Climate Change, cold spell, History, newspaper reporting of weather

Climate change: Forever a pressing issue

October 15, 2015 wansteadmeteo 1 Comment

Every so often the UK experiences severe weather which shocks a population that is very used to our mostly benign climate.

Newspapers and media agencies, in an age where a culprit must be found to blame, are quick to connect every gale, flood and snowstorm with climate change. To say it is just ‘weather’ doesn’t compute with the average news editor.

falkirk herald — The year 1868 saw months of extreme weather that led newspapers on a mild and rain-sodden Christmas Eve to first ask the question: ‘Is our climate changing?’

A look back through archives from the 19th century reveal that this is not a new phenomenon. Though extreme weather events, including the heatwave of 1808 and widespread floods of 1811 and 1828, were always well documented, it wasn’t until the advent of reliable meteorological readings in the mid 1800s that scientists could analyse what was happening to the atmosphere with any authority. This, coupled with an explosion in literacy rates and the British fascination with the weather, helped build an appetite for news stories that went beyond covering each gale, flood and blizzard.

The year 1868 saw months of extreme weather that led newspapers on a mild and rain-sodden Christmas Eve to first ask the question: ‘Is our climate changing?’ The year had been the warmest for 34 years. The CET mean for 1868 was 10.4C, a figure nearly 1.3C above the 1831-1860 average. To put that into perspective 2014 was only 1C above the 1981-2010 average.

A review of weather in 1868 in the Falkirk Herald said the year had started very wet – a farming diary kept in Connaught, Co Mayo, said that January was so wet it was impossible to plough the land. The very wet weather lasted until the last week of March. In the Armagh record, all three months had well-above average rainfall, with the three-month total of 363 mm representing around 180 per cent of the long-term average.

By contrast the summer of 1868 was very hot and dry, with some of the highest temperatures ever recorded for the second half of July occurring in this year. There was a remarkable spell of hot days, with temperatures over 30C in England. For the south-east specifically, a maximum temperature above 32C was recorded in each of the months from May to September, and in July, the temperature exceeded 32C on 9 days. It was regarded for many years, until 1976 at least, as the longest (because of a lack of rainfall) and hottest in the instrumental record for England.

Although not accepted under modern methods, because of problems of comparison between Glaisher stands and Stevenson screens, the maximum temperature recorded on July 22nd, 1868 at Tonbridge, Kent, is still remarkable: 100.6F (38.1C). It is thought that this value, when compared with a standard Stevenson screen, is about 1.5C or 2C too high.

The subsequent ‘standard’ winter (December, January and February) became the warmest winter in the CET series which began in 1659, a record that still stands today.

The mild temperatures suggest a highly zonal, westerly pattern held sway from late November 1868 until at least February 1869. Snow was scarce in 1868 – with the only heavy falls on March 3rd and 8th and November restricted to northern England and Scotland.

Gilbert White, in his journal Natural History of Selbourne, tells of a visit to London in January 1776 when the metropolis was completely embedded in snow. He says that snow remained on houses in the City for 26 days - these days we're lucky if we see snow fall at all in the centre — Gilbert White, in his journal Natural History of Selbourne, tells of a visit to London in January 1776 when the metropolis was completely embedded in snow. He says that snow remained on houses in the City for 26 days – these days it is unusual for any snow to fall in the centre

The Falkirk Herald goes on to point out that winters, for the past 25 years, were mostly mild and wet – any bitter spells were short-lived. The piece cites Gilbert White’s Natural History of Selbourne which tells of a scene in January 1776 when “narrow roads were filled with snow to the tops of the hedges”, stopping road wagons and coaches in their tracks. White, regarded as England’s first ecologist, remarks that on a visit to London on the 22nd the metropolis was completely embedded in snow. A frost on the 27th lasted four days and was so intense that the Thames froze sufficiently enough for crowds to run about on the ice. More tellingly the snow remained on houses in the City for 26 days – these days we’re lucky if we see snow fall at all in the centre.

The paper professes that an increased occurrence of gales in mild winters were preferable to the ‘wave of death’ that accompanies bitter winters:

To the strong and hearty the frosts and snows of a bitter winter may seem genial and invigorating ; but they bring death with them to the weak, the ailing, and the aged.

It had been nine years since Charles Darwin published On the Origin of Species and many people were starting to turn away from the popular theory that many weather disasters were the work of God.

top 10 warmest and coldest years — **Nine out of ten of the warmest years have occurred since 1989**

Less than 5 years later the question ‘Has our Climate Changed?’ was being asked again. An article in the Fife Herald on January 30th, 1873, reported that winters were milder and that summers were colder – less frost and snow and much more rain. The month had been mild, nearly 2C above the 1841-70 mean, but the rain was more notable: 80mm, 136% of the EWP average. The wet January was a continuation of the previous 12 months which had been the wettest on record: 1284.9mm, a record in the EWP series that remains to this day. There has been a wetter 12 month period just once – April 2000 to March 2001.

The wet conditions extended across Ireland too; in the Armagh record, the 12 months from February 1872 to January 1873 saw 1251 mm of rain fall, which represents about 150 per cent of the long term average for this station. A farming diary in Connaught, Co Mayo, stated that the persistent wet weather caused considerable distress through loss of harvests and difficulty of working the land.

By the time the question: “Is our climate changing?” was asked again, 16 years later, the climate had turned much colder with the return of snowy winters. Snow fell on 16 days in February 1889 – a storm on the 10th and 11th dumped 20-30cm of snow widely across England. Days later the Hull Daily Mail reported a statement by Professor Cleveland Abbe which said that the climate of the earth had not changed in 2,000 years.

The comments of Professor Abbe, today considered the father of the US National Weather Service, were drawn from a report in the US magazine, The Forum, and referred to temperature, rainfall, early and late frosts, freezing of rivers, periods of cold winters and hot summers, the opening of navigation and the temperature of the earth. He said:

The study of each and all of these phenomena has failed to establish that there has been any sensible change in the climate at any point of the earth’s surface during the past 2,000 years.

It is not clear if Professor Abbe’s words were taken out of context but it is interesting that such a well-respected scientist had the confidence to make such a statement.

Top 10 wettest and driest years — **Rainfall shows a much more even spread of records through the years than temperature**

The year 1888, part of a string of colder than average years that followed the huge Krakatoa volcanic eruption in Indonesia in 1883, had seen other extreme events. In July ice is reported to have disrupted the fishing fleets around the Faroe Islands, implying cold conditions at these latitudes, probably extending to at least the Shetland Isles. It was a notably cold summer; a mean of 13.7C puts it just outside the ‘Top 10’ of coldest summers in the CET series. In London the summer was 1.8C cooler than average and rainfall was 139 per cent of normal for that period. It was also the dullest on record.

Two decades were to pass before the question: ‘Has our climate changed?’ appeared again following a fairly mild and wet winter. The Dundee Courier, on April 9th 1908, suggested that winters had grown milder but admitted there was no known cause. It said that the Thames had not frozen over for nearly 100 years but that this was partly caused by the fact that London Bridge was replaced 80 years previously, totally changing the tidal flow of the Thames.

Five months later a soggy Dublin Horse Show prompted the Wells Journal on September 10th to report on findings by the meteorologist Sir John Moore featured in the Geographic Section. He looked at Rev William Merle’s writings from the 14th century and observations made in Greenwich from 1774.

The facts prove that within the last six centuries at all events appreciable change has taken place in the climate of the British Isles. There is no scintilla of evidence to show that such change has taken place in the past or is likely to take place in the future.

On Boxing Day 1908 the Gloucestershire Echo cited an ancient weather report featured by Sir John Moore. In 1341 the month of April saw continuous frost from 6th to the 13th while the following autumn saw spring-like weather persist from September to December: “Our climate hasn’t changed in 600 years.” was the claim.

A poor summer in 1909 that began with the coldest June for over 230 years once again prompted the question ‘Is our climate changing?’ to be asked again by the Wells Journal on August 5th, 1909. The report says that the climate of Europe is growing colder – with periodic cold summers. It goes on to say that cold summers have happened in the past, mentioning the following years: 820 (cold and wet – most crops perish), 1033 and 1044 (cold and wet, caused famine), 1151 (rain falls in France continuously from end of June to middle of August), 1219, 1315, 1423 and 1512 (cold and wet summers) – in 1512 several people, accused of causing bad weather, were burned at the stake. Other years: 1596, 1639, 1641, 1667 – all had very cold Junes. The years 1809, 1812, 1813, 1816 all had cold summers.

Around the country there were some notable readings. On June 6th a high of just 10C was reached in Oxford and Bath. It was notably cold and wet with significant thunderstorms from 10th to the 12th and 20th to 28th. In London the Trooping the Colour ceremony on 24th was cancelled because of poor weather – one of only four occasions it has been cancelled due to weather since its inception in 1895. It was also a very dull month with no sunshine at all in London from June 2nd to 6th.

The year 1911 produced more remarkable weather and some violent thunderstorms. On May 31st, as the Titanic was being launched in an overcast Belfast, some 17 people were killed by lightning strikes across London and four horses died on Epsom downs on what was the day of the Derby. About 62mm of rain fell in 50 minutes on the Downs and there were 159 lightning strikes in 15 minutes around 5.30pm.

The summer season that year was the warmest for 65 years with many areas having less than half their normal rainfall. July was spectacularly sunny with an average of over 10 hours of bright sunshine over much of southern England: 384 hours of sunshine were recorded at Eastbourne and Hastings, East Sussex, during this month, and these are thought to be the highest sunshine totals recorded anywhere for July in the UK.

August 9th, 1911, saw the first incident of 100F (37.8C) being recorded in London. The record beat the previous high of 97F. The report also makes mention that many areas recorded at least 97F

For the SE of England, with something like 300-350 hours of bright sunshine, this month (with July 2006) is regarded as the sunniest month on record. The month was also exceptionally dry and is still among the ‘Top 5’ dry Julys in the EWP series. August was also warm: the 9th produced the first occasion when 100°F was recorded in London.

During the autumn of 1911, the Shields Daily Gazette on Wednesday, October 25th, was reporting that ‘weather prophets’ were predicting that the UK was in for an exceptionally cold winter. The predictions were based purely on the fact that the country had not had a bad winter in more than 15 years, the last occasion on which the Thames was partly frozen over in the early part of 1895.

“If very cold winters come on an average once every twelve years, an old-fashioned winter is certainly overdue, for there is no ground for supposing that our climate is changing. But it is not the case that cold winters follow hot summers as an invariable rule. They sometimes do so, but the contrary would seem to be as often the case, for the hot summers of 1868 and 1887, to quote two examples, were followed by comparatively mild winters.

The law of averages is certainly on the side of a severe winter this year, but in the case of the weather it is never safe to argue from any law, and as the price of coal is going up, everyone must hope that this time, at all events, the Clerk of the Weather will be merciful.

In the event the Clerk was merciful and winter was mild.

Top 10 warmest and coldest winters — **Warm winters are often thought of as a modern phenomenon but there were plenty in days past**

This mild theme continued for a period prompting the Dundee Courier on Monday, January 2nd 1922 to ask: “Where are our winters? Is our climate changing?” The leading article goes on: “Here we are in January, and so far we have had no snow to speak of. Yes, our climate is changing, and has been for many years. We do not need weather records to tell us that. Our memories provide striking comparisons. In our boyhood days we greased our boots, tucked our trousers in, pulled the ear-flaps of our caps (you remember the style) down tight, wrapped mufflers around our necks (but not for fashion sake), then stood by the big fire to warm up before starting to plod our way through deep snow school.

“Who can forget the snowball battles after school; the hustle home for skates and to the ponds until nightfall; and then some? In those times we planned skating parties, and we were not disappointed. Do we need the records of thermometers and snow gauges to remind of the days of stinging cold and streets “piled high with snow ?

Anyone who says our climate is not changing has not been on this earth long enough to know. The severe winters left indelible marks upon our grandparents and great-grandparents, and the weather developed strong constitutions. They tell of successive winters of heavy snow and intense cold, beginning early in November and lasting until late in March. The snow often was piled up from four to six feet deep on the level.

top 10 wet n dry winter — **There’s been far more wet winters than dry winters in modern times**

“The seasons in those times were evidently well marked, for frequently made of their definite beginning and ending. Winter evidently was the season that concerned our ancestors most, for only slight mention made of any unusual summer.

In Britain the last few years winter temperatures have been higher than the average. The cold period has several times occurred in the autumn and May is showing a tendency to become the most pleasant month of the year, and so we are again reminded that the climate is changing; while statisticians say that average temperatures have remained practically the same for the last 600 years.

“A change in climate does not necessarily involve a change from the average mean temperature. It frequently happens that a warmer winter and a cooler summer or vice versa, or even a moderate winter and an unusually hot summer leave the average practically the same, while climatalogically very decided changes have taken place.”

Six years later a very poor summer prompted the Dundee Evening Telegraph on Tuesday, July 3rd 1928 to again ask the “eternal question”: Is Our Climate Changing? “With days of wind and rain that have made June and July days seem more like March and at times, even November, we are still awaiting our real summer. It is not uncommon to hear people speculating as to whether, after all, our seasons are not in process of changing.

“It is interesting, even if is not comforting, writes a correspondent, to know that people were speculating on exactly the same matter many years ago, and that in 1892 the author of Dundee and Dundonians Seventy Years Ago, when writing on Olden Rime Storms, Floods and Droughts, thought to ask: “Is our climate changing?”

warm and cold summers — **Five of the ten warmest summers have occurred relatively recently**

“In a climate like ours,” says the writer of that interesting little book, the weather is a never-ending topic. Warmer and Colder. I have often heard old people speak of the weather changes that had taken place since their young days, as they expressed it. The summers, they said, were then much warmer, and, as an instance, they said that barley would be above the ground in forty-eight hours after sowing. It was then, they admitted, the last grain that was sown.

The summers then were so hot that the cows could only be put out to pasture in the early morning and evening, as they were driven mad by the ‘glegs’ or horse flies biting them. Then the winters were almost arctic in their severity and length. The seasons were also more sharply divided, approaching those of Russia and North America in their rapid seasonal transitions.

“I know that many about my own age have the same ideas of what has taken place in their time. A very hot or a very cold season or two may, as we get older, come to assume the general character of that far-off time, still I cannot but think that for a good many years past there has been more of a mixing of summer and winter than was the case fifty years ago, winter now being often found in the lap of spring, and summer-like weather about the new year.

“On a New Year’s Day – I can’t remember the date – I gathered blossom from our gooseberry bushes to show to a friend.”

On February 5th 1929 the newspapers were promoting a “new series of talks entitled ‘Is Our Climate Changing'”. The first speaker was a Mr Gordon Manley of the University of Durham. The paper said that the talks, in view of the widespread interest in weather conditions and forecasts, should prove of rather more than usual interest.

wet n dry summers — **Three of the ten driest summers have occurred recently though it is notable that 2012 ranks 4th wettest summer**

Manley later became probably the best known, most prolific and most expert on the climate of Britain of his generation. It took him 30 years to assemble the Central England Temperature (CET) series of monthly mean temperatures stretching back to 1659 – the longest standardised instrumental record available for anywhere in the world.

In the Dundee Courier on Wednesday, July 29, 1931, a report on a recent article “Has our climate changed?” had aroused considerable interest. David Grewar, the well known Glenisla authority, who has a long experience of the glens, gives his views below.

“Such variety of opinion exists as to whether or not our weather has changed. Some say that it has, others that it has not, and that any supposed change is due to the exaggerative effects of memory. These differences of opinion do not only exist among laymen, but among scientists as well.

Making all due allowance for changed habits and the tricks of memory, the older among us are undoubtedly correct when we say that the seasons now are different from our younger days. Then our winters were more severe, our summers better; now there’s more of a levelling up between the two.

“Mere meteorological records of temperature and precipitation cannot be taken as proof of what popularity constitutes severe winter. Suppose, for instance, that a heavy fall of snow is experienced in December, and is slightly augmented now and again for the next two months, and that never more than a few degrees of frost are registered, records would represent that as a mild winter; whereas reality it would be a severe one, because the ground would be deeply covered with snow for the whole winter. On the other hand, we may have a winter of severe frost, with little or no snow, claimed as a severe one.”

Eighteen months later and the Gloucester Citizen, on Friday, January 6th 1933, asked: “Is our climate changing?” The sub heading “January mends its manners” again enquired about whether the persistent succession of mild Januaries in the present century suggested something in the nature of a change in climate?

In the French Revolutionary calendar the division of the year from the middle of December to the middle of January was the month “Nivose” or “snowy”. The Anglo-Saxons called January “Wulfrnonath” because the weather was so intense that wolves, emboldened by hunger, left the forest and invaded the villages. The Dutch used to call January “Lauw-maand” or “frosty month”.

Today, in many parts of the country, particularly in the south and west, amateur gardeners have the delightful rare experience of seeing standard and rambler roses in full bloom, primroses blooming in rich clumps, stocks, polyanthus, indeed, show off flowers usually retarded by frost until the spring.

This changing character of “January freeze-the-pot-by-the-fire” is commented upon by a writer in the current issue Nature:

“January, the coldest month of the year in England, is proverbially associated with snow and ice. During the twentieth century, however, January has not lived up to its name but has been much more open, mild and stormy. with few prolonged frosts.

“At Greenwich the mean January temperature during the decade 1921-30 was 41.3Fs, more than two degrees above normal and probably five or six degrees higher than in some of the decades of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. This persistent period of mild winters has extended over the whole of western and central Europe and is associated with a greater frequency of south-westerly winds and may almost be regarded as a change of climate.”

Within five years, in 1938, Guy Callender produced a paper that developed a theory that Earth temperatures had been rising in line with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. It was the first time that somebody had made this connection: the birth of the science of man-made climate change.

In 1942, the Buckingham Advertiser and Free Press, on Saturday, February 21, was discussing old weather rhymes.

“The speaker gave the following to us as among the most reliable weather verses:

“Livening red and morning grey, are surest signs of a very fine day.”

“When the dew is in the grass, rain will never come to pass.”

“There was a flicker of reason, he said, in the rhyme “rain before seven, fine before eleven”.

“Is our climate changing? Dealing with the question of our climate changing Mr Pettipher observed that people’s idea that the old-fashioned type of weather had gone forever, and that some such solution as the diversion of the Gulf Stream was the cause of the winter warmth, received a rude shock in the early months of 1939 and 1940, which, with the exception of 1929 were probably more severe than anything since 1895.

“Hot summers seemed to have been rather less frequent than in years past ; but our land was not really one of perpetual fog and gloom some novelists would have us believe, nor as bad as American thought when he wrote :

Dirty Days hath September, April. June and November ; from January up to May, the rain it raineth every day ; all the rest have thirty-one, without a blessed gleam of ; and if any of them had two and thirty they’d be just as wet and twice as dirty ! (Laughter.)

“In terms of Buckingham rainfall the speaker emphasized the necessary practical value, especially to sailors, fishermen, agriculturists and sportsmen, and now to our airmen, of weather study and manv observations with regard to rainfall described the Air Ministry’s organisation of 6,000 observers in the different parts of the country, of whom he was one, pointing out that the work had been described as of “national importance” because of its practical value.

“He emphasized that it was not a dry, hot summer that caused anxiety regarding water supplies; but a dry winter season. Buckingham’s average rainfall over a 20-year period was 25.43 inches. During the remarkable thunderstorm of May 19th when the roof of Buckingham Hospital was set alight by lightning 1.01 inches fell in thirty minutes, the percentage of 2.02 inches in the hour qualifying for a place in British Rainfall for a fall of unusual intensity.”

Much has been written about climate change in newspapers and scientific papers since the war. For a long period during the 1960s and 1970s the concern was about global cooling. But this changed in the 1990s when it became scientists identified that the Earth was beginning to warm.

A search of Wiley, the publisher shows a sharp increase in incidences of articles and papers that feature climate change. It is surprisingly just how big the increase has been since the beginning of the 1990s.

Looking at the last 10 years the Financial Times mention of the phrase ‘climate change’ is much more variable, perhaps reflecting the world financial crash of 2008 when concern was deflected away from the environment and on to the economy.

Concerns over climate change today have moved on immeasurably since those first lines of concern were vented in newspapers in 1868. But the socio-economic and geo-political arguments that are associated with the science deserve a blog all on their own. The long-range models that are still being developed, together with further study of ocean sediment, ice cores, tree rings etc illustrate that there is so much more we need to learn about this fascinating subject.

News editors would do well to take a moment the next time they report a hurricane, tornado, flood or snowstorm and realise that ‘freak’ events do happen and that it is not necessarily climate change that is the cause of that particular event in time.

As Mark Twain apparently said in 1887: “Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.”

* Articles featured in the British Newspaper Archive were referenced in compiling this blog

Monthly Review, September 2015 review, Weather

September 2015: cool and rather dry

October 1, 2015 wansteadmeteo 1 Comment

This September was the coolest since 1993. The average mean of 13.4C is 2C below average – a surprising statistic given that the month ended with many bright and sunny days with respectable temperatures. But, with the wind in the east, caused by an anticyclone anchored to the north of us at the end of the month, the air was dry and allowed temperatures to fall smartly away after dark. The average minimum temperature was just under 8.8C, 2.3C below average and the coldest since 1986.

The month was rather dry: some 42mm of rain fell which is 81% of what we can expect in an average September. The wettest day was the 16th when 17.6mm fell.

Just over 140 hours of sunshine were recorded – that’s ‘on the nose’ of the monthly average and 20 hours more than was recorded during the very dull August.

What has October got in store weatherwise? The models today (October 1st) suggest an end to the fine and sunny weather as high pressure declines and is replaced by a trough moving up from the southwest on Monday. Less clear is how the weather evolves from then with the majority of models showing this feature opening the door to a lengthy period of SSW winds and possible rain at times. However, the rain would become more restricted to our northwest as pressure builds from the continent. So a return to something more autumnal looks likely though temperatures will remain on the mild side, especially at night.

This chart shows the low pressure system that brought September wettest day for this area

My long range outlook method suggests that October will be average temperature will be average temperature-wise, a mean of about 11.8C, at 44% probability. The next highest probabilities are for something cool, at 22% probability. Something rather cool or very cool comes out at 11%. There appears no chance for a mild month.

The highest probability for rainfall is 33% for something rather wet: between 84mm and 100mm. The next highest probabilities is for an average, rather dry and dry October at 22%.

My data for sunshine only stretches back to 1878. The signal is inconsistent so I would guess sunshine will be average.

My September outlook for sunshine was good in that I estimated that there was a 60% chance of average sunshine. Less good was the finding that there was only a 23% chance of a dry September – the highest probability was for something average. And my temperature estimation put the probability of a rather cool September at only 14%. So, all in all, not great.

Here follows the full weather diary for September…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

1st Cloudy start though with some brightness. Small shower mid afternoon which was the edge of large storm that affected Essex.
2nd Sunny bright start though with lots of cloud from noon. Lots of convection.
3rd Cool, cloudy start. Some brightness but feeling cool in the wind. A few spots of rain.
4th Bright start with some sunshine tempered by the breeze. Mostly cloudy all day.
5th Light rain to start with brighter spells. Problem of being on the edge of high pressure. A sunny afternoon.
6th Sunny start with just a few clouds during the day.
7th Sunny start but cloud gradually increased during the day.
8th Cloudy start, overnight ‘rain’ was dew. Mostly cloudy all day. Warm overnight.
9th Cloudy start but a few holes appearing as the day wore on and sunshine at 1330.
10th Sunny start though with cloud bubbling up sunny spells followed. Clear with heavy dew overnight.
11th Sunny start with wispy cirrus – more cloud bubbling up during the day.
12th Cloudy start over overnight rain. This breaking up toward late morning to leave a sunny spells afternoon.
13th Cloudy start – this breaking up toward noon to leave bright afternoon. Some rain overnight.
14th Cloudy start, rain arrived soon after 10am and lasted over an hour. Then bright spells and more showers through the day and into the evening and overnight.
15th Cloudy start with heavy shower moving in at 12.30pm. Showers cleared through to leave cloudy early evening.
16th Cloudy start with rain spreading in at 12.30pm. Some heavy bursts through the day. Rain all the way in to work and torrential rain coming back from school at 5.30pm. Bursts through the evening and light drizzle was falling on way home at 1am, tending to peter out.
17th Sunny start tending to cloud in more.
18th Bright but cloudy start with clouds bubbling up. A heavy shower by 1pm.
19th Sunny all day with odd cloud. Warm in sun.
20th Sunny all day, any cloud decreased.
21st Spots of rain just before obs time. A mostly cloudy day. Heavy, showery rain between 5.30am and 7.30am.
22nd A cloudy, chilly day with rain after noon.
23rd Sunny, gin clear start. Clouding over by 2pm with rain at 1am.
24th Bright start after rain overnight. Sunny spells developing – a late shower at 1534. Dry and clear overnight.
25th Sunny start though with cloud bubbling up the sun disappeared at times. Cold overnight with a heavy dew.
26th Sunny and clear to start, though with cloudier periods through the day.
27th Sunny clear start with a few clouds bubbling up through the day. Mostly clear for lunar eclipse totality at 3.11am.
28th Sunny start with long clear periods during the day.
29th Mostly sunny with just some cirrus.
30th Sunny start with just a few cirrus. Stronger breeze than yesterday.

History, World War 2

Deadliest day of Blitz in South Woodford

September 23, 2015 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

Today, 75 years ago, saw the heaviest casualties of the Blitz in South Woodford – a parachute mine in the Stanley Road area killed 17 people and injured dozens more.

George Lane, South Woodford, during the Blitz

The day, a Monday, dawned bright and sunny and revealed yet more destruction from the previous night’s raid as shopkeepers in George Lane cleared away shattered glass caused by a high explosive bomb.

Some 10 hours of sunshine lifted the temperature to above 18C, conditions brought thanks to high pressure building in from the west. But the fair weather was in complete contrast to what lay in store as night fell.

At 9.19pm two high explosive bombs fell on 62 and 74 Gordon Road, South Woodford, demolishing four houses. Over the next 15 minutes three similar missiles fell in Broad Walk, Cheyne Avenue and Chelmsford Road, leaving people trapped and bursting a water main.

However, a couple of minutes later, a parachute mine landed on Stanley and Chelmsford Roads, killing 17 and injuring dozens. Some 36 people needed hospital treatment. Further bombs damaged a nursing home in Grove Hill.

The air raid brought the highest number of fatalities in any single incident of the Blitz in Wanstead and Woodford. The extent of the damage to property was considered the first affair of real magnitude that the local Civil Defence services had faced.

Further widespread bombing occurred in the following days.

* The first paramine fell early on the morning of September 21st. A plane carried two mines, one under each wing, and released them simultaneously. Controlled by its parachute, 20 feet in diameter, the mine, containing an explosive charge of one tonne, drifted slowly down. If the first explosion was not followed quickly by another, it was fairly certain that not too far away was an unexploded mine. Discovery, as of all unexploded bombs, was the job of the warden who was working in the blackout.

** The area of damage cased by the blast effect of the paramine could extend 650 yards from the landing point

Holiday weather

Mamma Mia! Summer storms hit Skiathos

September 2, 2015 wansteadmeteo 2 Comments

Thunderstorms and prolonged heavy rain aren’t what you usually associate with the Aegean in August. So to experience three days in a row of inclement weather must be rare in this beautiful part of Europe.

Water from the hills above turned local roads into rivers

Arriving at the end of a heatwave the owner of my hotel in Skiathos remarked that humidity had been particularly high though temperatures had cooled from the previous week’s level of 36C – not bad in itself but when you consider the low fell to just 27.1C those sorts of values make it impossible to sleep without air conditioning.

Sunshine on the first couple of days came to an abrupt end on the Friday night with the arrival of the first disturbance – the sound of thunder and torrential rain audible above the low buzz of the air conditioning. The storm gradually cleared in the morning to leave sunny spells by the afternoon.

This process repeated itself over the next couple of days although by the third night only heavy rain developed. Since returning to the UK I’ve had a look at statistics from a weather station located on the north of the island near Kastro. Rain totals on August 21st, 22nd and 23rd were 36.2mm, 39.2mm and 34mm respectively – bringing the total for the month to 113mm, nearly three times what fell last August. Looking at national Greek totals on Ogimet the disturbance was very localised.

Torrents of water from the storms caused deep scars in the landscape. I spotted this at the edge of an olive grove during a walk through a forest to Mandraki

The torrents of rain carved deep gorges in the paths that criss-cross the island. And during a walk from Koukounaries to Madraki part of the impacted sand/soil road down to the beach had been washed away.

Locals didn’t seem that phased by it and judging by the number of tavernas with wind down sides to their awnings it is perhaps a common feature of the climate?

Mean temperature for August was 0.3C up on last year: 27C, though the number of days of >32C was nearly half last year.

The island, part of the Sporades, is famous for being the location where the hit musical Mamma Mia was filmed – though most filming was done on neighbouring Skopelos. It’s a very green area – much more so than southern islands I’ve visited such as Ios and Crete which are arid by comparison.

During a visit to Skopelos, which has a landscape that looks almost Alpine from a distance with its pine forested hills, I was puzzled by the lack of wind turbines, especially considering how reliable wind seems to be in the surrounding waters.

One of the many stunning beaches on Skiathos. This bay is close to Mandraki

Greece does have an extensive wind power programme though much of it is based in the mountains in the north. EU politics over energy tariffs also probably play a part.

Thunderstorms also played a part on our flight home. As we crossed the mountains of Macedonia and the Balkans to the north I could see vast cumulonimbus begin to form. The pilot made an excellent job of keeping turbulence to a minimum by steering us around these forces of nature – a couple of which reached above our cruising altitude of 39,000ft.

* Storms also affected Skiathos and Skopelos in September. A weather station on Skopelos reported 209.6 mm on 22nd September, with an additional 56.2mm on the day before and 49.2mm the day after. The month there has abundantly given 317mm, but this is *not* the wettest area of Greece for September so far. The very warm seas at this time of the year have given numerous places a lot of precipitation, backed up, of course, by great support aloft .

The storm caused much damaged and devastation to infrastructure in the towns in Skopelos.

Görüntüler aşırı yağmur sonrası #Yunanistan'ın Skopelos adasından pic.twitter.com/nISFBMIj1B

— Evren Dede (@evrendede) September 23, 2015

A news report here

The island of Skopelos is even more stunning than Skiathos

Much convection could be seen developing during the flight home as we crossed Macedonia and the Balkan mountains to the north — Much convective development could be seen during the flight home as we crossed Macedonia and the Balkan mountains to the north

The pilot made a good job of steering round the storms. It made a change to see these beasts from above - though some still developed higher than our 39,000ft cruising altitude — The pilot made a good job of steering round the storms. It made a change to see these marvels of nature from above – though some still developed higher than our 39,000ft cruising altitude

In a shop close to Koukounaries beach I noticed this selection of snowy pictures that were taken on the island a few years ago. Being north of Athens it is not surprising that they occasionally see snow here

Summer weather review

Varied summer climate leaves media stumped

September 1, 2015 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

Summer 2015 has got quite a bad press over the past couple of weeks but it hasn’t really been that bad overall in this area. And, as ever with the weather, it wasn’t without interest.

Though the summer was wet overall it was very dry well into July

Two extreme records were broken: The maximum on the 1st of July of 36.1C and the minimum on the 30th of July of 6.9C. There were also a couple of cracking thunderstorms.

Mean temperature for the three months was the lowest since 2012, the same year that saw more rain than this summer’s 167.7mm. Both 2012 and 2011 were a fair bit wetter than this summer and this season’s rainfall wasn’t a patch on some of the washout summers of my youth – both 1985 and 1987 were at least 150% wetter than summer 2015.

More notable was the lack of sunshine – it was the dullest summer since 2002.

Looking beyond Wanstead the perceived poor summer elsewhere was largely caused by cooler than normal sea temperatures west of Ireland, together with warmer water around the Azores. Simon Keeling explains this well here.

Three months ago I predicted that summer would be broadly average temperature-wise with average to slightly below average rainfall and average sunshine. So how did the forecast do?

In terms of temperature my predicted figure of 17.4C was 0.5C lower than the result. My rainfall prediction was only 76% of what actually fell and I over-estimated sunshine by 16%.

Despite some of the dire reviews of summer elsewhere in the UK there were some fine spells

With the Daily Telegraph reporting that the Met Office predicted a “dry, hot season” it’s probably not a bad effort.

* The 1981-2010 average mean for summer in this region is 17.6C, with 144.9mm of rain and 564 hours of sunshine

August 2015 review, Monthly Review, Weather

August 2015: average, wet and very dull

September 1, 2015 wansteadmeteo 1 Comment

This August was the third dullest since 1881. I’ve seen mentioned recently that August used to be regarded as an autumn month. For the past couple of years the final ‘summer’ month has been very disappointing for anyone looking for fine weather – much more akin to September or even October.

A storm in south London gave this eerie light seen at Southwark Bridge on the 5th

The first third of the month began pleasantly enough with a couple of days exceeding 27C. And on the 22nd the temperature reached 31.4C, only the third occasion that the mercury has risen above the 30C mark this summer. But summery highlights were few and far between.

Just under 120 hours of sunshine were recorded – that’s 62 per cent of the monthly average, the dullest August since 1968.

There were six occasions when the maximum exceeded 25C. Mean temperature for the month was 18.2C, which is on the nose of the 1981-2010 mean. Rainfall of 79.8mm was 159% of average. The wettest day occurred on the 24th with 18.4mm of rain.

What has September got in store weatherwise? The models today (September 1st) suggest a very slow progression of high pressure ridging into the UK from the west this weekend. Until then a cool northerly flow will persist with a mix of sunshine and possibly heavy showers. Most models suggest that by the end of the week a trough will run south, bringing a spell of cloud and rain before high pressure from the west eventually cuts off the cool northerly, replacing it with little or no wind, warmer sunny spells by day and misty nights – typical late summer / early autumn weather. Models then split over what will happen with the high next week. It could stay settled or, according to the ECMWF and GFS, the start of a breakdown could happen at the end of next week.

The synoptic chart shows the frontal set up that brought the greatest daily rainfall on the 24th

My long range outlook method suggests that September will be average temperature-wise, a mean of about 15.4C, at 52% probability. The next highest probabilities are for something rather warm and warm, both at 14% probability, though something rather cool also comes out 14% probability.

The highest probability for rainfall is 45% for something average. The next highest probability is for a dry September, at 23%. Rather wet works out at 14%.

My data for sunshine only stretches back to 1878. There is a 60% chance of average sunshine in September.

My August outlook was OK – I went for an average to rather cool August. I also said there was a 73% chance of a duller than average August – so not bad overall.

Here follows the full weather diary for August…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

1st Bright but hazy start. Cloud gradually thinned to give a sunny afternoon with just a few clouds. Warmer.
2nd Sunny start with decreasing cloud.
3rd Sunny start quickly turned cloudy and blustery with brief burst of rain at 4pm. Then dry with variable cloud overnight and breezy.
4th Bright start but lots of cloud around and breezy. This lasting through the day.
5th Cloudy start, a few bright intervals and a strange light as thunder clouds passed to the south. Some light rain.
6th Cloudy start but cloud thinned to become sunny just before 2pm. Then variable cloud through the day with another eerie sunset.

Many places around the coast recorded far more sunshine than Wanstead, typical of the type of weather experienced in August

7th Sunny start though was very cloudy at times.
8th Bright start and cloud quickly melted away to leave a stunning, sunny day in Sussex and Camber. Some cloud was seen a few miles inland but even this eventually melted away. Night turned chilly with heavy dew by dawn.
9th Sunny until 3pm then a bank of cloud brought cloudier spells. Warm overnight.
10th Bright start with sunny intervals. A burst of rain at 2pm damped the ground then it was mostly cloudy for the rest of the day.
11th Cloudy, calm start, spits and spots of rain before more organised rain in evening.
12th Cloudy start then brief sunny spells late morning before clouding up again. Warm front stalled over South Coast dumping 32mm on Herstmonceux.
13th Cloudy with rain spreading in late morning, this lasting until 3pm with odd burst of drizzle for rest of night. Some 78mm in Polegate and flooding reported in Brighton.
14th Cloudy and very humid with some brightness late morning. Showers returned at 3.30pm then more general rain arrived at 8pm.

This radar shows the area of rain that brought over 10mm to Wanstead on 31st

15th Sunny start, clouded over at 2.30pm but then became sunny again at 5.30pm. Clear spells overnight.
16th Sunny start then cloudier in the afternoon. Very still air though made it feel pleasant.
17th Sunny start then cloudier around lunchtime. Sunny spells late afternoon though sun didn’t feel that strong.
18th Sunny start though quickly clouding over and dull. Some spots of rain on way to airport but dry in Wanstead.
19th Sunny start then going downhill with rain in the evening and overnight.
20th Bright start, clouding over.
21st Bright start before breaking to sunny spells and warm.
22nd Long sunny periods and 3rd occasion of 30C.
23rd Bright start but cloud built to give rain between 12.45 and 2.45pm.
24th Dull, rainy with rain between 9am and 11am.
25th Rain between 1pm and 3pm. Showers overnight then more general rain at obs time.
26th Dull and rain morning with squall blowing through at 1.30pm. Brightening up by 5pm then some bright spells late afternoon.
27th Bright start but with heavy cloud present. A brief shower in the afternoon before a clear evening made it chilly overnight.
28th Sunny start with light breeze, tending to cloud over middle part of the day. Skies cleared again to give sunny, pleasant evening.
29th Sunny start, cloud filled in by 3pm then rain arrived at 4pm, with moderate bursts.
30th Cloudy and humid start. Cloud stuck around all day – airless and therefore felt pleasant.
31st Cloudy start after overnight rain. The rain soon returned after 10.20am and fell, often heavily through until 12.30pm.

Events, History

180 years ago: The Flats on Fire

August 7, 2015 wansteadmeteo 1 Comment

This month 180 years ago a huge fire consumed a large area of Wanstead Flats. Approximately one tenth of the total 335 acres of grassland was set ablaze – the cause believed to be a discarded tobacco pipe.

June was marked by some spectacular cloudscapes and sunsets. This was the view across Wanstead Flats from Centre Road looking toward Ilford on the 21st — Looking east over Wanstead Flats from Centre Road. Long Wellesley sold off a lot of the peat on the Flats to local nurseries

At first the fire was ignored – locals thought the blaze would burn itself out or that rain would damp it down. However, it continued to grow. The Bucks Herald, on August 15th 1835, reported that in a period of three weeks the Flats had become “one mass of fire” and that in many places the blaze had descended to a depth of two feet from the surface of the peaty surroundings.

Locals, in an age where the Fire Brigade was still 30 years away from being formed, sought to put out the flames themselves. A number of horse-drawn watering carts belonging to the Essex Turnpike Trust were commandeered to carry water from a pond to extinguish the flames. For the best part of nine days residents tried in vain to defeat the fire.

Mr Speering, the deputy of the Lord of the Manor, the hapless Mr Long Wellesley, was summoned to convey the desperate circumstances to the government of the day – to try and appeal for help to defeat the blaze. Some 70 men, miners and “sappers” from Woolwich, duly arrived to dig a trench 5ft wide and six to eight inches deep around the perimeter of the blaze, but it was not before much damage was done to the land that locals depended to feed their cattle and horses.

Looking at the statistics of that summer the temperature and rainfall looks fairly average – ruling out a dry spell being the catalyst of the inferno. It was suggested at the time that the fire was exacerbated by neglect of the land – the blame therefore lying ultimately at the door of Long Wellesley.

The slow reaction time by the government of the day prompted the following poem to be published in the Leeds Times:

WANSTEAD FLATS ON FIRE

Go, ring the alarm bell, call the Crier.

And warn the neighbours the Flats are on fire.

Not Wanstead Flats; no, duller far,

And dryer, the Flats I speak of, are,

Made, like old timber that hath the rot,

Old rages, old shavings, and what not,

To crackle and blaze with vast elation

I a brief but furious conflagaration;

But enough – what need of further words? –

The Flats are on fire in the House of Lords!!

There’s Winchelsea “flaring up”, like a rocket,

With lush-light Clumber, low in his socket;

There’s Strangford blazing like red-hot steel, And Lyndhurst ignited from head to heel;

Cumberland makes that sort of show,

He’ll make one day in the – – -,

Whiz! goes Law, tied fast to the Duke,

Like a squib to a pedagogue’s peruque;

Wicklow and Buckingham, blessed pair!

Flash, like the Lesser and Greater Bear; –

In short, their Lordship’s, like Dido’s pyre,

Are all just now one mass of fire!

‘Tis a sad – a terrible case no doubt;

What shall we do? Shall we put them out?

No, let them blaze away, while we

Look on with undissembled glee,

And laugh to think, like rational folk,

How soon their fire will end in smoke!

Cold front clearance over Wanstead Flats on 28th. The day saw three potent cold fronts with steep temperature falls. <5mm hail in the last and thunder heard in Woodford Green — Cold front clearance over Wanstead Flats on February 28th. The day saw three potent cold fronts with steep temperature falls. <5mm hail in the last and thunder heard in Woodford Green

Though officially the House of Commons held the reins of legislature the House of Lords still held great influence, as Lord Wellington noted that year: “The House of Lords still constitutionally possesses great power over the legislation of the country”.

The current custodians of our local parklands, City of London Corporation, would do well to take note from this story. While they are taking action in improving the care of the land it is obvious from the comments I hear while walking around the Flats and Wanstead Park that much more needs to be done.

July 2015 review, Monthly Review, Weather

July 2015: average, wet and dull

August 2, 2015 wansteadmeteo 2 Comments

The title of this monthly review is probably very misleading as July was a month that blew hot and cold.

The Casella 'check' thermometer registered 35.8C on July 1st - 0.3C lower than the AWS reading, within the contraints — The Casella ‘check’ thermometer registered 35.8C on July 1st – 0.3C lower than the AWS reading, within the contraints

The start of the month began with the July all-time record being set: 36.1C. The month ended with a couple of very chilly nights: 6.9C in the early hours of 31st with a grass minimum of 4.5C. I haven’t yet been able to go through my records but, according to the Met Office, temperatures in southern England on the same night that fell to 1C represent an all-time low July record.

There were ten occasions when the maximum exceeded 25C. Mean temperature for the month was 18.6C, 0.1C above the 1981-2010 mean and the coolest July since 2012. Rainfall of 70.4mm was 162% of average though it is worth noting that three quarters of this was recorded on two days.

There were 174 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is 91% of what we can expect to see during an average July. The wettest day occurred on the 24th with 32.4mm of rain. There were two days of thunder recorded.

So what has August got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (August 1st) suggest very little change in the overall pattern of things. The jet stream is still well south across the Atlantic and is likely to remain so for the forseeable future. However, because we are on the eastern side of the troughed flow across the eastern Atlantic this allows the potential for some very warm or even hot conditions to be drawn up across the UK in the coming five days and possibly beyond. However, the longer projections turns the flow more west to east across the south of the UK again returning cooler air to the SE as well in week two.

This means a continuation of changeable conditions as low pressure remains anchored in the north-west or north of the UK. Thunder could be likely.

In contrast to the models my long range method suggests that we are in for a rather cool August, about 1C below average, at 41% probability. The next highest probability is for something average at 27% probability. So an average to rather cool August works out at 68% probability.

Rainfall is uncertain. There is the same probability for dry (50% average) and very wet (175% average): 23% probability. However, the next highest probability is for average at 18%.

This grainy image shows distant lightning illuminating a cloud. The storm was centred over St Albans on July 16th

My data for sunshine only stretches back to 1878. There is a 73% chance of a duller than average August.

My July outlook was very poor, I predicted a rather warm to warm month – but it was nothing like last year’s or the 2013 classic. My rainfall and sunshine predictions were also hopelessly out. However, it was the first month since January that my temperature forecast has been wide of the mark. It’s just weather – in that it frequently doesn’t do what you think it’s going to do.

Here follows the full weather diary for July…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

1st: Sunny until after midday when cloud bubbled up and took edge of temperature. Hottest July day ever was set at 5pm. Breeze made it feel bearable.
2nd: Sunny start though cloud quickly built with rain at midday. Just 0.3mm fell which evaporated on impact with the hot ground.
3rd: Sunny, clear day though humidity began to build from mid afternoon with the appearance of cloud. Still sunny spells till late into the evening. Big thunderstorm from around midnight for an hour.
4th: Sunny and muggy start. Long sunny spells, hardly a cloud in the sky until later. Sunny dawn but rain arrived at 9am.
5th: Light rain to start. This cleared late morning to sunny spells. Feeling muggy.
6th: Sunny start though lots of fair weather cumulus bubbled up.
7th: Cloudy start with light patchy rain around 11.30am, clearing to sunny spells. Some rain after 9am.
8th Cloudy and blustery with rain in the air. A few showers around.
9th: Sunny with just a few clouds, low humidity. Sky completely cleared after 3pm for a gorgeous evening.
10th: Sunny start. Some cloud bubbling up as jetstream neared – lots of cirrus and then cirrocumulus forming. Turned sunnier late afternoon. Also dawned clear and sunny.
11th: Long sunny spells with just a few cirrus and cumulus at times. Feeling warm and humid. Some light rain around midnight but not amounting to much.
12th: Cloudy and comparatively cool compared with recently. Light rain at 5pm with drizzle in wind through evening. More rain at 7.30am that fell intermittently up to obs time.
13th: Light rain to start with bursts through morning to 10.45am. Further bursts of light rain into early afternoon then overcast and muggy all night. More drizzle early am.
14th: Drizzly start – this continued into late morning. Then overcast and muggy. More drizzly burst overnight into the early hours – drizzle was persistent from 8.30am to 9am.
15th: Sunny intervals after light drizzle.
16th: Bright and sunny spells tending to turn more cloudy after midday. Big electrical storm around midnight with 67 flashes per minute seen to the north-west.
17th: Light drizzle to start turned to bright spells and a pleasant summer’s day.
18th: Sunny start with cloud bubbling up late afternoon. Light rain shower at 8.30 at end of Music in Wanstead Park and again in early hours at 6am.
19th: Sunny morning tended to cloud in at midday before cold front cleared to leave sunny evening. Mackerel sky at dusk with light rain at 8.15am.
20th: Showery rain to start.
21st: Sunny start but clouds bubbled up through the day for long sunny spells. Warm with a breeze.
22nd: Sunny start, cloud bubbling up during the day with spots of rain at 5pm – heavy shower in Wanstead.
23rd: Cloudy with occasional bright spells, feeling humid.
24th: Drizzly start. rain started falling at 11am. Outbreaks of prolonged rain through the day, heaviest between 5pm and 6pm. More rain after 8pm but then a drier interlude before more rain at midnight as occluded front came back. Last tip of the gauge just before 4am.
25th: Sunny and breezy though much cooler. A pleasant evening at John’s party though. Cloudy spells overnight before rain moved in at 9am.
26th: Rain to start with heavy outbreaks up to 1pm. Further outbreaks of rain through the day and into the evening.
27th: Drizzly bursts of rain to 11am. Then dry and bright.
28th: Bright and breezy to start. A light shower in evening then cool and clear – sunny start.
29th: Bright start but cloud filling in. Burst of rain at 8.30pm then variable cloud overnight.
30th: Bright but a burst of rain just after 10am. Then mostly cloudy with a few bright breaks.
31st: Sunny start but cloud filled in.

Events, History, The Blitz, World War 2

75th anniversary of the Blitz in Wanstead

July 31, 2015 wansteadmeteo 6 Comments

This month marks the 75th anniversary of the start of the Blitz in Wanstead and Woodford. Over a period of eight months around 450 bombs were dropped on the two boroughs, killing 129 people and injuring 194.

The summer of 1940 had been varied; a warm and dry June was followed by a cool and wet July. The weather turned much warmer and drier in August, just 2mm of rain fell during the whole month. Only one August has been drier since and parts of London went 46 days without any measurable rain.

As people got on with their summer and the Phoney War (Britain had been in conflict with Germany for nearly a year) events in Europe must have seemed a world away. This all changed just after 11pm on Wednesday, August 28th when two high explosive bombs and one incendiary were dropped at two addresses in Woodford Green. Damage was light and only one minor injury was reported but the event brought home to citizens that the war was starting to happen on their doorsteps.

The days that followed were fraught with uncertainty; sirens sounded at any time of the day or night – the rapping of machine guns could be heard faintly in the skies as British fighters and enemy spotters fought invisible battles; the anti-aircraft guns pounding away on outlying sites including Wanstead Flats.

On the afternoon of Saturday, August 31st, a British fighter plane crashed in Hereford Road, taking out the front of a house and landing in the road – the pilot having earlier bailed out.

The opening week of September saw the hottest spell of the season. But summer, and the relative peace that Britain had enjoyed since the announcement of hostilities a year earlier, came to an abrupt end on September 7th.

It had been a beautiful day on the 7th with wall-to-wall sunshine and warm temperatures – the eighth day running the thermometer had reached the mid to late 70s fahrenheit. Many people were outside taking advantage of the weather when at 5pm the drone of the first Luftwaffe bombers could be heard passing to the south of the borough. By 6pm the skies were empty but all Thameside blazed.

The bombers struck again soon after 8pm, guided to their earlier smoking targets of the docks and the East End. As the sun began to set a red glow in the sky to the west and south-west gave the impression that all London was burning.

Wanstead and Woodford, so far unscathed, sent rescue parties to East Ham to help. Within a few hours, however, the area itself became the target of bombing when, at 1.25am, the first of three high explosive bombs fell in the Grove Park area behind the High Street. Two houses (Nos. 7 and 9) in Grove Park and the central block of the Shrubbery flats collapsed. A row of shops in the High Street, what is now Boots, was badly damaged by the third bomb which was dropped along with about 500 incendiaries.

A fire gutted the roof of 30 High Street, a house overlooking Christchurch Green, which is now a large block of flats on the corner of Wanstead Place, opposite the pie and mash shop.

The explosions left eight dead in the immediate vicinity while another blast in Highfield Road, Woodford Green, claimed the lives of three others. Some 50 people were injured across the two boroughs during the raid which was over by 2.30am. Rescue teams worked through the night to combat fires and tend to the injured. Wanstead and Woodford had suffered far less damage than other parts of London and a decision had already been taken to accept 2,000 evacuees from the East End. By Sunday lunchtime the first of these began to arrive in buses and lorries.

It was a dull day, ten degrees cooler than Saturday and probably reflected the public mood at the time. The bombings went on nightly through September – in the next two months there was little falling off. The manner of peoples’ lives is summed up in this entry from the diary of a local man:

“Night of September 11-12: Terrific AA barrage ended about 5am. To bed at 5.40. At 6.20 phone call saying office hit and we were to work at – . Left home at 7am. Settled down in strange building with difficulty, and grew so overwhelmingly sleepy that (having been awake for 5 nights) fell asleep standing up.”

But, two days later:

“Saturday 14th – left office 2 o’clock and spent two hours gardening. Beautiful autumn afternoon.”

As the boroughs learnt to cope with high explosive bombs, each weighing between 250-2,000lbs, the horror of the first parachute mine emerged within a couple of weeks. On September 23, a paramine fell in the Stanley Road area of South Woodford, killing 17 people – the highest number of deaths recorded in any single incident in the borough.

The borough was the first district to experience an explosive incendiary. A fire watcher of over 70 lost the sight of an eye from this type of bomb but continued on duty until the end of the war.

A warden called “Will” wrote this letter to his parents on September 29th 1940. It is intriguing for me because in the letter he mentions a house that I lived in in Cavendish Drive, Leytonstone. He says that an incendiary bomb lodged in the loft before burning through to the floor. While decorating one year I uncovered scorch marks in the landing well as well as charred damaged on the bannister and scorch marks on the floorboards – evidence of bomb damage.

As Wanstead, Woodford and the rest of suburban London got over the initial shock of the start of the Blitz people acted to keep life going as normally as possible. Many people who weren’t appointed as wardens learnt, through local authority training, to deal with incendiary bombs – airborne missiles dropped by the Luftwaffe that could easily pierce slate roofs and set fires below. Stirrup pumps could be bought and, through a family effort, fires could be extinguished or controlled until the arrival of the fire brigade.

The intensity of the night raids that brought so much destruction in September continued through October. The neighbouring borough of Woodford bore the brunt of the bombing but Wanstead, being so close to anti-aircraft guns sited on Wanstead Flats, continued to be hit. On the 11th six high explosive bombs fell on Wanstead Park, one damaging the Temple. Two days later high explosive bombs fell on land close to the City of London Cemetery on Aldersbrook Road, leaving six craters.

On the 14th three people were killed when a high explosive bomb landed in Woodlands Avenue on the Aldersbrook estate while incediaries caused many small fires in properties on Elmcroft Avenue. By the end of October the attacks started to be scaled back.

3:11:1940 — Synoptic chart for November 3rd 1940. Image courtesy of the Met Office

Bad weather at the start of November coincided with a 6-day pause in bombing incidents. It was a very cyclonic month that probably hampered German air operations. Indeed, on November 3rd, 40.8mm of rain was recorded at Greenwich – a daily record for November that remains to this day.

Another 6-day pause in the bombing happened after November 16th. When the Luftwaffe returned on Saturday, November 23rd, it was Wanstead that bore the brunt. At 4.12pm, as light was fading on a dull, dreary afternoon, high explosive bombs caused fires at and partly demolished nos 78 and 89 New Wanstead. A minute later another bomb ruptured water and gas mains in Spratt Hall Road. At 4.30pm a further high explosive bomb fell in the High Street, killing 4 people. The raid ended at 5.16pm as a bomb fell in Fitzgerald Road though this time there were no injuries.

By now the weather was beginning to quieten down though weeks of deep depressions with associated gales and heavy rain had taken their toll – many residents reported problems of Anderson bomb shelters being constantly flooded – but it was probably the design as much as the weather that was to blame. Some 171.6mm of rain was collected by month end in Greenwich – a record for this region that also remains to this day.

As pressure built in the last few days of November the first frosts of winter arrived but the bombs returned. High explosive devices fell in Woodford New Road and Bunces Lane on the 30th, fracturing a water main.

On December 3rd bombs fell in Nelson Road, Woodford Road and Eagle Lane, damaging road surfaces. Later the same night houses in Wellington Road and Elmcroft Avenue were badly damaged by bombs.

The final raid of the year, on the evening of December 8th, saw yet more tragedy befall the boroughs. Just after 7pm a high explosive bomb fell in St Albans Road, killing three people. And at 10.25pm a paramine was dropped on Wordsworth Avenue, South Woodford, killing 14 people and injuring 41.

The raids didn’t start up again until January 5th. Mostly dry, cloudy and cold weather allowed residents who hadn’t moved out to make what they could of Christmas.

The turn of the year saw the weather turn much colder as an anticyclone became established over Scandinavia. The opening week was dominated by bitterly cold easterly winds with temperatures barely above freezing, severe frosts at night and some snow – a near repeat of the severe January a year earlier.

On January 5th bombs were dropped on St Albans Crescent and Canfield Road. Further high explosive bombs fell in the area on the 7th and 11th as the cold continued to bite. The minimum on the night of the 15th/16th fell to minus 7.5°C, but during the third week a thaw set in as heavy snow turned to rain, it became misty, and temperatures slowly rose. On the 20th, nearly 17mm of rain (including melted snow) fell, and on the 22nd the temperature rose above 8°C.

A dull and rather wet February followed with temperatures close to normal. The early part of the month was cold with frost and some snow. After a minimum temperature below minus 6°C. on the night of the 4th/5th, outbreaks of snow occurred during the day and the maximum temperature stayed below freezing. Though it was cold in Wanstead much heavier snowfalls occurred over north-east England. A thaw set in at the end of the first week, and on the 8th the maximum was above 11°C.

Just one raid happened in February but further horror lay in wait in March – a month which continued the theme of the wet, miserable and dull winter. The early part of the month was unsettled with heavy rain at times. On the 6th, over 13mm fell. During the second week it became dry with sunny periods. There were some frosty nights and lingering fog. On the 12th, the maximum temperature was only 5°C. Temperatures slowly rose during the third week.

On the 19th four members of the Civil Defence Services gave their lives as they went about their duties at Post 41 “F” District headquarters (Aldersbrook Tennis Club), an area of South Wanstead, which, from the battering it received from the early days of bombing (and which later continued through the phases of the flying bomb and the V2 rocket) became known as “The Battle Field” or “Hell Fire Corner”.

The following impression of that night is written by one who was at the scene:

“The wail of the siren opposite the Post announced at 8.15pm the arrival of the raiders. The Post personnel saw a startling sight. The Flats were a sea of flame. Thousands of incendiaries were burning on the open space. The guns roared. It was obvious that the enemy was making a concerted and determined attack. Bomb flashes stabbed the blackout. Planes droned overhead. The batteries on the Flats joined those further away in putting up a terrific barrage.

At 8.50pm, three high explosive bombs fell in Lake House Road, damaging a number of houses and partly demolishing Nos 14 and 31. A few casualties resulted, one being a man who was trapped in the doorway of No. 14. Wardens heaved on the obstruction to release him. Gas escaping in the same house caused a fire. This was quickly dealt with and the flames smothered. A nearby barrage balloon had burst into flames, illuminating the scene with glaring brilliance and revealing the widespread damage.

At 9.20pm this first incident appeared closed, and services were awaiting the result of a final search and check-up before being dismissed. Then a parachute mine landed. It exploded a few yards from Aldersbrook corner on the Leytonstone side. A house in Lake House Road, already badly damaged, tottered to destruction. Number 11 caught fire and was destroyed. Loss of life would have been heavy but for the fact that most of the inhabitants had by now taken refuge in the Aldersbrook public shelter, and those who remained were in their dugouts.

The attack died down. Wardens returned to their posts – but the number for 41 was sadly lacking. The two boys’ bicycles stood in their usual place. ‘Busy somewhere’ said the chief. But the absent ones did not return, and a search was made. They were found – in the mortuary, three of them. It was known that two others had been taken to hospital. Warden Barnett was one of these. He died next morning of his injuries.

Just before the mine exploded, the messengers had been giving assistance in one of the less badly-damaged houses. Broome, although officially not on duty, had rushed out to lend a hand. Warden Hutton was endeavouring to turn off the gas at No 14 when the mine fell.

So the four from Post 41 died doing their duty on the Home Front. The two boys, pals in the service, sleep in one grave in Old Wanstead churchyard. The two men lie close by, in Ilford Cemetery.

A few days later their comrades stood silently at attention as the funeral cortege halted outside the Post. A Union Jack covered each of the four coffins.

The four members of the Civil Defence Services who gave their lives were: Thomas Hutton, 44, a warden, of Blake Hall Crescent, Wanstead; William Barnett, 36, a warden, of Belgrave Road, Wanstead; Roy Broome, 17, a messenger, of Lake House Road, Wanstead; and Herbert Stower, 18, a messenger, of Clavering Road, Wanstead.

Winston Churchill's letter to his constituents — Winston Churchill’s letter to his constituents

As spring wore on the weather remained mostly miserable though raid incidents lessened and petered out in May. Wanstead and Woodford had its last bombs of the period on May 10th. There were no more that year.

In total 129 people lost their lives and 194 were injured during the campaign. This figure would nearly double when the next phase of the bombing, using V1 flying bombs and V2 rockets, would begin three years later in June 1944.

It is hard to imagine how people coped with the constant barrage of bombs during the Blitz. What seems to get lost in articles and historical texts I’ve read is just how grim the weather was at the time – remember this was a time before central heating. Not only were bedrooms freezing cold people must have laid there wondering if they were going to see morning.

It seems to be a human condition that when we are faced with adversity we just find a way of ‘getting on with it’ as best we can.

This graph shows how much colder the weather was at the time of the Blitz compared with the period September 2014 - May 2015 — This graph shows how much colder the weather was at the time of the Blitz compared with the period September 2014 – May 2015

Wanstead and the surrounding area is shown to be peppered with bombs on the website http://bombsight.org/ but many of the accounts listed in Tiquet's book are not listed — Wanstead and the surrounding area is shown to be peppered with bombs on the website http://bombsight.org/ but many of the accounts listed in Tiquet’s book are not listed

* Much of the inspiration for this blog comes thanks to the book It Happened Here by Stanley Tiquet. The book is available for loan and can be purchased at Redbridge libraries.

Events, History, Rainfall, weatherlore

Fading faith in St Swithin

July 14, 2015 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

Legend has it that the weather on St Swithin’s will be the same for the next 40 days.

St Swithin’s day, if thou dost rain,
For forty days it will remain;
St Swithin’s day, if thou be fair,
For forty days ’twill rain na mair.

St Swithin’s Day is probably among the most well known of weather folklore – but, taken at face value, it is probably the most unreliable.

Grasslands around Wanstead Park have gradually turned brown because of the lack of rainfall since March

Since 1848 Wanstead and the surrounding region has enjoyed 93 dry St Swithin’s Days (56%). From these the longest dry spell that followed was just 18 days, in 2000. On average, if St Swithin’s is dry, the weather stays fair for 3 days, with rain arriving on the 18th. Many dry St Swithin’s Days (17%) are followed by rain the next day – these results skew the median for rain after a dry St Swithin’s to just 2 days!

Another interesting observation is that the 40-day period that followed a dry St Swithin’s is on average 13% WETTER than if it rained on July 15th.

So what does this mean for the rest of July and the summer? Looking back at other years that have seen a mostly dry and warm pattern in the run up to St Swithin’s Day we should see a continuation of frequently dry, warm and sunny conditions, interspersed with rainy days and, perhaps, thundery breakdowns. A typical British summer!

Putting superstition and singularities aside current weather models back this up.

St Swithun's reputation as a weather saint is said to have arisen from the translation of his body from a lowly grave to its golden shrine within Winchester cathedral, having been delayed by incessant rain for 40 days — St Swithin’s reputation as a weather saint is said to have arisen from the translation of his body from a lowly grave to its golden shrine within Winchester cathedral, having been delayed by incessant rain for 40 days

St Swithin was born around 800AD and died on July 2, 862, at Winchester, Hampshire. According to historians he was fond of building churches in places where there were none. St Swithin, who was bishop of Winchester, was buried in the churchyard of the Old Minster at Winchester, where passers by might tread on his grave and where the rain from the eaves might fall on it.

His reputation as a weather saint is said to have arisen from the translation of his body from this lowly grave to its golden shrine within the cathedral, having been delayed by incessant rain for 40 days.

The basis of the St Swithin’s saying follows the fact that by July 15th summer weather patterns are already well established and tend to persist through the coming weeks.

In meterological terms the position of the frontal zone around the end of June to early July, indicated by the position of the jet stream, determines the general weather patterns (hot, cold, dry, wet) for the rest of the summer. Like a little stream in its bed, the frontal zone tends to ‘dig in’ shortly after the summer solstice.

As the path of our weather systems is controlled by the jet stream, a more southerly location of the frontal zone – as happened last year – is likely to bring unsettled, wet and cool weather. On the other hand, a frontal zone shifted further to the north – as is happening this year – will help the Azores high to build over western Europe, thus bringing dry and pleasant weather to the UK.

Other western European countries also have similar St Swithin’s day sayings – that follow the principle rule. In France they say ‘Quand il pleut a la Saint Gervais Il pleut quarante jours apres’ – If it rains on St. Gervais’ day (July 19th), it will rain for fourty days afterward.
In Germany the Siebenschlaefer or seven sleepers day (July 7th, after the Gregorian calendar) refers to the weather patterns of the following seven weeks.