Tag Archives: Wanstead Park

July 2017: wettest since 1960

July 2017 was the wettest since 1960. Some 92.3mm of rain were recorded which is 212 per cent of the 1981-2010 average.finger cloud on 7th

Although the opening third of the month saw a continuation of the June heatwave temperatures gradually returned to normal values to leave the mean for the month at 19.2C, that’s 0.7C above average.

With all the rain sunshine totals were down. Some 167 hours were recorded, that’s 87% of average.

Though the rainfall total was impressive it is well short of the record of 164.2mm set in 1834, and is only 35th in the list going back to 1797.underlit

Summary for July 2017

Temperature (°C):
Mean (1 minute) 18.9
Mean (min+max) 19.2
Mean Minimum 14.7
Mean Maximum 23.7
Minimum 9.4 day 12
Maximum 30.5 day 07
Highest Minimum 18.3 day 06
Lowest Maximum 19.0 day 24
Air frosts 0

Rainfall (mm):
Total for month 92.3
Wettest day 30.8 day 11
High rain rate 56.4 day 29
Rain days 10
Dry days 21

Wind (mph):
Highest Gust 17.4 day 27
Average Speed 2.9
Wind Run 2163.5 miles
Gale days 0

Pressure (mb):
Maximum 1024.2 day 16
Minimum 996.8 day 31

Total hours of sunshine 167

In terms of the rest of the summer a look at the ECMWF control run out to 10 days suggests an unsettled start to August with the jetstream centred right over the top of the UK. Things may improve as the Azores high attempts to exert more influence – so perhaps more in the way of sunshine than of late. In terms of heatwaves it is impossible to tell at this range.mid level

Here follows the full weather diary for July. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Cloudy but with sunny spells developing, these growing longer in length by evening.
2nd: Sunny with just a few light cumulus.
3rd: Sunny start though with plenty of cloud around, this tending to thicken after lunch with odd spot of rain.
4th: Sunny and very warm early then tended to cloud over before sun returned in the late afternoon and evening. Some very unstable low to mid level cloud.
5th: Sunny with just a few cirro-cumulus. Feeling very warm with cloud bubbling up in the evening, however forecast storms failed to materialise.
6th: Sunny with cirrus and dotted cumulus. This tended to thicken late morning though sun stayed out and became hot and humid.
7th: Sunny with lots of high-level cirrus and cumulus most of the day.
8th: Bright but mostly cloudy start, the cloud tending to vary through the day. Sunny after 4pm. Warm overnight.
9th: Bright but mostly cloudy start, the cloud tending to break and vary through the day.
10th: A mostly sunny morning and lunchtime until 2pm when it clouded over.
11th: Cloudy with some bright breaks at first. Cloud thickening with rain by noon, this falling sporadically before getting going after 5pm and stopping by 3am.
12th: Cloudy, damp and close start.
13th: Sunny with variable cloud until noon when there were just bright spells.
14th: Cloudy but with a few breaks around mid morning. Turning cloudy again before sunny spells in the evening.
15th: Cloudy with some sporadic rain as warm front blew through and close. Very limited brightness.
16th: Cloudy with some bright spells. Feeling warm and humid.
17th:Sunny with just a few cirrus drifting around. Feeling hot, cloud thickened from the west in the late afternoon.
18th: Sunny with variable cirrus and cirro cumulus through the day. Feeling very warm. Storms began building with supercell to west of London and over Chilterns.
19th: Cloudy, dull start and very humid with heavy mist – the cloud tended to lift to give sunny spells in the afternoon.
20th: Drizzle after shower before obs time, then showers through to 1pm.
21st: Cloudy start but with sunny spells developing. Clouded over in evening with intermittent heavy rain at 11pm and through the early hours.
22nd: Cloudy but with sunny intervals developing around noon. Heavy showers developing with thunder at 2.30pm and 3.07pm.
23rd: Bright with variable cloud
24th: Cloudy with light, showery rain from northerly airstream that originated in the Med.
25th: Cloudy with light rain just after obs time.
26th: Cloudy with occasionally rain. Feeling warm and a late clearance. Breezy and chilly overnight.
27th: Cloudy but bright and sunny spells developing. A very heavy shower at 1pm.
28th: Bright start but clouding over.
29th: Sunny start with cloud increasing after noon to leave overcast before patchy rain moved in. This falling more heavily at 5pm before clearing to further showers. More rain overnight before a strong squall arrived at 2.45am and lasted an hour with further bursts of rain through the night –  two claps of thunder and lightening during squall.
30th: Sunny with variable cloud through the day. Very warm in the sunshine
31st: Sunny with variable cloud throughout the day.

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June 2017: very warm

June 2017 has been a month of real contrasts. A thundery deluge on the 2nd was followed by conditions typically brought by the European monsoon.

rainfall
24hr rainfall totals

Warm weather followed in the second week before a full-blown heatwave arrived bringing the hottest June spell since 1976.

The mean temperature for the month finished at 18.9C, that’s 2.8C above average. It was the second warmest June in a local record going back to 1797. Though it was only 0.4C cooler than 1976 it was also much wetter than that very dry month.

Though it appeared a wet month, over two-thirds of the recorded rain fell in two episodes.

Sunshine for the month was 202.3hrs, 114% of average.

In terms of the rest of the summer you would be forgiven for thinking that we have already had more than our fair share of good weather. One way of looking at it is to count the number of days the mercury rises above 25C with 10 hrs of sunshine. Since May that has happened on 13 occasions – far higher than anything in the past four years.june heat

It will be interesting to see if July and August, normally the months where we get most of our summery weather are as good as June.

Summary for June 2017
Temperature (°C):
Mean (min+max)   18.9
Mean Minimum     13.8
Mean Maximum     23.9
Minimum          9.9 day 12
Maximum          31.5 day 21
Highest Minimum  21.1 day 21
Lowest Maximum   16.7 day 28
Air frosts       0
Rainfall (mm):
Total for month  71.1 (138.9%)
Wettest day      31.2 day 02
High rain rate   108.4 day 02
Rain days        8
Dry days         22
Wind (mph):
Highest Gust     27.3 day 05
Average Speed    3.5
Wind Run         2550.5 miles
Gale days        1
Pressure (mb):
Maximum          1025.0 day 16
Minimum          984.2 day 05
Total hours of sunshine        202.3
Here follows the full weather diary for June. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Sunny with scattered cumulus through the morning, the cloud thicker during the day.
2nd: Cloudy start though brightening up with long sunny spells. Cloud bubbled up and a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 3.15pm and lasted an hour. Sunny again by 6pm.
3rd: Bright start with decreasing cloud.
4th: Sunny start though cloud bubbling up late morning into early afternoon. Cloudy and breezy with a few spots of rain at dusk.
5th: Cloudy and very breezy start. Bright at times.
6th: Rain and very windy to start with gale force 9 in Channel. Rain lasted into the early afternoon before clearing to bright spells. Odd shower overnight but remained blustery with a few trees down. Flowering cherry fell at mum’s at 6.30pm.
7th: Sunny with long sunny spells. An area of rain after dark then overcast through the night.
8th: Cloudy and breezy, a shower at noon and some bright spells at 1pm.
9th: Sunny though breezy with lots of cloud. Spots of rain in the wind.
10th: Sunny and warm start with lots of sunshine. Very breezy.
11h: Sunny and feeling very humid but breezy. Alternating between very warm sunshine and cloud. Very brief few drops of rain at dusk then mostly cloudy night.
12th: Sunny periods throughout the day. Cloudier at times. Clear overnight with warm, sunny start.
13th: Sunny, clear start and feeling warm early.
14th: Sunny most of the day with odd cumulus. Very warm though turning a bit fresher overnight.
15th: Sunny morning though with more cloud than yesterday. A fresh breeze developing.
16th: Sunny with variable cloud. Warm.
17th: Sunny though lots of hazy cumulus.
18th: Sunny though much cloud amid the humidity. Felt airless with only limited breeze. Oppressive overnight.
19th: Sunny with cloud decreasing
20th: Bright start though cloud breaking at 11am to leave clear afternoon with just a couple of cumulus.
21st: Sunny and hot all day with patchy cirrus. Warmest June day since 1976 at Heathrow 33.9C. Warm overnight but more of a breeze. Sunny early.
22nd: Very brief rain shower at obs time then sunny intervals. Cooler but still humid. Very breezy overnight.
23rd: Long sunny spells with hazy cumulus. Although cooler still hot in the sunshine. Cooler overnight and breezy.
24th: Mostly cloudy though bright. A sharp shower in the evening.
25th: Bright though mostly cloudy. A couple of bursts of drizzle but then sunny spells late evening.
26th: Sunny with lots of cirrus, cirrocumlus and a fallstreak hole in the sky. Warm but low humidity.
27th Sunny start though sun becoming scarce. Patchy light rain at 10.30am and thunder then a heavy shower at 3.45pm. Rain in the evening that lasted into the early hours.
28th: Cloudy and very dull at times with very light drizzle. Humid.
29th: Cloudy though bright with some sunny intervals.
30th Sunny though with lots of cloud. Decreasing cloud in the afternoon and a pleasant evening.

May 2017: rather warm, average rain

The mean temperature for May 2017 of 14.7C was 1.6C above average; the warmest for six years and the 11th warmest in a local series going back to 1797.

sunset
Sunset on May 1st 2017

Despite the first ten days of the month continuing the dry spell that has plagued London for months the total recorded finished above average: 62.5mm rainfall (122% of the 1981-2010), the wettest May for three years.

Though the month finished warm with some cracking sunny days the first two-thirds of the month were relatively dull: 157.1hrs of sunshine were recorded which is 86% of average, the dullest for 13 years.

I published my summer forecast on June 1st. It’s looking average.

Here follows the full weather diary for May. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Cloudy all day with just a few bright intervals.
2nd: Sunny and clear morning, cloud bubbled up at noon. Cloud thickened with very light drizzle at 8pm.
3rd: Cloudy, dull with occasional very light drizzle.
4th: Cloudy and feeling chilly all day. Odd drizzle.
5th: Sunny start though cloud thickened quickly to leave an overcast though bright, breezy afternoon.
6th: Cloudy all day with a couple of bright spells.
7th: Cloudy and cool start, cloud decreasing after noon, eventually clearing to leave long sunny spells at 5pm.
8th: Cloudy and cool start – the cloud sticking all day and felt chilly.
9th: Cloudy and cool start, cloud decreased late afternoon but did not completely clear until 5am, saving area from frost. -2.8C in Benson!
10th: Sunny and mostly clear into the afternoon with patchy cirrus.
11th: Sunny and humid to start with much high-level cirrus. Breezy too. Showers overnight.
12th: Cloudy start, one or two light showers before a brief heavy one at 2pm. Sunny spells developed late afternoon.
13th: Cloudy start before cloud decreased to long sunny spells in afternoon. Cloudier overnight with showers between 7am and 8am.
14th: Sunny spells and breezy. Cloudier overnight with shower at 7am.
15th: Light rain and showers through the morning, clearing in the afternoon to sunny intervals.
16th: Bright start with cloud decreasing. Some very warm sunny spells – felt like summer for first time. Light rain in the evening though it didn’t start falling consistently until 2am with heaviest fall arriving at 4am.
17th: Bright start with plenty of sunny spells. Showery rain arrived at noon, turning more persistent at 4pm, clearing around 10pm.
18th: Bright start with lots of sunshine. Cloud began thickening at 1pm with bursts of light rain. Persistent rain arrived at 3.30pm and was still moderate to heavy at 10pm. Started petering out at midnight but then two further showers at 3am and 5am.
19th: Showery with longer spells of rain. This tended to clear to sunny spells. Thunder in the evening with a brief heavy shower at 6.23pm.
20th: Sunny, warm and breezy morning to 1pm.
21st: Sunny start with cumulus bubbling up. Sunny spells thereafter, growing longer as day wore on. Still 20C at 6pm during first Music in Wanstead Park. Overcast early but cloud started to break around 8am.
22nd: Sunny with decreasing cloud, clear by 1pm with just patchy cirrus.
23rd: Cloudy start with sunny spells mid morning, turning mostly cloudy again though.
24th: Bright start with variable cloud and sunny spells.
25th: Sunny with variable cloud at obs time, the cloud quickly clearing though a convection line could be seen in the west from Essex.
26th: Sunny and clear though breezy. Long sunny spells through the day. Feeling hot. Thunder and brief downpour between 8.30am and 9am.
27th: Sunny though only after front had cleared. Then alternating cloudy to sunny. More cloud late afternoon and not feeling as nice as forecast.
28th: Sunny start with variable cloud though the day. Rain in the evening before storm arrived at 1am, the rain turning heavier at 1.45am and lasting till just gone 3am.
29th: Cloudy start though soon turning brighter. Feeling humid with occasional very light rain.
30th: Cloudy but bright with the odd break. Feeling fresher
31st: Bright start with plenty of holes in the alto cumulus. Cloudier in the afternoon

What is happening to Wanstead Park’s lakes?

Lack of rainfall and a broken pump have been cited by City of London Corporation as the main reason for the shocking levels of the ponds through the park.

Screen Shot 2017-04-26 at 22.46.07
The Ornamental Water by the Grotto is virtually dry. Images courtesy of Ralph Potter

The plight of the water courses has been well documented of late; a press release from the Corporation explains the catalogue of issues hampering efforts to address the problem. Closer scrutiny of these reasons, however, suggest that too much is being blamed on the weather.

A study of local rainfall back to 1981 suggests that though the ground water replenishing season (October 1st – April 24th) has been dry it is by no means out of the ordinary.

Screen Shot 2017-04-26 at 14.11.29

As you can see from the graph the rainfall here has gone up and down like a yo-yo and 2016-17 is only the fourth driest period: 1991-92, 1995-96, 1996-97 and 2011-12 were drier.

The Corporation’s press release states: “2015-16 was a helpfully wet period for us…”

Wrong. 2015-16 was average. And if you consider annual rainfall 2015 saw 92 per cent of average rainfall recorded; 2016 was 93 per cent – placing 58th and 66th in driest years since 1797. Nothing out of the ordinary.

“2016-17 has, however, been an especially dry period with below average rainfall since Spring 2016.”

Wrong. See above detail. There have been three drier periods since 1981. And since March 2016, only half of the months have been notably dry, a period that included the third wettest June since 1797.

“January to March 2017 has seen roughly 50% less rainfall than average”

Wrong. January to March rainfall was 94% of the 1981-2010 average

April has been dry, and could be among the top 5 driest back to 1797, but it seems the Corporation are trying to blame nature instead of years of neglect on their part.

Screen Shot 2017-04-26 at 22.45.51
The past months have seen much of Heronry Pond dry out. Image by Ralph Potter

 

The situation is in stark contrast to CoL’s other open space, Hampstead Heath, which has recently seen the completion of a £23m project to make safe the ponds there. CoL has deep pockets yet they have dithered for years over spending £25,000 to renovate the Coronation Bridge – and offer the people of Ilford a route into the park.
Figures released by CoL show it has only invested £1.23m in Wanstead Park over the last five years, compared with £50m spent in Hampstead Heath.

We are constantly told that problems in the park are ‘in hand’ yet progress on anything is painfully slow – and action to repair the pump has sadly come too late for much of the wildlife on Heronry Pond.

People from far and wide use Wanstead Park – they really deserve better!

Screen Shot 2017-04-26 at 22.42.10
You can view City of London Corporation’s press release here

 

March 2017: very mild and dry

The mean temperature in March 2017 was the mildest in a local record going back to 1797.march 2017

A complete absence of air frost was mirrored in the mean which finished 10.5C, 2.8C above average and 0.3C higher than the previous record set in 1997.

The record temperature was probably down to notably mild air masses through the month as the total sunshine hours were about average, 107.2 hours is 99% of the 1981-2010 average.

The warmest day occured on the 30th with a high of 21.6°C in Wanstead, the warmest March day for 5 years.

Rainfall was very sparse, just 21.3mm were recorded, that’s 52% of average – a pattern that seems to be becoming more frequent; four of the last six Marches have been notably dry.

Sunshine was average. Over 107.2 hours were recorded, 99% of what we can expect to see during an average March.

The wettest day occurred on the 22nd with 5.8mm.

Air frosts: 0, Ground frosts: 1

Here follows the full weather diary for March. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Sunny start, the sky gradually filling in with light rain at 3pm and into the evening. A windy night.
2nd: Sunny and blustery start, clouding over with some light rain in afternoon / evening. Drier overnight before area of light rain moved in at 0730z.
3rd: Cloudy start with light rain late morning. Feeling cold.
4th: Cold and cloudy with brief showers in the afternoon and overnight.
5th: Light rain at 9am and during the morning, briefly clearing at 10.30am before heavy showers moved in through the afternoon. Some warm sunny intervals in between. Showers into the evening until 10pm.
6th: Sunny start with just a few clouds around.
7th: Bright start with decreasing cloud to leave sunny late morning. Variable cloud through the afternoon. Rain at 00.50 until 0144.
8th: Light rain between 9 and 11am then showery though mostly light. Mild.
9th Sunny start though tending to cloud in late afternoon. Feeling mild.
10th: Cloudy with a burst of light rain at 10.30am.
11th: Bright, hazy start and feeling mild. Very quiet weather – pleasant in the garden.
12th: Cloudy with drizzle early afternoon
13th: Sunny start with a few cirrus, cloud gradually increasing but staying mostly sunny.
14th: Cloudy, mild and boring start – boring and cloudy all day.
15th: Misty start, quickly clearing to leave a glorious sunny day and pleasant.
16th: Sunny and clear up to 12 noon, then haze and cumulus pushing in and gradually thickening up. Light drizzle between midnight and early hours as cold front pushed through.
17th: Sunny but hazy start, this haze thickening through the morning. Feeling noticeably colder with patchy drizzle – felt quite inclement in the evening.
18th: Bright and breezy start. Then mostly cloudy with odd patch of drizzle.
19th: Cloudy, breezy with odd drizzle patch. Sunny intervals late morning and into the afternoon before clouding over in evening. Moderate rain at 1am.
20th: Cloudy and breezy start. Heavy showers spreading in with brief stair rods at 3pm, then clear and much cooler overnight.
21st: Sunny with well scattered cumulus.
22nd: Cloudy, dull and feeling cold in the wind. Showery rain, this turning heavier into the evening and to 1am.
23rd: Cloudy and breezy, some sun mid afternoon which felt warm.
24th: Cloudy, chilly and windy morning.
25th: Sunny and clear but with bracing easterly wind – pleasant outside the wind in the sun.
26th: Sunny and much more pleasant than yesterday with lighter wind.
27th: Cloudy and cold to start, the cloud breaking to long sunny periods that led to a pleasant afternoon. Cloudier overnight with cloudy, chilly dawn.
28th: Sunny, gin clear start. Cloud began building after noon with sun becoming ever more scarce. Light rain late evening and overnight.
29th: Cloudy and mild
30th: Sunny, though hazy start with lots of alto cumulus
31st: Cloudy and dull with brief drizzle at 9.30am. Cloud slightly less heavy at noon.

Ancient Egypt in Wanstead Park?

The unearthing of an ancient Egyptian statue, initially thought to be of the pharaoh Ramses II, in a Cairo suburb earlier this month reminded me of the mysterious stone that was discovered in Wanstead Park in 2014.

stone
The mystery stone on the banks of Heronry Pond

The granite object, discovered partly buried in undergrowth on the banks of Heronry Pond, was initially thought to be part of the long-lost pyramidion (or capstone) of Tia, overseer of the treasury in the time of Ramses II, from his tomb at Saqqara in the Aswan region.

Though tests made last year at Reading University suggested otherwise the fate of the stone that once had pride of place in the American garden of Wanstead House remains a mystery.

The capstone was placed in the park as part of a landscaping project in 1784. Humphry Repton, the landscape gardener who devised plans in 1813-18, described Wanstead Park as “one of the most magnificent places in this country”.

Unfortunately, owner William Wellesley Pole’s debts caught up with him and the estate’s riches were sold off at auction, including the intriguing stone which was labelled Lot 279.

auction
The catalogue of the 1822 auction

The auction on June 10th coincided with the hottest day of 1822 with the temperature peaking at 92°F. Evening thunderstorms brought some relief but the capstone remained unsold.

A catalogue of the 30-day event showed that Lot 279 was the last item to be sold, being bought by the auctioneer himself who immediately gave it to his son-in-law to display in his garden at Tamworth Castle. There is no evidence, however, that the stone ever reached Tamworth.

 

Though rainfall during the summer of 1822 was average much of it fell in cloudbursts. Luke Howard’s records in nearby Stratford for June and July reveal many days with maxima well into the 80s and destructive thunderstorms with deadly lightning and hail, some of which measured three inches in diameter.

the dig
Archaeologists at the dig in January 2015

It is possible that faced with transporting a very heavy lump of granite some 135 miles on a horse drawn cart on unmade, waterlogged roads those charged with the task instead quietly slid the stone into one of Wanstead Park’s lakes.

 

Ralph Potter, a member of Friends of Wanstead Parklands, has been following the story of the stone since it was discovered. He explained the reason behind why he thinks the stone’s origin is inconclusive: “Probably the world’s most eminent authority on stone from the Aswan quarries has declared, based on photos alone, that the stone does not originate from Aswan. On the other hand we have an eminent petrologist who within minutes of seeing the stone declared it almost certainly came from the quarry complex at Aswan.”

*A full history of the mystery of Lot 279, written by Chris Elliott, can be found here

**A chronicle of Wanstead Park, written by Alan Cornish, can be found here.

***The statue pulled from the mud in a Cairo suburb is thought to be most likely the first king of the 26th Dynasty of Egypt — Psamtek I .

wanstead house wikimedia commons
Wanstead House (Wikimedia Commons)

 

 

February 2017: mild, dry and dull

A cold spell that saw a thin temporary covering of snow wasn’t enough to stop February 2017 from finishing mild. The mean temperature of 6.9C was 1.6C above the 1981-2010 average, the mildest February for three years. feb

The 20th saw the warmest February day in 13 years recorded, the 17.5C reached was marginally cooler than the 17.9C recorded on February 4th 2004.

Rainfall of 31.5mm was 80% of average – the driest February for 4 years. It was a dull month, some 44.6 hours of sunshine were recorded, just 61% of average, the dullest for 5 years.

The wettest day occurred on the 26th with 9.2mm.

Air frosts: 2

Ground frosts: 8

Snow falling: 4

So what has March got in store weatherwise? My long range forecasting method suggests the most likely scenario to be something rather cold waverage to slightly below rainfall

My February outlook for temperature, rainfall and sunshine was poor again.

Here follows the full weather diary for February. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Cloudy with light rain late morning. Remaining cloudy into the afternoon and overnight with further light shower before obs time.

2nd: Cloudy and becoming breezy. Some intermittently light rain then cloudy. Broken cloud overnight.
3rd: Bright start with sunny spells developing – feeling warm in the sun. Cloud built up afternoon with rain at 4pm and 6pm. Rain at 8am.
4th: Light rain to start then bright spells late morning. Feeling chilly.
5th: Misty start and foggy out toward Epping. Some bright spells though mostly cold and cloudy. Broken cloud overnight with frozen dew at dawn.
6th: Sunny start with just a few wispy cirrus around. Clouding over after noon with rain in evening, heaviest at 8.45pm with bursts through the night. Min temp was at 9am yesterday.
7th: Cloudy, calm and damp start. Then clearing in afternoon for some mild sunny spells.
8th: Cloudy start and feeling really cold. Thick stratus cloud remained overnight – snow grains seen just before obs time.
9th: Cloudy and dull, snow grains seen. Mostly drizzle through the day.
10th: Dull and raw with occasional drizzle, sleet and snow grains falling all day and through the night – temporary dustings.
11th: Very light snow falling at 9am.
12th: Light snow at 9am with 1cm settling at Stanstead. Then cloudy and cold all day.
13th: Sunny start with sunny spells, clearance at noon.
14th: Cloudy start with complete clearance at noon.  Then variable cirro cumulus.
15th: Cloudy start and cloudy all day with some rain.
16th: Cloudy start breaking to sunny intervals afternoon.
17th: Cloudy start breaking to sunny spells at 10.30am, long sunny spells and mostly clear overnight.
18th: Cloudy start  with complete clearance after noon – cloudier spells overnight.
19th: Bright start but clouded over. Some drizzle at dusk.
20th: Cloudy start but sunny spells developing mid morning. Date record broken and warmest February day for 13 years.
21st: Cloudy and mild all day. Breeze picking up in the evening and into the night.
22nd: Cloudy and breezy start, the wind increasing through the day with occasional light drizzle. Some squally winds overnight.
23rd: Cloudy but with cold front clearance coming through at obs time – sunny spells thereafter but with squally winds – these increasing through the day with damage reported and trees down – a woman killed in Wolverhampton from flying debris.
24th: Sunny periods and feeling warm though shade felt cold. Early ground frost before cloud moved in – burst of rain in early hours.
25th: Cloudy and miserable with some rain in the late afternoon.
26th: Cloudy and miserable all day.
27th: Cloudy start but moderate to heavy prolonged showers moving in from 11pm. A miserable day with limited brightness.
28th: Sunny, gin clear start but with cirrus building frost west. Rain at 2.45pm, sporadic through the rest of the afternoon / evening.

December 2016: driest for over 80 years

December 2016 was the driest 12th month in over 80 years and the 5th driest in a record going back to 1797.

screen-shot-2017-01-05-at-17-12-19
Christmas day was the second warmest on record in London

The total fall of 8.3mm is just 16 per cent of what normally falls in December, marginally more than December 1933. The mean temperature of 6.1C was 0.5C above average, though 4C colder than the record December last year.

There were 51hrs of sunshine, that’s 125 per cent of average.

The wettest day was on the 10th when 5.2mm of rain fell. The warmest day occurred on the 9th with 14.2C recorded. The lowest temperature occurred on the 28th when the spirit fell to -4C.

The sunniest days were on the 4th and 29th when seven hours of sunshine were recorded.

Air frosts: 8, Ground frosts: 14

screen-shot-2017-01-05-at-17-12-44
Fog, frost and black ice all featured during December

Though January has started on the chilly side in the short term the weather will turn mild. Beyond that there is a suggestion that the weather could turn on the colder side of average with some models suggesting a cold snap with snow around mid-month.

My usual method of prediction to the end of the month has been scotched by the very dry December. The only years that were similar were both far colder than last month – the usual pattern of a dry month being cold or very cold was broken.

With the unprecedented warmth at the North Pole, last year’s odd behaviour of the QBO and a weak polar vortex we are in unprecedented territory in terms of what could happen later in January. My hunch, though, suggests the month will end up average to rather cold with little precipitation. Any cold spell with probably be the short-lived variety with a couple of inches of snow that lasts three days.

So, to sum up, we’re looking at a mean of 4.4C, rainfall: 55mm, sunshine: 39hrs.

In view of the above my forecast last month was very poor: predicted mean 4.4C (result 6.1C). Rainfall: 55mm (result 8mm). Sunshine: 39hrs (result 51hrs)

I have also published a winter forecast covering the London area that you can find here.

Here follows the full weather diary for December…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

1st: Sunny start though the frost lifted readily into low cloud and mist to leave a chilly afternoon.
2nd: Cloudy, quiet and cool weather all day.
3rd: Cloudy and quiet all day. Feeling cold.
4th: Sunny , frosty start. Quickly warming up to leave sunny, cloudless afternoon.
5th: Sunny start, then patchy cloud – this thickening before becoming foggy overnight.
6th: Misty start after fog overnight. Cloudy most of the day though there was a brief clearance around midday.
7th: Cloudy most of the day though there was occasional brightness.
8th: Dull day though with a little limited brightness early afternoon.
9th: Cloudy but wth more brightness than yesterday. Very mild. Cloud thickened with light rain around 11am. This gradually grew heavier as the day progressed and was moderate overnight.
10th: Bright start and feeling mild, then cloudier and damp.
11th: Cloudy and dull all day.
12th: Dull all day with light rain early and late. Clearer spells overnight but overcast again by dawn.
13th: Dull with bits and pieces of drizzle up to 11.20am.
14th: Bright start with lots of cirrus and altocumulus – this gradually cleared to leave a warm and pleasant afternoon.
15th: Dull and cloudy with limited brightness.
16th: Dull and cloudy start.
17th: Foggy and dull all day.
18th: Misty start with fog above 90m on cycle ride. Then dull and grey all day. Mild.
19th: Dull and cloudy all day – some spots of drizzle.
2oth: Sunny start but clouded over late morning. Cloudy thereafter with some drizzle overnight.
21st: Cloudy start then sunny. Cloud returned and turned dull and dreary in the afternoon with odd drizzle.
22nd: Bright, misty start
23rd: Cloudy start with breeze beginning to build as a result of Storm Barbera.
24th: Cloudy and dull all day. Very mild. Temp increasing overnight with approach of warm front .
25th: Cloudy, breezy start. Remained dull all day though brightness was seen over the Thames and North Downs, disrupting the SW’ly flow.
26th: Sunny, hazy start and turning colder.
27th: Sunny, frosty start, the air pressure record of 2012 has been broken.
28th: Foggy start, the fog persisting to late morning before sun broke through leaving a chilly afternoon. Frost returned quickly after dark, a clear night.
29th: Sunny and very cold and frosty start. Frost returning after dark with fog forming in the early hours.
30th: Foggy and dull all day, the fog thickening up at nightfall. Approaching cloud lifted the fog and temperature.
31st: Dull and overcast to start – this sticking around all day.

Wanstead weather: 2016 review

This year finished as the 14th warmest on record – some 0.5C warmer than the 1981-2010 average – though 0.2C cooler than 2015.

monthly-mean
Only four months of 2016 were below average temperature-wise

 

Six months of 2016 were roughly average – the means being within +/-0.7 every month, bringing the mean temperature to 11.7C.

Rainfall was less remarkable with the year being a little drier than average. The total of 561mm (93% of 1981-2010 average) puts it as the 122nd wettest since 1797, just 8mm wetter than 2015.

It was also a slightly duller than average year with 1,390 hours of sunshine recorded. That’s 93 per cent of average, the 92nd sunniest since 1881 – the least amount of sunshine for 12 years.

weather-stats-2016

 

For a review of each month, click January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December

To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

monthly-rain

monthly-sun

new-rain

November 2016: record sunshine, cool

November 2016 was the sunniest in a record going back to 1881. Some 91 hours were recorded, 156 per cent above average and a complete contrast to last November which was the dullest for 47 years.

frost
The temperature in the early hours of the 30th fell to -6.1C, colder than any night last winter and the coldest since January 2013

The mean temperature for the month finished 6.4C, that’s 1.5C below the 1981-2010 average ; 4C cooler than last year and the coldest November since 2010. The warmest day occurred on the 15th with 15.9C recorded. The first air frosts of autumn were recorded. The lowest temperature occurred on the 29th when the spirit fell to -6.1C.

Rainfall was 135 per cent of average with 80.1mm recorded. The wettest day was on the 19th when 23.5mm of rain fell.

The sunniest days were on the 2nd, 13th and 25th when eight hours of sunshine were recorded.

Air frosts: 4, Ground frosts: 19

stingjet
The dolphin-shape of this radar image shows Storm Angus before it hit the south coast. The system stayed far enough south of us not to cause any damage in London

What has December got in store weatherwise? The models suggest the high pressure that has been anchored over us, bringing cold nights, will pull away to the continent. This will allow an ever milder but mostly dry source of air off the Atlantic through to mid month. Days will grow milder while frost and fog will feature less at night.

Beyond the grasp of the models my long range outlook method suggests an cold month is most likely at 43 per cent probability. Average comes in at 29 per cent probability while rather mild and rather cold are both 14 per cent probabilities.

Rainfall looks finely balanced. Wetter and dryer than average both come in at 43% probability while average is 14 per cent. Given the influence of high pressure at the beginning of the month I’m inclined to think it will be a drier than average month.

So, to sum up, we’re looking at a mean of 4.4C, rainfall: 55mm, sunshine: 39hrs.

My forecast last month was good: predicted mean 6.8C (result 6.4C). Rainfall: 55mm (result 80mm). Sunshine was way off, however – predicted total: 41hrs (result 91hrs)

I have also published a winter forecast covering the London area that you can find here.

Here follows the full weather diary for November…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

1st: Cloudy and mild all day. Patchy drizzle at times.
2nd: Sunny, cold start after first ground frost of the autumn.
3rd: Sunny, cold start with cirrostratus and cumulus drifting around. Cloud thickened through the afternoon with some light rain around 9pm.
4th: Cloudy, dull start up to 11am. Rain pushed in and lasted for much of afternoon, clearing in evening.
5th: Cloudy, cold and damp start. Some brightness though with a cold wind.
6th: Sunny, cold start, tending to cloud in. Rain after 3pm. Feeling cold but too windy for a frost overnight.
7th: Sunny, cold and very breezy to start, the cloud tending to fill in through the day. Clearer overnight though too much cloud and occasional air prevented an air frost.
8th: Sunny and cold start. Cloud thickened during the day to bring rain after dark at 8pm that then fell through the night – the biggest fall since Brexit day.
9th: Light rain slowly clearing to cloud.
1oth: Cloudy start with light rain showers around 10.30am then cloudy. Some sunny intervals in the afternoon. Milder.
11th: Bright start with cloud decreasing through the morning to leave a pleasant and clear afternoon.
12th: Miserable and rainy to start, this lasting past 11.15am. Drizzle thereafter into 6pm.
13th: Sunny start though cloud tended to fill in through the day. Damp overnight with patchy drizzle.
14th: Cloudy and damp start with some breeze. Brief brightness at noon but patchy drizzle moved in around 4pm.
15th: Cloudy and miserable though very mild.
16th: Sunny start and very mild though cloud tended to fill in during the day making the sunshine milky.
17th: Bright, breezy start, the breeze increasing until a squall blew through at 2.40pm then sunny spells. front
18th: Bright start with milky sunshine then tending to cloud over. Feeling cold.
19th: Bright sunshine though cold to start. Patchy altocumulus developed through the day, leaving it to become bright, the strength of the sun diminishing. Rain started around 6pm and fell through night with varying intensity.
20th: Dull and cloudy start with rain returning at 10am. Cloudy afternoon with rain returning late evening and through the night, some heavier bursts.
21st: Cloudy with showers past noon. Heavier showers moved in mid afternoon and fell into the evening.
22nd: Cloudy with a few very light showers around. Breezy.
23rd: Cloudy and breezy. Feeling mild.
24th: Cloudy and mostly dull with brief brightness at noon.
25th: Sunny with just a few cumulus around.
26th: Sunny start but low cloud blotted out the sun around midday then cloudy and cool.
27th: Cloudy and mild.
28th Sunny all day with just a few cumulus floating around.
29th: Sunny all day with frost persisting on grass in shade.
30th: Sunny and very frosty start. Frost persisting on the grass all day with a very cold start to the night. A veil of cloud crossed the region late evening, lifting the temperature above freezing, before clearing before dawn