Category Archives: singularities

England’s gloriously rainy omen

What’s the most ridiculous omen for an England win in the European Championship final against Italy on Sunday? After hearing this on the radio this week I decided to try to find one.

Readers of this blog will know my theories of how the weather and big events seem to be tied together. So it is no surprise that I’ve indeed found one.

Last month, I wrote about summer washouts. The one last month that began on the 17th saw 28mm fall, possibly contributing to what was a dull spectacle; England’s 0-0 draw with Scotland at a rain-soaked Wembley.

While putting together the July list of washouts one of only six events since 1959 began on July 19th 1966. Over 20mm of rain fell, coinciding with England’s group game with France. The Three Lions won the tie thanks to a brace from Liverpool’s Roger Hunt. Days earlier they had been panned after a dull 0-0 draw with Uruguay. No-one, apart from Alf Ramsey, fancied our chances. Yet by the end of the month they were world champions.

So, in terms of football singularities, England’s is one title every 55 years? We’ll know by 11pm on Sunday.

Euro 2020, weather and Wimbledon

Four June washouts in london

Compiling a list of sunless, rainy days revealed some interesting spells of wet weather – the most miserable runs of June days in the capital since 1959.

First up was a three-day spell starting on June 25, 1974. Some 34.3mm of rain was recorded.

Next was a three-day spell starting on June 23, 1991. Some 26.3mm of rain was recorded.

Another three-day spell started on June 25, 1997. Some 36.2mm of rain was recorded.

Finally, and most recently, a two-day spell this month that began on June 17th. Some 28mm of rain was recorded.

The above spells all happened around the date of the ‘June monsoon’ singularity which has a probability of 77 per cent. Though the fact that these occurred 47 years, 30 years and 24 years ago shows that these extreme cases happen a lot less than three years in every four the singularity would suggest.

Comparing the current Northern Hemisphere pattern with 1974 suggests that while there’s just as much heat around at 850mb as there was 47 years ago, including an extreme heatwave over some Nordic countries, the air above Greenland appears colder.

THE STORM OF MARCH 4, 1818

Early March often brings stormy weather, a singularity that has a probability of 88 per cent!

An example of just how long this singularity has been around can be found in the early 19th century

In his book The Climate of London Luke Howard mentions that the air pressure on March 4th was the lowest measured for some 37 years. The lowest point of 28.35 inches (960mb) is remarkable in that the lowest I’ve measured in Wanstead since 2012 was 969.8mb last December!

The storm brought devastation across a wide swath of southern England with loss of life on both land and sea.
Howard’s account of the storm mentions the barometer falling an inch in 15 hours with rain after dark with the wind “raging in violent gusts from SE and SW till past midnight when it abated after much thunder and lightning”.

His friend in Manchester, Dr William Henry, wrote a storm SW caused considerable damage, delaying the London mail in Macclesfield from 8pm until 3am on the 5th, the storm raging until 3am. The barometer fell to 28.2in (955mb) at Manchester.

Character of the period for the most part tempestuous with frequent rains the barometer running through a series of sharp depressions till near the close when it suddenly assumed the elevation of fair weather Almost all the showers from the first were more or less mingled with hail

Elsewhere in Britain public ledgers also reported the storm.

Yarmouth A most tremendous gale of wind from the S to the SE with rain came on about 8pm which continued with increasing violence all night and has done considerable damage to the shipping on this part of our coast.

Deal Last night it came on to blow a most tremendous gale from the south and continued nearly the whole of the night with unabated violence at midnight it blew a complete hurricane accompanied with thunder and lightning during which several vessels in docks suffered.

Portsmouth It blew a tremendous hurricane last night from S and SSE accompanied with the highest spring rides ever remembered.

Ryde One of the severest gales of wind that has been felt here for the last 37 years was experienced last night. It commenced about 4.30pm and continued with increased violence until past 11pm during which time the greater part of the pier and several houses were demolished. The supposed damage is estimated at between £4,000 and £5,000. No lives were lost nor any damage done to the shipping.

Dartmouth We experienced a perfect hurricane last night at SSE from 6pm to 10pm

Exmouth On the 4th instant between 7pm and 8pm we had a most tremendous gale of wind about SSE with dreadful rain thunder and lightning.

Falmouth At day light this morning the wind was from the WSW moderate. About 11am it strengthened to the S and from that to SSE and since that time until 10pm it has blown a hurricane with a heavy sea.

Penzance We had a very heavy gale here on Wednesday the 4th.

Milford On the 4th it blew a very heavy storm from SW to WNW.

Leicester Wednesday night was one of the most boisterous recollected for years past. Much damage has been sustained in this town and many parts of the county.

Hull At high water about 4.30pm the wind then blowing from the SW with moderate weather the tide flowed at the Old Dock Gates 18ft 6in. After the tide had fallen from 1 to 2in the dock gates closed as usual with the ebbing of the tide which then began again to flow to the height as near as can be calculated of four or five inches thereby opening the gates again and continued flowing. The tempestuous night of Wednesday ensued the wind blew a heavy gale still from the SW and at high water at 5am Thursday morning the tide was 14ft 1in being 4 feet 5 inches less than on the preceding evening although from the spring tides having put in the water ought according to the usual state of things to have flowed higher than on the Wednesday evening

Plymouth At the commencement of the winter a few large stones were placed by themselves on the top or finished part of the Breakwater to see if they would stand the winter gales they stood all but this last and this morning I found them washed from the top and lying on the North Slope There were three of them one of nine tons and the other two of five tons each they will be replaced as soon as possible for further trial Plymouth The effects of the late thunder storm of the 4th March on a fir tree belonging to W Langmead Esq at Elfordleigh in the neighbourhood of Plymouth are too singular to be omitted and perhaps the most extraordinary ones that ever occurred in this county on such an occasion The tree in question has been long admired for its size and noble proportions being more than 100 feet high and nearly 14 feet in girth but it exists no longer having been literally shivered to pieces by the electric fluid Some of the fragments lie 260 feet from the spot and others bestrew the ground in every direction presenting altogether a scene of desolated vegetation easier to be conceived than described.

The curse of June 13th

1 Jun 21 Jun 16 Jun 77

June can be a strange month weatherwise. Scorching temperatures as well as washout, cold weather, perhaps epitomised by the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee pageant on the river Thames in 2012, can feature prominently.

The month can also throw up some striking anomalies, none more so than the fact that the 13th is the only day in the month where the temperature has never reached or exceeded 30C anywhere in the British Isles.

According to TORRO the highest daily maximum recorded in the UK is 28.3C at Earls Colne, Essex, in 1948; at Brixton, south London, in 1896 and Aboyne in 1994. Yet either side of this date has records comfortably above 31C, as the table below shows.

torro.PNG

The closest we’ve got locally to 30C in the last 60 years was in 1989 when 27C was recorded.

So why is the 13th ‘cursed’ with traditionally being the coolest day of the month? The best explaination perhaps is the fact that the date occurs more or less during the middle of the North-west European monsoon.

According to Philip Eden’s list of singularities the June monsoon can strike any time between the 1st and 21st but normally peaks on the 16th with a 77 per cent frequency.

As well as cool temperatures the phenomenon can also bring copious amounts of rain, as happened in 1903 when large parts of Redbridge were inundated following a 59-hour deluge that started on… the 13th.

Will we see a repeat this Thursday? Unlikely, though the general pattern is not that different to what led to events over a hundred years ago.

13th

A winter drought

Rain today (January 16th) is the first meaningful fall since before Christmas, putting an end to the 23-day long dry spell.

This meteorological drought, rare given that it spanned Christmas and New Year Storm singularities, these having 84 and 86 per cent probabilities respectively, was the 3rd equal longest winter drought.

The only other similar droughts in a list that dates back to 1887 were 19/12/2008 – 03/01/2009 and 17/12/1972 – 02/01/1973.

winter droughts

The last precipitation I recorded was from a weak occlusion that followed a cold front on the evening of December 23rd.

This synoptic set-up was followed by a build in air pressure that peaked on the morning of January 3rd; 1043.8mb was the highest reading in this area for at least 10 years and is the highest pressure I have measured.

A fuller version of London droughts in all seasons can be found here.

November: an Indian summer before turning cold?

With the mean temperature of both October and September finishing 0.2C below average it is probably safe to say that the weather is in an average kind of mood.

Conditions during the first part of November look changeable, according to the Met Office’s 30-day forecast . After mid month, however, the agency says the forecast is uncertain.

Now that much of the UK has had its first frost any warm spell in November will, correctly, be called an Indian summer. A singularity called the St Martin’s Summer occurs in 66 per cent of years, occurring between 15th and 21st and peaking on the 18th.

And, as if by magic, the GFS model today has this chart for the 16th, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure with daytime temperatures about 6C to 8C above average. Though warm during the day I would imagine there being a risk of fog forming at night

16th

Beyond that there could be a tendency for much more unsettled weather at the end of the month. The early December storms singularity occurs in 98 per cent of years, starting between November 24th and December 14th, often peaking on December 9th.

November, the last autumn month, can often surprise with its extremes, though it can also often be characterised by days of anticyclonic gloom. The warmest, coldest and wettest November conditions in London back to 1959 can be found here.