Where’s Jack Frost?

It’s usually around this time of year that this area experiences its first air frosts – but a warm, wet October caused by an active Atlantic and a jet stream sitting close to us has meant that classic radiative cooling nights have been in very short supply. There’s been a couple of chilly nights – down to 2.6C on October 30th and November 5th – but to record an air frost the thermometer must read below 0 Celsius (32Fahrenheit).

The first frost last year was recorded on November 6th. Much hoar was seen around the shady banks of Shoulder of Mutton pond in Wanstead Park
The first frost last year was recorded on November 6th. Much hoar was seen around the shady banks of Shoulder of Mutton pond in Wanstead Park

Last year, Wanstead recorded its first air frost on November 6th (-1C). Looking back through the records to 1980 the earliest frost was October 17, 1992, and the latest was January 6th, 2004. Interestingly it appears that having frost in October can signal a mild winter to come!. The median for the first frost is November 16th – 18th. Forecasts for this week suggest we could be scraping the windscreens for the first time on Saturday, thanks to high pressure building in from the Atlantic and calming things down.

Indeed, the models today suggest there is a chance of a block forming in the Atlantic which effectively stops depressions from whistling in from the west, unlocking the door for cooler weather from the north or east. It’s a long way off in meteorological terms though.

Here is a list of first air frosts in Wanstead…

The ECMWF model shows high pressure riding in from the Azores at the end of the week
The ECMWF model shows high pressure ridging in from the Azores at the end of the week

2012: Nov 6th (-1C)

2011: Dec 17th (-0.3C)

2010: Nov 15th (-2.2C)

2009: Dec 15th (-0.2C)

2008: Oct 29th (-1.3C)

2007: Nov 16th (-0.9C)

2006: Dec 10th (-0.4C)

2005: Nov 14th (-0.1C)

2004: Nov 14th (-0.6C)

2003: Dec 8th (-0.5C)

2002: Jan 6th 2003 (-0.9C)

2001: Dec 14th (-1C)

2000: Nov 15th (-0.3C)

1999: Dec 19th (-1.8C)

1998: Nov 22nd (-3C)

1997: Oct 29th (-1.5C)

1996: Nov 11th (-0.4C)

1995: Nov 18th (-0.1C)

1994: Dec 15th (-2.5C)

1993: Nov 16th (-1.3C)

1992: Oct 17th (-0.9C)

1991:Nov 10th (-0.4C)

1990: Dec 5th (-0.5C)

1989: Nov 24th (-2.4C)

1988: Nov 6th (-2C)

1987: Oct 25th (-2C)

1986: Dec 7th (-0.5C)

1985: Nov 3rd (-5C)

1984: Dec 11th (-3.4C)

1983: Oct 23rd (-1.1)

1982: Nov 29th (-2.6C)

1981: Dec 8th (-0.5C)

1980: Dec 1st (-3C)

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Wanstead Weather – October 2013

Wanstead Weather – October 2013

I’m now starting to publish my monthly stats on this blog. This month was warmer than average with a mean temperature of 13C (1.2C above the 30-year average) – making it the 10th warmest in the series since 1881. Rainfall of 83mm was 127% of average.

81 years ago: Wanstead Flats Bonfire Night

Wanstead Flats has put on some spectacular Guy Fawkes’ nights over the years. I didn’t realise quite how many years until I stumbled upon this old British Pathe clip which shows nurses at Wanstead Children’s Home building a huge bonfire for the children in 1934.

The footage shows the nurses struggling to get the Guy atop the bonfire, using numerous ladders, while the children, including 12 sat in an old perambulator, look on. I don’t have the stats for what the day was weatherwise but that November was dryer than average.

'To Go Up in Smoke' is available to buy from British Pathe http://www.britishpathe.com/video/to-go-up-in-smoke/query/Guy
‘To Go Up in Smoke’ is available to buy from British Pathe http://www.britishpathe.com/video/to-go-up-in-smoke/query/Guy

The Aldersbrooke Childrens Home for Waifs & Strays is still there in Brading Crescent on the Aldersbrook Estate, although the five lodges have been converted to flats.

The former Aldersbrook Children's Home is still there in Brading Crescent but has been converted to flats
The former Aldersbrook Children’s Home is still there in Brading Crescent but has been converted to flats

A bit of history…

In 1907, the West Ham Guardians purchased the Aldersbrook site. In 1911, five receiving homes were completed. The homes were called lodges and were: Elizabeth Fry Joseph Lister, Tom Hood, Edward North Buxton and William Morris

In 1913, a workshop, for training of the older boys and girls was opened. Skills learnt were in tailoring, carpentry, laundry work and needlework, under skilled industrial trainers.

In 1930, on the 1st April, the ownership of Aldersbrook homes and the leases of the Scattered Homes, were under the 1929 Local Government Act, and by agreement with the Essex County Council and the West Ham Corporation, vested in the East Ham Corporation who are required to continue to receive destitute children from the Essex County Council and West Ham, formally comprised in the West Ham Union area.

On 27th May 1933, the Aldersbrook Children’s Homes new nursery was opened. The County Borough of East Ham owned it. Alderman T.W.Burden, Chairman of the Public Assistance Committee, opened it. The Mayor of East Ham, Alderman G.H.Manser J.P, proposed a vote of thanks, which was seconded by Alderman C.W.Brading J.P, and supported by Alderman Mrs Taylor (East Ham) and Councillor G.Doherty, of West Ham. After the official opening, the older children (14 to 16 years old) of the homes put on the play “David Garrick”.

The superintendent of the home was W.T.P. Steele, and the matron was E.M.Steele. S.R.N. The building was described as being divided into three sections – ground floor, babies under twelve months and toddlers one to three years, first floor staff. Accommodation is given for ninety infants under three years. Wards are provided for these age groups were newly admitted children will be housed for three weeks before being sent to the general rooms. Two ranges of isolation rooms are also provided where “suspects” can be nursed to reduce the risk of infection. The south end of the building is allotted to the youngest or cot babies and comprising of long dormitory with sun rooms at the end, designed to catch the winter sun.

The programme went on to describe the building as being the most modern of children’s institutions. The building has a veranda at the front. The first floor has 21 separate staff bedrooms. The building had an oil fired heating system and flooring with fire resistant Terazzo material whilst the children’s play room and dormitories are protected by rubber flooring. The lighting and power points are controlled by locking device to prevent the children switching them on and off. The building was built by Messrs Hammond & Barr Ltd Chelsea.

The Nursery is now gone and the Aldersbrook estate covers the area, although the recreation Hall, the lodges (See photo) and the porters lodge are still there.

Bang goes chance of a frosty Guy Fawkes

Is Guy Fawkes’ Night going to turn into a damp squib this year? The forecasts don’t look good – our best hope is for a brief ridge to briefly quieten things down before the next frontal system trundles in from the Atlantic.

What was a very wet week last year led to the cancellation of the public display on Wanstead Flats – with 10.2mm of rain on the Saturday flooding the already sodden land. The forecast for this year doesn’t look much better with 16mm of rain due between Friday and dusk on Sunday.

The cloud cover / rainfall chart for 6pm Tuesday shows that the front may have cleared through by the time the bonfires are lit. At this range, though, it is a big if
The cloud cover / rainfall chart for 6pm Tuesday shows that the front may have cleared through by the time the bonfires are lit. At this range, though, it is a big if

But what about the actual 5th of November? Monday looks very wet for this region with yet another frontal system sweeping across the south. Up to an inch of rain could fall before dusk on Tuesday driven along by a stiff westerly wind. The only positive, if you can call it that, is it will be very mild. Temperatures will only fall to around 14C which is very warm for a night in early November.

It wasn’t always like this – ask most people of a certain age what the weather was like on Bonfire Night in their youth and most will answer ‘calm, cold and frosty’ – the bonfire providing a source of warmth as well as somewhere to roast the chestnuts and toast the marshmallows. But were frosty nights on Guy Fawkes in the 1980s that common? I decided to have a look back through the archives and find out.

The FAX for November 5 shows an occluded front right over our region at 12noon. This may have cleared through by 6pm
The FAX for November 5 shows an occluded front right over our region at 12noon. This may have cleared through by 6pm

Only 4 nights in the Eighties could really be described as approaching frosty – they were 1980, 1981, 1989 and 1988 which was the coldest Guy Fawkes’ of the past 30 odd years with the temperature falling to 0.4C. All the other years had minimums of between 5-10C. One thing that is noticeable is how dry November 5 was in the 1980s – just 2 years had any measurable amounts of rain; 1986 (0.5mm) and 1984 (3mm). Nineties Bonfire Nights were even warmer – nearly 1.5C warmer on average – the coldest years being 1991 and 1998 with 2C.

Noughties Bonfire Nights were a continuation on the Nineties – mild though over half were dry affairs. The overall average over the last 30 years is quite surprising – 12C during the day and only falling to just over 6C at night. Taking the average of the last five years the minimum rises to nearly 8.5C! The odds of it raining heavily on Bonfire Night, meanwhile, average out about 1 in 5. Raining lightly the odds increase to a 40% chance.

And as for that wished-for frosty night? Forget it. It seems memories of perfectly frosty Bonfire Nights are about as elusive as the Dickens-style winter snow images that are still so common on Christmas cards.

St Jude blasts through Wanstead

Much comparison has been made of Monday morning’s storm which claimed the lives of four people and 1987. The origin of both storms was down to a combination of a jet streak interacting with a pool of warm air low down. Both storms followed a similar development but clearly 1987 was more optimum. The 1987 storm was slower and further to the west when it developed. This morning’s storm was too much in the jet stream and raced on with less development.

Both the 2013 storm, left, and the 1987 storm followed a similar track as shown on these satellite pictures
Both the 2013 storm, left, and the 1987 storm followed a similar track as shown on these satellite pictures

From the forecasts made at the end of last week into the weekend it was about what I expected in terms of intensity – though I thought the peak of the max gusts (47.2mph at 0653) would have been shorter. Rainfall from the event was unremarkable – just 17.5mm which started falling around 9pm on Sunday and stopped around 5am. Totals north of Watford were far greater. This rainfall radar image at 0645 was taken within 10 minutes of the highest gust in Wanstead.

Rainfall radar image at 0645 - less than 10 minutes before the highest gust in Wanstead. Notice the curl of the cloud - this is where the sting jet gets its name as it looks like a scorpion's tail. Thanks to MeteoX
Rainfall radar image at 0645 – less than 10 minutes before the highest gust in Wanstead. Notice the curl of the cloud – this is where the sting jet gets its name as it looks like a scorpion’s tail. Thanks to MeteoX

Stations similar to here in Woodford Wells and Laindon all reported maximum gusts of 47-53mph, though with these being sheltered gardens the reality was probably higher – perhaps severe gale force 9 was reached at the storm’s peak here. Andrewsfield, near Braintree, North Essex, recorded 79mph. An animation of the storm’s track clearly shows the path of the sting jet. The Met Office have also released a satellite sequence of events. Of course the storm is no comparison with the Great Storm of October 1987, where a gust of 122 mph was recorded in Gorleston, Norfolk, but this morning’s storm was probably in the top 5 of storms since – and the most potent since the Burns’ Day storm of January 1990.

The tree damage in Wanstead has been worse than I would have expected with a few down on Christchurch Green. My own back yard in Aldersbrook seems to have got off lightly though a small flowering cherry on the corner of Dover Road succumbed. On closure inspection the inside of the trunk was spongy – testament to the fungus that I’d noted had been growing on it recently. Elsewhere, in Wanstead Park, some trees were sadly lost. Friends of Wanstead Park give a brief account of the damage here.

After it left Suffolk the storm raced across the North Sea, still deepening all the while, and caused havoc in Belgium and the Netherlands. Much has been said about the UK media’s obsession with the storm which chiefly affected the south east but Belgian and Dutch news outlets also focussed on the weather. In Brussels people were virtually blown along the street. Falling trees blocked canals in Amsterdam where a cyclist narrowly escaped being hit by a falling tree. There were no reports of deaths across the Channel and some watersports fanatics took full advantage of the wild conditions. The storm, which at one point developed an ‘eye‘, continued its destruction across Germany where this home was almost totally destroyed.

This car had a lucky escape
This car had a lucky escape
The synoptic situation at 0600z on October 29, 2013
The synoptic situation at 0600z on October 28, 2013
Top  30 windiest places for 0600 UTC, on Friday, October 16, 1987
Top 30 windiest places for 0600 UTC, on Friday, October 16, 1987
top 30 windiest places at 0600 UTC on Monday, October 28, 2013
top 30 windiest places at 0600 UTC on Monday, October 28, 2013

Heathrow: another reason to hate those mild southwesterlies

Southwesterly winds have returned with a vengeance this week after being mostly absent for large parts of this year. The airmass to our west is pumping very mild and balmy air from a warmer than normal north Atlantic, bringing a mix of blustery winds and rain. It has also seen the return of the constant whine of planes on the flightpath into Heathrow, to enable the preferred method of landing into the wind.

Heathrow flightpath when the wind blows from the west
Heathrow flightpath when the wind blows from the west

As they reach the Wanstead area the jets turn, approximately 6,000ft up, for their final approach into the UK’s only hub airport. 
On a Monday the din begins with the overnight arrivals from the Far East. Today the 04:50 BA flight from Hong Kong, was delayed, giving residents under the flightpath a 10 minute reprieve until 5am when another BA flight, from Singapore, began its final approach. On a clear day 44 flights land every hour at Heathrow, or one plane every 1.36 minutes. And this figure is without the air traffic flying into and out of City.
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The flightpath taken during an easterly wind diverts flights to the north and south of London
The flightpath taken during an easterly wind diverts flights to the north and south of London

The congested flightpath during a westerly landing regime is in sharp comparison to an easterly landing regime – when the final turns occur over more rural areas. To give you some idea of what that looks like here is a time-lapse video of the jets landing

As noise goes Wanstead gets off lightly in comparison with places like Hounslow. Though the dB are vastly reduced over our part of town the noise is very noticeable on quiet streets first thing in the morning. A recent study suggested that there is a link between aircraft noise and increased risk of heart disease.

Heathrow and many business leaders want a third runway at Heathrow which is currently running to near capacity. They argue that without extra capacity the UK economy will greatly suffer. The owner of Heathrow argue that their case is the cheapest and quickest way to fix the UK’s capacity problem. Constructing a third runway is estimated to cost £18bn and would open between 2025 and 2029.

The London Mayor, Boris Johnson, on the other hand, wants a new hub to be built in the Thames estuary, at an estimated cost of £96bn. He is vehemently against expanding Heathrow, which exposes 250,000 west Londoners to extreme noise, and would like it closed.

The strength of Heathrow Airport Holdings’ case stems from how it is likely to be the cheapest and quickest way to fix Britain’s hub capacity crunch. Building a third runway could cost up to £18bn and would open between 2025 and 2029.

Contrast that with the estimated £96bn bill and 2029 opening target for a proposed new hub in the Thames estuary, although Boris Johnson, London’s mayor, says the net cost to the taxpayer would be £25bn once the new airport was privatised. Mr Johnson is a vociferous opponent of expanding Heathrow, which is Europe’s noisiest airport with almost 250,000 west London residents exposed to jet din. He wants it closed down.

Many commentators say his favoured solution of an estuary airport is pie in the sky – but with China keen to spend money on infrastructure in other countries you have to wonder ‘Why not!’. Hong Kong solved their own capacity problems at Kai Tak with the construction of an airport on reclaimed land at Chep Lap Kok off Lantau Island. The facility is designed by Lord Foster who has also designed a blueprint for the Thames estuary.

Not a week goes by without alternative plans to solve London’s capacity crunch being put forward – from Heathrow’s third runway to an option of second runways at Gatwick and Stansted. What many don’t seem to be talking about is the option of developing Manston in Kent.

As someone who has visited the area frequently over the past few years there seems to have been a disproportionate amount spent on infrastructure to what would normally pass for improvements to a region. 

Roads around the airport have been dualled (not to alleviate any current traffic problems). Many Holiday Inn-type hotels seem to be springing up – always a sign that big money is about to move in. The HS1 fast train line has vastly speeded up travel times to the area – it wouldn’t cost much to extend a loop right in to what is now Kent International Airport / Manston). There’s also the redundant Pfizer site – which is linked to the airport via the new dual carriageway. Rumours around the fate of this site include a business park and new Hollywood studio.
 
The existing runway is one of the longest in Europe – it used to be on Nasa’s list of emergency landing sites for the Space Shuttle because of its huge length.
I think the airport is already host to a lot of air freight – judging by the number of 747 cargo planes you see landing. Other factors in Manston’s favour is the approach to the runway. Obviously it would be grim for anyone living in the coastal towns there in terms of noise – but it’s millions less than residential areas around Heathrow.
The area is also in dire need of job opportunities and is among the most deprived in the south-east.
 
Whatever is agreed it is a decision that is bound to be unpopular.

A warm North Atlantic is cranking autumn into life

Image

On looking at NOAA’s sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Atlantic tonight there seems to be a lot of orange (warmer than usual) off the coast of Ireland across the pond to the US.
A lot of energy therefore has to be displaced before we can start thinking about any sustained cold weather – and is a big part of the reason why the Atlantic has kicked back into life.

The jet stream is centred over us
The jet stream is centred over us
Expect a succession of depressions, driven along by a brisk jet stream (currently right over us blowing at over 100knts) to whistle across us in the next 10 to 14 days bringing very mild temperatures together with a mix of rain, blustery winds and sunshine. Any HP ridges will probably be short-lived – though equally any rainfall should be average. In these situations most of the rain falls over western parts of the British Isles.

So, in summary, a changeable spell is coming up – just like autumn should be

Will England be poleaxed by probability again?

Two anniversaries will stick in the minds of England fans tonight. The first happened this same week, the second happened this same night. Both were national tragedies.

It is 40 years ago almost to the day that a decent England side failed to beat Poland and thus did not qualify for the 1974 World Cup. Jan Tomaszewski, the Polish keeper dismissed as a ‘clown’ before the game by Brian Clough, pulled off a string of outstanding saves during a cold, damp night at Wembley, effectively booking his team’s place in Germany at the expense of Alf Ramsey’s England.

Fourteen years later what was dismissed as an innocuous looking low in the English Channel turned into one of the worst storms in English history, with 100mph winds causing massive devastation across the country and killing 18 people. The Great Storm of 1987  also toppled about 15 million trees, including six of the famous old oaks in the town of Sevenoaks, Kent. A nation was left poleaxed again.

The weather tonight will bear little resemblance to 26 years ago though will not be too dissimilar to that fateful night at Wembley. The damp, cold conditions coming after a week that was dominated by low pressure – the similarities are striking.  october73

So before we write off Poland tonight and believe that England just have to turn up to qualify for Brazil next year bear in mind that football, just like the weather, is about probability. And sometimes those probabilities, no matter how remote, can work against our favour.

Jean Michel Jarre’s Destination Docklands

jarre adIn the autumn of 1988 Jean Michel Jarre staged Destination Docklands – two concerts of lights, lasers, fireworks and music set amid the derelict Royal Docks of east London.

The concerts nearly didn’t happen though. After what seemed like months struggling against council bureaucracy and satisfying concerns over safety Team Jarre were faced with another nightmare on the day: the Great British weather. A howling force 7 westerly hampered preparations for the first concert on the morning of October 8th – a day which turned out to be the wettest day of 1988. Nearly an inch of rain soaked the grandstands and dock area – but the water was the least of production crews worries…

The floating stage, a giant 30m by 40m ‘battleship’ constructed on top of 16 huge steel barges towed down from the north of England especially for the event, was supposed to move from one end of Royal Victoria Dock to the other. But with 400 tonnes of material on board it was thought safer to leave it locked in its berth – leaving whole sections of the crowd in temporary grandstands wondering where the Frenchman was twiddling his knobs. Not that it mattered.

One of the many illustrations of the event by Mark Fisher

Jarre’s outdoor son et lumieres have always been about the spectacle as a whole with searchlights, lasers and fireworks exploding in time to the music. As with his record-breaking Houston show two years prior giant hand-painted Panni images were projected on to buildings – this time the freshly-painted Spillers Millennium Mills building.

If anything the constant wind and intermittent rain added to drama of the show that took the spectator from the Industrial Revolution through the Swingin’ Sixties up to the 1990s. Jarre was joined on stage by Hank Marvin for London Kid and Rendezvous IV. Mireille Pombo and a choir from Mali also joined Jarre on stage for September, a piece he dedicated to Dulcie September, a South African anti-apartheid political activist, who was assassinated in Paris, France, in March of that year.

The concerts were watched by 200,000 people in the Royal Docks area and thousands more in the surrounding streets and parks.

The Royal Docks have come a long way since the concert. Where the crowd stood is now home to the excellent ExCeL exhibition centre. The fledgling London City airport has grown into a convenient European hub. The small STOL planes bound for Edinburgh and Rotterdam have been joined by BAe 146 jets – even though the airport’s initial promise was to refrain from using jets.

A cable car can now whisk you across the Thames and there are plans to turn the adjacent Royal Albert Dock into a tech hub for China.

There’s some footage of the months of preparation that went into the concert on YouTube. The Making of Destination Docklands sets the scene of the difficulties of putting the show together – and includes some fascinating footage of a wasteland that was the Royal Victoria Dock.

Part One of the Mike Mansfield edit of the concert can be found here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z88QqTskJ4c

Spillers Millennium Mill was repainted 25 years ago especially for the concert. It now provides the backdrop for the London Triathlon across from the ExCeL centre
Spillers Millennium Mill was repainted especially for the concert. It now provides the backdrop for the London Triathlon across from the ExCeL centre

August 10, 2003: UK’s hottest day ever

The UK’s hottest day was recorded on August 10, 2003, when temperatures across the south-east soared above 38C for the first time.

The weather station at Brogdale, the home of the national fruit collection, near Faversham, Kent
The weather station at Brogdale, the home of the national fruit collection, near Faversham, Kent

A study since then has uncovered that the 38.5C (101.3F) value may be anomalous after it became apparent that the Brogdale value was nearly 2C higher than nearby stations – a fact that would normally rule out such a reading. The actual site also leaves something to be desired with the leylandii hedge being too close to the met enclosure – and possibly helping up the temperature. Scientists are a fussy lot and like things to be done properly – believing that the figure of 38.1C recorded at Kew and Gravesend  on August 10 represents the true record.

But the Met Office refuse to budge and are sticking with Brogdale.

I recorded 38.4C in my own back garden – but because it is not an official site it doesn’t count. Other sites close by also set records that day: 37.9C was reached at Epping while another observer at Woodford Green recorded 36.5C at 2.30pm.

Being the weather anorak I am my memories of that day are still very clear. The birth of my first daughter was imminent and my wife and I were frantically trying to finish the kitchen of our house in Leytonstone. I’d borrowed a van off a mate that day to pick up kitchen units from the Stansted area. The old Renault Master didn’t have air conditioning and a faulty fan made the cabin feel like an oven. As we trundled back down the M11 from our trip to ‘You’re Furnished’ I wound down the window to experience what I can only describe as like being blasted with a hairdryer. Obviously anything above normal body temperature of 37C is going to feel warm  – the opposite of the windchill factor you get in winter. Somehow, through all the heat and pouring with sweat, we managed to unload the van at the other end and completed the kitchen.

screenThe day was the peak of the heatwave with just a couple more 30C days before, much to the relief of my wife, cooler weather arrived. Our daughter was born, over two weeks past her due date, on September 7. A sunny, fresh morning I’ll also never forget.

People often ask if it is possible that the record will be broken. Of course with the right synoptics anything is possible. And official records in the UK, and the world, are just a blip of what has gone before. Diaries of events during the July 1808 heatwave, mentioning accounts of people and livestock dropping dead in fields and birds dropping out of the sky, suggest that somewhere in Lincolnshire possibly saw the temperature exceed 40C.

44
44 UK stations recorded values of 30C and over

A report in today’s Express suggests that a heatwave could be on the way. Unless they are looking at a different set of charts I think the report is probably more to boost their sales – figures show that every time the paper splashes on the weather sales spike 10%.

While we may still see the odd hot day, as we did last Thursday when I recorded the year’s second-highest temperature of 33.6C, I don’t think we are going to see a sustained run of 30C plus temperatures. More *heatspike* than *heatwave*. August is likely to be average overall.

Scott Whitehead
@wanstead_meteo
http://www.wansteadweather.co.uk

Meteorology-based musings about east London and beyond

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