Storms in late February / early March occur in 88 per cent of years, according to Philip Eden’s study on singularities.
This year looks no different although the drop in air pressure looks like it will happen just in the nick of time.
A look at the past eight years shows the effects of the pattern are quite pronounced.
And a look nationwide reveals the following named storms occurred around this period.
And going back further reveals a notable storm in the 19th century.
This year finished as the 17th warmest on record – some 0.4C warmer than the 1981-2010 average. Although mild it was the coolest for six years.
After a dry start a wet autumn saw annual rainfall finish above average, the wettest for five years, 105 97 per cent of average.
Sunshine was down on 2018 though the total was just above average.
For a review of each month, click January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
You can read the national review of weather events at the Met Office blog here.
Summary for 2019
The December monthly mean finished 6.3C, that’s 0.7C above average, making it the ninth month of 2019 where the monthly mean temperature finished above average.
The wet theme of October and November carried on into December; the 111.1mm collected was 209 per cent of the 1981-2010 average, the wettest since 2002.
Some 51hrs of sunshine were recorded, 126 per cent of average, the sunniest for three years.
There were seven air frosts.
To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv
The wet theme of the final week of September carried on into October; the 100.3mm collected was 150 per cent of the 1981-2010 average, the wettest 10th month for 15 years.
The monthly mean finished 11C, that’s 0.8C below average, the coldest October since 2012. It is only the second month of 2019 where the monthly mean temperature finishes below average.
Only 72hrs of sunshine were recorded, 68 per cent of average, the dullest October since 2002.
The area’s first frost arrived 10 days before the median date back to 1959. And 3 days earlier than last year. A shower with >5mm hail was observed on the 9th.
To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv
Summary for October 2019
Most of the rain of September 2019 fell in the last week making what was a fairly unremarkable month weatherwise the wettest September for 13 years.
Some 63.9mm of rain fell which is 123 per cent of average.
The monthly mean finished 15.8C, that’s 0.4C above average, the warmest September for 3 years, 0.6C warmer than last year.
Sunshine, at 150.5hrs, 107 per cent of average but over 30 hours fewer than last year.
To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv
Summary for September 2019
Apart from the hot four days in the last week August 2019 was fairly unremarkable.
Overall the monthly mean finished 19.9C, that’s 1.4C above average.
Rainfall at 37.7mm, was 75 per cent of average, the driest for 3 years. Sunshine, at 180hrs, the sunniest for 3 years.
To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv
Summary for August 2019:
Temperature (°C):
June 2019 saw no high temperature records broken but a jump in anomaly, produced on the 29th by the 3rd hottest June day back to 1959, is higher than any I can find back to that year..
The only phenomena similar that I can find, albeit in the other direction, is the Beast from the East in March 2018 that sent temperatures plummeting.
The month finished a little above average though the final figure, like May and April, masked cool warm spells.
The mean temperature finished 16.9C that’s 0.8C above average, the coolest for 3 years.
Rainfall was 63mm, 123% of average, the wettest for 2 years. Sunshine was 158 hours, 88.7% of average, and dullest for 3 years.
A timelapse of the longest day can be found here.
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The 12 month rolling rainfall total, thanks to a wetter than average month, has moved above 500mm again.
Summary for June 2019
Looking out the window on a cold and miserable June afternoon yesterday reminded me of similar such days during the Seventies and Eighties.
But the mind plays tricks and I wondered if these kind of days were that common in the past.
To weed out the also-rans qualifying days had to be sunless with an anomaly that was at least 4C cooler than the daily average and rainfall of at least 12mm.
This gave the following list.
So, in the last 60 years there have been only 12 days similar to June 10th 2019. That would give a probability of less than 1% (0.00743)
Looking elsewhere it would appear that there was much more rain to the north, south and west of Wanstead.
| 1 Jun | 21 Jun | 16 Jun | 77 |
June can be a strange month weatherwise. Scorching temperatures as well as washout, cold weather, perhaps epitomised by the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee pageant on the river Thames in 2012, can feature prominently.
The month can also throw up some striking anomalies, none more so than the fact that the 13th is the only day in the month where the temperature has ever reached or exceeded 30C anywhere in the British Isles.
According to TORRO the highest daily maximum recorded in the UK is 28.3C at Earls Colne, Essex, in 1948; at Brixton, south London, in 1896 and Aboyne in 1994. Yet either side of this date has records comfortably above 31C, as the table below shows.
The closest we’ve got locally to 30C in the last 60 years was in 1989 when 27C was recorded.
So why is the 13th ‘cursed’ with traditionally being the coolest day of the month? The best explaination perhaps is the fact that the date occurs more or less during the middle of the North-west European monsoon.
According to Philip Eden’s list of singularities the June monsoon can strike any time between the 1st and 21st but normally peaks on the 16th with a 77 per cent frequency.
As well as cool temperatures the phenomenon can also bring copious amounts of rain, as happened in 1903 when large parts of Redbridge were inundated following a 59-hour deluge that started on… the 13th.
Will we see a repeat this Thursday? Unlikely, though the general pattern is not that different to what led to events over a hundred years ago.
Since February most of this region’s rainfall has been falling during the first half of the month.
February: 86%
March: 134%
April 28%
May (to 26th) 54%
With only one of these months wetter than average the long-term, rolling trend continues to head downwards.
Considering past rainfall patterns it can only be a matter of time before the graph heads upwards again. Looking further back at rainfall data to 1961 reveals the extremes were higher and that the jump from dry to wet can be sudden.
The wettest 12-month rolling period ended mid way through May 1975 with a total of 873mm. However, just 16 months later, at the end of the hot summer of 1976, the rolling 12-month average was just 302mm, that’s less than half of our average annual rainfall!
