Category Archives: Monthly Review

December 2017: average temps, wet

December 2017 was a wet month. Just over 83mm of rain was recorded, 157 per cent of average, the wettest December since 2012 and the 38th wettest since 1797.

Screen Shot 2018-01-03 at 19.30.21
The snow depth on December 10th reached 5cm at its maximum

The monthly mean finished 5.6C, precisely average and the coolest December for five years.

Some 48 hours of sunshine were recorded, 120 per cent of average, slightly less than last year.

The most notable event was the on December 10th which produced the best snowfall in 5 years

Air frosts: 10. Ground frosts: 14. Snow falling: 2. Snow lying: 1.

January (on the 3rd) is looking like it may produce more snowfall events similar to December though, with models suggesting a build in heights to the north. A look at the output, including GFS and ECM, suggests the UK will be in a battleground between a cold airmass to the east and warm Atlantic air to the west.

It would seem to back up my winter forecast and also the December analogues with nothing warmer than average.

Average: 33%
Rather cold: 17%
Cold: 17%
Very cold: 0%
Severe: 33%

Screen Shot 2018-01-03 at 19.29.51

Full stats for December here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

Summary for December 2017
Temperature (°C):
Mean (1 minute)  5.8
Mean (min+max)   5.5
Mean Minimum     2.8
Mean Maximum     8.3
Minimum          -3.7 day 11
Maximum          14.2 day 30
Highest Minimum  9.8 day 21
Lowest Maximum   2.4 day 10
Air frosts       10
Rainfall (mm):
Total for month  83.7
Wettest day      14.6 day 10
High rain rate   12.1 day 31
Rain days        21
Dry days         10
Wind (mph):
Highest Gust     25.1 day 30
Average Speed    3.5
Wind Run         2570.0 miles
Gale days        0
Pressure (mb):
Maximum          1036.4 day 22
Minimum          970.3 day 10
Days with snow falling         3
Days with snow lying at 0900   1
Total hours of sunshine        48.3 (120%)
Screen Shot 2018-01-03 at 19.30.41
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November 2017: below average, dry

November 2017 was another dry month. Just over 33mm of rain was recorded, the driest November since 2011 and the 40th driest since 1797.Screen Shot 2017-12-02 at 17.23.28

The monthly mean finished 7.1C, 1C below average and only the fourth cooler than average month this year.

Some 71 hours of sunshine were recorded, 122 per cent of average – the sunniest November since 2007.

Air frosts: 6, Ground frosts: 17, snow falling: 1 (just a few flakes on the 30th, the first November snow in years.)

The start of December looks like it start mainly dry, an anticyclone over the Atlantic that has brought respite from last week’s cold weather will pull away into the continent to be replaced by low pressure. This depression will track across northern England gradually pulling cold, Polar air across the UK on Thursday.

The models go against what has followed dry Novembers in the past – patterns overwhelmingly suggest that December will be average to rather mild and on the dry side. Winter is looking average overall.

Here follows the full weather diary for November…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

Summary for November 2017
Temperature (°C):
Mean (1 minute)  7.4
Mean (min+max)   7.1
Mean Minimum     3.5
Mean Maximum     10.6
Minimum          -2.7 day 24
Maximum          15.5 day 22
Highest Minimum  12.3 day 21
Lowest Maximum   3.7 day 30
Air frosts       6
Rainfall (mm):
Total for month  33.3
Wettest day      8.5 day 10
High rain rate   12.1 day 22
Rain days        14
Dry days         16
Wind (mph):
Highest Gust     22.1 day 23
Average Speed    2.7
Wind Run         1952.8 miles
Gale days        0
Pressure (mb):
Maximum          1029.6 day 17
Minimum          985.2 day 22
Days with snow falling         1
Days with snow lying at 0900   0
Total hours of sunshine        71.2
Screen Shot 2017-12-02 at 17.24.28

October 2017: warm, very dry and dull

October 2017 was a very dry month. Just 12.6mm of rain were recorded, the driest October since 1995 and the 11th driest since 1797.

The monthly mean finished 13.1C, 1.3C above average and the seventh warmer than average month this year.

Some 81 hours of sunshine were recorded, 76 per cent of average – the 4th duller than average month in a row. Just three months have been sunnier than normal in 2017!

Air frosts: 0, Ground frosts: 2

The first half of November looks like it will be predominantly anticyclonic. Expect lots of calm weather with the usual frost and fog.

Here follows the full weather diary for October…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

Summary for October 2017
Temperature (°C):
Mean (1 minute)  13.2
Mean (min+max)   13.1
Mean Minimum     9.7
Mean Maximum     16.6
Minimum          0.9 day 29
Maximum          22.2 day 16
Highest Minimum  15.8 day 13
Lowest Maximum   11.3 day 30
Air frosts       0
Rainfall (mm):
Total for month  12.6
Wettest day      2.8 day 18
High rain rate   12.1 day 11
Rain days        8
Dry days         23
Wind (mph):
Highest Gust     23.5 day 02
Average Speed    3.4
Wind Run         2495.1 miles
Gale days        0
Pressure (mb):
Maximum          1034.0 day 27
Minimum          996.3 day 19
Days with snow falling         0
Days with snow lying at 0900   0
Total hours of sunshine        0.0

 

September 2017: average temps, rain. Dull

The first month of autumn continued in the same vein as the last month of summer .

The mean temperature finished 14.8C, 0.6C below average and very similar overall to September 2013.Screen Shot 2017-10-02 at 09.34.34

Some 53.5mm of rainfall was recorded, 103% of the 1981-2010 average. Some 114 hours of sunshine were recorded, 81 per cent of average, so on the dull side.

Overall the month was typical for early autumn – though possibly felt more autumnal because it was around 3C cooler than September 2016 and much wetter and duller than that month.

As usual at this time of year there is already much speculation about how cold the coming winter may, or may not, be. Winter has arrived over Siberia and early season snow cover is predicted to increase over the next week. However, the factor of early snow over Siberia being a sign of a cold winter to come in NW Europe is is only one piece of the jigsaw and I have seen it proved wrong a few times.

 

Summary for September 2017
Temperature (°C):
Mean (1 minute)  14.4
Mean (min+max)   14.8
Mean Minimum     10.7
Mean Maximum     18.9
Minimum          5.3 day 21
Maximum          22.7 day 04
Highest Minimum  16.7 day 04
Lowest Maximum   15.2 day 19
Air frosts       0

Rainfall (mm):
Total for month  53.5
Wettest day      16.1 day 27
High rain rate   16.1 day 13
Rain days        19
Dry days         11

Wind (mph):
Highest Gust     28.9 day 12
Average Speed    2.3
Wind Run         1670.8 miles
Gale days        0

Pressure (mb):
Maximum          1022.7 day 01
Minimum          989.1 day 12

Total hours of sunshine        114 (81%)

To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

Screen Shot 2017-10-02 at 09.01.01

 

July 2017: wettest since 1960

July 2017 was the wettest since 1960. Some 92.3mm of rain were recorded which is 212 per cent of the 1981-2010 average.finger cloud on 7th

Although the opening third of the month saw a continuation of the June heatwave temperatures gradually returned to normal values to leave the mean for the month at 19.2C, that’s 0.7C above average.

With all the rain sunshine totals were down. Some 167 hours were recorded, that’s 87% of average.

Though the rainfall total was impressive it is well short of the record of 164.2mm set in 1834, and is only 35th in the list going back to 1797.underlit

Summary for July 2017

Temperature (°C):
Mean (1 minute) 18.9
Mean (min+max) 19.2
Mean Minimum 14.7
Mean Maximum 23.7
Minimum 9.4 day 12
Maximum 30.5 day 07
Highest Minimum 18.3 day 06
Lowest Maximum 19.0 day 24
Air frosts 0

Rainfall (mm):
Total for month 92.3
Wettest day 30.8 day 11
High rain rate 56.4 day 29
Rain days 10
Dry days 21

Wind (mph):
Highest Gust 17.4 day 27
Average Speed 2.9
Wind Run 2163.5 miles
Gale days 0

Pressure (mb):
Maximum 1024.2 day 16
Minimum 996.8 day 31

Total hours of sunshine 167

In terms of the rest of the summer a look at the ECMWF control run out to 10 days suggests an unsettled start to August with the jetstream centred right over the top of the UK. Things may improve as the Azores high attempts to exert more influence – so perhaps more in the way of sunshine than of late. In terms of heatwaves it is impossible to tell at this range.mid level

Here follows the full weather diary for July. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Cloudy but with sunny spells developing, these growing longer in length by evening.
2nd: Sunny with just a few light cumulus.
3rd: Sunny start though with plenty of cloud around, this tending to thicken after lunch with odd spot of rain.
4th: Sunny and very warm early then tended to cloud over before sun returned in the late afternoon and evening. Some very unstable low to mid level cloud.
5th: Sunny with just a few cirro-cumulus. Feeling very warm with cloud bubbling up in the evening, however forecast storms failed to materialise.
6th: Sunny with cirrus and dotted cumulus. This tended to thicken late morning though sun stayed out and became hot and humid.
7th: Sunny with lots of high-level cirrus and cumulus most of the day.
8th: Bright but mostly cloudy start, the cloud tending to vary through the day. Sunny after 4pm. Warm overnight.
9th: Bright but mostly cloudy start, the cloud tending to break and vary through the day.
10th: A mostly sunny morning and lunchtime until 2pm when it clouded over.
11th: Cloudy with some bright breaks at first. Cloud thickening with rain by noon, this falling sporadically before getting going after 5pm and stopping by 3am.
12th: Cloudy, damp and close start.
13th: Sunny with variable cloud until noon when there were just bright spells.
14th: Cloudy but with a few breaks around mid morning. Turning cloudy again before sunny spells in the evening.
15th: Cloudy with some sporadic rain as warm front blew through and close. Very limited brightness.
16th: Cloudy with some bright spells. Feeling warm and humid.
17th:Sunny with just a few cirrus drifting around. Feeling hot, cloud thickened from the west in the late afternoon.
18th: Sunny with variable cirrus and cirro cumulus through the day. Feeling very warm. Storms began building with supercell to west of London and over Chilterns.
19th: Cloudy, dull start and very humid with heavy mist – the cloud tended to lift to give sunny spells in the afternoon.
20th: Drizzle after shower before obs time, then showers through to 1pm.
21st: Cloudy start but with sunny spells developing. Clouded over in evening with intermittent heavy rain at 11pm and through the early hours.
22nd: Cloudy but with sunny intervals developing around noon. Heavy showers developing with thunder at 2.30pm and 3.07pm.
23rd: Bright with variable cloud
24th: Cloudy with light, showery rain from northerly airstream that originated in the Med.
25th: Cloudy with light rain just after obs time.
26th: Cloudy with occasionally rain. Feeling warm and a late clearance. Breezy and chilly overnight.
27th: Cloudy but bright and sunny spells developing. A very heavy shower at 1pm.
28th: Bright start but clouding over.
29th: Sunny start with cloud increasing after noon to leave overcast before patchy rain moved in. This falling more heavily at 5pm before clearing to further showers. More rain overnight before a strong squall arrived at 2.45am and lasted an hour with further bursts of rain through the night –  two claps of thunder and lightening during squall.
30th: Sunny with variable cloud through the day. Very warm in the sunshine
31st: Sunny with variable cloud throughout the day.

June 2017: very warm

June 2017 has been a month of real contrasts. A thundery deluge on the 2nd was followed by conditions typically brought by the European monsoon.

rainfall
24hr rainfall totals

Warm weather followed in the second week before a full-blown heatwave arrived bringing the hottest June spell since 1976.

The mean temperature for the month finished at 18.9C, that’s 2.8C above average. It was the second warmest June in a local record going back to 1797. Though it was only 0.4C cooler than 1976 it was also much wetter than that very dry month.

Though it appeared a wet month, over two-thirds of the recorded rain fell in two episodes.

Sunshine for the month was 202.3hrs, 114% of average.

In terms of the rest of the summer you would be forgiven for thinking that we have already had more than our fair share of good weather. One way of looking at it is to count the number of days the mercury rises above 25C with 10 hrs of sunshine. Since May that has happened on 13 occasions – far higher than anything in the past four years.june heat

It will be interesting to see if July and August, normally the months where we get most of our summery weather are as good as June.

Summary for June 2017
Temperature (°C):
Mean (min+max)   18.9
Mean Minimum     13.8
Mean Maximum     23.9
Minimum          9.9 day 12
Maximum          31.5 day 21
Highest Minimum  21.1 day 21
Lowest Maximum   16.7 day 28
Air frosts       0
Rainfall (mm):
Total for month  71.1 (138.9%)
Wettest day      31.2 day 02
High rain rate   108.4 day 02
Rain days        8
Dry days         22
Wind (mph):
Highest Gust     27.3 day 05
Average Speed    3.5
Wind Run         2550.5 miles
Gale days        1
Pressure (mb):
Maximum          1025.0 day 16
Minimum          984.2 day 05
Total hours of sunshine        202.3
Here follows the full weather diary for June. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Sunny with scattered cumulus through the morning, the cloud thicker during the day.
2nd: Cloudy start though brightening up with long sunny spells. Cloud bubbled up and a heavy thunderstorm moved in at 3.15pm and lasted an hour. Sunny again by 6pm.
3rd: Bright start with decreasing cloud.
4th: Sunny start though cloud bubbling up late morning into early afternoon. Cloudy and breezy with a few spots of rain at dusk.
5th: Cloudy and very breezy start. Bright at times.
6th: Rain and very windy to start with gale force 9 in Channel. Rain lasted into the early afternoon before clearing to bright spells. Odd shower overnight but remained blustery with a few trees down. Flowering cherry fell at mum’s at 6.30pm.
7th: Sunny with long sunny spells. An area of rain after dark then overcast through the night.
8th: Cloudy and breezy, a shower at noon and some bright spells at 1pm.
9th: Sunny though breezy with lots of cloud. Spots of rain in the wind.
10th: Sunny and warm start with lots of sunshine. Very breezy.
11h: Sunny and feeling very humid but breezy. Alternating between very warm sunshine and cloud. Very brief few drops of rain at dusk then mostly cloudy night.
12th: Sunny periods throughout the day. Cloudier at times. Clear overnight with warm, sunny start.
13th: Sunny, clear start and feeling warm early.
14th: Sunny most of the day with odd cumulus. Very warm though turning a bit fresher overnight.
15th: Sunny morning though with more cloud than yesterday. A fresh breeze developing.
16th: Sunny with variable cloud. Warm.
17th: Sunny though lots of hazy cumulus.
18th: Sunny though much cloud amid the humidity. Felt airless with only limited breeze. Oppressive overnight.
19th: Sunny with cloud decreasing
20th: Bright start though cloud breaking at 11am to leave clear afternoon with just a couple of cumulus.
21st: Sunny and hot all day with patchy cirrus. Warmest June day since 1976 at Heathrow 33.9C. Warm overnight but more of a breeze. Sunny early.
22nd: Very brief rain shower at obs time then sunny intervals. Cooler but still humid. Very breezy overnight.
23rd: Long sunny spells with hazy cumulus. Although cooler still hot in the sunshine. Cooler overnight and breezy.
24th: Mostly cloudy though bright. A sharp shower in the evening.
25th: Bright though mostly cloudy. A couple of bursts of drizzle but then sunny spells late evening.
26th: Sunny with lots of cirrus, cirrocumlus and a fallstreak hole in the sky. Warm but low humidity.
27th Sunny start though sun becoming scarce. Patchy light rain at 10.30am and thunder then a heavy shower at 3.45pm. Rain in the evening that lasted into the early hours.
28th: Cloudy and very dull at times with very light drizzle. Humid.
29th: Cloudy though bright with some sunny intervals.
30th Sunny though with lots of cloud. Decreasing cloud in the afternoon and a pleasant evening.

May 2017: rather warm, average rain

The mean temperature for May 2017 of 14.7C was 1.6C above average; the warmest for six years and the 11th warmest in a local series going back to 1797.

sunset
Sunset on May 1st 2017

Despite the first ten days of the month continuing the dry spell that has plagued London for months the total recorded finished above average: 62.5mm rainfall (122% of the 1981-2010), the wettest May for three years.

Though the month finished warm with some cracking sunny days the first two-thirds of the month were relatively dull: 157.1hrs of sunshine were recorded which is 86% of average, the dullest for 13 years.

I published my summer forecast on June 1st. It’s looking average.

Here follows the full weather diary for May. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Cloudy all day with just a few bright intervals.
2nd: Sunny and clear morning, cloud bubbled up at noon. Cloud thickened with very light drizzle at 8pm.
3rd: Cloudy, dull with occasional very light drizzle.
4th: Cloudy and feeling chilly all day. Odd drizzle.
5th: Sunny start though cloud thickened quickly to leave an overcast though bright, breezy afternoon.
6th: Cloudy all day with a couple of bright spells.
7th: Cloudy and cool start, cloud decreasing after noon, eventually clearing to leave long sunny spells at 5pm.
8th: Cloudy and cool start – the cloud sticking all day and felt chilly.
9th: Cloudy and cool start, cloud decreased late afternoon but did not completely clear until 5am, saving area from frost. -2.8C in Benson!
10th: Sunny and mostly clear into the afternoon with patchy cirrus.
11th: Sunny and humid to start with much high-level cirrus. Breezy too. Showers overnight.
12th: Cloudy start, one or two light showers before a brief heavy one at 2pm. Sunny spells developed late afternoon.
13th: Cloudy start before cloud decreased to long sunny spells in afternoon. Cloudier overnight with showers between 7am and 8am.
14th: Sunny spells and breezy. Cloudier overnight with shower at 7am.
15th: Light rain and showers through the morning, clearing in the afternoon to sunny intervals.
16th: Bright start with cloud decreasing. Some very warm sunny spells – felt like summer for first time. Light rain in the evening though it didn’t start falling consistently until 2am with heaviest fall arriving at 4am.
17th: Bright start with plenty of sunny spells. Showery rain arrived at noon, turning more persistent at 4pm, clearing around 10pm.
18th: Bright start with lots of sunshine. Cloud began thickening at 1pm with bursts of light rain. Persistent rain arrived at 3.30pm and was still moderate to heavy at 10pm. Started petering out at midnight but then two further showers at 3am and 5am.
19th: Showery with longer spells of rain. This tended to clear to sunny spells. Thunder in the evening with a brief heavy shower at 6.23pm.
20th: Sunny, warm and breezy morning to 1pm.
21st: Sunny start with cumulus bubbling up. Sunny spells thereafter, growing longer as day wore on. Still 20C at 6pm during first Music in Wanstead Park. Overcast early but cloud started to break around 8am.
22nd: Sunny with decreasing cloud, clear by 1pm with just patchy cirrus.
23rd: Cloudy start with sunny spells mid morning, turning mostly cloudy again though.
24th: Bright start with variable cloud and sunny spells.
25th: Sunny with variable cloud at obs time, the cloud quickly clearing though a convection line could be seen in the west from Essex.
26th: Sunny and clear though breezy. Long sunny spells through the day. Feeling hot. Thunder and brief downpour between 8.30am and 9am.
27th: Sunny though only after front had cleared. Then alternating cloudy to sunny. More cloud late afternoon and not feeling as nice as forecast.
28th: Sunny start with variable cloud though the day. Rain in the evening before storm arrived at 1am, the rain turning heavier at 1.45am and lasting till just gone 3am.
29th: Cloudy start though soon turning brighter. Feeling humid with occasional very light rain.
30th: Cloudy but bright with the odd break. Feeling fresher
31st: Bright start with plenty of holes in the alto cumulus. Cloudier in the afternoon

April 2017: seventh driest since 1797

The driest April since 2011 was also the seventh driest in a local record going back to 1797. Just 4.3mm fell, nearly half of which was recorded on the final day.

An ‘absolute drought’ that began in March coincided with the month; a run of 26 days with a daily total of <0.2mm! Dry early springs seem to be becoming a pattern in this area with eight of the last 11 Aprils being notably dry.Screen Shot 2017-05-02 at 21.14.02

Though the mean temperature for April finished a fraction above average – 10.6C is 0.8C above average – it was a month of two halves. The month started warm with the temperature peaking at 25.4C on the 9th – Sunday of what was a warm weekend in London.

A polar low on 24th brought an unseasonably cold end to the month with cold days and night frost. Thunder was recorded on 26th and was accompanied by <5mm hail.

The total sunshine hours were just above average: 178.4 hours is 111% of the 1981-2010 average

The wettest day occurred on the 30th with 2mm.

Air frosts: 1, Ground frosts: 7Screen Shot 2017-05-02 at 21.34.19

Looking ahead, I think May will be another slightly milder than avrage month and continuing much drier than average.

Here follows the full weather diary for April. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Cloudy into the late morning before some cloud breaks appeared. Brief shower and some warm sunshine but cooler than lately. Cold in early evening and cloud breaks overnight.
2nd: Sunny with variable cumulus. Variable cloud through the day and chilly overnight
Sunny with bubbly cumulus.
Screen Shot 2017-05-02 at 21.35.103rd: Cloudy but with bright breaks and blue sky in distance.
4th: Sunny and pleasant early with bubbly cumulus – this lasted all day.
5th: Sunny with just a few cumulus.
6th: Sunny with just a few wispy cumulus floating around, slight haze.
7th: Sunny and gin clear.
8th: Sunny spells with a few cumulus. Much cooler.
9th: Sunny with some cirrus and cumulus.
10th: Sunny though with lots of cloud at times.
11th: Sunny start then clouded over then sunnier again with cloudier periods.
12th: Early sunny spells, the cloud thickening by 11.30pm to leave a mostly cloudy afternoon.
Screen Shot 2017-05-02 at 21.33.4513th: Cloudy though high base made it seem bright. Feeling chilly. A shower overnight.
14th: Bright start though with plenty of cloud around. Clear spells overnight.
15th: Sunny early though cloud increasing – a very light shower at 2.15pm.
16th: Cloudy, dull and cool. Some brightness at 2pm but then cloud thickened and breeze freshened to leave a cold afternoon.
17th: Sunny with variable cloud – clear overnight with ground frost.
18th: Sunny with broken cloud to start.
19th: Sunny start but clouded over, then sunny intervals.
20th: Cloud and mild all day.
21st: Very light drizzle to start then heavy cloud. Drizzle turned to light rain in Beckton but dry in Aldersbrook.
22nd: Bright start with broken cloud.
23rd: Bright early with patchy cirrus and altocumulus then completely cloudy and chilly. 24th: Some spots of rain around before moderate shower arrived at 5pm with 0.54mm falling.
25th: Sunny, clear start in polar air before cloud bubbled up around 10.30am. Then sunny spells – dew point stayed around or below freezing all day.
26th: Overcast and chilly with a cold breeze.
27th: Sunny, frosty start but cloud quickly bubbling up. Felt chilly.
28th: Mostly cloudy with the odd sunny spell
29th: Bright start but quickly turning cloudy
30th: Sunny early but gradually clouded over with rain at 1am. This stopped around 2am with small fall before 9am.

March 2017: very mild and dry

The mean temperature in March 2017 was the mildest in a local record going back to 1797.march 2017

A complete absence of air frost was mirrored in the mean which finished 10.5C, 2.8C above average and 0.3C higher than the previous record set in 1997.

The record temperature was probably down to notably mild air masses through the month as the total sunshine hours were about average, 107.2 hours is 99% of the 1981-2010 average.

The warmest day occured on the 30th with a high of 21.6°C in Wanstead, the warmest March day for 5 years.

Rainfall was very sparse, just 21.3mm were recorded, that’s 52% of average – a pattern that seems to be becoming more frequent; four of the last six Marches have been notably dry.

Sunshine was average. Over 107.2 hours were recorded, 99% of what we can expect to see during an average March.

The wettest day occurred on the 22nd with 5.8mm.

Air frosts: 0, Ground frosts: 1

Here follows the full weather diary for March. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Sunny start, the sky gradually filling in with light rain at 3pm and into the evening. A windy night.
2nd: Sunny and blustery start, clouding over with some light rain in afternoon / evening. Drier overnight before area of light rain moved in at 0730z.
3rd: Cloudy start with light rain late morning. Feeling cold.
4th: Cold and cloudy with brief showers in the afternoon and overnight.
5th: Light rain at 9am and during the morning, briefly clearing at 10.30am before heavy showers moved in through the afternoon. Some warm sunny intervals in between. Showers into the evening until 10pm.
6th: Sunny start with just a few clouds around.
7th: Bright start with decreasing cloud to leave sunny late morning. Variable cloud through the afternoon. Rain at 00.50 until 0144.
8th: Light rain between 9 and 11am then showery though mostly light. Mild.
9th Sunny start though tending to cloud in late afternoon. Feeling mild.
10th: Cloudy with a burst of light rain at 10.30am.
11th: Bright, hazy start and feeling mild. Very quiet weather – pleasant in the garden.
12th: Cloudy with drizzle early afternoon
13th: Sunny start with a few cirrus, cloud gradually increasing but staying mostly sunny.
14th: Cloudy, mild and boring start – boring and cloudy all day.
15th: Misty start, quickly clearing to leave a glorious sunny day and pleasant.
16th: Sunny and clear up to 12 noon, then haze and cumulus pushing in and gradually thickening up. Light drizzle between midnight and early hours as cold front pushed through.
17th: Sunny but hazy start, this haze thickening through the morning. Feeling noticeably colder with patchy drizzle – felt quite inclement in the evening.
18th: Bright and breezy start. Then mostly cloudy with odd patch of drizzle.
19th: Cloudy, breezy with odd drizzle patch. Sunny intervals late morning and into the afternoon before clouding over in evening. Moderate rain at 1am.
20th: Cloudy and breezy start. Heavy showers spreading in with brief stair rods at 3pm, then clear and much cooler overnight.
21st: Sunny with well scattered cumulus.
22nd: Cloudy, dull and feeling cold in the wind. Showery rain, this turning heavier into the evening and to 1am.
23rd: Cloudy and breezy, some sun mid afternoon which felt warm.
24th: Cloudy, chilly and windy morning.
25th: Sunny and clear but with bracing easterly wind – pleasant outside the wind in the sun.
26th: Sunny and much more pleasant than yesterday with lighter wind.
27th: Cloudy and cold to start, the cloud breaking to long sunny periods that led to a pleasant afternoon. Cloudier overnight with cloudy, chilly dawn.
28th: Sunny, gin clear start. Cloud began building after noon with sun becoming ever more scarce. Light rain late evening and overnight.
29th: Cloudy and mild
30th: Sunny, though hazy start with lots of alto cumulus
31st: Cloudy and dull with brief drizzle at 9.30am. Cloud slightly less heavy at noon.

February 2017: mild, dry and dull

A cold spell that saw a thin temporary covering of snow wasn’t enough to stop February 2017 from finishing mild. The mean temperature of 6.9C was 1.6C above the 1981-2010 average, the mildest February for three years. feb

The 20th saw the warmest February day in 13 years recorded, the 17.5C reached was marginally cooler than the 17.9C recorded on February 4th 2004.

Rainfall of 31.5mm was 80% of average – the driest February for 4 years. It was a dull month, some 44.6 hours of sunshine were recorded, just 61% of average, the dullest for 5 years.

The wettest day occurred on the 26th with 9.2mm.

Air frosts: 2

Ground frosts: 8

Snow falling: 4

So what has March got in store weatherwise? My long range forecasting method suggests the most likely scenario to be something rather cold waverage to slightly below rainfall

My February outlook for temperature, rainfall and sunshine was poor again.

Here follows the full weather diary for February. To view full stats follow this link:http://1drv.ms/1kiTuzv

1st: Cloudy with light rain late morning. Remaining cloudy into the afternoon and overnight with further light shower before obs time.

2nd: Cloudy and becoming breezy. Some intermittently light rain then cloudy. Broken cloud overnight.
3rd: Bright start with sunny spells developing – feeling warm in the sun. Cloud built up afternoon with rain at 4pm and 6pm. Rain at 8am.
4th: Light rain to start then bright spells late morning. Feeling chilly.
5th: Misty start and foggy out toward Epping. Some bright spells though mostly cold and cloudy. Broken cloud overnight with frozen dew at dawn.
6th: Sunny start with just a few wispy cirrus around. Clouding over after noon with rain in evening, heaviest at 8.45pm with bursts through the night. Min temp was at 9am yesterday.
7th: Cloudy, calm and damp start. Then clearing in afternoon for some mild sunny spells.
8th: Cloudy start and feeling really cold. Thick stratus cloud remained overnight – snow grains seen just before obs time.
9th: Cloudy and dull, snow grains seen. Mostly drizzle through the day.
10th: Dull and raw with occasional drizzle, sleet and snow grains falling all day and through the night – temporary dustings.
11th: Very light snow falling at 9am.
12th: Light snow at 9am with 1cm settling at Stanstead. Then cloudy and cold all day.
13th: Sunny start with sunny spells, clearance at noon.
14th: Cloudy start with complete clearance at noon.  Then variable cirro cumulus.
15th: Cloudy start and cloudy all day with some rain.
16th: Cloudy start breaking to sunny intervals afternoon.
17th: Cloudy start breaking to sunny spells at 10.30am, long sunny spells and mostly clear overnight.
18th: Cloudy start  with complete clearance after noon – cloudier spells overnight.
19th: Bright start but clouded over. Some drizzle at dusk.
20th: Cloudy start but sunny spells developing mid morning. Date record broken and warmest February day for 13 years.
21st: Cloudy and mild all day. Breeze picking up in the evening and into the night.
22nd: Cloudy and breezy start, the wind increasing through the day with occasional light drizzle. Some squally winds overnight.
23rd: Cloudy but with cold front clearance coming through at obs time – sunny spells thereafter but with squally winds – these increasing through the day with damage reported and trees down – a woman killed in Wolverhampton from flying debris.
24th: Sunny periods and feeling warm though shade felt cold. Early ground frost before cloud moved in – burst of rain in early hours.
25th: Cloudy and miserable with some rain in the late afternoon.
26th: Cloudy and miserable all day.
27th: Cloudy start but moderate to heavy prolonged showers moving in from 11pm. A miserable day with limited brightness.
28th: Sunny, gin clear start but with cirrus building frost west. Rain at 2.45pm, sporadic through the rest of the afternoon / evening.