate.

The media also seem to delight in rushing out Met Office data to proclaim these armageddon scenarios before the season is over and the statistics can be properly studied, absorbed and commented upon.

Last summer, I started to build a dataset for my own area – Wanstead. Using local figures from the City of London Cemetery I was able to take the daily series back to 1959. Beyond this I then sourced monthly data for Greenwich, 6 miles away, back to 1881. Using W.A.L Marshall’s A Century of London Weather and Luke Howard’s The Climate of London enabled me to take the series right back to 1797.

The series makes for interesting reading, putting this winter as 6th wettest since 1797. Scientists would say that because my series is only one dataset it cannot be regarded as a ‘catch-all’ for the country overall. But when statements like “England and Wales has had its heaviest rainfall since 1766” are put out by the media it is blatantly not true for the entire country. Just a quick look at the map shows that while parts of south and southeast England have been very wet – other parts of the country have been much less so.

But in this age of 24-hour rolling news the message to anyone who takes the headlines at face value is that this has been the wettest winter ever. You can view the winter mean temperature and rainfall stats here.

monthly summary, Weather

Air frost free February 2014

March 1, 2014 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

Although February was wet it was relatively much dryer than January and calmer than the other two months. February often brings us our best snowfalls and coldest weather but this was completely absent this year, continuing the theme of a snowless December and January.

Wanstead Flats by Scott Whitehead — The water table appears to have come to the surface on Wanstead Flats

Some 69.9mm of rain (178% of average) fell in February – the wettest since 2010 – and 32nd wettest in the series back to 1797.

February was also warmer than average with a mean temperature of 7.5C (2.2C above the 30-year average) – ranking it 13th in the series since 1797 – and the warmest January since 2011. Though the month was very mild no single day was particularly mild. Highest maximum was 14.5C on the 24th.

The most notable day was a storm on the evening of Valentine’s Day into the 15th which saw yet more damage, resulting in two deaths including a man killed by a wave on a cruise ship in the Channel. A woman was killed when a 3ft by 3ft block of falling masonry crushed her car outside Holborn station.

Air frosts: 0 – very unusual for February

Ground frosts: 7

To view full stats follow this link: http://1drv.ms/1cBRoH3

History, Weather

A wet winter, but no record breaker

March 1, 2014 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

Rain, rain and more rain. Winter 2013/14 will be most remembered for its incessant precipitation that brought flooding to many parts of the country including the Somerset Levels and many towns and villages along the Thames. But, in this locality, it was no record breaker – being only the 6th wettest in my series going back to 1797. The mean temperature of 6.7C made it the 10th mildest, a full degree colder than the warmest winter of 1989/90.

The winter was notable for its complete lack of lying and falling snow. Indeed NO snow falling was observed for the entire three months – something that hasn’t happened in this area in at least 50 years – possibly longer. There’s still a chance of snowfall before April’s out – the snowfall season can last from November to May – but with the increasing strength of the sun any snow cover will be short-lived.

The opening few days of December were calm and quiet but a storm on 5th caused two deaths and much damage in the north; a tidal surge in the North Sea brought flooding along the east coast. The coldest spell of the winter arrived the second week of December with fog and a couple of frosts. From the 15th, however, the Atlantic cranked into life and pretty much drove the weather for the whole winter. A strong jetstream stayed over or very close to the UK for much of the three months, driving depression after depression over the British Isles.

Though daily totals were not record-breaking it was noticeable how much heavier the rain was at times across the Thames. A storm that ran from December 23rd into Christmas Eve brought 23.4mm of rain to Wanstead while at Kenley, 17.5 miles away, over four times as much was recorded. The intense streamer of rain and high winds brought power cuts to Gatwick airport, delaying thousands of travellers on their way home for Christmas. Five people were killed as a result of the storm.

Tree damage by the war memorial in Wanstead High Street by Scott Whitehead — Damaging gusts associated with the depression on December 23rd felled this tree by the war memorial in Wanstead High Street

The wet theme continued through January with added thunder and lightning. The most notable day was Saturday 25th when what started as a bright, fine day quickly changed around 4pm as a strong squall with heavy rain blew through with associated thunder and lightning and 6C fall in temperature in an hour. Wanstead escaped the damage of elsewhere. Numerous trees blocked rail lines in Kent and gusts of over 60mph were widely reported.

There were two other incidents of thunder and lightning on 5th and 6th – very unusual in the middle of winter and an average normally observed in high summer.

Yet more rain greeted the month of February though things turned somewhat dryer after 15th, though rainfall for this month was still over 180% of normal. A storm on the evening of Valentine’s Day into 15th saw yet more damage, resulting in two deaths including a man killed by a wave on a cruise ship in the Channel. A woman was killed when a 3ft by 3ft block of falling masonry crushed her car outside Holborn station.

A few stats:

Air frosts: 10

Ground frosts: 29

Warmest day: 14.5C (24/2)

Coldest day: 4.2 (12/12)

Coldest night: -2.9 (11/1)

Warmest night: 8.9 (6/1)

Wettest days: 23.4mm (23/12) 16.2mm (28/1) 14.6mm (16/1)

Highest gust: 31.1mph (16/12, 5/1)

Windiest day: January 5th

Full details can be viewed here: http://1drv.ms/1d3JK8J