The last time January was so wet Eddie ‘The Eagle’ Edwards was about to fly the flag for Great Britain in the ski jump at the Winter Olympics in Calgary, Canada, in 1988.
Some 130.6mm of rain (251% of average) fell in January, beating the previous record set in 1988 by just 2.8mm around midnight on Saturday 1st. Unlike 1988, last month followed a December that was 154% wetter than average. The wet spell, which started on December 13th, is only now making a real impact on the river Roding which is now running very high.
January was also warmer than average with a mean temperature of 6.4C (1.5C above the 30-year average) – ranking it 20th in the series since 1881 – and the warmest January since 2008. Though the month was very mild no single day was particularly mild. Highest maximum was 12.7C on the 7th.
The most notable day was probably Saturday 25th when what started as a bright, fine day quickly changed around 4pm as a strong squall with heavy rain blew through with associated thunder and lightning and 6C fall in temperature in an hour. Wanstead escaped the damage of elsewhere. Numerous trees blocked rail lines in Kent and gusts of over 60mph were widely reported.
There were two other incidents of thunder and lightning on 5th and 6th – very unusual in the middle of winter and an average normally observed in high summer.
Air frosts: 5 : coldest night of winter so far was observed on morning of 12th with -2.9C
For anyone who likes cold weather it has been a dreadful winter so far with no snow falling or lying in this part of Britain.
A very mobile synoptic regime has seen numerous vigorous depressions blowing in off the Atlantic bringing flooding misery for many as swollen rivers burst their banks.
The predominantly maritime air over us has meant that even air frosts have been few and far between.
Since December 1st, Wanstead has recorded just 7 air frosts – half the number of last year. The coldest night was just -2.9C , warmer than the -6.9C recorded by this point last January.
The current mean temperature this winter to January 14th is 6.6C with rainfall 133mm – statistics that are remarkably similar to the winter of 1985/86 (mean 6.8C rainfall 130mm). That December and January was followed by a very cold February – the 4th coldest in a series stretching back to 1881.
However, before any coldies reading this get excited it should be noted that this season is also remarkably similar to winter 1989/90 (mean 6.8C, rainfall 128mm), which was followed by more stormy weather, including the Burns’ Day Storm, and the warmest February on record in this region.
Further scrutiny of stats for the Wanstead area reveal other years were similar. Using my method for finding patterns stretching back over 50 years to forecast this winter I picked out years that were +/- 10% of the mean. From these I then weeded out the seasons where the rain was +/- 10% of the 2013/14 rainfall total. This gave a list of five other winters with similar temperature and rainfall. Leaving aside 1985/86 and 1989/90 the other winters weren’t anything special with ‘snow lying’ days below the median for this area of six.
As I write this there are tentative signs on the weather models that a Scandinavian high may begin to form next week, introducing colder air from the east – exactly what we need to precipitate snow. However, they are just tentative signs and the cold air may never reach this far west anyway. Bear in mind also just how strong the influence from the Atlantic has been so far this winter. The Met Office have said the storms have been the worst in 20 years – which takes us back to the year in the above table of 1993/94. The only snow lying in that DJF season occurred in a short cold snap around February 15th – though, admittedly, an impressive fall of snow happened the previous November.
So, in summary, the probability at this point of at least one fall of snow before the end of February could be put at 75%. No snow: 25%. Abundant snow: 25%.
While compiling the figures I found that for my winter forecast to be correct would need a second half to winter exactly the same as 1985/86.
Some comparisons have been made between this winter and the balmy winter of 1988/89 – though that winter, the second warmest in the 1960-2014 series up to this halfway point, was a full degree warmer than this season and much drier, with only 30.9mm falling in over 6 weeks.
The culprit of the dry weather of that season 24 years ago was the influence of a very strong European high pressure which ‘blocked’ weather fronts from reaching this part of the UK, sending a conveyor belt of depressions skirting over Scotland bringing incessant rain instead of snow to Cairngorm resorts.
The nature of the weather this time round has been very different. Though December started with a strong anticyclone over Europe fronts associated with very deep depressions off the Atlantic have made inroads deep into the continent.
A classic Genoa low brought over 2 metres of snow above about 1,000m on Christmas day to resorts on the south side of the Alps. The nature of the airflow subsequent to that, however has brought some very high temperatures for the year.
Scottish and continental European winter sports enthusiasts will remember the season of 1988/89 well for all the wrong reasons, with little snow falling before March. I can vividly remember some amazingly cheap skiing holidays advertised on Teletext in January 1990. One deal was a week to Andorra for £19, including flights, transfers and half board in a 3-star hotel. A few of the lads in my A-level economics class took full advantage – only to return with tales about snowless mountains, sprained knees and wrecked skis, though it’s not clear how much of an influence the duty-free booze had.
Although many resorts were already investing in artificial snowmaking it was this season that quickened the pace of investment in snow cannons.
There was a time when not too far from the hustle and bustle of Selfridges, Harvey Nicks and Fortnum & Mason stood a fine scientific instrument supplier.
Negretti & Zambra, at No. 122 Regent Street and later at No. 15 New Bond Street, specialised in barometers and thermometers – everything you could need to set up a weather station. The brand among weather anoraks is the byword for quality. The company, along with Short & Mason, probably made the majority of barometers that adorn many hallway walls across Britain. Next time you visit old aunt Flo or uncle Albert chances are the barometer hung on the wall is made by one of these companies.
Enrico Negretti and Joseph Zambra started their company in 1850, which was run by them and their descendents until well after the Second World War. They had shops firstly in Regent Street and later at Holborn Viaduct. The company was highly successful, winning a medal at the Great Exhibition in 1851, counting among their customers the Astronomer Royal, Prince Albert, the Royal Observatory and Admiral Robert Fitzroy.
Initially they specialised in barometers and thermometers, particularly those needed for taking deep sea and atmospheric measurements, which until they arrived were very unreliable. Later they increased their range to include telescopes, gun sights, theodolites and optical instruments. During the Second World War Negretti expanded substantially to meet the demand for instruments for war planes in particular. Their instruments were also produced under licence to supply the USAAF.
Go to No.122 Regent Street today and you’ll find a branch of the Body Shop. The shop at No.15 New Bond Street, which closed in 1975, 11 years after the company moved production to a factory in Aylesbury, is now a branch of watchmaker Patek Philippe. Outside you will find seated bronze statues of Allied wartime leaders Sir Winston Churchill and Franklin D. Roosevelt sharing a joke. The statue by Lawrence Holofcener was unveiled in 1995 by the Bond Street Association to mark 50 years of peace. I’m not sure how intentional this was but how fitting that they are outside Negretti’s old shop, the instruments of which played a big part in helping the Allies to prevail over the Axis.
Back in the day N&Z was highly regarded in the local community and people would phone to access data that the company compiled from its rooftop weather station. In the late 1950s it was the job of Geoffrey John Gill, an office junior who went on to become an apprentice draftsman, to collect these stats.
“I was getting tea, coffee and buns from a Greek cafe in Soho’s Wardor Street for the office staff, collecting the mail and using the franking machine and last but not least the holy of holy’ climbing to the shop roof top and collecting the charts from the sunshine glass ball recorder, the rain gauge, barograph and the hygrometer box. You see it was common in those days for people to phone N&Z to enquire what these readings had been for the past day or so, a typical quality N&Z service.” A full account of his time with the company can be found here.
Short & Mason were established five years prior to Negretti in 1845 by Thomas Short and James Mason. The business was located at 40 Hatton Garden, London, and produced precision measuring instruments including barometers, anemometers, and compasses. They became leaders in the field of barograph design and supplied scientific instruments for the Scott and Shackleton polar expeditions in the early 20th century and for Everest climbers.
In 1910 the company relocated to Macdonald Road, Walthamstow. It was here that 11 years later the company pioneered the theory that a storm forecast could be made from just observing the air pressure and whether it was rising or falling. The company went on to develop aeronautical, medical, meteorological and surveying instruments and were listed exhibitors at the British Industries Fair in 1922 and 1947.
In 1958 the business moved to Wood Street, Walthamstow, where it continued to trade until a merger in 1969 with Taylor Instrument Companies, of Leighton Buzzard, Beds. An account of somebody with experience of working for Short and Mason can be found here.
Many examples of Negretti & Zambra and Short & Mason instruments can be found on eBay and antique shops across the world, the finer examples often turn up at auction houses such as Bonhams where they go for thousands of pounds.
Though, like many industries, weather observing has become mostly automated there are are still probably hundreds of observers who still take the manual measurements every morning ‘because they can’. Though this observer relies on an automatic weather station for daily readings – there is nothing like the daily ritual of emptying the Snowdon raingauge or shaking down the maximum thermometer at 0900 GMT every day. One observer who still supplied the Met Office with monthly rainfall readings while in his 80s said that it was the one thing that got him out of bed every morning.
Perhaps it’s a little similar to the ever growing popularity of classic cars. A sense of being able to hold a piece of British engineering history that was so well designed that it still works today.
November was colder than average with a mean temperature of 6.7C (1.2C below the 30-year average) – ranking it 69th in the series since 1881. Rainfall of 56.5mm was 99% of average – ranking it 61st in the series.
The month was just 0.04C cooler than last November – with 93% of the rain that fell in November 2012.
I’m now starting to publish my monthly stats on this blog. This month was warmer than average with a mean temperature of 13C (1.2C above the 30-year average) – making it the 10th warmest in the series since 1881. Rainfall of 83mm was 127% of average.
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