I’ve seen this phrase uttered more than once over the past couple of days thanks to high temperatures and humidity. But ask anyone to define a hot day and you’ll get a different answer every time.
Growing up in the 1970s / 80s redtop newspapers would use the phrase once the mercury was nudging 80F (26.7C). But to ‘scorch’ you need sunshine, preferably at least 10 hours of it. Considering statistics from the Heathrow airport climate station in west London there have been 463 scorchers since 1959, the most recent happening on July 5th with 29.5C recorded and 13.9 hours of sunshine. There have now been 9 scorchers this year, already matching the number that were recorded in 2014 and only 3 short of last year.
But even with last month’s heatwave this year has some way to go, however, to match the amount measured in 1976 and 1995: 31 days!
The mean temperature for May 2017 of 14.7C was 1.6C above average; the warmest for six years and the 11th warmest in a local series going back to 1797.
Sunset on May 1st 2017
Despite the first ten days of the month continuing the dry spell that has plagued London for months the total recorded finished above average: 62.5mm rainfall (122% of the 1981-2010), the wettest May for three years.
Though the month finished warm with some cracking sunny days the first two-thirds of the month were relatively dull: 157.1hrs of sunshine were recorded which is 86% of average, the dullest for 13 years.
I published my summer forecast on June 1st. It’s looking average.
Here follows the full weather diary for May. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv
1st: Cloudy all day with just a few bright intervals.
2nd: Sunny and clear morning, cloud bubbled up at noon. Cloud thickened with very light drizzle at 8pm.
3rd: Cloudy, dull with occasional very light drizzle.
4th: Cloudy and feeling chilly all day. Odd drizzle.
5th: Sunny start though cloud thickened quickly to leave an overcast though bright, breezy afternoon.
6th: Cloudy all day with a couple of bright spells.
7th: Cloudy and cool start, cloud decreasing after noon, eventually clearing to leave long sunny spells at 5pm.
8th: Cloudy and cool start – the cloud sticking all day and felt chilly.
9th: Cloudy and cool start, cloud decreased late afternoon but did not completely clear until 5am, saving area from frost. -2.8C in Benson!
10th: Sunny and mostly clear into the afternoon with patchy cirrus.
11th: Sunny and humid to start with much high-level cirrus. Breezy too. Showers overnight.
12th: Cloudy start, one or two light showers before a brief heavy one at 2pm. Sunny spells developed late afternoon.
13th: Cloudy start before cloud decreased to long sunny spells in afternoon. Cloudier overnight with showers between 7am and 8am.
14th: Sunny spells and breezy. Cloudier overnight with shower at 7am.
15th: Light rain and showers through the morning, clearing in the afternoon to sunny intervals.
16th: Bright start with cloud decreasing. Some very warm sunny spells – felt like summer for first time. Light rain in the evening though it didn’t start falling consistently until 2am with heaviest fall arriving at 4am.
17th: Bright start with plenty of sunny spells. Showery rain arrived at noon, turning more persistent at 4pm, clearing around 10pm.
18th: Bright start with lots of sunshine. Cloud began thickening at 1pm with bursts of light rain. Persistent rain arrived at 3.30pm and was still moderate to heavy at 10pm. Started petering out at midnight but then two further showers at 3am and 5am.
19th: Showery with longer spells of rain. This tended to clear to sunny spells. Thunder in the evening with a brief heavy shower at 6.23pm.
20th: Sunny, warm and breezy morning to 1pm.
21st: Sunny start with cumulus bubbling up. Sunny spells thereafter, growing longer as day wore on. Still 20C at 6pm during first Music in Wanstead Park. Overcast early but cloud started to break around 8am.
22nd: Sunny with decreasing cloud, clear by 1pm with just patchy cirrus.
23rd: Cloudy start with sunny spells mid morning, turning mostly cloudy again though.
24th: Bright start with variable cloud and sunny spells.
25th: Sunny with variable cloud at obs time, the cloud quickly clearing though a convection line could be seen in the west from Essex.
26th: Sunny and clear though breezy. Long sunny spells through the day. Feeling hot. Thunder and brief downpour between 8.30am and 9am.
27th: Sunny though only after front had cleared. Then alternating cloudy to sunny. More cloud late afternoon and not feeling as nice as forecast.
28th: Sunny start with variable cloud though the day. Rain in the evening before storm arrived at 1am, the rain turning heavier at 1.45am and lasting till just gone 3am.
29th: Cloudy start though soon turning brighter. Feeling humid with occasional very light rain.
30th: Cloudy but bright with the odd break. Feeling fresher
31st: Bright start with plenty of holes in the alto cumulus. Cloudier in the afternoon
The driest April since 2011 was also the seventh driest in a local record going back to 1797. Just 4.3mm fell, nearly half of which was recorded on the final day.
An ‘absolute drought’ that began in March coincided with the month; a run of 26 days with a daily total of <0.2mm! Dry early springs seem to be becoming a pattern in this area with eight of the last 11 Aprils being notably dry.
Though the mean temperature for April finished a fraction above average – 10.6C is 0.8C above average – it was a month of two halves. The month started warm with the temperature peaking at 25.4C on the 9th – Sunday of what was a warm weekend in London.
A polar low on 24th brought an unseasonably cold end to the month with cold days and night frost. Thunder was recorded on 26th and was accompanied by <5mm hail.
The total sunshine hours were just above average: 178.4 hours is 111% of the 1981-2010 average.
The wettest day occurred on the 30th with 2mm.
Air frosts: 1, Ground frosts: 7
Looking ahead, I think May will be another slightly milder than avrage month and continuing much drier than average.
Here follows the full weather diary for April. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv
1st: Cloudy into the late morning before some cloud breaks appeared. Brief shower and some warm sunshine but cooler than lately. Cold in early evening and cloud breaks overnight.
2nd: Sunny with variable cumulus. Variable cloud through the day and chilly overnight
Sunny with bubbly cumulus. 3rd: Cloudy but with bright breaks and blue sky in distance.
4th: Sunny and pleasant early with bubbly cumulus – this lasted all day.
5th: Sunny with just a few cumulus.
6th: Sunny with just a few wispy cumulus floating around, slight haze.
7th: Sunny and gin clear.
8th: Sunny spells with a few cumulus. Much cooler.
9th: Sunny with some cirrus and cumulus.
10th: Sunny though with lots of cloud at times.
11th: Sunny start then clouded over then sunnier again with cloudier periods.
12th: Early sunny spells, the cloud thickening by 11.30pm to leave a mostly cloudy afternoon. 13th: Cloudy though high base made it seem bright. Feeling chilly. A shower overnight.
14th: Bright start though with plenty of cloud around. Clear spells overnight.
15th: Sunny early though cloud increasing – a very light shower at 2.15pm.
16th: Cloudy, dull and cool. Some brightness at 2pm but then cloud thickened and breeze freshened to leave a cold afternoon.
17th: Sunny with variable cloud – clear overnight with ground frost.
18th: Sunny with broken cloud to start.
19th: Sunny start but clouded over, then sunny intervals.
20th: Cloud and mild all day.
21st: Very light drizzle to start then heavy cloud. Drizzle turned to light rain in Beckton but dry in Aldersbrook.
22nd: Bright start with broken cloud.
23rd: Bright early with patchy cirrus and altocumulus then completely cloudy and chilly. 24th: Some spots of rain around before moderate shower arrived at 5pm with 0.54mm falling.
25th: Sunny, clear start in polar air before cloud bubbled up around 10.30am. Then sunny spells – dew point stayed around or below freezing all day.
26th: Overcast and chilly with a cold breeze.
27th: Sunny, frosty start but cloud quickly bubbling up. Felt chilly.
28th: Mostly cloudy with the odd sunny spell
29th: Bright start but quickly turning cloudy
30th: Sunny early but gradually clouded over with rain at 1am. This stopped around 2am with small fall before 9am.
The unearthing of an ancient Egyptian statue, initially thought to be of the pharaoh Ramses II, in a Cairo suburb earlier this month reminded me of the mysterious stone that was discovered in Wanstead Park in 2014.
The mystery stone on the banks of Heronry Pond
The granite object, discovered partly buried in undergrowth on the banks of Heronry Pond, was initially thought to be part of the long-lost pyramidion (or capstone) of Tia, overseer of the treasury in the time of Ramses II, from his tomb at Saqqara in the Aswan region.
Though tests made last year at Reading University suggested otherwise the fate of the stone that once had pride of place in the American garden of Wanstead House remains a mystery.
The capstone was placed in the park as part of a landscaping project in 1784. Humphry Repton, the landscape gardener who devised plans in 1813-18, described Wanstead Park as “one of the most magnificent places in this country”.
Unfortunately, owner William Wellesley Pole’s debts caught up with him and the estate’s riches were sold off at auction, including the intriguing stone which was labelled Lot 279.
The catalogue of the 1822 auction
The auction on June 10th coincided with the hottest day of 1822 with the temperature peaking at 92°F. Evening thunderstorms brought some relief but the capstone remained unsold.
A catalogue of the 30-day event showed that Lot 279 was the last item to be sold, being bought by the auctioneer himself who immediately gave it to his son-in-law to display in his garden at Tamworth Castle. There is no evidence, however, that the stone ever reached Tamworth.
Though rainfall during the summer of 1822 was average much of it fell in cloudbursts. Luke Howard’s records in nearby Stratford for June and July reveal many days with maxima well into the 80s and destructive thunderstorms with deadly lightning and hail, some of which measured three inches in diameter.
Archaeologists at the dig in January 2015
It is possible that faced with transporting a very heavy lump of granite some 135 miles on a horse drawn cart on unmade, waterlogged roads those charged with the task instead quietly slid the stone into one of Wanstead Park’s lakes.
Ralph Potter, a member of Friends of Wanstead Parklands, has been following the story of the stone since it was discovered. He explained the reason behind why he thinks the stone’s origin is inconclusive: “Probably the world’s most eminent authority on stone from the Aswan quarries has declared, based on photos alone, that the stone does not originate from Aswan. On the other hand we have an eminent petrologist who within minutes of seeing the stone declared it almost certainly came from the quarry complex at Aswan.”
*A full history of the mystery of Lot 279, written by Chris Elliott, can be found here
**A chronicle of Wanstead Park, written by Alan Cornish, can be found here.
***The statue pulled from the mud in a Cairo suburb is thought to be most likely the first king of the 26th Dynasty of Egypt — Psamtek I .
Wanstead House (Wikimedia Commons)
Luke Howard’s entries in the Climate of London at the end of July tell of a very stormy period of weather
This year finished as the 14th warmest on record – some 0.5C warmer than the 1981-2010 average – though 0.2C cooler than 2015.
Only four months of 2016 were below average temperature-wise
Six months of 2016 were roughly average – the means being within +/-0.7 every month, bringing the mean temperature to 11.7C.
Rainfall was less remarkable with the year being a little drier than average. The total of 561mm (93% of 1981-2010 average) puts it as the 122nd wettest since 1797, just 8mm wetter than 2015.
It was also a slightly duller than average year with 1,390 hours of sunshine recorded. That’s 93 per cent of average, the 92nd sunniest since 1881 – the least amount of sunshine for 12 years.
November 2016 was the sunniest in a record going back to 1881. Some 91 hours were recorded, 156 per cent above average and a complete contrast to last November which was the dullest for 47 years.
The temperature in the early hours of the 30th fell to -6.1C, colder than any night last winter and the coldest since January 2013
The mean temperature for the month finished 6.4C, that’s 1.5C below the 1981-2010 average ; 4C cooler than last year and the coldest November since 2010. The warmest day occurred on the 15th with 15.9C recorded. The first air frosts of autumn were recorded. The lowest temperature occurred on the 29th when the spirit fell to -6.1C.
Rainfall was 135 per cent of average with 80.1mm recorded. The wettest day was on the 19th when 23.5mm of rain fell.
The sunniest days were on the 2nd, 13th and 25th when eight hours of sunshine were recorded.
Air frosts: 4, Ground frosts: 19
The dolphin-shape of this radar image shows Storm Angus before it hit the south coast. The system stayed far enough south of us not to cause any damage in London
What has December got in store weatherwise? The models suggest the high pressure that has been anchored over us, bringing cold nights, will pull away to the continent. This will allow an ever milder but mostly dry source of air off the Atlantic through to mid month. Days will grow milder while frost and fog will feature less at night.
Beyond the grasp of the models my long range outlook method suggests an coldmonth is most likely at 43 per cent probability. Average comes in at 29 per cent probability while rather mild and rather cold are both 14 per cent probabilities.
Rainfall looks finely balanced. Wetter and dryer than average both come in at 43% probability while average is 14 per cent. Given the influence of high pressure at the beginning of the month I’m inclined to think it will be a drier than average month.
So, to sum up, we’re looking at a mean of 4.4C, rainfall: 55mm, sunshine: 39hrs.
My forecast last month was good: predicted mean 6.8C (result 6.4C). Rainfall: 55mm (result 80mm). Sunshine was way off, however – predicted total: 41hrs (result 91hrs)
I have also published a winter forecast covering the London area that you can find here.
Here follows the full weather diary for November…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y
1st: Cloudy and mild all day. Patchy drizzle at times.
2nd: Sunny, cold start after first ground frost of the autumn.
3rd: Sunny, cold start with cirrostratus and cumulus drifting around. Cloud thickened through the afternoon with some light rain around 9pm.
4th: Cloudy, dull start up to 11am. Rain pushed in and lasted for much of afternoon, clearing in evening.
5th: Cloudy, cold and damp start. Some brightness though with a cold wind.
6th: Sunny, cold start, tending to cloud in. Rain after 3pm. Feeling cold but too windy for a frost overnight.
7th: Sunny, cold and very breezy to start, the cloud tending to fill in through the day. Clearer overnight though too much cloud and occasional air prevented an air frost.
8th: Sunny and cold start. Cloud thickened during the day to bring rain after dark at 8pm that then fell through the night – the biggest fall since Brexit day.
9th: Light rain slowly clearing to cloud.
1oth: Cloudy start with light rain showers around 10.30am then cloudy. Some sunny intervals in the afternoon. Milder.
11th: Bright start with cloud decreasing through the morning to leave a pleasant and clear afternoon.
12th: Miserable and rainy to start, this lasting past 11.15am. Drizzle thereafter into 6pm.
13th: Sunny start though cloud tended to fill in through the day. Damp overnight with patchy drizzle.
14th: Cloudy and damp start with some breeze. Brief brightness at noon but patchy drizzle moved in around 4pm.
15th: Cloudy and miserable though very mild.
16th: Sunny start and very mild though cloud tended to fill in during the day making the sunshine milky.
17th: Bright, breezy start, the breeze increasing until a squall blew through at 2.40pm then sunny spells.
18th: Bright start with milky sunshine then tending to cloud over. Feeling cold.
19th: Bright sunshine though cold to start. Patchy altocumulus developed through the day, leaving it to become bright, the strength of the sun diminishing. Rain started around 6pm and fell through night with varying intensity.
20th: Dull and cloudy start with rain returning at 10am. Cloudy afternoon with rain returning late evening and through the night, some heavier bursts.
21st: Cloudy with showers past noon. Heavier showers moved in mid afternoon and fell into the evening.
22nd: Cloudy with a few very light showers around. Breezy.
23rd: Cloudy and breezy. Feeling mild.
24th: Cloudy and mostly dull with brief brightness at noon.
25th: Sunny with just a few cumulus around.
26th: Sunny start but low cloud blotted out the sun around midday then cloudy and cool.
27th: Cloudy and mild.
28th Sunny all day with just a few cumulus floating around.
29th: Sunny all day with frost persisting on grass in shade.
30th: Sunny and very frosty start. Frost persisting on the grass all day with a very cold start to the night. A veil of cloud crossed the region late evening, lifting the temperature above freezing, before clearing before dawn
Last month was the second warmest September in a local record going back to 1797! The monthly mean finished 17.8C, 2.4C above average. Despite being an ‘autumn’ month September was actually a full degree warmer than June!
September 2016 was the second warmest in a local record back to 1797, though we’re talking by fewer than tenths of a degree.
The hottest September day since 1959 was recorded on the 13th when 33.1C was reached, the sixth equal hottest in the local daily record back to 1848.
The month also saw the warmest minimum recorded since 1959 when the mercury failed to fall below 18.7C on the 6th.
It was another very dry month, the third much drier than average month in a row: just 27.7mm fell, 24 per cent of average, making it the driest September since since 2007 and the 12th driest in the local record.
Like August, the month only falls down in terms of impressiveness when sunshine hours are considered. Some 119 hours were recorded, that’s 85 per cent of average, making it the dullest September for 15 years.
Air frosts: 0, Ground frosts: 0
So what has September got in store weatherwise? The models on the 1st suggest that a large Scandinavian high will become established to our NE bringing lots of settled weather and showers on coasts. There’s obviously the chance of trough disruption as the month progresses if the anticyclone’s influence declines.
Beyond the grasp of the models my usual long range outlook method falls down this month due to September’s warmth and dryness – there is nothing within +/- 10% of September’s statistics. I would guess, however, that we are looking at another drier than average month with frost becoming a risk as the month progresses where skies clear. There is also the chance of more pleasant autumn days where skies are clear during the day.
My September outlook for temperature was poor. I predicted a mean of 15.3C (outcome: 17.8C). It was much, much drier than I thought: 300mm (outcome: 27.7mm). Sunshine was poor: 140 hours (outcome: 119 hours).
Here follows the full weather diary for September…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y
1st: Sunny start but cloud gradually increased until it was overcast by 6pm. Clear spells overnight but warmer than previous nights.
2nd: Cloudy though some brighter intervals.
3rd: Sunny start, cloud began to pile in at 12.30pm with rain arriving at 5.30pm, this fell through the evening with some showers in the early hours.
4th: Bright, breezy start but rapidly turning cloudy and dull. Some rain overnight.
5th: Light rain and dull to start – this quickly clearing to cloud by 3pm. Things remained cloudy with a muggy night.
6th: Cloudy, dull and muggy start after warmest September night on record. Another warm night though muggy.
7th: Cloudy to 11am though sun breaking through as drier air arrived. Feeling humid.
8th: Sunny start but with plenty of cumulus, this quickly decreasing to leave clear sky.
9th: Cloudy morning though sky seemed to periodically clear of low cumulus before becoming overcast and very breezy in the afternoon. Some rain overnight and just before obs time.
10th: Cloudy start with patchy light rain, this briefly turning heavy at 1pm before turning occasionally moderate. Dreadful afternoon after recently. Clearing overnight to leave a sunny start.
11th: A glorious sunny day with only the odd patch of cirrus.
12th: Bright start with some sunshine, clouding over with a few splodges of rain with warm front. Then sunny and very warm.
13th: Sunny start with a few cirrus and castalanus around. Breezy at times with the thermals. The warmest September day since 1959 and 6th equal warmest since 1848.
14th: Sunny start with a few cirrus. A few patches of alto-cumulus later. Very warm but not as hot as yesterday. Warm, pleasant evening. 15th: Sunny with a few wispy cumulus, clearing to hot sunshine. Some alto-cumulus developed at 2pm and towering cumulus could be seen in distance. Thunderstorms reporting to NW of London. Cloudy and warm overnight with eight peals of thunder in the early hours and heavy rain.
16th: Light to moderate rain through the morning, petering out at 1.30pm.
17th: Cloudy, cool and breezy all day, at times dull.
18th: Cloudy all day, a bit warmer than the previous two days.
19th: Cloudy start though with sun breaking through briefly at 11am until 1pm then cloudy again. Rain at 1am that didn’t last long enough to register.
20th: Cloudy and fairly calm – a nothing day with odd very light drizzle.
21st: Bright start with cloud breaking to long spells of sunshine before more cloud moved in. Warmer than of late.
22nd: Cloudy but sun broke through giving pleasant afternoon and cool overnight.
23rd: Sunny, gin clear and cold start. Just a few fair weather cumulus through the day.
24th: Sunny start with cloud decreasing. Very warm in sun but cloud and breeze built through the day. Overnight light rain between 6am and 9am.
25th: Bright start after overnight light rain.
26th: Bright start with a few cloud breaks here and there. Heavy shower at 12.15pm with further threat of rain but stayed dry.
27th: Bright start with signs of a cold front moving in from south then cloudy.
28th: Sunny start with patchy cirrus, this tending to thicken at lunchtime to turn mostly overcast with humidity increasing. Breeze also picked up with reappearance of sun mid afternoon. Cloudy, very mild and breezy rest of the day.
29th: Cold front and brief heavy rain swept in at 10.03am. Then intermittent falls until 11.23am.
30th: Sunny, gin-clear start, patchy cumulus bubbling up at 10.30am. Cloud grew thicker around 12 noon with brief shower at 1pm. Then sunny spells and cloudier periods. Another shower just after nightfall then clear. Cloud moved in after 2am with another shower. Early sunshine gave way to moderate showers around 9.45am.
I don’t usually bother trying to forecast autumn or spring given that there is far less interest in them than winter and summer. However, given the heightened interest in this year’s hurricane season and emboldened, perhaps foolishly, by my reasonably correct summer forecast I decided to have a look at the stats and see if I can find any signs where autumn in east London may be headed.
Using the method for my seasonal forecasts resulted in a shortlist of 26 summers that were similar to 2016.
Because the NOAA ENSO index only goes back to the 1950 I decided to disregard all years prior to this date to try to make any results more reliable. This narrowed down the list to 11 years.
With these considered I then searched for years that had a similar ENSO index to June (0.1 – neutral) with a tendency to turn negative (La Nina). This narrowed the field further to three years: 1999, 1992 and 1964. However, the only year that is showing signs of being similar with regard to where the ENSO index is forecast to be heading is 1964.
Although, so far, there has been an uptick in hurricane activity similar to 1964 there is, of course, the added consideration that Saharan dust is playing a part in impeding the formation of these tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico – something the weather models seem to struggle to get a grip on.
With this in mind perhaps there will also be lower than usual instances of these storms crossing the Atlantic to affect the UK: hence a quiet autumn though, on a national scale, interpersed with the odd interest from the Atlantic. In London, perhaps we can expect something very similar to what is listed on the excellent website: http://www.london-weather.eu/article.103.html
Summer 2016 turned out to be a very decent season overall, the mean temperature of 18.7C (1.1C above average) made it the sixth warmest summer since 1797.
While it wasn’t quite up there with the hot summers of 1976 and 2003 it still produced some notable records. The stormy beginning to June effectively ended with the Brexit vote, a period of 24 hours that coincided with the highest daily rainfall this area has seen since at least 1959.
The multi-cell thunderstorm in the early hours of June 23rd produced 60.8mm of rainfall, nearly half of the month’s total which became the third wettest June in a record going back to 1797. The high rainfall was in complete contrast to July and August and helped skew the overall figure: 168.6mm is 114 per cent over average summer rainfall.
With so much rainfall overall sunshine was affected with only 451 hours recorded, just 80 per cent of what can be expected in an average summer.
July produced another record, this time the highest overnight minimum recorded since 1959. The minimum of 21.1C was recorded during the early hours of the 20th – coming hours after the hottest day of the year: 33.5C – the 14th hottest day on record.
The warm and very dry theme continued into the final month of summer with the warmest August for 12 years, the 10th warmest and 12th driest since 1797.
My summer forecast, when the monthly probabilities are considered, was broadly correct though I didn’t estimate correctly just how warm it would be.
Though there were no records broken August 2016 goes down as a mighty fine summer month, the warmest for 12 years. The mean of 19.5C was 1.3C warmer than average and only 0.1C cooler than 2004.
Grasslands around Wanstead Park have gradually turned brown because of the lack of rainfall
The month ended a three-year run of poor or so-so Augusts: in terms of mean temperature the month was the 10th warmest in a local series going back to 1797.
It was another very dry month: just 11.9mm fell, 24 per cent of average, the driest August since 2003 and the 12th driest in the local record.
The month only falls down in terms of impressiveness when sunshine hours are considered. Some 192 hours were recorded, the 59th sunniest since 1797 – 1995 had 80hrs more sun.
Air frosts: 0, Ground frosts: 0
So what has September got in store weatherwise? The models on the 1st suggest the month will start mixed, though any precipitation will be below average. Temperatures remaining on the warm side.
Beyond the grasp of the models my long range outlook method is again hampered by a very dry August. However, the data I do have suggests an average month at 100 per cent probability.
A wetter than average month looks most likely at 75% probability.
The rainfall probability makes me wonder whether we are in for a very unsettled second half of September, the Atlantic cranking into life with the remnants of tropical storms and hurricanes having an ever-increasing influence as the month progresses.
So to sum up: mean 15.3C (average), rainfall 162mm (300%), sunshine 140 hours (100%).
My August outlook for temperature was good. I predicted a mean of 19C (outcome: 19.5C). It was drier than I thought: 30.3mm (outcome: 11.9mm). Sunshine was poor: 239 hours (outcome: 192 hours).
Here follows the full weather diary for August…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y
1st: Cloudy start to 1pm. Rain started at 5pm through to 10pm. A brief interlude before more light to moderate rain through the night 4.30am, then drizzle
2nd: Damp, miserable start – the rain became light to moderate in the early afternoon before drying up – very high dew points through the day.
3rd: Bright and breezy with variable cloud.
4th: Bright start with variable cloud and sunny spells.
5th: Good sunny spells all day – perfect summer’s day, not too much humidity – though an isolated shower passed over at 8pm.
6th: Sunny, clear start. Lots of sunny spells during the day.
7th: Bright start though very breezy. Cloud decreased through the day to leave a gorgeous late afternoon and evening.
8th: Sunny, clear start with lots of fair weather cumulus throughout the day. Cloudier spells mid afternoon.
9th: Sunny with fair weather cumulus up until noon then cloudy afternoon.
10th: Sunny with fair weather cumulus, variable throughout the day. Breezy.
11th: Cloudy start with very brief light rain, barely enough to damp ground. Some sunny intervals later and bright and warm.
12th: Sunny start with a few clouds. Turned gin clear at 11am and stayed clear all day. Feeling hot.
13th: Bright start but turning cloudier. Sunny intervals PM.
14th: Cloudy start breaking to some long sunny spells. Feeling very warm in the sun.
15th: Bright start soon turned sunny with a clearance at 1pm.
16th: Bright start though a lot of haze around. Sunnier later though still hazy.
17th: Sunny with patchy cloud to start, this clearing late morning to leave a clear if rather hazy afternoon.
18th: Sunny if a bit hazy to start, this tending to decrease to leave warm sunshine.
19th: Cloudy with rain threatening. Low cloud at Stansted. Brief rain in afternoon then cloudy.
20th: Dull and overcast at 9am. Burst of heavy rain at 10.15am clearing to sunny spells at noon 30. Rain between 7pm and 8pm and 3am and 4am.
21st: Bright start. Sunny intervals till 3pm then sunny spells.
22nd: Bright after earlier rain at 0719 then sunny spells.
23rd: Clear and sunny start with a few cirrus clouds through the day. Hot.
24th: Sunny, gin clear start. Patchy cirrus through the day. Hot.
25th: Lots of altocumulus and sunny spells but felt sultry due to high dew points.
26th: Cloudy start but gradually decreased to leave clear pm.
27th: Overcast but bright start. Brightness through the day but hazy. Some heavy storms further north.
28th: Overcast until early afternoon, 5 minute shower at 2pm then sunny intervals..
29th: Bright start then sunny spells and cirro cumulus gradually clearing to leave a sunny evening and clear night.
30th: Clear and sunny start.
31st: Bright start though cloud filling in by 3pm, clearing again at 8.30pm
3rd: Cloudy but with bright breaks and blue sky in distance.
13th: Cloudy though high base made it seem bright. Feeling chilly. A shower overnight.
od for my seasonal forecasts resulted in a shortlist of 26 summers that were similar to 2016.
In London, perhaps we can expect something very similar to what is listed on the excellent website: http://www.london-weather.eu/article.103.html
With so much rainfall overall sunshine was affected with only 451 hours recorded, just 80 per cent of what can be expected in an average summer.
Beyond the grasp of the models my long range outlook method is again hampered by a very dry August. However, the data I do have suggests an average month at 100 per cent probability.
My August outlook for temperature was good. I predicted a mean of 19C (outcome: 19.5C). It was drier than I thought: 30.3mm (outcome: 11.9mm). Sunshine was poor: 239 hours (outcome: 192 hours).
Wanstead Meteo 
You must be logged in to post a comment.