A chilly and dry autumn on the way?

Anomalies of the past two months throw up some interesting singularities as we head into late summer and autumn – with a hint that we could be heading for a much colder than normal December.

Using stats from the past 60 days revealed the following years. Those most similar to the current ENSO situation are highlighted in bold.

The most negative month on average will be December.

In terms of rainfall those hoping for a deluge look likely to be disappointed, at least in the south-east, with a continuation of synoptic conditions that favour drier than average weather.

The best chance for a wetter than average month appears to be September though, given recent synoptics, this is likely more a result of trough disruption than any sustained period of Atlantic-driven fronts.

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