This month 180 years ago a huge fire consumed a large area of Wanstead Flats. Approximately one tenth of the total 335 acres of grassland was set ablaze – the cause believed to be a discarded tobacco pipe.
Looking east over Wanstead Flats from Centre Road. Long Wellesley sold off a lot of the peat on the Flats to local nurseries
At first the fire was ignored – locals thought the blaze would burn itself out or that rain would damp it down. However, it continued to grow. The Bucks Herald, on August 15th 1835, reported that in a period of three weeks the Flats had become “one mass of fire” and that in many places the blaze had descended to a depth of two feet from the surface of the peaty surroundings.
Locals, in an age where the Fire Brigade was still 30 years away from being formed, sought to put out the flames themselves. A number of horse-drawn watering carts belonging to the Essex Turnpike Trust were commandeered to carry water from a pond to extinguish the flames. For the best part of nine days residents tried in vain to defeat the fire.
Mr Speering, the deputy of the Lord of the Manor, the hapless Mr Long Wellesley, was summoned to convey the desperate circumstances to the government of the day – to try and appeal for help to defeat the blaze. Some 70 men, miners and “sappers” from Woolwich, duly arrived to dig a trench 5ft wide and six to eight inches deep around the perimeter of the blaze, but it was not before much damage was done to the land that locals depended to feed their cattle and horses.
Looking at the statistics of that summer the temperature and rainfall looks fairly average – ruling out a dry spell being the catalyst of the inferno. It was suggested at the time that the fire was exacerbated by neglect of the land – the blame therefore lying ultimately at the door of Long Wellesley.
The slow reaction time by the government of the day prompted the following poem to be published in the Leeds Times:
WANSTEAD FLATS ON FIRE
Go, ring the alarm bell, call the Crier.
And warn the neighbours the Flats are on fire.
Not Wanstead Flats; no, duller far,
And dryer, the Flats I speak of, are,
Made, like old timber that hath the rot,
Old rages, old shavings, and what not,
To crackle and blaze with vast elation
I a brief but furious conflagaration;
But enough – what need of further words? –
The Flats are on fire in the House of Lords!!
There’s Winchelsea “flaring up”, like a rocket,
With lush-light Clumber, low in his socket;
There’s Strangford blazing like red-hot steel, And Lyndhurst ignited from head to heel;
Cumberland makes that sort of show,
He’ll make one day in the – – -,
Whiz! goes Law, tied fast to the Duke,
Like a squib to a pedagogue’s peruque;
Wicklow and Buckingham, blessed pair!
Flash, like the Lesser and Greater Bear; –
In short, their Lordship’s, like Dido’s pyre,
Are all just now one mass of fire!
‘Tis a sad – a terrible case no doubt;
What shall we do? Shall we put them out?
No, let them blaze away, while we
Look on with undissembled glee,
And laugh to think, like rational folk,
How soon their fire will end in smoke!
Cold front clearance over Wanstead Flats on February 28th. The day saw three potent cold fronts with steep temperature falls. <5mm hail in the last and thunder heard in Woodford Green
Though officially the House of Commons held the reins of legislature the House of Lords still held great influence, as Lord Wellington noted that year: “The House of Lords still constitutionally possesses great power over the legislation of the country”.
The current custodians of our local parklands, City of London Corporation, would do well to take note from this story. While they are taking action in improving the care of the land it is obvious from the comments I hear while walking around the Flats and Wanstead Park that much more needs to be done.
The title of this monthly review is probably very misleading as July was a month that blew hot and cold.
The Casella ‘check’ thermometer registered 35.8C on July 1st – 0.3C lower than the AWS reading, within the contraints
The start of the month began with the July all-time record being set: 36.1C. The month ended with a couple of very chilly nights: 6.9C in the early hours of 31st with a grass minimum of 4.5C. I haven’t yet been able to go through my records but, according to the Met Office, temperatures in southern England on the same night that fell to 1C represent an all-time low July record.
There were ten occasions when the maximum exceeded 25C. Mean temperature for the month was 18.6C, 0.1C above the 1981-2010 mean and the coolest July since 2012. Rainfall of 70.4mm was 162% of average though it is worth noting that three quarters of this was recorded on two days.
There were 174 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is 91% of what we can expect to see during an average July. The wettest day occurred on the 24th with 32.4mm of rain. There were two days of thunder recorded.
So what has August got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (August 1st) suggest very little change in the overall pattern of things. The jet stream is still well south across the Atlantic and is likely to remain so for the forseeable future. However, because we are on the eastern side of the troughed flow across the eastern Atlantic this allows the potential for some very warm or even hot conditions to be drawn up across the UK in the coming five days and possibly beyond. However, the longer projections turns the flow more west to east across the south of the UK again returning cooler air to the SE as well in week two.
This means a continuation of changeable conditions as low pressure remains anchored in the north-west or north of the UK. Thunder could be likely.
In contrast to the models my long range method suggests that we are in for a rather cool August, about 1C below average, at 41% probability. The next highest probability is for something average at 27% probability. So an average to rather cool August works out at 68% probability.
Rainfall is uncertain. There is the same probability for dry (50% average) and very wet (175% average): 23% probability. However, the next highest probability is for average at 18%.
This grainy image shows distant lightning illuminating a cloud. The storm was centred over St Albans on July 16th
My data for sunshine only stretches back to 1878. There is a 73% chance of a duller than average August.
My July outlook was very poor, I predicted a rather warm to warm month – but it was nothing like last year’s or the 2013 classic. My rainfall and sunshine predictions were also hopelessly out. However, it was the first month since January that my temperature forecast has been wide of the mark. It’s just weather – in that it frequently doesn’t do what you think it’s going to do.
Here follows the full weather diary for July…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y
1st: Sunny until after midday when cloud bubbled up and took edge of temperature. Hottest July day ever was set at 5pm. Breeze made it feel bearable.
2nd: Sunny start though cloud quickly built with rain at midday. Just 0.3mm fell which evaporated on impact with the hot ground.
3rd: Sunny, clear day though humidity began to build from mid afternoon with the appearance of cloud. Still sunny spells till late into the evening. Big thunderstorm from around midnight for an hour.
4th: Sunny and muggy start. Long sunny spells, hardly a cloud in the sky until later. Sunny dawn but rain arrived at 9am.
5th: Light rain to start. This cleared late morning to sunny spells. Feeling muggy.
6th: Sunny start though lots of fair weather cumulus bubbled up.
7th: Cloudy start with light patchy rain around 11.30am, clearing to sunny spells. Some rain after 9am.
8th Cloudy and blustery with rain in the air. A few showers around.
9th: Sunny with just a few clouds, low humidity. Sky completely cleared after 3pm for a gorgeous evening.
10th: Sunny start. Some cloud bubbling up as jetstream neared – lots of cirrus and then cirrocumulus forming. Turned sunnier late afternoon. Also dawned clear and sunny.
11th: Long sunny spells with just a few cirrus and cumulus at times. Feeling warm and humid. Some light rain around midnight but not amounting to much.
12th: Cloudy and comparatively cool compared with recently. Light rain at 5pm with drizzle in wind through evening. More rain at 7.30am that fell intermittently up to obs time.
13th: Light rain to start with bursts through morning to 10.45am. Further bursts of light rain into early afternoon then overcast and muggy all night. More drizzle early am.
14th: Drizzly start – this continued into late morning. Then overcast and muggy. More drizzly burst overnight into the early hours – drizzle was persistent from 8.30am to 9am.
15th: Sunny intervals after light drizzle.
16th: Bright and sunny spells tending to turn more cloudy after midday. Big electrical storm around midnight with 67 flashes per minute seen to the north-west.
17th: Light drizzle to start turned to bright spells and a pleasant summer’s day.
18th: Sunny start with cloud bubbling up late afternoon. Light rain shower at 8.30 at end of Music in Wanstead Park and again in early hours at 6am.
19th: Sunny morning tended to cloud in at midday before cold front cleared to leave sunny evening. Mackerel sky at dusk with light rain at 8.15am.
20th: Showery rain to start.
21st: Sunny start but clouds bubbled up through the day for long sunny spells. Warm with a breeze.
22nd: Sunny start, cloud bubbling up during the day with spots of rain at 5pm – heavy shower in Wanstead.
23rd: Cloudy with occasional bright spells, feeling humid.
24th: Drizzly start. rain started falling at 11am. Outbreaks of prolonged rain through the day, heaviest between 5pm and 6pm. More rain after 8pm but then a drier interlude before more rain at midnight as occluded front came back. Last tip of the gauge just before 4am.
25th: Sunny and breezy though much cooler. A pleasant evening at John’s party though. Cloudy spells overnight before rain moved in at 9am.
26th: Rain to start with heavy outbreaks up to 1pm. Further outbreaks of rain through the day and into the evening.
27th: Drizzly bursts of rain to 11am. Then dry and bright.
28th: Bright and breezy to start. A light shower in evening then cool and clear – sunny start.
29th: Bright start but cloud filling in. Burst of rain at 8.30pm then variable cloud overnight.
30th: Bright but a burst of rain just after 10am. Then mostly cloudy with a few bright breaks.
31st: Sunny start but cloud filled in.
Legend has it that the weather on St Swithin’s will be the same for the next 40 days.
St Swithin’s day, if thou dost rain,
For forty days it will remain;
St Swithin’s day, if thou be fair,
For forty days ’twill rain na mair.
St Swithin’s Day is probably among the most well known of weather folklore – but, taken at face value, it is probably the most unreliable.
Grasslands around Wanstead Park have gradually turned brown because of the lack of rainfall since March
Since 1848 Wanstead and the surrounding region has enjoyed 93 dry St Swithin’s Days (56%). From these the longest dry spell that followed was just 18 days, in 2000. On average, if St Swithin’s is dry, the weather stays fair for 3 days, with rain arriving on the 18th. Many dry St Swithin’s Days (17%) are followed by rain the next day – these results skew the median for rain after a dry St Swithin’s to just 2 days!
Another interesting observation is that the 40-day period that followed a dry St Swithin’s is on average 13% WETTER than if it rained on July 15th.
So what does this mean for the rest of July and the summer? Looking back at other years that have seen a mostly dry and warm pattern in the run up to St Swithin’s Day we should see a continuation of frequently dry, warm and sunny conditions, interspersed with rainy days and, perhaps, thundery breakdowns. A typical British summer!
Putting superstition and singularities aside current weather models back this up.
St Swithin’s reputation as a weather saint is said to have arisen from the translation of his body from a lowly grave to its golden shrine within Winchester cathedral, having been delayed by incessant rain for 40 days
St Swithin was born around 800AD and died on July 2, 862, at Winchester, Hampshire. According to historians he was fond of building churches in places where there were none. St Swithin, who was bishop of Winchester, was buried in the churchyard of the Old Minster at Winchester, where passers by might tread on his grave and where the rain from the eaves might fall on it.
His reputation as a weather saint is said to have arisen from the translation of his body from this lowly grave to its golden shrine within the cathedral, having been delayed by incessant rain for 40 days.
The basis of the St Swithin’s saying follows the fact that by July 15th summer weather patterns are already well established and tend to persist through the coming weeks.
In meterological terms the position of the frontal zone around the end of June to early July, indicated by the position of the jet stream, determines the general weather patterns (hot, cold, dry, wet) for the rest of the summer. Like a little stream in its bed, the frontal zone tends to ‘dig in’ shortly after the summer solstice.
As the path of our weather systems is controlled by the jet stream, a more southerly location of the frontal zone – as happened last year – is likely to bring unsettled, wet and cool weather. On the other hand, a frontal zone shifted further to the north – as is happening this year – will help the Azores high to build over western Europe, thus bringing dry and pleasant weather to the UK.
Other western European countries also have similar St Swithin’s day sayings – that follow the principle rule. In France they say ‘Quand il pleut a la Saint Gervais Il pleut quarante jours apres’ – If it rains on St. Gervais’ day (July 19th), it will rain for fourty days afterward.
In Germany the Siebenschlaefer or seven sleepers day (July 7th, after the Gregorian calendar) refers to the weather patterns of the following seven weeks.
The hottest July day on record was recorded at Heathrow airport on Wednesday 1st. The 36.7C recorded between 1500 and 1530 exceeded the previous record of 36.5C set at the Royal Horticultural Garden at Wisley, Surrey, in 2006.
The meteo is sited on the Aldersbrook Estate and uploads data to the web every 10 minutes, 24 hours a day
I recorded 36.1C in Wanstead, a reading that exceeded the previous July record of 35.9C set in 1868 – indeed it was the fourth highest temperature this area has seen since local records began in 1848.
Already, however, questions have arisen over the validity of the Heathrow value mainly because the official measurement far exceeded that of Northolt, an airfield and the closest official station, which recorded 35.7C, a full degree cooler.
I’ve always been a bit sceptical on the validity of airport readings – there’s a lot more concrete at Heathrow than Northolt and obviously far more jet engines. The previous July record at Wisley is surely far more representative of standard conditions? I fear that with a new runway Heathrow will only get hotter and, perhaps, a review of the official MetO station should be taken.
I’m often asked why my own station is not used for official readings. The simple answer is that, being in a suburban garden, it is too sheltered to qualify for the open exposure that the Met Office demands.
But, apart from the exposure, everything is as representative as possible to conditions set by the Met Office. When readings differ it is simply because the character of the area is warmer or colder than official stations, the closest of which is St James’s Park.
Maxima for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: ShoeburynessMinima for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness
To try to quantify this I’ve had a look at all the official stations around Greater London throughout June. The results show that readings from Wanstead are remarkably similar to other stations.
I first had a look at maxima which revealed that Wanstead is 0.3C warmer than Heathrow and 0.6C warmer than St James’s Park.
Mean for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: ShoeburynessRainfall for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness
Minima, on the other hand, revealed that Wanstead was 0.5C cooler than Heathrow and 0.9C cooler than St James’s Park – a stark illustration of how much warmer inner London is than the suburbs.
This obviously had a bearing on the mean temperatures of the region, Wanstead being 1.1C cooler than Heathrow and 1.2C cooler than St James’s Park.
In terms of rainfall Wanstead was wettest, but only by 4mm.
So, all in all, the weather station at Wanstead is a pretty good measure of our local climate, as close as possible to what official conditions for measurement of climate demand.
I am currently in the process of trying to find a site local to the area that will fulfil Met Office conditions but it is a long, drawn-out process that will take time to organise.
Maxima for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: ShoeburynessMinima for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: ShoeburynessMean for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness
If you like thunderstorms Wanstead seems to be leading something of a charmed life these past couple of years.
The storm at 23:43
Two years ago I wrote a blog asking what had happened to decent summer thunderstorms that were so common during my youth in the 1980s. Last night was the fourth time Wanstead has experienced a really good light show, complete with multiple lightning strikes and Hammer Horror-esque thunderclaps. The first storm passed over at 23:43, delivering 3.7mm rain at a rate of 20mm/hr. Another followed shortly after at 23:58, a pressure trace revealed a 1mb fall as the storm passed through. Nothing special as I have seen a 6mb drop in similar circumstances. By this time the sky was alive with lightning – yet again I failed to capture any lightning bolt but did manage to photograph my garden at the moment night became day – the world’s most powerful flashgun!
The radar picture of the storm at 23:58What would you give for a flashgun this powerful? The storm at its peak at 00:22
At 00:19pm occurred the brightest flash of lightning almost instantly followed by a very loud crack of thunder, the kind you hear on those Hammer Horror films with Peter Cushing. Looking at the rainfall of weather stations around the south-east it appears that Wanstead was in the thick of the action, clocking up 20.1mm of rain and second only to Bedford. The amount represents 47% of what normally falls in an average July. As always in these situations some places get a deluge while others remain almost dry.
There was 112,833 lightning strikes across UK & Ireland between 9pm and 9am on July 4th Image courtesy of Blitzortung
Looking further afield around London an observer in Blackheath reported an hour to 90 minutes of ‘roaringly good storminess’ that brought a house party to an abrupt end. He counted 15 flashes of lightning a minute, lots of CC but a few CGs too, including one close as the storm kicked off.
Elsewhere an observer in Highams Park reported 30 flashes per minute. In Dorset another observer 50mm of rain, most of which fell in an hour. The storm that tracked over the Salisbury region had what seemed like 3x the lightning of the storms in the SE corner.
Forecasting of the event was handled better by some agencies than others. For location accuracy the MeteoGroup discussion had an edge over the Met Office.
The Trappes (Paris) ‘loaded gun’ ascent for July 3 can be found here – warm / dry layers between 900 and 800 hPa and ~2000 J/kg of CAPE, with high CAPE values expanding aerially as the trough neared. Approach of the trough caused cooling aloft – not sufficient for the capping inversion to break around Paris itself but farther west and north.
Lightning streamers were visible moments before each thunderbolt. These come out of the ground to meet the main bolt – a sure sign that Wanstead was right underneath a cellA pressure trace at 11am on July 4th shows the peaks and troughs during the stormThis table shows the most notable thunderstorms that have passed over Wanstead during the past two years
June finished hot in complete contrast to the opening few days which were a continuation of a disappointing May.
There were six occasions when the maximum exceeded 25C – the highest being 30.8C on 30th, the warmest June day for four years.
Mean temperature for the month was 16.9C, 0.8C above the 1981-2010 mean. Rainfall of 17.5mm was 34% of average – the last three Junes have been notably dry.
There were 189.5 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is 106% of what we can expect to see during an average June. The wettest day occurred on the 20th with 11.1mm. There were two days of thunder recorded.
So what has July got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (July 1st) suggest a battleground between Atlantic cooler air and hot continental air, a common feature at this time of year. The persistent heat on the continent looks like it will waft back and forth across the south-east – creating the risk of thundery downpours as it meets resistance from successive cold fronts.
Just 17.5mm of rain fell in June – 34% of average
The model output suggests the Atlantic air will eventually win through, allowing more changeable conditions in a week’s time. There is also a signal that high pressure will re-establish with a return to fine and very warm weather. As things stand the models remain finely balanced.
In contrast to the models my long range method suggests overwhelmingly that we are in for a warm July, up to 1.7C above average, at 60% probability
The next highest chance is for rather warm at 40% probability. If you add the probabilities together the chance of a rather warm to warm July can be put at 100% – perhaps a repeat of last year’s and 2013’s classic July is about to unfold?
Rainfall is looking below average, at 60% probability. There’s obviously a risk here that a couple of direct hits from thunderstorms would see the monthly total exceeded. I don’t have enough data to estimate sunshine but I would guess average to slightly above.
My June outlook was only good in that it ruled out any chance of a very warm month – the final mean was rather higher than I thought. I was also out with the very low rainfall – the signal was for something average. Sunshine was broadly average as I’d estimated
The Heronry Pond in Wanstead Park is suffering from low water levels again
1st Sunny, bright start quickly turned cloudy with intermittent drizzle through the day. Turned windy at 6pm and was really blowing around midnight.
2nd Drizzle in the wind at obs time and very windy, wind only decreasing by evening. A dreadful day though warm.
3rd Sunny start though cloud gradually increased. Feeling humid and summery at last.
4th Sunny start with cloud dotted with alto cumulus and cirrus. Rain between 5am and 6am – though storms passed to our west and east.
5th Bright start after earlier rain – the thunderstorms seemed to pass to our west and east. Very humid and felt oppresive in the morning.
6th Sunny start with cloud bubbling up. Much cooler and fresher feel. Lots of long sunny spells.
7th Sunny, gin clear start. Just a few fair weather cumulus all day. Gorgeous.
8th Bright start though alto cumulus shaded early sun. Variable cumulus after that – feeling chilly.
9th Cloudy and brisk wind from NE. Feeling chilly.
10th Bright start with sunny intervals throughout the day.
11th Sunny start with few cirrus, sky then completely cleared.
12th Sunny start though cloud bubbled up through the day – felt very close at sports day. Distant thunder heard at 8pm with light rain – much less than was threatened.
13th Cloudy start, mostly calm, still and dull – a real nothing day though some late brightness after 2pm pushed up the temperature briefly. Mild overnight with some light drizzle before obs time.
14th Drizzle in the wind up until 11pm and falling temp. Then a brief sunny interlude before it was cloudy again.
15th Cloudy start then briefly clearing before, at 1pm, more cloud appeared. Clear overnight allowing temp to fall until 4.10am but clouding over by morning – bright warm sunshine at 9am.
16th Sunny start but very cloudy at times. This continued all day – though the night was cloudier hence warmer.
17th Sunny start but with lots of cloud around.
18th Lots of long suuny spells but cooler than yesterday.
19th Cloudy up until 11.30pm and cooler. Broke to sunny spells and much warmer at 2pm.
20th Bright start though warm from started pushing through just before 1pm. Some sunny breaks but rain pushed in. Was in Cheltenham but Woodford Wells reported thunder: Between 1650and 1730 12mm fell followed by a decreasing amount of 2.4mm up to 1814 all BST Two thunder claps at 1715 and 1728.
21st In Cheltenham it was a mostly cloudy day though with more sunny intervals after midday. Rain spread in just before midnight with more in the early hours.
22nd Cloudy start though with brief sunny break at 10am. Some drizzle 11.15am then drier with sunny intervals.
23rd Bright start. Cloud broke to give warm sunny spells .
24th Sunny periods after a rather cloudy start. Felt very warm in the sun during walk around London with Neil and family.
25th Sunny start though hazy cloud developed from 10.30am, rather obscuring the sun at times, though it was bright all day. 26th Warm till late into the evening – still 18C at 11pm.
26th Bright start though cloudy, broke to sunny spells and felt warmer than forecast.
27th Sunny start though with cloudier spells all through the day. A very warm evening.
28th Sunny start quickly became cloudy with rain turning up at noon during early lunch. This later cleared to sunny spells and a pleasant afternoon.
29th Sunny start though with high cloud obscuring the sun at times.
30th Sunny, gin clear all day. only ‘cloud’ was distant grass fire.
The 30th was wall-to-wall sunshine until late in the evening when alto-cumulus and cumulus were observed
The media are always keen to say ‘a heatwave is on the way’ when it is more likely to just be a short spell of fine weather with temperatures a few degrees above average.
The Daily Express, which usually goes over-the-top when there is any sign of heat on the horizon, has been relatively quiet of late
Forecasts of 30C and above see editors up and down the land reaching for their stock pics of office workers and kids enjoying ice creams in parks.
‘Hotter than the Costas’ and other hackeneyed headlines are wheeled out as photos of scantily-clad women frolicking in the sea at Brighton illustrate this amazing fact – the more ubiquitous shirtless lorry drivers on the capital’s roads never seem to make the final editions.
So how do you quantify a heatwave? Even in an average year the UK normally sees at least one spell of very warm weather that can often feel much warmer than it actually is.
Looking at data for the London area stretching back to the early 1800s there has been plenty of hot spells, including the summer of 1808 where birds reportedly ‘dropped out of the sky’ from heat exhaustion.
The term ‘heatwave’ does not appear in any publication in the British Newspaper Archive until 1867. The Manchester Courier and Lancashire General Advertiser on May 11th 1867 features a letter from Mr R.H. Allnatt. Writing from the British Hotel, Jersey, he states that “…the atmosphere became most oppressive. A heat-wave seems to have passed over the island, and from noon till sunset the thermometer stood in shade at 90 deg.”
The World Meteorological Organization’s description of a heatwave is “when the daily maximum temperature on more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5°C, the normal period being 1961-1990″. Though it has no official definition the UK Met Office, working with the Department of Health, provides a ‘Heat-Health Watch System’ for England which is triggered when a threshold temperature in the South East is 31°C by day and 16°C overnight for at least two consecutive days.
A mean daily temperature of 23.5°C or higher has been achieved in this area on 199 days since 1852. To qualify for the Met Office’s Heat-Health Watch System the list, which goes back 163 years, narrows. However, to make my job easier, I have narrowed the list further to 3 consecutive days where the mean has been 23.5°C or higher. Though I loathe really hot weather in my experience I can put up with it for a couple of days. It is only when it gets to the third day of hot, sleepless nights that it starts becoming unbearable.
The 500mb renanalysis chart of the heatwave of August 1876
The first heatwave that fits my parameters, and ranks 7th in the heatwave premier league, began on August 13th 1876. Obviously in those days news would have taken a while to filter through. On the front page but tucked away at the bottom of the far right column of Reynolds’s Newspaper on August 20th a report talked on “excessive heat in Norfolk”:
“The weather has been intensely hot in Norfolk, and two fatal cases of sunstroke are reported from Blofield. A similar casualty occurred at Thorndon. A spark from a Great Eastern Railway engine has fired a barley field near Wherstead, Suffolk, in consequence of the extreme drought. The damage done is estimated at £300.”
A report on the “Glorious Twelfth” in the London Daily News on Monday 14th says:
“Not a cloud obscured the burning rays of the sun, and in the middle hours of the day moving about on the moor was not unattended with danger.” The weather was the complete opposite of the previous two years where “rain fell so continuously that only the keenest of the keen ventured abroad”.
500mb reanalysis of the 1893 heatwave
It would be another 26 years before Greenwich would see another heatwave of the same magnitude. Tucked away on page 16 of Lloyd’s Weekly Newspaper on Sunday 20th August 1893 a national round-up column spoke of ‘The Excessive Heat’ of the past week of that heatwave which ranks 11th in the league of heatwaves.
“A farmer, named Calvert, of Barlow, died of sunstroke on Tuesday whilst engaged in harvest work. A man named George Wight fell down in the street at Birmingham on Tuesday, and was taken to the hospital, where it was stated that he was suffering from sunstroke. The intense heat had a remarkable effect on the temperature of the sea in the Channel. A Sandwich correspondent said the water was the warmest it had been for 25 years.”
Several cases of sunstroke were recorded among soldiers from Plymouth Garrison. A regiment from West Riding were ordered off parade while some regiments took the unprecedented step of parading in shirtsleeves. An engine-driver, when running the express into Stoke station, became seriously ill and died directly after his admission to hospital. His death is attributed to the intense heat. Harvesters in Ashford, Kent, also downed tools after a fatality and several cases of sunstroke.
National newspapers of the day took a broader view of proceedings. The Daily Telegraph‘s assumption on the cause of the heatwave and prognosis of conditions was actually better than it is today.
“Not more than twice or thrice in the present century probably has heat as intense and persistent as that now registered been experienced in England. Since Saturday, when announced the formation of an anticyclone over the British islands, there has been a nearly constant and slowly progressive increase of temperature, until yesterday the maximum thermometric reading of the year so far was attained, 90 degrees in the shade being recorded at the Meteorological Office, Westminster.”
The Times on the same day remarked on how people were dealing with the intense heat:
“Such is the force of habit that the social mechanism still keeps working, though nobody really cares for anything except the heat. In the shops, in the Stock Exchange, even in Parliament, people meet and go through the form of doing business, but their langour tells its own story — that the sun has been too much for them.”
The paper describes a “great thunderstorm that had kept everyone in the south of England awake a week earlier” that was assumed to have been the end of a hot summer. But the heat built again.
“Sunday was one of the most exhausting days in human memory; and Tuesday and yesterday, at all events in London, were days to be remembered and quoted. Nothing more like a Italian scirocco has ever been felt here than the west wind which blew at midday yesterday. Very scientific thermometers, indeed, pretend that the heat was nothing exceptional, but the skin, the brain, and the temper of the average man told a different story.”
It would appear that the return of the heatwave took forecasters by surprise and the paper continues on with a familiar ‘why weren’t we warned’ tone:
“And the worst was that the forecast, to which our excellent Meteorological Office has taught us to look with so much confidence, promised quite other things. It spoke of weather unsettled, thundery, and showery later,” and in the north it promised ” westerly and varying breezes; changeable, showery, thundery, cooler. “What tricks were the barometers playing ? Was Ben Nevis having its little joke, or was the office itself suffering from sunstroke?”
On its front page on Saturday, August 19th, The Yorkshire Evening Post featured a prominent sketch of a City gent Picture courtesy of the British Newspaper Archive
The Daily Chronicle turned its editorial attentions to the “alarming” effects the heat was having on peoples’ attire
“The social effects began to operate at an early stage at Westminster, on temper as well on habiliments. They have now penetrated that last refuge of conventional respectability, the City, where the chimney-pot de rigueur has been dethroned by the straw of comfort, and the waistcoat has actually disappeared before the coloured silk scarf.”
The paper reports of people falling ill with fever in the heat, possibly caused by water supply. While the Thames, thanks to reforms by the County Council, was not smelling Glaswegians close to the Clyde were not so fortunate, the river being “overpoweringly odorous all the summer”.
“We must grin and bear it, as may. We shall grumble when the temperature falls, pretty much as we are doing now. For, Macanlay somewhere says, man is never satisfied with what he has, but is always straining after what he has not. And this is particularly true of Britons and their weather.”
Little is written of the 17th ranked 1906 heatwave that ran from August 31st to September 2nd though a diary note on page 3 of the Portsmouth Evening News on Thursday 6th September said the effect of the heat proved decidedly detrimental to education in Portsmouth. It reports:
“Not that the attendance has fallen off to any appreciable extent as result of the very trying weather, but its effect has been very marked, nevertheless, as the youngsters have proved very heavy and slack, with the result that the lot has been decidedly trying.”
The glorious summer of 1911, surprisingly, did not produce a spell that would satisfy my heatwave criteria.
August 9th, 1911, saw the first incident of 100F (37.8C) being recorded in London. The record beat the previous high on 97F. The report also makes mention that many areas recorded at least 97F
The season, which produced hot weather throughout July and August, is worthy of mention, however, because August 9th saw the first occasion 100°F was recorded in London. Considering the magnitude of this milestone the media of the day seemed reluctant to go overboard with the coverage, simply reporting the facts. The day after the hottest day ever the Dundee Evening Post had some advice on attire for hot weather, including a reported sighting of Keir Hardie in a “duck suit”.
By 1923, a heatwave that placed 14th, reports were going beyond records of temperature and heat-related deaths. On July 16th a reader of the Gloucester Citizen was bemoaning the fact that visitors to London were being subjected to “heatwave profiteering”.
Ice was in short supply and only available in restaurants and cafes and the price of fruit and salad had risen “beyond reason”. The author writes:
“A Fleet Street shop, for example, lemons have suddenly risen from a modest penny to a more formidable threepence, and the explanation is: “There has been an eruption at Etna, you know”. “To point out that the present stock of lemons was received long before Etna began to make its dangerous influences felt is merely to invite a shrug of the shoulders and gesture indicating “take it or leave it.”
The London Letter column in the Hull Daily Mail on Friday 13th July mentions MP’s braving the stifling heat to hear Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin’s statement on European policy, and also “London The Boil”.
“The heat wave continues to keep in its fiery grip. It absolutely dominates the daily lives of our seven million population, whose habits are rapidly approximating to those much nearer the equator. Hyde Park ladies fashionably attired may be seen sitting under sunshades beneath the shadiest trees in their stockinged feet. Their shoes rest beside them on the parched grass.”
“In Fleet Street there has been a long queue, as nondescript as an old-time butter queue during the war ration period, outside a shop where ice cream wafers are sold at the rate of about two hundred a minute. Men are wearing white suits, waistcoats have vanished, straw hats are at a premium. Most of the licensed bars are doing little more than pussyfoot trade in long iced teetotal drinks. An actor appearing in SoThis is London, says that he gets home half-an-hour earlier nowadays. Though the theatre is quite well filled, the audience is too hot to applaud. So the show goes slick through.”
The column, written decades before the advent of air conditioned comfort became the norm, also gives advice on where to keep cool in the capital. Previous favourites had included the cold-storage warehouses along the riverside at Blackfriars Bridge, the Monument and Westminster’s “Byzantine” tower.
“I am quite certain the coolest place in London is in a boat under the stone bridge that spans the Serpentine. Scores of overheated Londoners seek these cool arches. There, if you can crush in, you may smoke a cigarette, in almost too chilly comfort, while London boils just outside.”
The Yorkshire Evening Post on Friday, August 29th 1930 Image courtesy of British Newspaper Library
The heatwave of August 27th – 29th 1930, which ranks 15th,produced another interesting ‘London Letter’ column in the Portsmouth Evening News about too-hot cabs and heatwave profiteering: a greengrocer raising the price of lemons from 1d to 13d, despite there being crates available in storerooms!
This ‘Sainsbury & Son’ advert appeared on p7 of The Bucks Herald on Friday, August 19th, 1932
Two years later and newspapers were reporting the ‘hottest day for a generation’. The heatwave of August 18th – 20th August 1932 saw the temperature reach 99°F (37.2°C). This heatwave ranks 9th.
“Tragedies attributable to the heatwave were reported from all parts the kingdom yesterday. From the provinces 14 heat deaths were notified. Three cases of suicide which the Paddington coroner said were attributable to the effects of the intense heat and ill health were subjects of inquests Paddington yesterday afternoon.”
The Leicester Chronicle reported cases of heat exhaustion and the curious sight of people carrying home butter in jugs while the 7.25pm and 7.30pm express trains from King’s Cross to the Western Highlands had shower baths installed in sleeping cars to help passengers cope with the heat.
The heatwave of August 6th – August 8th 1947, which ranks 18th, was sparsely reported save for the usual heat stroke casualty stories and the fact that Cheltenham recorded 11 hours of sunshine on one sweltering day.
By 1948 signs of a move away from straight reporting of heatwaves were beginning to appear. An Hour in the Heatwave, a report taken during the hot spell of July 28th – 30th, ranked 12th, was published in the Essex Newsman.
The reporter, Gilbert Saunders, gave a simple but highly readable account of people going about their daily life in the heat.
“In the stadium The other side of the river, where Chelmsford have their stadium, Ted Boxall, private builder, was getting on with a job that he started on Wednesday and hopes to finish by today. He is making a surround and small archway for the counter over which cups of tea are passed to directors and guests in the board room under the grandstand. Ted (who asked : “You’re not mistaking me for Mr. Rowe, are you?”) was surrounded with litter of Essex boarding and sawdust. He paused to wipe a hot brow, explained that he does “lots of odd jobs” for the club. Ted gets a hand from the players when its needed. Earlier this week he finished off two sets of concrete steps, one each side of the grandstand, so that fans will be able to get on the raised ground without having to scramble up the sides of a small mountain of ash and clinkers.”
An hour in the heatwave, published in the Essex Newsman – Friday 30th July 1948
“On the Corner At London Road corner, his face red from the heat but bearing the everpresent grin, Special Constable Thorn clicked and swivelled his 6ft 3in and kept the traffic moving, all unaware that the next day’s Essex Chronicle was already printing a letter suggesting that his courtesy, service, and goodwill should be rewarded with the Freedom of Chelmsford.”
“In the Newspaper Office And inside the building of the Essex Chronicle, Norman White, bespectacled family man, sat down at the side of the roaring press and took a bite at some sandwiches. The first of seven editions was streaming out. “Ought to be pretty early tonight,” he shouted above the din. “With luck we should all be away between half-past nine and ten …… “
The Aberdeen Journal, in its edition published on Friday 30th July, reported on conditions in London and how the population was coping (or not!) with the heat:
“The metropolis last night was like a large restless household—with all the lights ablaze, doors and windows thrown open, the family fretful, and endless pots of tea brewing far into this morning.
“Perhaps one in ten among the 8,000,000 of us slept after midnight. For the rest, we tossed and turned and saw out this heatwave night, when temperatures were never below 71 degrees, a variety of ways. About midnight I walked past the gaunt old Edwardian mansions in Kensington. With the exception the lights that burned from every window, the scene was reminiscent of the early days of the Blitz.
“Families trekked across the roadway in varying stages of undress to their little bits of ornamental gardens. With them went camp beds, bed linen, umbrellas, “in case,” the children, and the household pets, choose a cool open-air camping spot and feel wonderfully adventurous and spartan in the process.”
Yorkshire Evening Post – Thursday 14 August 1947
“At regular intervals the adolescent members of the squatting colonies were dispatched to the tea and coffee stalls on the corner, and perhaps for the first time in years these traders ran out of stocks. On the Kensington-Chelsea boundary, where life becomes noticeably less inhibited and on occasions less swish, a mixed group of young artists was sleeping on the pavement off Fulham Road.
“Round the next corner, where many theatrical and film stars live, several had slung hammocks on their meagre front lawns – one actually suspended between the bathroom windows of two adjacent houses. Midnight street wear for both sexes was cool if unconventional —silk pyjamas, bath robes, tennis shorts, and one in kilt and bathing costume top who could have gone straight into the arena at Lonach.”
The column goes on to describe the situation in the House of Commons where the heat had reached “almost Turkish bath intensity”.
“Some members were in natty tussore silk suitings, but this helped little, and it was many of their number who appealed to the Speaker to have more windows opened. The Speaker, panting like the rest of us, said they were all open. If they wanted more cool breezes from the Thames, members would have to smash the windows.”
More evidence of reportage became evident during the June 1952 heatwave which ranks 8th.
A report on life in the heatwave published on July 5th 1952 Image courtesy of the British Newspaper Archive
Peter Chambers, of the Evening Express, wrote:
“London is hot. It is going to get hotter. That merry mercury column is poking up into the eighties already. That’s what faces us at the height of a heatwave.
“Bus tyres sizzle on the melted tarmac in the streets. At office windows, the girls are pattering away at their typrewriters with damp, discouraged fingers.
“It’s a scorcher. Even the sparrows are panting.”
The reporter describes the scene at London Bridge at 9.30am: “Well, as I came over London Bridge with the 9.30 surge of sweltering suburbia, a bus conductor hopped off his traffic-jammed vehicle and grabbed a couple of ice chips off a Billingsgate lorry. One for him, one for the driver. “What I want, mate,” said the driver ungratefully, “is a ‘ole block of the freezin’ stuff – to sit on.” That is the male reaction to the heatwave.
“The female reaction is typified by the secretary in this office, who buzzes off to the ladies’ room every half-hour to atomise herself with eau de cologne. Ever since she read that fragrant publicity handout, which said “It’s not enough, girls, NOT to be hot and sticky, you’ve got to smell NICE-TO-BE-NEAR…”
The author takes a walk past Embankment and up to Trafalgar Square: “The girls are in topless frocks. Even the men have got their jackets off – a sight abhored further east, where the rigid convention of the City demands that you sweat it out in your dark worsted, regardless.”
At 1pm he finds foreigners feeding the pigeons by Nelson’s Columns and Londoners feeding themselves on bags of strawberries priced at 1/9. By 3pm he’d made it to the Serpentine Lido along with 3,000 other people. He describes at like “Margate on a Bank Holiday”.
The summer of 1959 was glorious but many cool nights saw the season fall short of my 23.5C threshold. It would be a long time before summers were nice again.
The top 6 of my league of heatwaves are all occupied by much more recent events, including 1976 and 1990, both of which are dealt with in the blog I wrote last year – 50 years of London heatwaves. The heatwave that topped them all, in terms of sheer intensity and produced the UK’s hottest day ever, happened in 2003.
I have vague memories of the weeks of sunshine in 1976 but the hot spells that stick in my mind the most are August 1990, when the UK temperature record was set in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, and August 2003 when an 8-day hot spell saw the all-time UK temperature record broken when 38.5C was reached at Brogdale, near Faversham, Kent.
In terms of length, heat and sunshine, therefore, 2003 comes out on top. Though many people will argue that 1976 is the more impressive summer that year produced two spells that satisfy my criteria, coming in second and fifth. The first heatwave saw temperatures soar above 31° C for six consecutive days from June 23. The start of the second, on July 3, saw Bjorn Borg win the first of five Wimbledon mens’ titles as he prevailed over Ilie Nastase in 35°C heat. The summer of 1995, which saw my driest-ever August with just 0.7mm of rainfall all month, comes in 3rd, with six days of mean temperatures of 23.5°C or higher.
Looking back through history it is not really surprising that 2003 comes out on top. While it was hot in London the heatwave across the Channel contributed to the death of over 70,000 people throughout Europe, France being the most affected.
A complete set of 500mb reanalysis charts have been uploaded and can be watched as a GIF movie
* There were hot spells before 1852 but I have excluded these: Luke Howard’s maxima observations from Plaistow, Stratford and Tottenham were taken under non-standard conditions and may be on the high side. I have instead focused my investigation on data recorded at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich.
** For some reason the data during a couple of years in the 1950s was incomplete – to fill in these gaps I used official data gathered at Kew. The data is completed up to the present day using my own observations taken since 1988.
*** As already mentioned prior to these dates data is unreliable as conditions for collection were not strictly controlled. However, there are many records of extreme heat. On Sunday, August 1, 1868, the Gloucester Journal published a report on the “Heat of previous years” detailing an account of hot spells going back to 1806. “Mr. G. J. Symons gives a number of interesting particulars in reference the heat of previous seasons in this country. We abstract the following
1806: Very hot in parts of June and July. At Plaistow the temperature was 95 degrees on June 10th, and 90 degrees or upwards on three days.
1808: Very hot from July 12th to 19th. On the 12th a thermometer in perfect shade in a window in St James’s Park was 81.5 degrees at 3pm, and on the 13th at the same hour, 94 degrees. On the same day four men and seven women were killed by sunstroke in various parts of the Midland counties, and numerous coach and other horses were also killed. On the 15th a very violent and destructive thunderstorm in Gloucestershire, Monmouthshire, and surrounding counties.
1818:July a very hot month. At Tottenham on the 24th Luke Howard registered 93 degrees at Somerset House on the same day it was 89 degrees, and in the Strand 87 degrees at noon. The mean temperature of that day at Greenwich was 79.2 degrees, which was higher than any other day between 1814 and 1863. The following paragraph appeared in the Gentleman’s Magazine for September, 1818: “It is worthy of remark that the heat of the present summer has been universal. From the north to the south of Europe the heat has been greater and more lasting than for 40 years On July 24th the thermometer here (where!) was 98 degrees, which had never been reached except on July 16th, 1793. At Paris July 31st it was 93 degrees and at Philadelphia 100 degrees.” From 19th to 21st violent thunderstorms in the west of England.
1825: July remarkable, if not unique, in its constant and excessive temperature. At Stratford Luke Howard registered 90 degrees or upwards on seven days, the highest being 97 degrees on the 18th.
1826: The heat was very great. In May the thermometer reached 76 degrees, June 92, July 89, August 85. Two men were killed by sunstroke near London. The fields were as brown as the roads. After two months’ drought the rivulets were gone, and many of the wells dry. The hay crop was deficient from long drought. Country is parched, and corn in some places, though only a few inches above ground, was shooting into ear. Several hills and moors caught fire. In Worcestershire the excessive heat and drought almost wholly destroyed the pasturage, and trees were lopped to feed the cattle.
1846: July 5 was very hot, 93.3 degrees being registered at Greenwich, and 94 degrees at Clapham (94 degrees has been recorded there again in the only other instance at that station.
1852: July of this wet year was remarkably hot, the mean monthly temperature (66.6 degrees) having only been exceeded by July 1778 when it was 67 degrees; and July 1859 when it was 68.1 degrees. Tho extreme heat, however, was only 90.3 degrees at Greenwich.
1857: On June 28, 92.7 deg. was recorded at Greenwich.
1858: June was a very hot day, 94.5 degrees being reached at Greenwich.
1859: Temperatures of 92, 92.5, and 93.0 degrees were recorded at Greenwich.”
This summer is looking an average one. Before you write it off, however, average summers do come with decent spells of warmth and sunshine. But I think the old saying that an English summer consists of three fine days and a thunderstorm will be used more than once this year…
To reach my conclusion on this summer I have used pattern matching of meteorological data from this area for March, April and May stretching back to 1799.
The dry and sunny weather of March and April was tempered by a very average May. The mean for the spring season was 10.5C with 75.8mm of rain and 511 hours of sunshine.
If you take into account all years that were within +/- 10 per cent of these figures, for rainfall and then mean temperature, you get the following table.
The ‘best fit’ years were revealed as 1844, 1870, 1880, 1943, 1995, and 2009. As an average this summer could be expressed as: Mean: 17.4C (about average) Rainfall: 127.3mm (below average) Sunshine: 567hrs (about average)
Or, expressed in probabilities, I concluded the following:
Very Warm ( above 20.4) 0%
Warm (19.4 – 20.3) 0%
Rather warm (18.4-19.3) 17%
Average (16.9C – 18.3C) 50%
Rather Cool (15.9 – 16.8) 33%
Cool (14.9 – 15.8) 0%
Very cool (below 14.8C) 0%
Very Wet ( 3.8 x average) 0%
Wet (2.9 x average) 0%
Rather wet (1.9 x average) 0%
Average 50%
Rather dry (0.7 x average) 33%
Dry (0.5x average) 17%
Very dry (0.25 x average) 0%
So from the above you could deduce that the next three months will be average to rather cool, with average to slightly below average rainfall. Sunshine average.
Trying to predict daily detail over the next 3 months is impossible, but looking at the ‘best fit’ years mentioned above it is probable that the opening 10 days of June will be among the coolest of the summer.
Of interest to most will be when are the hot spells most likely to happen. Considering the median of all rain days a dry spell happened without fail between the dates of June 28th – June 30th and August 15th – August 19th; both these spells likely ending with thundery breakdowns. Another date to bear in mind for a possible two-day fine spell is July 24th-25th.
So, all-in-all, a mixed bag. Looking at the ‘best-fit’ years, however, it is worthwhile noting that although the overall picture looks average there exists the record-breaking dry August of 1995 and the notably wet and thundery July of 1880.
My summer forecast last year was broadly correct. How this one will fair obviously only time will tell. One could argue that what I’m forecasting is just climatology which has a good chance of being correct should no external influences, such as a huge eruption on Mount Etna, have a bearing on the end result.
* Taking into account the fact that temperatures in London are up to 0.66C warmer than they were 100 years ago I have added 0.66C to mean temperatures before 1915.
** Obviously, in the event of a series of direct hits from thunderstorms, my rainfall estimate could be hopelessly short – a symptom of abundant solar energy at this time of year which creates a ‘noisy’ atmosphere compared with winter.
*** The 1981-2010 average mean for summer in this region is 17.6C, with 144.9mm of rain and 564 hours of sunshine
April showers bring spring flowers – or so the saying goes. The month was actually sunny and very dry with less than 50% of what falls in a normal month.
The cold nights and often chilly days helped to preserve spring blossom, with some stunning displays on streets around the borough.
Indeed just one day, the 30th, was what you could say was a classic April day – a sunny, clear morning saw convection build towering cumulus clouds with a light shower around lunchtime.
Mean temperature for the month was 10.6C, 0.8C above the 1981-2010 mean, over 1C cooler than April last year. Rainfall of 18.9mm was 45% of average – six of the last seven Aprils have been notably dry.
There were 201 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is 126% of what we can expect to see during an average April. The wettest day occurred on the 25th with 4.7mm. Air frosts: 5 Ground frosts: 13
So what has May got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (May 1st) suggest next days remain unchanged with troughs moving NE across the UK over the weekend introducing warmer air with a mix of sunshine and showers following. A new LP looks like developing over western France on Monday becoming absorbed in the main low to the west of the UK bringing a more sustained westerly feed ahead of rising pressure from the south later toward the weekend, bringing fine and summery conditions. The risk of rain should decrease as the week goes on.
Beyond that the outlook, as ever, is uncertain.
My long range method suggests the month will be average in terms of temperature: 80% probability. The next highest chance is for rather mild at 20% probability. Rainfall is looking average to slightly below average, though at only 60% probability. It looks like another sunny month is in prospect – 80% probability of sunshine at 1.2 times the mean.
So with a slightly changable start to the month we can look forward to another sunny, pleasant spring month without heatwaves?
Long spells of cirrus gave a solar halo on the 17th.
My April outlook was good in that it ruled out any chance of a very mild or very cold month. The combined probability of 72% for an average to rather mild month was correct. I was, however, completely off with the rainfall, the signal for which was greater than average
1st: Bright start but very breezy through the morning and afternoon. Rain after 11pm and again at 3.30am.
2nd: Bright start though sunny spells increased through the day. Felt really pleasant out by noon. Some rain in the early hours before obs time.
3rd: Cloudy through the day with some rain late afternoon.
4th: Cloudy all day though with some drizzly rain. Some brightness was seen on way in to South Kensington in the Whitechapel area.
5th: Cloudy, cold start but with sunny spells developing through the day. Pleasant in the sun.
6th: Sunny start with cloud building from time to time. Cloud cleared overnight to give a ground frost.
7th: Sunny start with long clear periods through the day.
8th: Cloudy start gradually cleared to hazy sunshine. Cloudier again in afternoon.
9th: Cloudy start though soon brightening up for a sunny day in town.
Typical April days of sunshine and showers were in short supply. There were some stunning sunsets, including this one on the 30th
10th: Cloudy start though cloud quickly thinned to leave sunny day. However, cloud was hazy at times with bad pollution seen over London. Also a few drops of rain were observed rain around edge of Ornamental Waters. Humid.
11th: Drizzle turned to moderate rain that was over in 45 minutes and cleared to sunny intervals, then longer sunny periods through the day. Much cooler than yesterday.
12th: Sunny start led to a day of long sunny spells. Sky was initially a deep blue but hazy cumulus built up after 4pm.
13th: Cloudy start, some brightness in the afternoon.
14th: Sunny, gin clear start. Sunny all day with light breeze taking edge off temp.
15th: Sunny, clear start for RMetS meeting. Slight breeze kept edge off temp. Some light clouds late afternoon. Cooling off quickly in early hours.
16th: Sunny spells in the morning.
17th: Sunny though long spells of cirrus gave a solar halo. Chilly in the wind.
18th: Sunny spells to start though cloud decreased to leave gin clear afternoon. Dew point dropped to 1.5C making it feel very chilly.
19th: Bright start but cloud quickly filled in leaving it feeling cold in the wind. Some sunshine after 5pm making it a pleasant if a bit cold in the wind evening.
20th: Sunny and mostly clear all day. Much warmer.
21st: Sunny and mostly clear all day. More contrails though. Chilly overnight again.
22nd: Sunny start though cloud filled in earlier than yesterday. Nowhere near as warm.
23rd: Cloudy start though the cloud decreased and was gin clear by 12.15pm.
24th: Sunny start although hazy at times. Cloud gradually increased late afternoon and light rain arrived 1am.
25th: Cloudy start though plenty of breaks in the cloud developed allowing for a pleasant afternoon.
26th: Slight drizzle to start then cloudy and cold all day. Cold overnight in clearer spells.
27th: Sunny start. Clouds bubbled up though the day with showers reported elsewhere. It threatened rain in Wanstead but stayed dry.
28th: Sunny start with just a few clouds through the day. Feeling cold though.
29th: Light rain to start though this suddenly cleared at 10.15am before clouding over again.
30th: Sunny start with clouds bubbling up. A light shower in Snaresbrook.
The saying March: in like a lion, out like a lamb and vice versa is frequently wrong. This March saw it windy at the beginning, end and middle of the month.
This graph shows the ‘wind run’ of every day in March. Notice how the peaks are at the beginning, middle and end of the month
Mean temperature for the month was 7.6C, 0.1C below the 1981-2010 mean, over 1C cooler than March last year. Rainfall of 17.9mm was 44% of average – four of the last five Marches have been notably dry.
There were 131.5 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is precisely 121% of what we can expect to see during an average March. The wettest day occurred on the 29th with 4.2mm. Hail fell on 1 day. Air frosts: 5 Ground frosts: 13
So what has april got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (April 1st) suggest a dominance of high pressure though there’s lots of uncertainty as to where this will drift once it has formed over the Easter weekend. If it moves north there is a risk of chilly easterly winds at times that will take the edge off temperatures.
Rainfall amounts will be small after the next couple of days though sunshine amounts will be reduced if we get the cold easterly feed off the continent. Beyond that the outlook, as ever, is uncertain.
My long range method suggests the month will be average in terms of temperature: 43% probability. The next highest chance is for rather mild at 29% probability. Rainfall is looking greater than average, though at 57% probability.
My March outlook was good in that it ruled out any chance of a very mild month. Though the signal was for a cold month overall I think the fact that Scandinavia and Russia had a relatively mild winter meant that the resulting overall temperature was far milder than it normally would have been, given the air flow.
1st: Sunny start with more cloud afternoon and a rain squall sweeping through at 5.30pm. Cold wind.
2nd: Sunny start though cold wind. Odd shower.
3rd: Sunny start but with cloudier periods and odd spot of rain up to 2pm. Skies turned really dark to the north but no reports of heavy rain. Cold overnight but no air frost due to the wind.
4th: Sunny spells with cloudier intervals.
5th: Sunny, frosty start. Cloud bubbling up with sun becoming scarcer.
6th: Sunny and clear with just a few cirrus.
7th: Sunny start, just a few cirrus though more breeze
8th: Sunny start though more clouds bubbling up than yesterday.
9th: Sunny start was quickly replaced by overcast conditions. Spots of rain on way into work – signs of something heavier when left work at midnight. Clear again by morning.
10th Sunny start with some cirrus type haze. Cloud bubbled up but sunnier than yesterday.
11th: Sunny start, cloud growing thicker through the day before a pink sunset. Some light rain before a clear night.
12th Sunny start and just a few clouds around. Cloud thicker in afternoon.
13th Hazy bright start though cloud thickened.
14th: Sunny start quickly turned cloudy and dull. More brightness in afternoon though cold wind. Early shower at 6.30am.
15th: Dull start into the morning. Some light rain late morning and during the afternoon. More rain after midnight and just beofre dawn.
16th: Cloudy start though with bright intervals in the afternoon. Area of light rain around 4am.
17th: Cloudy start with light rain spreading in. Brighter by 1pm though very misty on ride in to work. Misty again overnight.
18th: Cloudy, misty start though much more sunshine than yesterday on ride to Lea Valley. Cloudier overnight.
19th: Cloudy and dull all day, feeling cold – the cloud persisting into the evening.
20th; Cloudy start for the eclipse. The sky cleared about 12.30pm to leave bright sunshine and a pleasant, springlike afternoon. Early ground frost before sky clouded over.
21st: Cloudy but some spots of drizzle mid-morning. Dry and cloudy afternoon.
22nd: Sunny start though cloud increased through the day. Felt cold in the wind.
23rd: Bright start with lots of sunshine through the morning. Gradually filling in though feeling much milder than of late. Some light rain in the evening, heaviest between 3.30am and 5am.
24th: Cloudy start though with some bright spells. A short shower at 3ish.
25th: Sunny, cloudy start though with lots of high cloud filling in. Brief ground frost moved in just before midnight before rain moved in just before 4.30am.
26th: Drizzly light rain to start – felt cold. Not a nice day.
27th: Bright start with lots of watery sunshine through the day. Spits and spots of rain later as walked home from Wanstead.
28th: Cloudy start and mild with some brightness. Feeling mild. Some rain overnnight.
29th: Drizzly start with heavier bursts of rain, these fell through the day, drying up in the evening.
30th: Bright start with some sunny spells. Wind increased in strength through the day and was very strong overnight.
31st: Bright start after a stormy overnight that prompted a tug rescue that overturned in the Solent. Dartford Bridge was also closed. Showers surrounding Wanstead but only trace here – hail seen in City. Cold and windy overnight.
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