Tag Archives: Wanstead Park

Weather

Summer 2025 in Wanstead and beyond

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The mean for summer 2025 in Wanstead finished 19.8C, 1.8C above the 1991-2020 average and the second warmest summer in a local record going back to 1797. The figure was just 0.2C short of the warmest summer in 2022.

It was a dry season; just 84.5mm of rain was recorded, the driest for three years and 21st driest to 1797.

Taking a broader view of Greater London, using Met Office statistics for St James’s Park and Heathrow, reveals that summer, as an average of the three, finished second warmest, just 0.174 behind 2022.

In terms of rainfall it finishest 22nd driest with an average of 92.2mm.

Some 590.5 hours of sunshine were measured at Heathrow, 105% of average and the sunniest for 3 years.

The very dry spring had already taken its toll on the Ornamental Waters, Wanstead Park

thunderstorms, Weather

September thunderstorms

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This September has seen a lot of convective activity with three days of thunder, already more than the whole of meteorological summer.

The first storms arrived during the early hours of the 8th. Lots of thunder and lightning though only 7.1mm of rain. Further storms bubbled up at 1200 and 1720 with 9.8mm of rain.

Both the 11th and 12th have seen further thunderstorms develop with hail recorded though rain amounts were low; with 0.4mm and 0.6mm recorded respectively.

Here’s a timelapse of cloud activity on the 8th.

Weather

August 2024 in Wanstead

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The mean for August in east London was 19.7C, 1.5C above the 1981-2010 average. It was the 11th warmest back to 1797.

Rainfall of 17.8mm was 35 per cent of average, the driest August for 8 years. It was the 22nd driest back to 1797.

Sunshine at 177 hours was 91 per cent of average. It was the 68th dullest back to 1881.

Thunder was heard once on the evening of the 1st but the core of the storm was south of the Thames with over 50mm at Godstone and New Addington.

A look at the mean temperature shows how much the climate has warmed since the period 1961-90. Though the mean last month was only 0.9C up on the previous 10 years it was actually 2.3C warmer than 1961-90.

9am air pressure was largely below average with a pronounced dip on 24th bringing notably inclement weather for the time of year.

Here’s a few extremes for the month of September across the capital.

Climate of London, London weather, UK climatology

Rolling 12-month maxima in Wanstead, east London

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The rolling 12-month average maxima anomaly in Wanstead on June 10th is sitting at 1.6C.

Considering local statistics back to 1959 the figure reached an all-time high of 2.1C last November, a level it stayed until December 11th, when a very remarkable week of snow and frost arrived.

With unremarkable maxima for most of this year the figure has been falling. But with a building El Nino it remains to be seen if the highest anomaly ever of 2.1C will be breached.

Date12-month rolling anomaly
10/6/20231.6
10/6/20221.1
10/6/20210.4
10/6/20201.3
10/6/20191.7
10/6/20180.5
10/6/20171.2
10/6/20160.9
10/6/20151.0
10/6/20141.4
10/6/2013-1.3
UK climatology, Weather

A chilly and dry autumn on the way?

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Anomalies of the past two months throw up some interesting singularities as we head into late summer and autumn – with a hint that we could be heading for a much colder than normal December.

Using stats from the past 60 days revealed the following years. Those most similar to the current ENSO situation are highlighted in bold.

The most negative month on average will be December.

In terms of rainfall those hoping for a deluge look likely to be disappointed, at least in the south-east, with a continuation of synoptic conditions that favour drier than average weather.

The best chance for a wetter than average month appears to be September though, given recent synoptics, this is likely more a result of trough disruption than any sustained period of Atlantic-driven fronts.

London weather, UK climatology, Weather

The Christmas storm singularity

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One of the best articles written regarding weather forecasting is Philip Eden’s ‘Does the Weather Have a Memory?’

The crux of the article is that certain weather types can repeat at the same time of year with one having a 100 per cent probability!

The Christmas storm singularity occurs in 84 per cent of years.

While 84 per cent certainly doesn’t mean ‘nailed on’, in the current set up of models being evenly spread between settled and stormy it can be safely guessed at this range that there will be unsettled weather around on the 25th. Whether it will affect the whole country remains uncertain.

The last big snorter of a Christmas storm I can remember in London was 2013. The entry for the 23rd into the 24th reads.

“Cloudy and breezy start grew steadily duller with rain just before noon. Rain grew heavier with some really strong gusts into evening culminating at 2am. Cloud at one point was 10kms thick. Three deaths related to weather.”

There was chaos nationwide with flooding and power cuts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25512391

The average wind run for this station shows the singularity as well as the mid December settled spell we are now seeing.

London weather, Rainfall, singularities, UK rainfall, Wanstead Park history, weather pattern

Four June washouts in london

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Compiling a list of sunless, rainy days revealed some interesting spells of wet weather – the most miserable runs of June days in the capital since 1959.

First up was a three-day spell starting on June 25, 1974. Some 34.3mm of rain was recorded.

Next was a three-day spell starting on June 23, 1991. Some 26.3mm of rain was recorded.

Another three-day spell started on June 25, 1997. Some 36.2mm of rain was recorded.

Finally, and most recently, a two-day spell this month that began on June 17th. Some 28mm of rain was recorded.

The above spells all happened around the date of the ‘June monsoon’ singularity which has a probability of 77 per cent. Though the fact that these occurred 47 years, 30 years and 24 years ago shows that these extreme cases happen a lot less than three years in every four the singularity would suggest.

Comparing the current Northern Hemisphere pattern with 1974 suggests that while there’s just as much heat around at 850mb as there was 47 years ago, including an extreme heatwave over some Nordic countries, the air above Greenland appears colder.

Rainfall, UK climatology, UK rainfall, Weather, weather pattern

Sunless days and washouts

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The weather of late has been in stark contrast to the mostly dry, sunny (if a bit chilly) spring many enjoyed. Indeed the first half of June saw more of the same and, locally, was the warmest start to the first meteorological summer month since at least 1959.

My memory of summers years ago was that it was often hot and sunny but I also remember countless days of staring out the window for hours waiting for relentless rain to let up.

Looking back at sunshine stats to 1959 there has been over 4,400 days where no sun was recorded, roughly a one in five chance of a totally cloudy day.

Considering the months where the absence of sun is most noticed, May to October inclusive, the probability decreases to just under one in ten.

To decant these to ‘washout days’ I’ve only included those sunless days that were also ‘wet days’ where 1mm or more of rain was recorded. The probability further decreases to just under one in twenty.

All very interesting but were there more washout days decades ago or is the memory playing tricks?

Looking overall shows an increase since 2013. Out of all the months the most notable change has been August.

London weather, Monthly Review, monthly summary, Wanstead Park history, Weather

Spring in Wanstead Park

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Spring in this neck of the woods was really mixed.

A chilly start to March became fairly benign before ending with the warmest March day locally since at least 1959.

April then turned much colder and drier; just 2.4mm of rain fell during the month – the driest April since 2007 and fourth driest in a local rainfall series back to 1797! Sunshine was abundant with over 200 hours. But clear skies at that time of year, with a polar continental airmass, often means air frost. And the ten recorded overnight was far higher than normal.

May saw things warm up slightly but the month still finished a degree colder than average. Some 80mm of rain fell which is over one and a half times what we’d normally expect. The wettest May since 2007 – the month playing catch up on the total absence of April showers that bring the spring flowers! It was a dull month with only 126 hours of sunshine, 69 per cent of average – the dullest since 1990 was third dullest back to 1881.


In terms of flora and fauna the colder weather played havoc with the trees, bud burst coming much later than recent years. As I write this on June 6th some of the later budders like false acacia have only just come into full leaf. The birds, as they normally do, just seem to get on with it raising their young. I’m not sure what the food supply has been like but judging by the amount of healthy juvenile fledglings I’ve seen I would guess that it has been a good season so far?


Here’s the stats.
March 8C (+0.3) 30.9mm (76%) 90.9 hours (84%)24.1C on 30th (a record that had stood since 1965)
April 7.2C (-2.6) 2.4mm (5.5%) 202.6 hours (127%)
10 air frosts in April, much higher than normal
May 12.1 (-1) 80mm (156%) 125.6hours (69%)
Spring 2021: Mean Thermometer: 9.1C (1.1C below average, coldest since 2013, 111th coldest) Rain Cloud with rain: 113mm (84% of average, wettest since 2018, 150th wettest ) Sun Sun with rays: 425.4 hrs (94% of average, dullest for three years. 51st dullest) The average masked extremes.

London weather, Wanstead Park history, Weather, Weather in 1810

Days in Wanstead Park, 200 years apart

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During a miserably cold and wet stroll around the golf course in Wanstead Park I happened upon the remains of Wanstead House – basically a deep excavation where the basement and kitchens once were.

As a freezing cold mixture of rain, sleet and snow fell, gradually thawing the remnants of last night’s snow, I wondered what the weather was like when this magnificent building last stood. Luke Howard’s entry in The Climate of London revealed that the weather on this day 200 years ago was remarkably similar.

Wanstead House around 1819 just before its destruction
February 1st 2019

WP weather

As I stood and tried to imagine what the house must have looked like it occurred to me that 200 years is a mere blip in time in the history of the Earth. People come and go, buildings rise and fall but the weather goes on and on.

* There’s a fascinating extract on Wanstead from James Dugdale’s The New
British Traveller (1819) that you can find here.

** This video clip shows the site where Wanstead House once stood.