All posts by wansteadmeteo

A blog that tries to make sense of how the UK's national climate translates into local weather for Wanstead and the surrounding regions of east London and west Essex. Check out my twitter feed @wanstead_meteo for local weather forecasts, stats, records and phenomena for the east London areas of Wanstead, Aldersbrook, Leytonstone and Stratford. And anything else weather

July 2015: average, wet and dull

The title of this monthly review is probably very misleading as July was a month that blew hot and cold.

The Casella 'check' thermometer registered 35.8C on July 1st - 0.3C lower than the AWS reading, within the contraints
The Casella ‘check’ thermometer registered 35.8C on July 1st – 0.3C lower than the AWS reading, within the contraints

The start of the month began with the July all-time record being set: 36.1C. The month ended with a couple of very chilly nights: 6.9C in the early hours of 31st with a grass minimum of 4.5C. I haven’t yet been able to go through my records but, according to the Met Office, temperatures in southern England on the same night that fell to 1C represent an all-time low July record.

There were ten occasions when the maximum exceeded 25C. Mean temperature for the month was 18.6C, 0.1C above the 1981-2010 mean and the coolest July since 2012. Rainfall of 70.4mm was 162% of average though it is worth noting that three quarters of this was recorded on two days.

There were 174 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is 91% of what we can expect to see during an average July. The wettest day occurred on the 24th with 32.4mm of rain. There were two days of thunder recorded.

IMG_3877So what has August got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (August 1st) suggest very little change in the overall pattern of things. The jet stream is still well south across the Atlantic and is likely to remain so for the forseeable future. However, because we are on the eastern side of the troughed flow across the eastern Atlantic this allows the potential for some very warm or even hot conditions to be drawn up across the UK in the coming five days and possibly beyond. However, the longer projections turns the flow more west to east across the south of the UK again returning cooler air to the SE as well in week two.

This means a continuation of changeable conditions as low pressure remains anchored in the north-west or north of the UK. Thunder could be likely.

In contrast to the models my long range method suggests that we are in for a rather cool August, about 1C below average, at 41% probability. The next highest probability is for something average at 27% probability. So an average to rather cool August works out at 68% probability.

Rainfall is uncertain. There is the same probability for dry (50% average) and very wet (175% average): 23% probability. However, the next highest probability is for average at 18%.

This grainy image shows distant lightning illuminating a cloud. The storm was centred over St Albans
This grainy image shows distant lightning illuminating a cloud. The storm was centred over St Albans on July 16th

My data for sunshine only stretches back to 1878. There is a 73% chance of a duller than average August.

My July outlook was very poor, I predicted a rather warm to warm month – but it was nothing like last year’s or the 2013 classic. My rainfall and sunshine predictions were also hopelessly out. However, it was the first month since January that my temperature forecast has been wide of the mark. It’s just weather – in that it frequently doesn’t do what you think it’s going to do.

Here follows the full weather diary for July…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

1st: Sunny until after midday when cloud bubbled up and took edge of temperature. Hottest July day ever was set at 5pm. Breeze made it feel bearable.
2nd: Sunny start though cloud quickly built with rain at midday. Just 0.3mm fell which evaporated on impact with the hot ground.
3rd: Sunny, clear day though humidity began to build from mid afternoon with the appearance of cloud. Still sunny spells till late into the evening. Big thunderstorm from around midnight for an hour.
4th: Sunny and muggy start. Long sunny spells, hardly a cloud in the sky until later. Sunny dawn but rain arrived at 9am.
5th: Light rain to start. This cleared late morning to sunny spells. Feeling muggy.
6th: Sunny start though lots of fair weather cumulus bubbled up.
7th: Cloudy start with light patchy rain around 11.30am, clearing to sunny spells. Some rain after 9am.
8th Cloudy and blustery with rain in the air. A few showers around.
9th: Sunny with just a few clouds, low humidity. Sky completely cleared after 3pm for a gorgeous evening.
10th: Sunny start. Some cloud bubbling up as jetstream neared – lots of cirrus and then cirrocumulus forming. Turned sunnier late afternoon. Also dawned clear and sunny.
11th: Long sunny spells with just a few cirrus and cumulus at times. Feeling warm and humid. Some light rain around midnight but not amounting to much.
12th: Cloudy and comparatively cool compared with recently. Light rain at 5pm with drizzle in wind through evening. More rain at 7.30am that fell intermittently up to obs time.
13th: Light rain to start with bursts through morning to 10.45am. Further bursts of light rain into early afternoon then overcast and muggy all night. More drizzle early am.
14th: Drizzly start – this continued into late morning. Then overcast and muggy. More drizzly burst overnight into the early hours – drizzle was persistent from 8.30am to 9am.
15th: Sunny intervals after light drizzle.
16th: Bright and sunny spells tending to turn more cloudy after midday. Big electrical storm around midnight with 67 flashes per minute seen to the north-west.
17th: Light drizzle to start turned to bright spells and a pleasant summer’s day.
18th: Sunny start with cloud bubbling up late afternoon. Light rain shower at 8.30 at end of Music in Wanstead Park and again in early hours at 6am.
19th: Sunny morning tended to cloud in at midday before cold front cleared to leave sunny evening. Mackerel sky at dusk with light rain at 8.15am.
20th: Showery rain to start.
21st: Sunny start but clouds bubbled up through the day for long sunny spells. Warm with a breeze.
22nd: Sunny start, cloud bubbling up during the day with spots of rain at 5pm – heavy shower in Wanstead.
23rd: Cloudy with occasional bright spells, feeling humid.
24th: Drizzly start. rain started falling at 11am. Outbreaks of prolonged rain through the day, heaviest between 5pm and 6pm. More rain after 8pm but then a drier interlude before more rain at midnight as occluded front came back. Last tip of the gauge just before 4am.
25th: Sunny and breezy though much cooler. A pleasant evening at John’s party though. Cloudy spells overnight before rain moved in at 9am.
26th: Rain to start with heavy outbreaks up to 1pm. Further outbreaks of rain through the day and into the evening.
27th: Drizzly bursts of rain to 11am. Then dry and bright.
28th: Bright and breezy to start. A light shower in evening then cool and clear – sunny start.
29th: Bright start but cloud filling in. Burst of rain at 8.30pm then variable cloud overnight.
30th: Bright but a burst of rain just after 10am. Then mostly cloudy with a few bright breaks.
31st: Sunny start but cloud filled in.

75th anniversary of the Blitz in Wanstead

This month marks the 75th anniversary of the start of the Blitz in Wanstead and Woodford. Over a period of eight months around 450 bombs were dropped on the two boroughs, killing 129 people and injuring 194.

The Churchill statue at Woodford Green
The Churchill statue at Woodford Green

The summer of 1940 had been varied; a warm and dry June was followed by a cool and wet July. The weather turned much warmer and drier in August, just 2mm of rain fell during the whole month. Only one August has been drier since and parts of London went 46 days without any measurable rain.

As people got on with their summer and the Phoney War (Britain had been in conflict with Germany for nearly a year) events in Europe must have seemed a world away. This all changed just after 11pm on Wednesday, August 28th when two high explosive bombs and one incendiary were dropped at two addresses in Woodford Green. Damage was light and only one minor injury was reported but the event brought home to citizens that the war was starting to happen on their doorsteps.

The days that followed were fraught with uncertainty; sirens sounded at any time of the day or night – the rapping of machine guns could be heard faintly in the skies as British fighters and enemy spotters fought invisible battles; the anti-aircraft guns pounding away on outlying sites including Wanstead Flats.

On the afternoon of Saturday, August 31st, a British fighter plane crashed in Hereford Road, taking out the front of a house and landing in the road – the pilot having earlier bailed out.

The opening week of September saw the hottest spell of the season. But summer, and the relative peace that Britain had enjoyed since the announcement of hostilities a year earlier, came to an abrupt end on September 7th.new high street

It had been a beautiful day on the 7th with wall-to-wall sunshine and warm temperatures – the eighth day running the thermometer had reached the mid to late 70s fahrenheit. Many people were outside taking advantage of the weather when at 5pm the drone of the first Luftwaffe bombers could be heard passing to the south of the borough. By 6pm the skies were empty but all Thameside blazed.

The bombers struck again soon after 8pm, guided to their earlier smoking targets of the docks and the East End. As the sun began to set a red glow in the sky to the west and south-west gave the impression that all London was burning.

Wanstead and Woodford, so far unscathed, sent rescue parties to East Ham to help. Within a few hours, however, the area itself became the target of bombing when, at 1.25am, the first of three high explosive bombs fell in the Grove Park area behind the High Street. Two houses (Nos. 7 and 9) in Grove Park and the central block of the Shrubbery flats collapsed. A row of shops in the High Street, what is now Boots, was badly damaged by the third bomb which was dropped along with about 500 incendiaries.

A fire gutted the roof of 30 High Street, a house overlooking Christchurch Green, which is now a large block of flats on the corner of Wanstead Place, opposite the pie and mash shop.

FullSizeRender (1)The explosions left eight dead in the immediate vicinity while another blast in Highfield Road, Woodford Green, claimed the lives of three others. Some 50 people were injured across the two boroughs during the raid which was over by 2.30am. Rescue teams worked through the night to combat fires and tend to the injured. Wanstead and Woodford had suffered far less damage than other parts of London and a decision had already been taken to accept 2,000 evacuees from the East End. By Sunday lunchtime the first of these began to arrive in buses and lorries.

It was a dull day, ten degrees cooler than Saturday and probably reflected the public mood at the time. The bombings went on nightly through September – in the next two months there was little falling off. The manner of peoples’ lives is summed up in this entry from the diary of a local man:

“Night of September 11-12: Terrific AA barrage ended about 5am. To bed at 5.40. At 6.20 phone call saying office hit and we were to work at – . Left home at 7am. Settled down in strange building with difficulty, and grew so overwhelmingly sleepy that (having been awake for 5 nights) fell asleep standing up.”

But, two days later:

“Saturday 14th – left office 2 o’clock and spent two hours gardening. Beautiful autumn afternoon.”

As the boroughs learnt to cope with high explosive bombs, each weighing between 250-2,000lbs, the horror of the first parachute mine emerged within a couple of weeks. On September 23, a paramine fell in the Stanley Road area of South Woodford, killing 17 people – the highest number of deaths recorded in any single incident in the borough.

The borough was the first district to experience an explosive incendiary. A fire watcher of over 70 lost the sight of an eye from this type of bomb but continued on duty until the end of the war.

A warden called “Will” wrote this letter to his parents on September 29th 1940. It is intriguing for me because in the letter he mentions a house that I lived in in Cavendish Drive, Leytonstone. He says that an incendiary bomb lodged in the loft before burning through to the floor. While decorating one year I uncovered scorch marks in the landing well as well as charred damaged on the bannister and scorch marks on the floorboards – evidence of bomb damage.

As Wanstead, Woodford and the rest of suburban London got over the initial shock of the start of the Blitz people acted to keep life going as normally as possible. Many people who weren’t appointed as wardens learnt, through local authority training, to deal with incendiary bombs – airborne missiles dropped by the Luftwaffe that could easily pierce slate roofs and set fires below. Stirrup pumps could be bought and, through a family effort, fires could be extinguished or controlled until the arrival of the fire brigade. 

The intensity of the night raids that brought so much destruction in September continued through October. The neighbouring borough of Woodford bore the brunt of the bombing but Wanstead, being so close to anti-aircraft guns sited on Wanstead Flats, continued to be hit.  On the 11th six high explosive bombs fell on Wanstead Park, one damaging the Temple. Two days later high explosive bombs fell on land close to the City of London Cemetery on Aldersbrook Road, leaving six craters. 
On the 14th three people were killed when a high explosive bomb landed in Woodlands Avenue on the Aldersbrook estate while incediaries caused many small fires in properties on Elmcroft Avenue. By the end of October the attacks started to be scaled back.
3:11:1940
Synoptic chart for November 3rd 1940. Image courtesy of the Met Office

Bad weather at the start of November coincided with a 6-day pause in bombing incidents. It was a very cyclonic month that probably hampered German air operations. Indeed, on November 3rd, 40.8mm of rain was recorded at Greenwich – a daily record for November that remains to this day. 

Another 6-day pause in the bombing happened after November 16th. When the Luftwaffe returned on Saturday, November 23rd, it was Wanstead that bore the brunt. At 4.12pm, as light was fading on a dull, dreary afternoon, high explosive bombs caused fires at and partly demolished nos 78 and 89 New Wanstead. A minute later another bomb ruptured water and gas mains in Spratt Hall Road. At 4.30pm a further high explosive bomb fell in the High Street, killing 4 people. The raid ended at 5.16pm as a bomb fell in Fitzgerald Road though this time there were no injuries. 
By now the weather was beginning to quieten down though weeks of deep depressions with associated gales and heavy rain had taken their toll – many residents reported problems of Anderson bomb shelters being constantly flooded – but it was probably the design as much as the weather that was to blame. Some 171.6mm of rain was collected by month end in Greenwich – a record for this region that also remains to this day. 
As pressure built in the last few days of November the first frosts of winter arrived but the bombs returned. High explosive devices fell in Woodford New Road and Bunces Lane on the 30th, fracturing a water main. 
On December 3rd bombs fell in Nelson Road, Woodford Road and Eagle Lane, damaging road surfaces. Later the same night houses in Wellington Road and Elmcroft Avenue were badly damaged by bombs.

wordsworthThe final raid of the year, on the evening of December 8th, saw yet more tragedy befall the boroughs. Just after 7pm a high explosive bomb fell in St Albans Road, killing three people. And at 10.25pm a paramine was dropped on Wordsworth Avenue, South Woodford, killing 14 people and injuring 41.

The raids didn’t start up again until January 5th. Mostly dry, cloudy and cold weather allowed residents who hadn’t moved out to make what they could of Christmas.

The turn of the year saw the weather turn much colder as an anticyclone became established over Scandinavia. The opening week was dominated by bitterly cold easterly winds with temperatures barely above freezing, severe frosts at night and some snow – a near repeat of the severe January a year earlier.

figuresOn January 5th bombs were dropped on St Albans Crescent and Canfield Road. Further high explosive bombs fell in the area on the 7th and 11th as the cold continued to bite. The minimum on the night of the 15th/16th fell to minus 7.5°C, but during the third week a thaw set in as heavy snow turned to rain, it became misty, and temperatures slowly rose. On the 20th, nearly 17mm of rain (including melted snow) fell, and on the 22nd the temperature rose above 8°C.

A dull and rather wet February followed with temperatures close to normal. The early part of the month was cold with frost and some snow. After a minimum temperature below minus 6°C. on the night of the 4th/5th, outbreaks of snow occurred during the day and the maximum temperature stayed below freezing. Though it was cold in Wanstead much heavier snowfalls occurred over north-east England. A thaw set in at the end of the first week, and on the 8th the maximum was above 11°C.

Just one raid happened in February but further horror lay in wait in March – a month which continued the theme of the wet, miserable and dull winter. The early part of the month was unsettled with heavy rain at times. On the 6th, over 13mm fell. During the second week it became dry with sunny periods. There were some frosty nights and lingering fog. On the 12th, the maximum temperature was only 5°C. Temperatures slowly rose during the third week.

On the 19th four members of the Civil Defence Services gave their lives as they went about their duties at Post 41 “F” District headquarters (Aldersbrook Tennis Club), an area of South Wanstead, which, from the battering it received from the early days of bombing (and which later continued through the phases of the flying bomb and the V2 rocket) became known as “The Battle Field” or “Hell Fire Corner”.

The following impression of that night is written by one who was at the scene:

“The wail of the siren opposite the Post announced at 8.15pm the arrival of the raiders. The Post personnel saw a startling sight. The Flats were a sea of flame. Thousands of incendiaries were burning on the open space. The guns roared. It was obvious that the enemy was making a concerted and determined attack. Bomb flashes stabbed the blackout. Planes droned overhead. The batteries on the Flats joined those further away in putting up a terrific barrage.

Screen Shot 2015-07-28 at 12.37.33At 8.50pm, three high explosive bombs fell in Lake House Road, damaging a number of houses and partly demolishing Nos 14 and 31. A few casualties resulted, one being a man who was trapped in the doorway of No. 14. Wardens heaved on the obstruction to release him. Gas escaping in the same house caused a fire. This was quickly dealt with and the flames smothered. A nearby barrage balloon had burst into flames, illuminating the scene with glaring brilliance and revealing the widespread damage.

At 9.20pm this first incident appeared closed, and services were awaiting the result of a final search and check-up before being dismissed. Then a parachute mine landed. It exploded a few yards from Aldersbrook corner on the Leytonstone side. A house in Lake House Road, already badly damaged, tottered to destruction. Number 11 caught fire and was destroyed. Loss of life would have been heavy but for the fact that most of the inhabitants had by now taken refuge in the Aldersbrook public shelter, and those who remained were in their dugouts.

The attack died down. Wardens returned to their posts – but the number for 41 was sadly lacking. The two boys’ bicycles stood in their usual place. ‘Busy somewhere’ said the chief. But the absent ones did not return, and a search was made. They were found – in the mortuary, three of them. It was known that two others had been taken to hospital. Warden Barnett was one of these. He died next morning of his injuries.

Just before the mine exploded, the messengers had been giving assistance in one of the less badly-damaged houses. Broome, although officially not on duty, had rushed out to lend a hand. Warden Hutton was endeavouring to turn off the gas at No 14 when the mine fell.

So the four from Post 41 died doing their duty on the Home Front. The two boys, pals in the service, sleep in one grave in Old Wanstead churchyard. The two men lie close by, in Ilford Cemetery.

A few days later their comrades stood silently at attention as the funeral cortege halted outside the Post. A Union Jack covered each of the four coffins.

The four members of the Civil Defence Services who gave their lives were: Thomas Hutton, 44, a warden, of Blake Hall Crescent, Wanstead; William Barnett, 36, a warden, of Belgrave Road, Wanstead; Roy Broome, 17, a messenger, of Lake House Road, Wanstead; and Herbert Stower, 18, a messenger, of Clavering Road, Wanstead.

Winston Churchill's letter to his constituents
Winston Churchill’s letter to his constituents

As spring wore on the weather remained mostly miserable though raid incidents lessened and petered out in May. Wanstead and Woodford had its last bombs of the period on May 10th. There were no more that year.

In total 129 people lost their lives and 194 were injured during the campaign. This figure would nearly double when the next phase of the bombing, using V1 flying bombs and V2 rockets, would begin three years later in June 1944.

It is hard to imagine how people coped with the constant barrage of bombs during the Blitz. What seems to get lost in articles and historical texts I’ve read is just how grim the weather was at the time – remember this was a time before central heating. Not only were bedrooms freezing cold people must have laid there wondering if they were going to see morning.

It seems to be a human condition that when we are faced with adversity we just find a way of ‘getting on with it’ as best we can.

This graph shows how much colder the weather was at the time of the Blitz compared with the period September 2014 - May 2015
This graph shows how much colder the weather was at the time of the Blitz compared with the period September 2014 – May 2015
Wanstead and the surrounding area is shown to be peppered with bombs on the website http://bombsight.org/ but many of the accounts listed in Tiquet's book are not listed
Wanstead and the surrounding area is shown to be peppered with bombs on the website http://bombsight.org/ but many of the accounts listed in Tiquet’s book are not listed

* Much of the inspiration for this blog comes thanks to the book It Happened Here by Stanley Tiquet. The book is available for loan and can be purchased at Redbridge libraries.

Fading faith in St Swithin

Legend has it that the weather on St Swithin’s will be the same for the next 40 days.

St Swithin’s day, if thou dost rain,
For forty days it will remain;
St Swithin’s day, if thou be fair,
For forty days ’twill rain na mair.

St Swithin’s Day is probably among the most well known of weather folklore – but, taken at face value, it is probably the most unreliable.

Grasslands around Wanstead Park have gradually turned brown because of the lack of rainfall since March
Grasslands around Wanstead Park have gradually turned brown because of the lack of rainfall since March

Since 1848 Wanstead and the surrounding region has enjoyed 93 dry St Swithin’s Days (56%). From these the longest dry spell that followed was just 18 days, in 2000. On average, if St Swithin’s is dry, the weather stays fair for 3 days, with rain arriving on the 18th. Many dry St Swithin’s Days (17%) are followed by rain the next day – these results skew the median for rain after a dry St Swithin’s to just 2 days!

Another interesting observation is that the 40-day period that followed a dry St Swithin’s is on average 13% WETTER than if it rained on July 15th.

So what does this mean for the rest of July and the summer? Looking back at other years that have seen a mostly dry and warm pattern in the run up to St Swithin’s Day we should see a continuation of frequently dry, warm and sunny conditions, interspersed with rainy days and, perhaps, thundery breakdowns. A typical British summer!

Putting superstition and singularities aside current weather models back this up.

St Swithun's reputation as a weather saint is said to have arisen from the translation of his body from a lowly grave to its golden shrine within Winchester cathedral, having been delayed by incessant rain for 40 days
St Swithin’s reputation as a weather saint is said to have arisen from the translation of his body from a lowly grave to its golden shrine within Winchester cathedral, having been delayed by incessant rain for 40 days

St Swithin was born around 800AD and died on July 2, 862, at Winchester, Hampshire. According to historians he was fond of building churches in places where there were none. St Swithin, who was bishop of Winchester, was buried in the churchyard of the Old Minster at Winchester, where passers by might tread on his grave and where the rain from the eaves might fall on it.

His reputation as a weather saint is said to have arisen from the translation of his body from this lowly grave to its golden shrine within the cathedral, having been delayed by incessant rain for 40 days.

The basis of the St Swithin’s saying follows the fact that by July 15th summer weather patterns are already well established and tend to persist through the coming weeks.

In meterological terms the position of the frontal zone around the end of June to early July, indicated by the position of the jet stream, determines the general weather patterns (hot, cold, dry, wet) for the rest of the summer. Like a little stream in its bed, the frontal zone tends to ‘dig in’ shortly after the summer solstice.

As the path of our weather systems is controlled by the jet stream, a more southerly location of the frontal zone – as happened last year – is likely to bring unsettled, wet and cool weather. On the other hand, a frontal zone shifted further to the north – as is happening this year – will help the Azores high to build over western Europe, thus bringing dry and pleasant weather to the UK.

Other western European countries also have similar St Swithin’s day sayings – that follow the principle rule. In France they say ‘Quand il pleut a la Saint Gervais Il pleut quarante jours apres’ – If it rains on St. Gervais’ day (July 19th), it will rain for fourty days afterward.
In Germany the Siebenschlaefer or seven sleepers day (July 7th, after the Gregorian calendar) refers to the weather patterns of the following seven weeks.

How accurate is Wanstead weather station?

The hottest July day on record was recorded at Heathrow airport on Wednesday 1st. The 36.7C recorded between 1500 and 1530 exceeded the previous record of 36.5C set at the Royal Horticultural Garden at Wisley, Surrey, in 2006.

The meteo is sited on the Aldersbrook Estate and uploads data to the web every 10 minutes, 24 hours a day
The meteo is sited on the Aldersbrook Estate and uploads data to the web every 10 minutes, 24 hours a day

I recorded 36.1C in Wanstead, a reading that exceeded the previous July record of 35.9C set in 1868 – indeed it was the fourth highest temperature this area has seen since local records began in 1848.

Already, however, questions have arisen over the validity of the Heathrow value mainly because the official measurement far exceeded that of Northolt, an airfield and the closest official station, which recorded 35.7C, a full degree cooler.

I’ve always been a bit sceptical on the validity of airport readings – there’s a lot more concrete at Heathrow than Northolt and obviously far more jet engines. The previous July record at Wisley is surely far more representative of standard conditions? I fear that with a new runway Heathrow will only get hotter and, perhaps, a review of the official MetO station should be taken.

I’m often asked why my own station is not used for official readings. The simple answer is that, being in a suburban garden, it is too sheltered to qualify for the open exposure that the Met Office demands.

But, apart from the exposure, everything is as representative as possible to conditions set by the Met Office. When readings differ it is simply because the character of the area is warmer or colder than official stations, the closest of which is St James’s Park.

maxima
Maxima for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness
minima
Minima for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness

To try to quantify this I’ve had a look at all the official stations around Greater London throughout June. The results show that readings from Wanstead are remarkably similar to other stations.

I first had a look at maxima which revealed that Wanstead is 0.3C warmer than Heathrow and 0.6C warmer than St James’s Park.

mean
Mean for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness
rain
Rainfall for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness

Minima, on the other hand, revealed that Wanstead was 0.5C cooler than Heathrow and 0.9C cooler than St James’s Park – a stark illustration of how much warmer inner London is than the suburbs.

This obviously had a bearing on the mean temperatures of the region, Wanstead being 1.1C cooler than Heathrow and 1.2C cooler than St James’s Park.

In terms of rainfall Wanstead was wettest, but only by 4mm.

So, all in all, the weather station at Wanstead is a pretty good measure of our local climate, as close as possible to what official conditions for measurement of climate demand.

I am currently in the process of trying to find a site local to the area that will fulfil Met Office conditions but it is a long, drawn-out process that will take time to organise.

Maxima for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James's Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness
Maxima for stations near Wanstead
SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness
Minima for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James's Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness
Minima for stations near Wanstead
SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness
Mean for stations near Wanstead SJP: St James's Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness
Mean for stations near Wanstead
SJP: St James’s Park, LHR: Heathrow, NTH: Northolt, KEN: Kenley, WAN: Wanstead, GRV: Gravesend, SHO: Shoeburyness

Overnight thunderstorms of July 4th 2015

If you like thunderstorms Wanstead seems to be leading something of a charmed life these past couple of years.

The storm at 23:43
The storm at 23:43

Two years ago I wrote a blog asking what had happened to decent summer thunderstorms that were so common during my youth in the 1980s. Last night was the fourth time Wanstead has experienced a really good light show, complete with multiple lightning strikes and Hammer Horror-esque thunderclaps. The first storm passed over at 23:43, delivering 3.7mm rain at a rate of 20mm/hr. Another followed shortly after at 23:58, a pressure trace revealed a 1mb fall as the storm passed through. Nothing special as I have seen a 6mb drop in similar circumstances. By this time the sky was alive with lightning – yet again I failed to capture any lightning bolt but did manage to photograph my garden at the moment night became day – the world’s most powerful flashgun!

The radar picture of the storm at 23:58
The radar picture of the storm at 23:58
What would you give for a flashgun this powerful? The storm at its peak at 00:22
What would you give for a flashgun this powerful? The storm at its peak at 00:22

At 00:19pm occurred the brightest flash of lightning almost instantly followed by a very loud crack of thunder, the kind you hear on those Hammer Horror films with Peter Cushing. Looking at the rainfall of weather stations around the south-east it appears that Wanstead was in the thick of the action, clocking up 20.1mm of rain and second only to Bedford. The amount represents 47% of what normally falls in an average July. As always in these situations some places get a deluge while others remain almost dry.

There was 112,833 lightning strikes across UK & Ireland between 9pm and 9am on July 4th Image courtesy of Blitzortung
There was 112,833 lightning strikes across UK & Ireland between 9pm and 9am on July 4th
Image courtesy of Blitzortung

Looking further afield around London an observer in Blackheath reported an hour to 90 minutes of ‘roaringly good storminess’ that brought a house party to an abrupt end. He counted 15 flashes of lightning a minute, lots of CC but a few CGs too, including one close as the storm kicked off.

Elsewhere an observer in Highams Park reported 30 flashes per minute. In Dorset another observer 50mm of rain, most of which fell in an hour. The storm that tracked over the Salisbury region had what seemed like 3x the lightning of the storms in the SE corner.

Forecasting of the event was handled better by some agencies than others. For location accuracy the MeteoGroup discussion had an edge over the Met Office.

The Trappes (Paris) ‘loaded gun’ ascent for July 3 can be found here – warm / dry layers between 900 and 800 hPa and ~2000 J/kg of CAPE, with high CAPE values expanding aerially as the trough neared. Approach of the trough caused cooling aloft – not sufficient for the capping inversion to break around Paris itself but farther west and north.

Lightning streamers were visible moments before each thunderbolt. These come out of the ground to meet the main bolt - a sure sign that Wanstead was right underneath a cell
Lightning streamers were visible moments before each thunderbolt. These come out of the ground to meet the main bolt – a sure sign that Wanstead was right underneath a cell
A pressure trace at 11am on July 4th shows the peaks and troughs during the storm
A pressure trace at 11am on July 4th shows the peaks and troughs during the storm
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This table shows the most notable thunderstorms that have passed over Wanstead during the past two years

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June 2015: a little above average, very dry

June finished hot in complete contrast to the opening few days which were a continuation of a disappointing May.station

There were six occasions when the maximum exceeded 25C – the highest being 30.8C on 30th, the warmest June day for four years.

Mean temperature for the month was 16.9C, 0.8C above the 1981-2010 mean. Rainfall of 17.5mm was 34% of average – the last three Junes have been notably dry.

There were 189.5 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is 106% of what we can expect to see during an average June. The wettest day occurred on the 20th with 11.1mm. There were two days of thunder recorded.

So what has July got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (July 1st) suggest a battleground between Atlantic cooler air and hot continental air, a common feature at this time of year. The persistent heat on the continent looks like it will waft back and forth across the south-east – creating the risk of thundery downpours as it meets resistance from successive cold fronts.

Just 17.5mm of rain fell in June - 34% of average
Just 17.5mm of rain fell in June – 34% of average

The model output suggests the Atlantic air will eventually win through, allowing more changeable conditions in a week’s time. There is also a signal that high pressure will re-establish with a return to fine and very warm weather. As things stand the models remain finely balanced.

In contrast to the models my long range method suggests overwhelmingly that we are in for a warm July, up to 1.7C above average, at 60% probability

The next highest chance is for rather warm at 40% probability. If you add the probabilities together the chance of a rather warm to warm July can be put at 100% – perhaps a repeat of last year’s and 2013’s classic July is about to unfold?

Rainfall is looking below average, at 60% probability. There’s obviously a risk here that a couple of direct hits from thunderstorms would see the monthly total exceeded. I don’t have enough data to estimate sunshine but I would guess average to slightly above.

My June outlook was only good in that it ruled out any chance of a very warm month – the final mean was rather higher than I thought. I was also out with the very low rainfall – the signal was for something average. Sunshine was broadly average as I’d estimated

The Heronry Pond in Wanstead Park is suffering low water levels again
The Heronry Pond in Wanstead Park is suffering from low water levels again

Full stats for the month here: http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

Here follows the full weather diary for June…

1st Sunny, bright start quickly turned cloudy with intermittent drizzle through the day. Turned windy at 6pm and was really blowing around midnight.
2nd Drizzle in the wind at obs time and very windy, wind only decreasing by evening. A dreadful day though warm.
3rd Sunny start though cloud gradually increased. Feeling humid and summery at last.
4th Sunny start with cloud dotted with alto cumulus and cirrus. Rain between 5am and 6am – though storms passed to our west and east.
5th Bright start after earlier rain – the thunderstorms seemed to pass to our west and east. Very humid and felt oppresive in the morning.
6th Sunny start with cloud bubbling up. Much cooler and fresher feel. Lots of long sunny spells.
7th Sunny, gin clear start. Just a few fair weather cumulus all day. Gorgeous.
8th Bright start though alto cumulus shaded early sun. Variable cumulus after that – feeling chilly.
9th Cloudy and brisk wind from NE. Feeling chilly.
10th Bright start with sunny intervals throughout the day.
11th Sunny start with few cirrus, sky then completely cleared.
12th Sunny start though cloud bubbled up through the day – felt very close at sports day. Distant thunder heard at 8pm with light rain – much less than was threatened.
13th Cloudy start, mostly calm, still and dull – a real nothing day though some late brightness after 2pm pushed up the temperature briefly. Mild overnight with some light drizzle before obs time.
14th Drizzle in the wind up until 11pm and falling temp. Then a brief sunny interlude before it was cloudy again.
15th Cloudy start then briefly clearing before, at 1pm, more cloud appeared. Clear overnight allowing temp to fall until 4.10am but clouding over by morning – bright warm sunshine at 9am.
16th Sunny start but very cloudy at times. This continued all day – though the night was cloudier hence warmer.
17th Sunny start but with lots of cloud around.
18th Lots of long suuny spells but cooler than yesterday.
19th Cloudy up until 11.30pm and cooler. Broke to sunny spells and much warmer at 2pm.
20th Bright start though warm from started pushing through just before 1pm. Some sunny breaks but rain pushed in. Was in Cheltenham but Woodford Wells reported thunder:  Between 1650and 1730 12mm fell followed by a decreasing amount of 2.4mm up to 1814  all BST Two thunder claps at 1715 and 1728.
21st In Cheltenham it was a mostly cloudy day though with more sunny intervals after midday. Rain spread in just before midnight with more in the early hours.
22nd Cloudy start though with brief sunny break at 10am. Some drizzle 11.15am then drier with sunny intervals.
23rd Bright start. Cloud broke to give warm sunny spells .
24th Sunny periods after a rather cloudy start. Felt very warm in the sun during walk around London with Neil and family.
25th Sunny start though hazy cloud developed from 10.30am, rather obscuring the sun at times, though it was bright all day. 26th Warm till late into the evening – still 18C at 11pm.
26th Bright start though cloudy, broke to sunny spells and felt warmer than forecast.
27th Sunny start though with cloudier spells all through the day. A very warm evening.
28th Sunny start quickly became cloudy with rain turning up at noon during early lunch. This later cleared to sunny spells and a pleasant afternoon.
29th Sunny start though with high cloud obscuring the sun at times.
30th Sunny, gin clear all day. only ‘cloud’ was distant grass fire.

The 30th was wall-to-wall sunshine until late in the evening when alto-cumulus and cumulus were observed
The 30th was wall-to-wall sunshine until late in the evening when alto-cumulus and cumulus were observed

Premier league of heatwaves (1850-2025)

The media are always keen to say ‘a heatwave is on the way’ when it is more likely to just be a short spell of fine weather with temperatures a few degrees above average.

The Daily Express has flagged up ridiculous weather stories so often that it is now beyond parody
The Daily Express, which usually goes over-the-top when there is any sign of heat on the horizon, has been relatively quiet of late

Forecasts of 30C and above see editors up and down the land reaching for their stock pics of office workers and kids enjoying ice creams in parks.

‘Hotter than the Costas’ and other hackeneyed headlines are wheeled out as photos of scantily-clad women frolicking in the sea at Brighton illustrate this amazing fact – the more ubiquitous shirtless lorry drivers on the capital’s roads never seem to make the final editions.

So how do you quantify a heatwave? Even in an average year the UK normally sees at least one spell of very warm weather that can often feel much warmer than it actually is.

Looking at data for the London area stretching back to the early 1800s there has been plenty of hot spells, including the summer of 1808 where birds reportedly ‘dropped out of the sky’ from heat exhaustion.

The term ‘heatwave’ does not appear in any publication in the British Newspaper Archive until 1867. The Manchester Courier and Lancashire General Advertiser on May 11th 1867 features a letter from Mr R.H. Allnatt. Writing from the British Hotel, Jersey, he states that “…the atmosphere became most oppressive. A heat-wave seems to have passed over the island, and from noon till sunset the thermometer stood in shade at 90 deg.”

The World Meteorological Organization’s description of a heatwave is “when the daily maximum temperature on more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5°C, the normal period being 1961-1990″. Though it has no official definition the UK Met Office, working with the Department of Health, provides a ‘Heat-Health Watch System’ for England which is triggered when a threshold temperature in the South East is  31°C by day and 16°C overnight for at least two consecutive days.

A mean daily temperature of 23.5°C or higher has been achieved in this area on 199 days since 1852. To qualify for the Met Office’s Heat-Health Watch System the list, which goes back 163 years, narrows. However, to make my job easier, I have narrowed the list further to 3 consecutive days where the mean has been 23.5°C or higher. Though I loathe really hot weather in my experience I can put up with it for a couple of days. It is only when it gets to the third day of hot, sleepless nights that it starts becoming unbearable.

The 500mb renanalysis chart of the heatwave of August 1876
The 500mb renanalysis chart of the heatwave of August 1876

The first heatwave that fits my parameters, and ranks 7th in the heatwave premier league, began on August 13th 1876. Obviously in those days news would have taken a while to filter through. On the front page but tucked away at the bottom of the far right column of Reynolds’s Newspaper on August 20th a report talked on “excessive heat in Norfolk”:

“The weather has been intensely hot in Norfolk, and two fatal cases of sunstroke are reported from Blofield. A similar casualty occurred at Thorndon. A spark from a Great Eastern Railway engine has fired a barley field near Wherstead, Suffolk, in consequence of the extreme drought. The damage done is estimated at £300.”

A report on the “Glorious Twelfth” in the London Daily News on Monday 14th says:

“Not a cloud obscured the burning rays of the sun, and in the middle hours of the day moving about on the moor was not unattended with danger.” The weather was the complete opposite of the previous two years where “rain fell so continuously that only the keenest of the keen ventured abroad”.

500mb reanalysis of the 1893 heatwave
500mb reanalysis of the 1893 heatwave

It would be another 26 years before Greenwich would see another heatwave of the same magnitude. Tucked away on page 16 of Lloyd’s Weekly Newspaper on Sunday 20th August 1893 a national round-up column spoke of ‘The Excessive Heat’ of the past week of that heatwave which ranks 11th in the league of heatwaves.

“A farmer, named Calvert, of Barlow, died of sunstroke on Tuesday whilst engaged in harvest work. A man named George Wight fell down in the street at Birmingham on Tuesday, and was taken to the hospital, where it was stated that he was suffering from sunstroke. The intense heat had a remarkable effect on the temperature of the sea in the Channel. A Sandwich correspondent said the water was the warmest it had been for 25 years.”

Several cases of sunstroke were recorded among soldiers from Plymouth Garrison. A regiment from West Riding were ordered off parade while some regiments took the unprecedented step of parading in shirtsleeves. An engine-driver, when running the express into Stoke station, became seriously ill and died directly after his admission to hospital. His death is attributed to the intense heat. Harvesters in Ashford, Kent, also downed tools after a fatality and several cases of sunstroke.

National newspapers of the day took a broader view of proceedings. The Daily Telegraph‘s assumption on the cause of the heatwave and prognosis of conditions was actually better than it is today.

“Not more than twice or thrice in the present century probably has heat as intense and persistent as that now registered been experienced in England. Since Saturday, when announced the formation of an anticyclone over the British islands, there has been a nearly constant and slowly progressive increase of temperature, until yesterday the maximum thermometric reading of the year so far was attained, 90 degrees in the shade being recorded at the Meteorological Office, Westminster.”

The Times on the same day remarked on how people were dealing with the intense heat:

“Such is the force of habit that the social mechanism still keeps working, though nobody really cares for anything except the heat. In the shops, in the Stock Exchange, even in Parliament, people meet and go through the form of doing business, but their langour tells its own story — that the sun has been too much for them.”

The paper describes a “great thunderstorm that had kept everyone in the south of England awake a week earlier” that was assumed to have been the end of a hot summer. But the heat built again.

“Sunday was one of the most exhausting days in human memory; and Tuesday and yesterday, at all events in London, were days to be remembered and quoted. Nothing more like a Italian scirocco has ever been felt here than the west wind which blew at midday yesterday. Very scientific thermometers, indeed, pretend that the heat was nothing exceptional, but the skin, the brain, and the temper of the average man told a different story.”

It would appear that the return of the heatwave took forecasters by surprise and the paper continues on with a familiar ‘why weren’t we warned’ tone:

“And the worst was that the forecast, to which our excellent Meteorological Office has taught us to look with so much confidence, promised quite other things. It spoke of weather unsettled, thundery, and showery later,” and in the north it promised ” westerly and varying breezes; changeable, showery, thundery, cooler. “What tricks were the barometers playing ? Was Ben Nevis having its little joke, or was the office itself suffering from sunstroke?”

On its front page on Saturday, August 19th, The Yorkshire Evening Post featured a prominent sketch of a City gent Picture courtesy of the British Newspaper Archive
On its front page on Saturday, August 19th, The Yorkshire Evening Post featured a prominent sketch of a City gent
Picture courtesy of the British Newspaper Archive

The Daily Chronicle turned its editorial attentions to the “alarming” effects the heat was having on peoples’ attire

“The social effects began to operate at an early stage at Westminster, on temper as well on habiliments. They have now penetrated that last refuge of conventional respectability, the City, where the chimney-pot de rigueur has been dethroned by the straw of comfort, and the waistcoat has actually disappeared before the coloured silk scarf.”

The paper reports of people falling ill with fever in the heat, possibly caused by water supply. While the Thames, thanks to reforms by the County Council, was not smelling Glaswegians close to the Clyde were not so fortunate, the river being “overpoweringly odorous all the summer”.

“We must grin and bear it, as may. We shall grumble when the temperature falls, pretty much as we are doing now. For, Macanlay somewhere says, man is never satisfied with what he has, but is always straining after what he has not. And this is particularly true of Britons and their weather.”

Little is written of the 17th ranked 1906 heatwave that ran from August 31st to September 2nd though a diary note on page 3 of the Portsmouth Evening News on Thursday 6th September said the effect of the heat proved decidedly detrimental to education in Portsmouth. It reports:

“Not that the attendance has fallen off to any appreciable extent as result of the very trying weather, but its effect has been very marked, nevertheless, as the youngsters have proved very heavy and slack, with the result that the lot has been decidedly trying.”

The glorious summer of 1911, surprisingly, did not produce a spell that would satisfy my heatwave criteria.

August 9th, 1911, saw the first incident of 100F (37.8C) being recorded in London. The record beat the previous high on 97F. The report also makes mention that many areas recorded at least 97F
August 9th, 1911, saw the first incident of 100F (37.8C) being recorded in London. The record beat the previous high on 97F. The report also makes mention that many areas recorded at least 97F

The season, which produced hot weather throughout July and August, is worthy of mention, however, because August 9th saw the first occasion 100°F was recorded in London. Considering the magnitude of this milestone the media of the day seemed reluctant to go overboard with the coverage, simply reporting the facts. The day after the hottest day ever the Dundee Evening Post had some advice on attire for hot weather, including a reported sighting of Keir Hardie in a “duck suit”.

By 1923, a heatwave that placed 14th, reports were going beyond records of temperature and heat-related deaths. On July 16th a reader of the Gloucester Citizen was bemoaning the fact that visitors to London were being subjected to “heatwave profiteering”.

Ice was in short supply and only available in restaurants and cafes and the price of fruit and salad had risen “beyond reason”. The author writes:

“A Fleet Street shop, for example, lemons have suddenly risen from a modest penny to a more formidable threepence, and the explanation is: “There has been an eruption at Etna, you know”. “To point out that the present stock of lemons was received long before Etna began to make its dangerous influences felt is merely to invite a shrug of the shoulders and gesture indicating “take it or leave it.”

The London Letter column in the Hull Daily Mail on Friday 13th July mentions MP’s braving the stifling heat to hear Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin’s statement on European policy, and also “London The Boil”.

1923 heatwave“The heat wave continues to keep in its fiery grip. It absolutely dominates the daily lives of our seven million population, whose habits are rapidly approximating to those much nearer the equator. Hyde Park ladies fashionably attired may be seen sitting under sunshades beneath the shadiest trees in their stockinged feet. Their shoes rest beside them on the parched grass.”

“In Fleet Street there has been a long queue, as nondescript as an old-time butter queue during the war ration period, outside a shop where ice cream wafers are sold at the rate of about two hundred a minute. Men are wearing white suits, waistcoats have vanished, straw hats are at a premium. Most of the licensed bars are doing little more than pussyfoot trade in long iced teetotal drinks. An actor appearing in So This is London, says that he gets home half-an-hour earlier nowadays. Though the theatre is quite well filled, the audience is too hot to applaud. So the show goes slick through.”

The column, written decades before the advent of air conditioned comfort became the norm, also gives advice on where to keep cool in the capital. Previous favourites had included the cold-storage warehouses along the riverside at Blackfriars Bridge, the Monument and Westminster’s “Byzantine” tower.

“I am quite certain the coolest place in London is in a boat under the stone bridge that spans the Serpentine. Scores of overheated Londoners seek these cool arches. There, if you can crush in, you may smoke a cigarette, in almost too chilly comfort, while London boils just outside.”

The Yorkshire Evening Post on Friday, August 29th 1930 Image courtesy of British Newspaper Library
The Yorkshire Evening Post on Friday, August 29th 1930
Image courtesy of British Newspaper Library

The heatwave of August 27th – 29th 1930, which ranks 15th, produced another interesting ‘London Letter’ column in the Portsmouth Evening News about too-hot cabs and heatwave profiteering: a greengrocer raising the price of lemons from 1d to 13d, despite there being crates available in storerooms!

This 'Sainsbury & Son' advert appeared on p7 of The Bucks Herald on Friday, August 19th, 1932
This ‘Sainsbury & Son’ advert appeared on p7 of The Bucks Herald on Friday, August 19th, 1932

Two years later and newspapers were reporting the ‘hottest day for a generation’. The heatwave of August 18th – 20th August 1932 saw the temperature reach 99°F (37.2°C). This heatwave ranks 9th.

“Tragedies attributable to the heatwave were reported from all parts the kingdom yesterday. From the provinces 14 heat deaths were notified. Three cases of suicide which the Paddington coroner said were attributable to the effects of the intense heat and ill health were subjects of inquests Paddington yesterday afternoon.”

The Leicester Chronicle reported cases of heat exhaustion and the curious sight of people carrying home butter in jugs while the 7.25pm and 7.30pm express trains from King’s Cross to the Western Highlands had shower baths installed in sleeping cars to help passengers cope with the heat.

The heatwave of August 6th – August 8th 1947, which ranks 18th, was sparsely reported save for the usual heat stroke casualty stories and the fact that Cheltenham recorded 11 hours of sunshine on one sweltering day.

By 1948 signs of a move away from straight reporting of heatwaves were beginning to appear. An Hour in the Heatwave, a report taken during the hot spell of July 28th – 30th, ranked 12th, was published in the Essex Newsman.

The reporter, Gilbert Saunders, gave a simple but highly readable account of people going about their daily life in the heat.

“In the stadium The other side of the river, where Chelmsford have their stadium, Ted Boxall, private builder, was getting on with a job that he started on Wednesday and hopes to finish by today. He is making a surround and small archway for the counter over which cups of tea are passed to directors and guests in the board room under the grandstand. Ted (who asked : “You’re not mistaking me for Mr. Rowe, are you?”) was surrounded with litter of Essex boarding and sawdust. He paused to wipe a hot brow, explained that he does “lots of odd jobs” for the club. Ted gets a hand from the players when its needed. Earlier this week he finished off two sets of concrete steps, one each side of the grandstand, so that fans will be able to get on the raised ground without having to scramble up the sides of a small mountain of ash and clinkers.”

An hour in the heatwave, published in the  Essex Newsman - Friday 30th July 1948
An hour in the heatwave, published in the Essex Newsman – Friday 30th July 1948

“On the Corner At London Road corner, his face red from the heat but bearing the everpresent grin, Special Constable Thorn clicked and swivelled his 6ft 3in and kept the traffic moving, all unaware that the next day’s Essex Chronicle was already printing a letter suggesting that his courtesy, service, and goodwill should be rewarded with the Freedom of Chelmsford.”

“In the Newspaper Office And inside the building of the Essex Chronicle, Norman White, bespectacled family man, sat down at the side of the roaring press and took a bite at some sandwiches. The first of seven editions was streaming out. “Ought to be pretty early tonight,” he shouted above the din. “With luck we should all be away between half-past nine and ten …… “

The Aberdeen Journal, in its edition published on Friday 30th July, reported on conditions in London and how the population was coping (or not!) with the heat:

“The metropolis last night was like a large restless household—with all the lights ablaze, doors and windows thrown open, the family fretful, and endless pots of tea brewing far into this morning.

aspro heatwave ad Yorkshire Post and Leeds Intelligencer - Wednesday 13 August 1947“Perhaps one in ten among the 8,000,000 of us slept after midnight. For the rest, we tossed and turned and saw out this heatwave night, when temperatures were never below 71 degrees, a variety of ways. About midnight I walked past the gaunt old Edwardian mansions in Kensington. With the exception the lights that burned from every window, the scene was reminiscent of the early days of the Blitz.

“Families trekked across the roadway in varying stages of undress to their little bits of ornamental gardens. With them went camp beds, bed linen, umbrellas, “in case,” the children, and the household pets, choose a cool open-air camping spot and feel wonderfully adventurous and spartan in the process.”

Yorkshire Evening Post - Thursday 14 August 1947
Yorkshire Evening Post – Thursday 14 August 1947

“At regular intervals the adolescent members of the squatting colonies were dispatched to the tea and coffee stalls on the corner, and perhaps for the first time in years these traders ran out of stocks. On the Kensington-Chelsea boundary, where life becomes noticeably less inhibited and on occasions less swish, a mixed group of young artists was sleeping on the pavement off Fulham Road.

“Round the next corner, where many theatrical and film stars live, several had slung hammocks on their meagre front lawns – one actually suspended between the bathroom windows of two adjacent houses. Midnight street wear for both sexes was cool if unconventional —silk pyjamas, bath robes, tennis shorts, and one in kilt and bathing costume top who could have gone straight into the arena at Lonach.”

The column goes on to describe the situation in the House of Commons where the heat had reached “almost Turkish bath intensity”.

“Some members were in natty tussore silk suitings, but this helped little, and it was many of their number who appealed to the Speaker to have more windows opened. The Speaker, panting like the rest of us, said they were all open. If they wanted more cool breezes from the Thames, members would have to smash the windows.”

More evidence of reportage became evident during the June 1952 heatwave which ranks 8th.

A report on life in the heatwave published on July 5th 1952 Image courtesy of the British Newspaper Archive
A report on life in the heatwave published on July 5th 1952
Image courtesy of the British Newspaper Archive

Peter Chambers, of the Evening Express, wrote:

“London is hot. It is going to get hotter. That merry mercury column is poking up into the eighties already. That’s what faces us at the height of a heatwave.

“Bus tyres sizzle on the melted tarmac in the streets. At office windows, the girls are pattering away at their typrewriters with damp, discouraged fingers.

“It’s a scorcher. Even the sparrows are panting.”

The reporter describes the scene at London Bridge at 9.30am: “Well, as I came over London Bridge with the 9.30 surge of sweltering suburbia, a bus conductor hopped off his traffic-jammed vehicle and grabbed a couple of ice chips off a Billingsgate lorry. One for him, one for the driver. “What I want, mate,” said the driver ungratefully, “is a ‘ole block of the freezin’ stuff – to sit on.” That is the male reaction to the heatwave.

“The female reaction is typified by the secretary in this office, who buzzes off to the ladies’ room every half-hour to atomise herself with eau de cologne. Ever since she read that fragrant publicity handout, which said “It’s not enough, girls, NOT to be hot and sticky, you’ve got to smell NICE-TO-BE-NEAR…”

The author takes a walk past Embankment and up to Trafalgar Square: “The girls are in topless frocks. Even the men have got their jackets off – a sight abhored further east, where the rigid convention of the City demands that you sweat it out in your dark worsted, regardless.”

At 1pm he finds foreigners feeding the pigeons by Nelson’s Columns and Londoners feeding themselves on bags of strawberries priced at 1/9. By 3pm he’d made it to the Serpentine Lido along with 3,000 other people. He describes at like “Margate on a Bank Holiday”.

The summer of 1959 was glorious but many cool nights saw the season fall short of my 23.5C threshold. It would be a long time before summers were nice again.

The top 6 of my league of heatwaves are all occupied by much more recent events, including 1976 and 1990, both of which are dealt with in the blog I wrote last year – 50 years of London heatwaves. The heatwave that topped them all, in terms of sheer intensity and produced the UK’s hottest day ever, happened in 2003.

I have vague memories of the weeks of sunshine in 1976 but the hot spells that stick in my mind the most are August 1990, when the UK temperature record was set in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, and August 2003 when an 8-day hot spell saw the all-time UK temperature record broken when 38.5C was reached at Brogdale, near Faversham, Kent.

In terms of length, heat and sunshine, therefore, 2003 comes out on top. Though many people will argue that 1976 is the more impressive summer that year produced two spells that satisfy my criteria, coming in second and fifth. The first heatwave saw temperatures soar above 31° C for six consecutive days from June 23. The start of the second, on July 3, saw Bjorn Borg win the first of five Wimbledon mens’ titles as he prevailed over Ilie Nastase in 35°C heat. The summer of 1995, which saw my driest-ever August with just 0.7mm of rainfall all month, comes in 3rd, with six days of mean temperatures of 23.5°C or higher.

Looking back through history it is not really surprising that 2003 comes out on top. While it was hot in London the heatwave across the Channel contributed to the death of over 70,000 people throughout Europe, France being the most affected.

A complete set of 500mb reanalysis charts have been uploaded and can be watched as a GIF movie

make animated gifs like this at MakeaGif

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* There were hot spells before 1852 but I have excluded these: Luke Howard’s maxima observations from Plaistow, Stratford and Tottenham were taken under non-standard conditions and may be on the high side. I have instead focused my investigation on data recorded at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich.

** For some reason the data during a couple of years in the 1950s was incomplete – to fill in these gaps I used official data gathered at Kew. The data is completed up to the present day using my own observations taken since 1988.

*** As already mentioned prior to these dates data is unreliable as conditions for collection were not strictly controlled. However, there are many records of extreme heat. On Sunday, August 1, 1868, the Gloucester Journal published a report on the “Heat of previous years” detailing an account of hot spells going back to 1806. “Mr. G. J. Symons gives a number of interesting particulars in reference the heat of previous seasons in this country. We abstract the following

  • 1806: Very hot in parts of June and July. At Plaistow the temperature was 95 degrees on June 10th, and 90 degrees or upwards on three days.
  • 1808: Very hot from July 12th to 19th. On the 12th a thermometer in perfect shade in a window in St James’s Park was 81.5 degrees at 3pm, and on the 13th at the same hour, 94 degrees. On the same day four men and seven women were killed by sunstroke in various parts of the Midland counties, and numerous coach and other horses were also killed. On the 15th a very violent and destructive thunderstorm in Gloucestershire, Monmouthshire, and surrounding counties.
  • 1818:July a very hot month. At Tottenham on the 24th Luke Howard registered 93 degrees at Somerset House on the same day it was 89 degrees, and in the Strand 87 degrees at noon. The mean temperature of that day at Greenwich was 79.2 degrees, which was higher than any other day between 1814 and 1863. The following paragraph appeared in the Gentleman’s Magazine for September, 1818: “It is worthy of remark that the heat of the present summer has been universal. From the north to the south of Europe the heat has been greater and more lasting than for 40 years On July 24th the thermometer here (where!) was 98 degrees, which had never been reached except on July 16th, 1793. At Paris July 31st it was 93 degrees and at Philadelphia 100 degrees.” From 19th to 21st violent thunderstorms in the west of England.
  • 1825: July remarkable, if not unique, in its constant and excessive temperature. At Stratford Luke Howard registered 90 degrees or upwards on seven days, the highest being 97 degrees on the 18th.
  • 1826: The heat was very great. In May the thermometer reached 76 degrees, June 92, July 89, August 85. Two men were killed by sunstroke near London. The fields were as brown as the roads. After two months’ drought the rivulets were gone, and many of the wells dry. The hay crop was deficient from long drought. Country is parched, and corn in some places, though only a few inches above ground, was shooting into ear. Several hills and moors caught fire. In Worcestershire the excessive heat and drought almost wholly destroyed the pasturage, and trees were lopped to feed the cattle.
  • 1846: July 5 was very hot, 93.3 degrees being registered at Greenwich, and 94 degrees at Clapham (94 degrees has been recorded there again in the only other instance at that station.
  • 1852: July of this wet year was remarkably hot, the mean monthly temperature (66.6 degrees) having only been exceeded by July 1778 when it was 67 degrees; and July 1859 when it was 68.1 degrees. Tho extreme heat, however, was only 90.3 degrees at Greenwich.
  • 1857: On June 28, 92.7 deg. was recorded at Greenwich.
  • 1858: June was a very hot day, 94.5 degrees being reached at Greenwich.
  • 1859: Temperatures of 92, 92.5, and 93.0 degrees were recorded at Greenwich.”

Waterloo, Wellington, Wellesley, Wanstead

The Battle of Waterloo and Wanstead are not often mentioned in the same sentence. However, with the marking of the 200th anniversary I have been noticing more and more reminders of the Duke around the area’s roads.

The Dukes Head on Wood Street, Walthamstow, is another reminded of Wellington who was placed 15th in the BBC's 100 Greatest Britons
The Dukes Head on Wood Street, Walthamstow, is another reminded of Wellington who was placed 15th in the BBC’s 100 Greatest Britons

As well as Wellington Road we have Wellesley Road which, I would imagine, planners named in honour of Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington, rather than his feckless nephew, William Pole Tylney Long-Wellesley, who frittered away the fortune of his wife, Catherine Tylney-Long, heiress to an estate that included Wanstead House.

It is noted that Long-Wellesley celebrated his uncle’s victory with a fair in the grounds of Wanstead House. Though the park was later left devastated by the clearance of thousands of trees, sold to help clear Long-Wellesley’s debts, it is interesting that a line of oaks, estimated to be 200 years’ old this year, stand in a line close to The Temple. I wonder if these were planted to mark Wellington’s victory?

Wellington, who was recently voted the 15th Greatest Briton in the BBC poll, must have enjoyed Churchillian popularity following the victory over Napolean. But, according to many historians, the battle was a close-run thing – some historians have said that heavy rain on the eve of the battle helped Wellington’s defensive battle policy against Napolean’s aggressive tactics.

The synoptic chart for 18 June 1815 shows that a low and fronts havecleared the southern Belgian region leaving drier and fresher conditions over the battlefield Image courtesy of Weather, the Royal Meteorological Society magazine and Wiley
The synoptic chart for 18 June 1815 shows that a low and fronts havecleared the southern Belgian region leaving drier and fresher conditions over the battlefield
Image courtesy of Weather, the Royal Meteorological Society magazine and Wiley

Scientists have been able to map the weather conditions of the battle that was taking place 200 miles to Wanstead’s south-east. Weather conditions in Wanstead for the day, according to Luke Howard were: “Maximum: 74F, minimum: 51F, hygrometer 52%, wind: SW, rain in the night,  rather cloudy.”

He makes a comment about a solar observation – the figure 28 has been seen on the surface of the sun: “There is now on the sun’s disk the most extraordinary configuration of macula or spots that ever was seen. They present, when viewed through an astronomical or inverting telescope, the exact resemblance of the figures 28. If viewed through an erect telescope they will of course appear inverted but equally distinct; the 2 in particular is perfectly formed.”

A full scientific explanation of the Battle of Waterloo can be found on the following link

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/wea.246.04/pdf

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Hot and bothered by London heat escalator

mean temp 23.5
Total days where the mean temp was 23.5C or higher

There are 2.5 times as many hot days during summer in London as there were 100 years ago – that’s the result I have found while looking at data for Greenwich going back to 1851.

Very hot conditions, where the mean daily temperature is 23.5°C or higher, as defined by the Met Office’s Heat-Health Watch System, have been achieved in this area on 199 days since 1852.

The Met Office, and other meteorological agencies, use 30-year averages to smooth any spikes of hot and cold years – so the result, in my view, is quite remarkable – even though it is just one dataset.

Looking at the data overall it can be seen that while average maxima has decreased by 1.6°C since 1881-1910, minima has increased by 2.1°C.

new max min 30 yr
30-year hot day max / min average since 1881

The decreased maxima is possibly explained by the fact that the sun shines, on average, just over an hour less than it did a century ago. The reason for this could be because of increased air pollution and aircraft contrails?

The increased minima, on the other hand, could be being caused by the fact that vast tracts of suburban front and back gardens are now paved over – along with the loss of the shade of many trees. This, and increased road and house building, acts as a huge radiator, keeping nights warmer than they would have been a century ago.

Experts would question the hybrid nature of my dataset, even though my observing sites are very close to those of Greenwich. It is a shame that many of the first climatological stations, such as Camden Square set up in the early 19th century by George Symons, are not still around as they would now offer an unquestionable insight into just how much London’s climate has warmed.

Sunshine hours have decreased since the 19th century
Sunshine hours have decreased since the 19th century

You could argue that there is no doubt that the warming in these data is man made though, perhaps, paved gardens keeping summer nights warmer would be a lot easier and cheaper to solve than fulfilling the carbon capture policies of many of the world’s governments. But that is an argument for another post.

For now, as the capital’s population continues to increase, it is vitally important that planners get the next generation of property developments right to keep the population cool when a heatwave strikes. Extreme heat severely affects public health, not least the suicide rate – a study has shown that above 18°C, each 1°C increase in mean temperature has associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Planners cannot just leave it to energy-hungry air conditioning to bring relief – developments should incorporate plenty of shade and natural cooling in their designs to help counteract the health impacts of future heatwaves.

* There were hot spells before the period in this post but I have excluded these: Luke Howard’s maxima observations from Plaistow, Stratford and Tottenham were taken under non-standard conditions and may be on the high side.

** I have focused my investigation on data recorded at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich. For some reason the data during a couple of years in the 1950s was incomplete – to fill in these gaps I used official data gathered at Kew. The data is completed up to the present day using my own observations taken since 1988.

Summer forecast 2015: average

This summer is looking an average one. Before you write it off, however, average summers do come with decent spells of warmth and sunshine. But I think the old saying that an English summer consists of three fine days and a thunderstorm will be used more than once this year…impending

To reach my conclusion on this summer I have used pattern matching of meteorological data from this area for March, April and May stretching back to 1799.

The dry and sunny weather of March and April was tempered by a very average May. The mean for the spring season was 10.5C with 75.8mm of rain and 511 hours of sunshine.

If you take into account all years that were within +/- 10 per cent of these figures, for rainfall and then mean temperature, you get the following table.

The ‘best fit’ years were revealed as 1844, 1870, 1880, 1943, 1995, and 2009. As an average this summer could be expressed as: Mean: 17.4C (about average) Rainfall: 127.3mm (below average) Sunshine: 567hrs (about average)

spurOr, expressed in probabilities, I concluded the following:

Very Warm ( above 20.4) 0%

Warm (19.4 – 20.3) 0%

Rather warm (18.4-19.3) 17%

Average (16.9C – 18.3C) 50%

Rather Cool (15.9 – 16.8) 33%

Cool (14.9 – 15.8) 0%

Very cool (below 14.8C) 0%

Very Wet ( 3.8 x average) 0%

Wet (2.9  x average) 0%

Rather wet (1.9 x average) 0%

Average 50%

Rather dry (0.7 x average) 33%

Dry (0.5x average) 17%

Very dry (0.25 x average) 0%

So from the above you could deduce that the next three months will be average to rather cool, with average to slightly below average rainfall. Sunshine average.

Trying to predict daily detail over the next 3 months is impossible, but looking at the ‘best fit’ years mentioned above it is probable that the opening 10 days of June will be among the coolest of the summer. Screen Shot 2015-06-03 at 03.15.12

Of interest to most will be when are the hot spells most likely to happen. Considering the median of all rain days a dry spell happened without fail between the dates of June 28th – June 30th and August 15th – August 19th; both these spells likely ending with thundery breakdowns. Another date to bear in mind for a possible two-day fine spell is July 24th-25th.

So, all-in-all, a mixed bag. Looking at the ‘best-fit’ years, however, it is worthwhile noting that although the overall picture looks average there exists the record-breaking dry August of 1995 and the notably wet and thundery July of 1880.

My summer forecast last year was broadly correct. How this one will fair obviously only time will tell. One could argue that what I’m forecasting is just climatology which has a good chance of being correct should no external influences, such as a huge eruption on Mount Etna, have a bearing on the end result.

* Taking into account the fact that temperatures in London are up to 0.66C warmer than they were 100 years ago I have added 0.66C to mean temperatures before 1915.

** Obviously, in the event of a series of direct hits from thunderstorms, my rainfall estimate could be hopelessly short – a symptom of abundant solar energy at this time of year which creates a ‘noisy’ atmosphere compared with winter.

*** The 1981-2010 average mean for summer in this region is 17.6C, with 144.9mm of rain and 564 hours of sunshine