The media are always keen to say ‘a heatwave is on the way’ when it is more likely to just be a short spell of fine weather with temperatures a few degrees above average.
The Daily Express, which usually goes over-the-top when there is any sign of heat on the horizon, has been relatively quiet of late
Forecasts of 30C and above see editors up and down the land reaching for their stock pics of office workers and kids enjoying ice creams in parks.
‘Hotter than the Costas’ and other hackeneyed headlines are wheeled out as photos of scantily-clad women frolicking in the sea at Brighton illustrate this amazing fact – the more ubiquitous shirtless lorry drivers on the capital’s roads never seem to make the final editions.
So how do you quantify a heatwave? Even in an average year the UK normally sees at least one spell of very warm weather that can often feel much warmer than it actually is.
Looking at data for the London area stretching back to the early 1800s there has been plenty of hot spells, including the summer of 1808 where birds reportedly ‘dropped out of the sky’ from heat exhaustion.
The term ‘heatwave’ does not appear in any publication in the British Newspaper Archive until 1867. The Manchester Courier and Lancashire General Advertiser on May 11th 1867 features a letter from Mr R.H. Allnatt. Writing from the British Hotel, Jersey, he states that “…the atmosphere became most oppressive. A heat-wave seems to have passed over the island, and from noon till sunset the thermometer stood in shade at 90 deg.”
The World Meteorological Organization’s description of a heatwave is “when the daily maximum temperature on more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5°C, the normal period being 1961-1990″. Though it has no official definition the UK Met Office, working with the Department of Health, provides a ‘Heat-Health Watch System’ for England which is triggered when a threshold temperature in the South East is 31°C by day and 16°C overnight for at least two consecutive days.
A mean daily temperature of 23.5°C or higher has been achieved in this area on 199 days since 1852. To qualify for the Met Office’s Heat-Health Watch System the list, which goes back 163 years, narrows. However, to make my job easier, I have narrowed the list further to 3 consecutive days where the mean has been 23.5°C or higher. Though I loathe really hot weather in my experience I can put up with it for a couple of days. It is only when it gets to the third day of hot, sleepless nights that it starts becoming unbearable.
The 500mb renanalysis chart of the heatwave of August 1876
The first heatwave that fits my parameters, and ranks 7th in the heatwave premier league, began on August 13th 1876. Obviously in those days news would have taken a while to filter through. On the front page but tucked away at the bottom of the far right column of Reynolds’s Newspaper on August 20th a report talked on “excessive heat in Norfolk”:
“The weather has been intensely hot in Norfolk, and two fatal cases of sunstroke are reported from Blofield. A similar casualty occurred at Thorndon. A spark from a Great Eastern Railway engine has fired a barley field near Wherstead, Suffolk, in consequence of the extreme drought. The damage done is estimated at £300.”
A report on the “Glorious Twelfth” in the London Daily News on Monday 14th says:
“Not a cloud obscured the burning rays of the sun, and in the middle hours of the day moving about on the moor was not unattended with danger.” The weather was the complete opposite of the previous two years where “rain fell so continuously that only the keenest of the keen ventured abroad”.
500mb reanalysis of the 1893 heatwave
It would be another 26 years before Greenwich would see another heatwave of the same magnitude. Tucked away on page 16 of Lloyd’s Weekly Newspaper on Sunday 20th August 1893 a national round-up column spoke of ‘The Excessive Heat’ of the past week of that heatwave which ranks 11th in the league of heatwaves.
“A farmer, named Calvert, of Barlow, died of sunstroke on Tuesday whilst engaged in harvest work. A man named George Wight fell down in the street at Birmingham on Tuesday, and was taken to the hospital, where it was stated that he was suffering from sunstroke. The intense heat had a remarkable effect on the temperature of the sea in the Channel. A Sandwich correspondent said the water was the warmest it had been for 25 years.”
Several cases of sunstroke were recorded among soldiers from Plymouth Garrison. A regiment from West Riding were ordered off parade while some regiments took the unprecedented step of parading in shirtsleeves. An engine-driver, when running the express into Stoke station, became seriously ill and died directly after his admission to hospital. His death is attributed to the intense heat. Harvesters in Ashford, Kent, also downed tools after a fatality and several cases of sunstroke.
National newspapers of the day took a broader view of proceedings. The Daily Telegraph‘s assumption on the cause of the heatwave and prognosis of conditions was actually better than it is today.
“Not more than twice or thrice in the present century probably has heat as intense and persistent as that now registered been experienced in England. Since Saturday, when announced the formation of an anticyclone over the British islands, there has been a nearly constant and slowly progressive increase of temperature, until yesterday the maximum thermometric reading of the year so far was attained, 90 degrees in the shade being recorded at the Meteorological Office, Westminster.”
The Times on the same day remarked on how people were dealing with the intense heat:
“Such is the force of habit that the social mechanism still keeps working, though nobody really cares for anything except the heat. In the shops, in the Stock Exchange, even in Parliament, people meet and go through the form of doing business, but their langour tells its own story — that the sun has been too much for them.”
The paper describes a “great thunderstorm that had kept everyone in the south of England awake a week earlier” that was assumed to have been the end of a hot summer. But the heat built again.
“Sunday was one of the most exhausting days in human memory; and Tuesday and yesterday, at all events in London, were days to be remembered and quoted. Nothing more like a Italian scirocco has ever been felt here than the west wind which blew at midday yesterday. Very scientific thermometers, indeed, pretend that the heat was nothing exceptional, but the skin, the brain, and the temper of the average man told a different story.”
It would appear that the return of the heatwave took forecasters by surprise and the paper continues on with a familiar ‘why weren’t we warned’ tone:
“And the worst was that the forecast, to which our excellent Meteorological Office has taught us to look with so much confidence, promised quite other things. It spoke of weather unsettled, thundery, and showery later,” and in the north it promised ” westerly and varying breezes; changeable, showery, thundery, cooler. “What tricks were the barometers playing ? Was Ben Nevis having its little joke, or was the office itself suffering from sunstroke?”
On its front page on Saturday, August 19th, The Yorkshire Evening Post featured a prominent sketch of a City gent Picture courtesy of the British Newspaper Archive
The Daily Chronicle turned its editorial attentions to the “alarming” effects the heat was having on peoples’ attire
“The social effects began to operate at an early stage at Westminster, on temper as well on habiliments. They have now penetrated that last refuge of conventional respectability, the City, where the chimney-pot de rigueur has been dethroned by the straw of comfort, and the waistcoat has actually disappeared before the coloured silk scarf.”
The paper reports of people falling ill with fever in the heat, possibly caused by water supply. While the Thames, thanks to reforms by the County Council, was not smelling Glaswegians close to the Clyde were not so fortunate, the river being “overpoweringly odorous all the summer”.
“We must grin and bear it, as may. We shall grumble when the temperature falls, pretty much as we are doing now. For, Macanlay somewhere says, man is never satisfied with what he has, but is always straining after what he has not. And this is particularly true of Britons and their weather.”
Little is written of the 17th ranked 1906 heatwave that ran from August 31st to September 2nd though a diary note on page 3 of the Portsmouth Evening News on Thursday 6th September said the effect of the heat proved decidedly detrimental to education in Portsmouth. It reports:
“Not that the attendance has fallen off to any appreciable extent as result of the very trying weather, but its effect has been very marked, nevertheless, as the youngsters have proved very heavy and slack, with the result that the lot has been decidedly trying.”
The glorious summer of 1911, surprisingly, did not produce a spell that would satisfy my heatwave criteria.
August 9th, 1911, saw the first incident of 100F (37.8C) being recorded in London. The record beat the previous high on 97F. The report also makes mention that many areas recorded at least 97F
The season, which produced hot weather throughout July and August, is worthy of mention, however, because August 9th saw the first occasion 100°F was recorded in London. Considering the magnitude of this milestone the media of the day seemed reluctant to go overboard with the coverage, simply reporting the facts. The day after the hottest day ever the Dundee Evening Post had some advice on attire for hot weather, including a reported sighting of Keir Hardie in a “duck suit”.
By 1923, a heatwave that placed 14th, reports were going beyond records of temperature and heat-related deaths. On July 16th a reader of the Gloucester Citizen was bemoaning the fact that visitors to London were being subjected to “heatwave profiteering”.
Ice was in short supply and only available in restaurants and cafes and the price of fruit and salad had risen “beyond reason”. The author writes:
“A Fleet Street shop, for example, lemons have suddenly risen from a modest penny to a more formidable threepence, and the explanation is: “There has been an eruption at Etna, you know”. “To point out that the present stock of lemons was received long before Etna began to make its dangerous influences felt is merely to invite a shrug of the shoulders and gesture indicating “take it or leave it.”
The London Letter column in the Hull Daily Mail on Friday 13th July mentions MP’s braving the stifling heat to hear Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin’s statement on European policy, and also “London The Boil”.
“The heat wave continues to keep in its fiery grip. It absolutely dominates the daily lives of our seven million population, whose habits are rapidly approximating to those much nearer the equator. Hyde Park ladies fashionably attired may be seen sitting under sunshades beneath the shadiest trees in their stockinged feet. Their shoes rest beside them on the parched grass.”
“In Fleet Street there has been a long queue, as nondescript as an old-time butter queue during the war ration period, outside a shop where ice cream wafers are sold at the rate of about two hundred a minute. Men are wearing white suits, waistcoats have vanished, straw hats are at a premium. Most of the licensed bars are doing little more than pussyfoot trade in long iced teetotal drinks. An actor appearing in SoThis is London, says that he gets home half-an-hour earlier nowadays. Though the theatre is quite well filled, the audience is too hot to applaud. So the show goes slick through.”
The column, written decades before the advent of air conditioned comfort became the norm, also gives advice on where to keep cool in the capital. Previous favourites had included the cold-storage warehouses along the riverside at Blackfriars Bridge, the Monument and Westminster’s “Byzantine” tower.
“I am quite certain the coolest place in London is in a boat under the stone bridge that spans the Serpentine. Scores of overheated Londoners seek these cool arches. There, if you can crush in, you may smoke a cigarette, in almost too chilly comfort, while London boils just outside.”
The Yorkshire Evening Post on Friday, August 29th 1930 Image courtesy of British Newspaper Library
The heatwave of August 27th – 29th 1930, which ranks 15th,produced another interesting ‘London Letter’ column in the Portsmouth Evening News about too-hot cabs and heatwave profiteering: a greengrocer raising the price of lemons from 1d to 13d, despite there being crates available in storerooms!
This ‘Sainsbury & Son’ advert appeared on p7 of The Bucks Herald on Friday, August 19th, 1932
Two years later and newspapers were reporting the ‘hottest day for a generation’. The heatwave of August 18th – 20th August 1932 saw the temperature reach 99°F (37.2°C). This heatwave ranks 9th.
“Tragedies attributable to the heatwave were reported from all parts the kingdom yesterday. From the provinces 14 heat deaths were notified. Three cases of suicide which the Paddington coroner said were attributable to the effects of the intense heat and ill health were subjects of inquests Paddington yesterday afternoon.”
The Leicester Chronicle reported cases of heat exhaustion and the curious sight of people carrying home butter in jugs while the 7.25pm and 7.30pm express trains from King’s Cross to the Western Highlands had shower baths installed in sleeping cars to help passengers cope with the heat.
The heatwave of August 6th – August 8th 1947, which ranks 18th, was sparsely reported save for the usual heat stroke casualty stories and the fact that Cheltenham recorded 11 hours of sunshine on one sweltering day.
By 1948 signs of a move away from straight reporting of heatwaves were beginning to appear. An Hour in the Heatwave, a report taken during the hot spell of July 28th – 30th, ranked 12th, was published in the Essex Newsman.
The reporter, Gilbert Saunders, gave a simple but highly readable account of people going about their daily life in the heat.
“In the stadium The other side of the river, where Chelmsford have their stadium, Ted Boxall, private builder, was getting on with a job that he started on Wednesday and hopes to finish by today. He is making a surround and small archway for the counter over which cups of tea are passed to directors and guests in the board room under the grandstand. Ted (who asked : “You’re not mistaking me for Mr. Rowe, are you?”) was surrounded with litter of Essex boarding and sawdust. He paused to wipe a hot brow, explained that he does “lots of odd jobs” for the club. Ted gets a hand from the players when its needed. Earlier this week he finished off two sets of concrete steps, one each side of the grandstand, so that fans will be able to get on the raised ground without having to scramble up the sides of a small mountain of ash and clinkers.”
An hour in the heatwave, published in the Essex Newsman – Friday 30th July 1948
“On the Corner At London Road corner, his face red from the heat but bearing the everpresent grin, Special Constable Thorn clicked and swivelled his 6ft 3in and kept the traffic moving, all unaware that the next day’s Essex Chronicle was already printing a letter suggesting that his courtesy, service, and goodwill should be rewarded with the Freedom of Chelmsford.”
“In the Newspaper Office And inside the building of the Essex Chronicle, Norman White, bespectacled family man, sat down at the side of the roaring press and took a bite at some sandwiches. The first of seven editions was streaming out. “Ought to be pretty early tonight,” he shouted above the din. “With luck we should all be away between half-past nine and ten …… “
The Aberdeen Journal, in its edition published on Friday 30th July, reported on conditions in London and how the population was coping (or not!) with the heat:
“The metropolis last night was like a large restless household—with all the lights ablaze, doors and windows thrown open, the family fretful, and endless pots of tea brewing far into this morning.
“Perhaps one in ten among the 8,000,000 of us slept after midnight. For the rest, we tossed and turned and saw out this heatwave night, when temperatures were never below 71 degrees, a variety of ways. About midnight I walked past the gaunt old Edwardian mansions in Kensington. With the exception the lights that burned from every window, the scene was reminiscent of the early days of the Blitz.
“Families trekked across the roadway in varying stages of undress to their little bits of ornamental gardens. With them went camp beds, bed linen, umbrellas, “in case,” the children, and the household pets, choose a cool open-air camping spot and feel wonderfully adventurous and spartan in the process.”
Yorkshire Evening Post – Thursday 14 August 1947
“At regular intervals the adolescent members of the squatting colonies were dispatched to the tea and coffee stalls on the corner, and perhaps for the first time in years these traders ran out of stocks. On the Kensington-Chelsea boundary, where life becomes noticeably less inhibited and on occasions less swish, a mixed group of young artists was sleeping on the pavement off Fulham Road.
“Round the next corner, where many theatrical and film stars live, several had slung hammocks on their meagre front lawns – one actually suspended between the bathroom windows of two adjacent houses. Midnight street wear for both sexes was cool if unconventional —silk pyjamas, bath robes, tennis shorts, and one in kilt and bathing costume top who could have gone straight into the arena at Lonach.”
The column goes on to describe the situation in the House of Commons where the heat had reached “almost Turkish bath intensity”.
“Some members were in natty tussore silk suitings, but this helped little, and it was many of their number who appealed to the Speaker to have more windows opened. The Speaker, panting like the rest of us, said they were all open. If they wanted more cool breezes from the Thames, members would have to smash the windows.”
More evidence of reportage became evident during the June 1952 heatwave which ranks 8th.
A report on life in the heatwave published on July 5th 1952 Image courtesy of the British Newspaper Archive
Peter Chambers, of the Evening Express, wrote:
“London is hot. It is going to get hotter. That merry mercury column is poking up into the eighties already. That’s what faces us at the height of a heatwave.
“Bus tyres sizzle on the melted tarmac in the streets. At office windows, the girls are pattering away at their typrewriters with damp, discouraged fingers.
“It’s a scorcher. Even the sparrows are panting.”
The reporter describes the scene at London Bridge at 9.30am: “Well, as I came over London Bridge with the 9.30 surge of sweltering suburbia, a bus conductor hopped off his traffic-jammed vehicle and grabbed a couple of ice chips off a Billingsgate lorry. One for him, one for the driver. “What I want, mate,” said the driver ungratefully, “is a ‘ole block of the freezin’ stuff – to sit on.” That is the male reaction to the heatwave.
“The female reaction is typified by the secretary in this office, who buzzes off to the ladies’ room every half-hour to atomise herself with eau de cologne. Ever since she read that fragrant publicity handout, which said “It’s not enough, girls, NOT to be hot and sticky, you’ve got to smell NICE-TO-BE-NEAR…”
The author takes a walk past Embankment and up to Trafalgar Square: “The girls are in topless frocks. Even the men have got their jackets off – a sight abhored further east, where the rigid convention of the City demands that you sweat it out in your dark worsted, regardless.”
At 1pm he finds foreigners feeding the pigeons by Nelson’s Columns and Londoners feeding themselves on bags of strawberries priced at 1/9. By 3pm he’d made it to the Serpentine Lido along with 3,000 other people. He describes at like “Margate on a Bank Holiday”.
The summer of 1959 was glorious but many cool nights saw the season fall short of my 23.5C threshold. It would be a long time before summers were nice again.
The top 6 of my league of heatwaves are all occupied by much more recent events, including 1976 and 1990, both of which are dealt with in the blog I wrote last year – 50 years of London heatwaves. The heatwave that topped them all, in terms of sheer intensity and produced the UK’s hottest day ever, happened in 2003.
I have vague memories of the weeks of sunshine in 1976 but the hot spells that stick in my mind the most are August 1990, when the UK temperature record was set in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, and August 2003 when an 8-day hot spell saw the all-time UK temperature record broken when 38.5C was reached at Brogdale, near Faversham, Kent.
In terms of length, heat and sunshine, therefore, 2003 comes out on top. Though many people will argue that 1976 is the more impressive summer that year produced two spells that satisfy my criteria, coming in second and fifth. The first heatwave saw temperatures soar above 31° C for six consecutive days from June 23. The start of the second, on July 3, saw Bjorn Borg win the first of five Wimbledon mens’ titles as he prevailed over Ilie Nastase in 35°C heat. The summer of 1995, which saw my driest-ever August with just 0.7mm of rainfall all month, comes in 3rd, with six days of mean temperatures of 23.5°C or higher.
Looking back through history it is not really surprising that 2003 comes out on top. While it was hot in London the heatwave across the Channel contributed to the death of over 70,000 people throughout Europe, France being the most affected.
A complete set of 500mb reanalysis charts have been uploaded and can be watched as a GIF movie
* There were hot spells before 1852 but I have excluded these: Luke Howard’s maxima observations from Plaistow, Stratford and Tottenham were taken under non-standard conditions and may be on the high side. I have instead focused my investigation on data recorded at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich.
** For some reason the data during a couple of years in the 1950s was incomplete – to fill in these gaps I used official data gathered at Kew. The data is completed up to the present day using my own observations taken since 1988.
*** As already mentioned prior to these dates data is unreliable as conditions for collection were not strictly controlled. However, there are many records of extreme heat. On Sunday, August 1, 1868, the Gloucester Journal published a report on the “Heat of previous years” detailing an account of hot spells going back to 1806. “Mr. G. J. Symons gives a number of interesting particulars in reference the heat of previous seasons in this country. We abstract the following
1806: Very hot in parts of June and July. At Plaistow the temperature was 95 degrees on June 10th, and 90 degrees or upwards on three days.
1808: Very hot from July 12th to 19th. On the 12th a thermometer in perfect shade in a window in St James’s Park was 81.5 degrees at 3pm, and on the 13th at the same hour, 94 degrees. On the same day four men and seven women were killed by sunstroke in various parts of the Midland counties, and numerous coach and other horses were also killed. On the 15th a very violent and destructive thunderstorm in Gloucestershire, Monmouthshire, and surrounding counties.
1818:July a very hot month. At Tottenham on the 24th Luke Howard registered 93 degrees at Somerset House on the same day it was 89 degrees, and in the Strand 87 degrees at noon. The mean temperature of that day at Greenwich was 79.2 degrees, which was higher than any other day between 1814 and 1863. The following paragraph appeared in the Gentleman’s Magazine for September, 1818: “It is worthy of remark that the heat of the present summer has been universal. From the north to the south of Europe the heat has been greater and more lasting than for 40 years On July 24th the thermometer here (where!) was 98 degrees, which had never been reached except on July 16th, 1793. At Paris July 31st it was 93 degrees and at Philadelphia 100 degrees.” From 19th to 21st violent thunderstorms in the west of England.
1825: July remarkable, if not unique, in its constant and excessive temperature. At Stratford Luke Howard registered 90 degrees or upwards on seven days, the highest being 97 degrees on the 18th.
1826: The heat was very great. In May the thermometer reached 76 degrees, June 92, July 89, August 85. Two men were killed by sunstroke near London. The fields were as brown as the roads. After two months’ drought the rivulets were gone, and many of the wells dry. The hay crop was deficient from long drought. Country is parched, and corn in some places, though only a few inches above ground, was shooting into ear. Several hills and moors caught fire. In Worcestershire the excessive heat and drought almost wholly destroyed the pasturage, and trees were lopped to feed the cattle.
1846: July 5 was very hot, 93.3 degrees being registered at Greenwich, and 94 degrees at Clapham (94 degrees has been recorded there again in the only other instance at that station.
1852: July of this wet year was remarkably hot, the mean monthly temperature (66.6 degrees) having only been exceeded by July 1778 when it was 67 degrees; and July 1859 when it was 68.1 degrees. Tho extreme heat, however, was only 90.3 degrees at Greenwich.
1857: On June 28, 92.7 deg. was recorded at Greenwich.
1858: June was a very hot day, 94.5 degrees being reached at Greenwich.
1859: Temperatures of 92, 92.5, and 93.0 degrees were recorded at Greenwich.”
The Battle of Waterloo and Wanstead are not often mentioned in the same sentence. However, with the marking of the 200th anniversary I have been noticing more and more reminders of the Duke around the area’s roads.
The Dukes Head on Wood Street, Walthamstow, is another reminded of Wellington who was placed 15th in the BBC’s 100 Greatest Britons
As well as Wellington Road we have Wellesley Road which, I would imagine, planners named in honour of Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington, rather than his feckless nephew, William Pole Tylney Long-Wellesley, who frittered away the fortune of his wife, Catherine Tylney-Long, heiress to an estate that included Wanstead House.
It is noted that Long-Wellesley celebrated his uncle’s victory with a fair in the grounds of Wanstead House. Though the park was later left devastated by the clearance of thousands of trees, sold to help clear Long-Wellesley’s debts, it is interesting that a line of oaks, estimated to be 200 years’ old this year, stand in a line close to The Temple. I wonder if these were planted to mark Wellington’s victory?
Wellington, who was recently voted the 15th Greatest Briton in the BBC poll, must have enjoyed Churchillian popularity following the victory over Napolean. But, according to many historians, the battle was a close-run thing – some historians have said that heavy rain on the eve of the battle helped Wellington’s defensive battle policy against Napolean’s aggressive tactics.
The synoptic chart for 18 June 1815 shows that a low and fronts havecleared the southern Belgian region leaving drier and fresher conditions over the battlefield Image courtesy of Weather, the Royal Meteorological Society magazine and Wiley
Scientists have been able to map the weather conditions of the battle that was taking place 200 miles to Wanstead’s south-east. Weather conditions in Wanstead for the day, according to Luke Howard were: “Maximum: 74F, minimum: 51F, hygrometer 52%, wind: SW, rain in the night, rather cloudy.”
He makes a comment about a solar observation – the figure 28 has been seen on the surface of the sun: “There is now on the sun’s disk the most extraordinary configuration of macula or spots that ever was seen. They present, when viewed through an astronomical or inverting telescope, the exact resemblance of the figures 28. If viewed through an erect telescope they will of course appear inverted but equally distinct; the 2 in particular is perfectly formed.”
A full scientific explanation of the Battle of Waterloo can be found on the following link
This summer is looking an average one. Before you write it off, however, average summers do come with decent spells of warmth and sunshine. But I think the old saying that an English summer consists of three fine days and a thunderstorm will be used more than once this year…
To reach my conclusion on this summer I have used pattern matching of meteorological data from this area for March, April and May stretching back to 1799.
The dry and sunny weather of March and April was tempered by a very average May. The mean for the spring season was 10.5C with 75.8mm of rain and 511 hours of sunshine.
If you take into account all years that were within +/- 10 per cent of these figures, for rainfall and then mean temperature, you get the following table.
The ‘best fit’ years were revealed as 1844, 1870, 1880, 1943, 1995, and 2009. As an average this summer could be expressed as: Mean: 17.4C (about average) Rainfall: 127.3mm (below average) Sunshine: 567hrs (about average)
Or, expressed in probabilities, I concluded the following:
Very Warm ( above 20.4) 0%
Warm (19.4 – 20.3) 0%
Rather warm (18.4-19.3) 17%
Average (16.9C – 18.3C) 50%
Rather Cool (15.9 – 16.8) 33%
Cool (14.9 – 15.8) 0%
Very cool (below 14.8C) 0%
Very Wet ( 3.8 x average) 0%
Wet (2.9 x average) 0%
Rather wet (1.9 x average) 0%
Average 50%
Rather dry (0.7 x average) 33%
Dry (0.5x average) 17%
Very dry (0.25 x average) 0%
So from the above you could deduce that the next three months will be average to rather cool, with average to slightly below average rainfall. Sunshine average.
Trying to predict daily detail over the next 3 months is impossible, but looking at the ‘best fit’ years mentioned above it is probable that the opening 10 days of June will be among the coolest of the summer.
Of interest to most will be when are the hot spells most likely to happen. Considering the median of all rain days a dry spell happened without fail between the dates of June 28th – June 30th and August 15th – August 19th; both these spells likely ending with thundery breakdowns. Another date to bear in mind for a possible two-day fine spell is July 24th-25th.
So, all-in-all, a mixed bag. Looking at the ‘best-fit’ years, however, it is worthwhile noting that although the overall picture looks average there exists the record-breaking dry August of 1995 and the notably wet and thundery July of 1880.
My summer forecast last year was broadly correct. How this one will fair obviously only time will tell. One could argue that what I’m forecasting is just climatology which has a good chance of being correct should no external influences, such as a huge eruption on Mount Etna, have a bearing on the end result.
* Taking into account the fact that temperatures in London are up to 0.66C warmer than they were 100 years ago I have added 0.66C to mean temperatures before 1915.
** Obviously, in the event of a series of direct hits from thunderstorms, my rainfall estimate could be hopelessly short – a symptom of abundant solar energy at this time of year which creates a ‘noisy’ atmosphere compared with winter.
*** The 1981-2010 average mean for summer in this region is 17.6C, with 144.9mm of rain and 564 hours of sunshine
After a sunny and dry April last month was disappointing for anyone looking for prolonged heat and sunshine. Indeed the month saw nearly two dozen less hours of sunshine than April.
During a very thundery day nationwide on 19th it was bright and sunny looking west on Southwark Bridge at 3.40pm…
Maximum temperatures were low for May – the highest being just 23.3C on 11th, 2C colder than the highest temperature in April.
Mean temperature for the month was 13.4C, 0.3C above the 1981-2010 mean. Rainfall of 38.9mm was 76% of average – six of the last seven Mays have been notably dry.
There were 178.5 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is 98% of what we can expect to see during an average May. The wettest day occurred on the 4th with 8.2mm.
So what has June got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (June 1st) suggest a very unsettled start to the month before the Azores high builds a ridge to quieten things down for a couple of days. Beyond that is uncertain – the ensembles point to a very mixed picture with no clear trend shown to where we might be in a fortnight’s time.
Looking east was a different story which revealed a distant thunderstorm
Looking at the month as a whole my long range method suggests June will be average in terms of temperature: 54% probability. The next highest chance is for rather cool at 15% probability. If you add the probabilities together the chance of average to below average temperature is 85% – which would seem to rule out a ‘very warm’ month…
Rainfall is looking average to slightly above average, though at only 62% probability. It looks like another broadly average month in terms of sunshine.
So with a slightly changeable start to the month we can look forward to another average month without prolonged heatwaves?
My May outlook was good in that it saw the high chance (80%) of average temperatures. I was, however, out with the low rainfall – the signal was for something greater than average. Sunshine, as already mentioned, was also out – my forecast was for something 1.2 above average.
May 19th was a very thundery day across eastern England. This picture was taken looking east from Southwark
1st: Sunny start but cloud quickly filled in. Though cloudy it remained bright. Cold wind.
2nd: Cloudy start but becoming brighter. Turned to hazy sun at 3.30pm but then turned cloudier. Rain by early hours, 5am and then again at 8.30am.
3rd: Cloudy after early rain then growing warm and muggy with sunshine at 2pm. It stayed bright and muggy into the evening.
4th: Sunny start then haze and cumulus soon thickened before clearing to sunny spells early lunchtime. Cloud built up again at 2pm. Rain spread in early evening with heavy bursts from 11pm to 1.30am – heaviest at midnight.
5th Cloudy start but becoming brighter albeit very windy through the morning and past lunchtime. Occasional showers with very heavy shower at 6am.
6th: Cloudy start with brighter interludes but turning very blustery with occasional light showers. These turned heavier through the day with a notable one at 2pm. Thunder heard at 5pm with more showers.
7th: Sunny start but with lots of cloud bubbling up
Wanstead was hit head-on by a thunderstorm at 2pm on 19th, clearly shown on this radar picture. Because the storms were fast moving rainfall accumulation was not remarkable
8th: Bright start after early light shower. Spots of rain during bright afternoon – these turned heavier at 3.30pm. Cloudy and mild overnight.
9th: Bright, slightly breezy start. Spells of very warm sunshine though also odd spots of rain during showers.
10th: Bright start with sunny spells through the day
11th: Bright start with altocumulus. Cloud broke to sunny spells though sky was very hazy at times. Feeling humid. Warm overnight but short, sharp shower moved in 10 minutes before obs time.
12th: Light rain to start from a frontal feature. This clearing to sunny spells and pleasant afternoon
13th: Sunny with few cirrus to start. More cloud bubbling up later. Clear at first overnight before cloud and light rain moved in before 9am.
14th: Cloudy but spits and spots of rain spread in, before more steady light rain at 10.30. This eased at noon before becoming heavier again at 3.30pm and rained into evening, easing up at midnight.
15th: Sunny start though cloud tended to fill in. Some rain around midnight
16th: Cloudy start though got progressively sunnier as cold front cleared, humidity fell and cloud melted away. Very pleasant. Cool overnight.
17th: Sunny, clear start with a few cirrus. Cloudier at times but still sunny spells. VERY breezy with f4/5 headwinds on ride to station. Rapidly changing skies with wind shear.
18th: Some light rain to start, this intermittent through the morning.
19th: Bright and breezy start. T-storm developed at 2.30pm but moved through quickly. Was two more, at 5pm and 7pm – notable rises in pressure as troughs moved through.
20th: Bright start. Light shower bubbled up late afternoon.
21st: Sunny start, cloud gradually filled in though.
22nd: Bright start with sunny spells. Warm.
23rd: Cloudy with a very thick layer of strato-cumulus making it dull. Two hours of light rain and drizzle followed but cleared to leave it bright with a couple of sunny intervals in the evening. It felt humid at first but turned much fresher once the drizzle cleared.
24th: Sunny start though cloud filling in to make it bright. Frontal light rain between 3 and 5pm.
25th: Cloudy most of the day, a few bright intervals though spits and spots of drizzle early evening.
26th: Sunny start with fluffy cumulus. Pleasant.
27th: Dry, warm and sunny all day. Heavy rain in York from 3pm to 8pm. Felt chilly in the wind.
28th: Dry, lots of cloud around
29th: Dry start though rain moved in between 11am and 1pm. Then sunny spells and breezy.
30th: Sunny though soon clouded over before clearing again to sunny spells. Mackerel sky observed at 8.30pm. Rain between 2.15am and 6.30am.
31st: Light rain to start with outbreaks throughout the morning. Some brightness mid to late afternoon.
April showers bring spring flowers – or so the saying goes. The month was actually sunny and very dry with less than 50% of what falls in a normal month.
The cold nights and often chilly days helped to preserve spring blossom, with some stunning displays on streets around the borough.
Indeed just one day, the 30th, was what you could say was a classic April day – a sunny, clear morning saw convection build towering cumulus clouds with a light shower around lunchtime.
Mean temperature for the month was 10.6C, 0.8C above the 1981-2010 mean, over 1C cooler than April last year. Rainfall of 18.9mm was 45% of average – six of the last seven Aprils have been notably dry.
There were 201 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is 126% of what we can expect to see during an average April. The wettest day occurred on the 25th with 4.7mm. Air frosts: 5 Ground frosts: 13
So what has May got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (May 1st) suggest next days remain unchanged with troughs moving NE across the UK over the weekend introducing warmer air with a mix of sunshine and showers following. A new LP looks like developing over western France on Monday becoming absorbed in the main low to the west of the UK bringing a more sustained westerly feed ahead of rising pressure from the south later toward the weekend, bringing fine and summery conditions. The risk of rain should decrease as the week goes on.
Beyond that the outlook, as ever, is uncertain.
My long range method suggests the month will be average in terms of temperature: 80% probability. The next highest chance is for rather mild at 20% probability. Rainfall is looking average to slightly below average, though at only 60% probability. It looks like another sunny month is in prospect – 80% probability of sunshine at 1.2 times the mean.
So with a slightly changable start to the month we can look forward to another sunny, pleasant spring month without heatwaves?
Long spells of cirrus gave a solar halo on the 17th.
My April outlook was good in that it ruled out any chance of a very mild or very cold month. The combined probability of 72% for an average to rather mild month was correct. I was, however, completely off with the rainfall, the signal for which was greater than average
1st: Bright start but very breezy through the morning and afternoon. Rain after 11pm and again at 3.30am.
2nd: Bright start though sunny spells increased through the day. Felt really pleasant out by noon. Some rain in the early hours before obs time.
3rd: Cloudy through the day with some rain late afternoon.
4th: Cloudy all day though with some drizzly rain. Some brightness was seen on way in to South Kensington in the Whitechapel area.
5th: Cloudy, cold start but with sunny spells developing through the day. Pleasant in the sun.
6th: Sunny start with cloud building from time to time. Cloud cleared overnight to give a ground frost.
7th: Sunny start with long clear periods through the day.
8th: Cloudy start gradually cleared to hazy sunshine. Cloudier again in afternoon.
9th: Cloudy start though soon brightening up for a sunny day in town.
Typical April days of sunshine and showers were in short supply. There were some stunning sunsets, including this one on the 30th
10th: Cloudy start though cloud quickly thinned to leave sunny day. However, cloud was hazy at times with bad pollution seen over London. Also a few drops of rain were observed rain around edge of Ornamental Waters. Humid.
11th: Drizzle turned to moderate rain that was over in 45 minutes and cleared to sunny intervals, then longer sunny periods through the day. Much cooler than yesterday.
12th: Sunny start led to a day of long sunny spells. Sky was initially a deep blue but hazy cumulus built up after 4pm.
13th: Cloudy start, some brightness in the afternoon.
14th: Sunny, gin clear start. Sunny all day with light breeze taking edge off temp.
15th: Sunny, clear start for RMetS meeting. Slight breeze kept edge off temp. Some light clouds late afternoon. Cooling off quickly in early hours.
16th: Sunny spells in the morning.
17th: Sunny though long spells of cirrus gave a solar halo. Chilly in the wind.
18th: Sunny spells to start though cloud decreased to leave gin clear afternoon. Dew point dropped to 1.5C making it feel very chilly.
19th: Bright start but cloud quickly filled in leaving it feeling cold in the wind. Some sunshine after 5pm making it a pleasant if a bit cold in the wind evening.
20th: Sunny and mostly clear all day. Much warmer.
21st: Sunny and mostly clear all day. More contrails though. Chilly overnight again.
22nd: Sunny start though cloud filled in earlier than yesterday. Nowhere near as warm.
23rd: Cloudy start though the cloud decreased and was gin clear by 12.15pm.
24th: Sunny start although hazy at times. Cloud gradually increased late afternoon and light rain arrived 1am.
25th: Cloudy start though plenty of breaks in the cloud developed allowing for a pleasant afternoon.
26th: Slight drizzle to start then cloudy and cold all day. Cold overnight in clearer spells.
27th: Sunny start. Clouds bubbled up though the day with showers reported elsewhere. It threatened rain in Wanstead but stayed dry.
28th: Sunny start with just a few clouds through the day. Feeling cold though.
29th: Light rain to start though this suddenly cleared at 10.15am before clouding over again.
30th: Sunny start with clouds bubbling up. A light shower in Snaresbrook.
If the ash before the oak then we’re sure to get a soak.
The story behind the mature trees in Wanstead Park – several of which will turn 200 this year – is a fascinating one.
The park is virtually on my doorstep and it’s like watching a living painting as the trees change from season to season. Spring is my favourite time of year, as the character of the park transforms so quickly. Chalet Wood bursts into colour with a carpet of bluebells, and leaves once again clothe the trees.
Magnificent specimens of oak, horse chestnut, sycamore and holly stand alongside half-rotten victims of gales over the last 200-odd years. But despite storms and floods, the biggest nemesis to these trees was the former owner of the park, William Long-Wellesley. As well as demolishing Wanstead House in 1823 to help clear his debts, Long-Wellesley also sold thousands of mature trees, despite local opposition and a court injunction brought by Sir Edward Sugden, who was seeking to restrain Long-Wellesley’s depredations on his children’s inheritance.
A court report from the time states that Long-Wellesley had marked 2,000 trees for sale, which would have included hardwoods, such as oak, chestnut and elm and perhaps walnut and lime. To quantify that figure, it should be noted that the last full tree survey of the park, not including Bush Wood, in April 1990, listed just over 800 trees.
Richard Arnopp, committee member of the Friends of Wanstead Parklands, said: “There is general agreement that Long-Wellesley left the park more or less devastated, but the wooded areas subsequently regenerated within their former footprints, helped by later planting and management by the Corporation of London.”
It is not clear who bought the trees, though oak was especially valuable at the time for shipbuilding, which was still some decades away from the shift from timber to iron. Britain was at the end of the first Industrial Revolution and timber suitable for making masts, a crucial requirement for any sailing ship, and one that often had to be replaced after storms or wear, was difficult to find.
This graph shows the monthly mean temperature for the periods 1814-1825 (series 1, blue line) and 2004-2015 (series 2, orange line). Notice how much colder most winters were 1814-1825
It was also a cold period. Just over 10 years previous the Thames froze over for the last time and winters were frequently very cold and snowy. Wood was one of the principal methods of keeping warm – house fires would have been burning through the winter – anyone with a wood stove would know just how much wood you can get through, even in an average winter.
As well as selling timber, Long-Wellesley reportedly sold the topsoil of Wanstead Flats to nurseries as potting compost. Most of the mature trees in the park today would have been saplings in the 1820s, thus escaping the attention of Long-Wellesley. According to the Debois survey from 1990, the cedar tree near the Ornamental Water has this year reached its 200th birthday. Also 200 years old this year are the three magnificent oaks next to the Temple, one of which has increased in girth from 319cm to 372cm since 1990.
The trees were protected for future generations when the Epping Forest Act was passed in 1878. Since that time, the Corporation of London has managed their welfare and a new initiative will soon step up this care and reinstate even more of what was lost during Long-Wellesley’s tenure.
* There is much more detail at the site http://www.wansteadpark.org.uk/
** The author has studied forestry and arboriculture at Capel Manor College in Enfield
The saying March: in like a lion, out like a lamb and vice versa is frequently wrong. This March saw it windy at the beginning, end and middle of the month.
This graph shows the ‘wind run’ of every day in March. Notice how the peaks are at the beginning, middle and end of the month
Mean temperature for the month was 7.6C, 0.1C below the 1981-2010 mean, over 1C cooler than March last year. Rainfall of 17.9mm was 44% of average – four of the last five Marches have been notably dry.
There were 131.5 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is precisely 121% of what we can expect to see during an average March. The wettest day occurred on the 29th with 4.2mm. Hail fell on 1 day. Air frosts: 5 Ground frosts: 13
So what has april got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (April 1st) suggest a dominance of high pressure though there’s lots of uncertainty as to where this will drift once it has formed over the Easter weekend. If it moves north there is a risk of chilly easterly winds at times that will take the edge off temperatures.
Rainfall amounts will be small after the next couple of days though sunshine amounts will be reduced if we get the cold easterly feed off the continent. Beyond that the outlook, as ever, is uncertain.
My long range method suggests the month will be average in terms of temperature: 43% probability. The next highest chance is for rather mild at 29% probability. Rainfall is looking greater than average, though at 57% probability.
My March outlook was good in that it ruled out any chance of a very mild month. Though the signal was for a cold month overall I think the fact that Scandinavia and Russia had a relatively mild winter meant that the resulting overall temperature was far milder than it normally would have been, given the air flow.
1st: Sunny start with more cloud afternoon and a rain squall sweeping through at 5.30pm. Cold wind.
2nd: Sunny start though cold wind. Odd shower.
3rd: Sunny start but with cloudier periods and odd spot of rain up to 2pm. Skies turned really dark to the north but no reports of heavy rain. Cold overnight but no air frost due to the wind.
4th: Sunny spells with cloudier intervals.
5th: Sunny, frosty start. Cloud bubbling up with sun becoming scarcer.
6th: Sunny and clear with just a few cirrus.
7th: Sunny start, just a few cirrus though more breeze
8th: Sunny start though more clouds bubbling up than yesterday.
9th: Sunny start was quickly replaced by overcast conditions. Spots of rain on way into work – signs of something heavier when left work at midnight. Clear again by morning.
10th Sunny start with some cirrus type haze. Cloud bubbled up but sunnier than yesterday.
11th: Sunny start, cloud growing thicker through the day before a pink sunset. Some light rain before a clear night.
12th Sunny start and just a few clouds around. Cloud thicker in afternoon.
13th Hazy bright start though cloud thickened.
14th: Sunny start quickly turned cloudy and dull. More brightness in afternoon though cold wind. Early shower at 6.30am.
15th: Dull start into the morning. Some light rain late morning and during the afternoon. More rain after midnight and just beofre dawn.
16th: Cloudy start though with bright intervals in the afternoon. Area of light rain around 4am.
17th: Cloudy start with light rain spreading in. Brighter by 1pm though very misty on ride in to work. Misty again overnight.
18th: Cloudy, misty start though much more sunshine than yesterday on ride to Lea Valley. Cloudier overnight.
19th: Cloudy and dull all day, feeling cold – the cloud persisting into the evening.
20th; Cloudy start for the eclipse. The sky cleared about 12.30pm to leave bright sunshine and a pleasant, springlike afternoon. Early ground frost before sky clouded over.
21st: Cloudy but some spots of drizzle mid-morning. Dry and cloudy afternoon.
22nd: Sunny start though cloud increased through the day. Felt cold in the wind.
23rd: Bright start with lots of sunshine through the morning. Gradually filling in though feeling much milder than of late. Some light rain in the evening, heaviest between 3.30am and 5am.
24th: Cloudy start though with some bright spells. A short shower at 3ish.
25th: Sunny, cloudy start though with lots of high cloud filling in. Brief ground frost moved in just before midnight before rain moved in just before 4.30am.
26th: Drizzly light rain to start – felt cold. Not a nice day.
27th: Bright start with lots of watery sunshine through the day. Spits and spots of rain later as walked home from Wanstead.
28th: Cloudy start and mild with some brightness. Feeling mild. Some rain overnnight.
29th: Drizzly start with heavier bursts of rain, these fell through the day, drying up in the evening.
30th: Bright start with some sunny spells. Wind increased in strength through the day and was very strong overnight.
31st: Bright start after a stormy overnight that prompted a tug rescue that overturned in the Solent. Dartford Bridge was also closed. Showers surrounding Wanstead but only trace here – hail seen in City. Cold and windy overnight.
While heavy low cloud obscured the partial eclipse in this area there were a couple of interesting factors that I observed.
At 9.45am, shortly after the maximum obscuration of the solar disc the air pressure suddenly dropped. This coincided with sudden relief to my blocked nasal passages, symptoms of which appeared last night. Eighteen minutes later the fall in air pressure became less steep and the nasal symptoms returned.
The pressure dropped from 1029.8mb at 9.15am to 1029mb at 10.15am. I’m not sure if it was an effect of the eclipse or just a change in the synoptic situation that would have happened anyway
As the light began to fade it seemed to turn colder though, on looking at the actual figures, the effect of the partial eclipse through heavy cloud was a depression in temperature of 0.3C. I worked this out by comparing today with yesterday which had almost identical weather conditions. People remarked that it turned noticeably colder though perhaps this was more caused by standing out in temperatures of 4.9C for a long period.
Like the eclipse in 1999 I noticed that the birdsong quietened somewhat though there was not the same crescendo of noise that you normally get at dusk when birds roost.
Here is the temperature trace from the 19th. Even with the heavy cloud yesterday there was more warming from the sun, albeit by a very small 0.3C
This graph shows the temperature from 6am until 11am. Though the depression during the eclipse was just 0.1C comparison with the previous day, which saw near identical weather conditions, shows just how much solar heating was depressed
Christmas in Victorian London is often portrayed as very cold and snowy – picture perfect images of Yuletides past always scream out at us every year we open a box of Christmas cards.
The Temple, Wanstead Park, always looks that much more stunning with a covering of snow
But a look back through the meteorological records of the Royal Observatory at Greenwich reveals a very different reality.
The 1840s and 1850s, decades where most Christmas traditions marked today began, were often very mild, wet and windy – indeed before 2015 the warmest Christmas Day maximum temperature at Greenwich occurred in 1852 when the mercury reached 13.3C.
Like modern times, however, there were exceptions and 1840 was very cold – the record for Christmas Day mentions “trees coated with rime (ice) 3/8 inch thick”!
The following 20 years saw Christmas morning much milder – well over half had maxima of 6C or higher. In 1843, the year Charles Dickens first published A Christmas Carol and the public sent their first Christmas cards, the temperature reached a balmy 10.1C – though dense fog probably made it feel at least a bit more seasonal.
Frost is a common feature of Christmas Day
Four years later in 1847, the year the capital’s Tom Smith invented the Christmas cracker, things were a bit colder – a high of 4.2C and overcast with rain late evening. The following year an image of Victoria and Albert celebrating with their family around a Christmas tree appeared in the Illustrated London News. Like many things Royal down the years it really captured the public’s imagination of taking a spruce or similar evergreen into their living rooms and decorating it every Yuletide.
Christmas two years later, in 1849, was at least cold enough for something wintry to fall. London, however, was still coming to terms with its worst-ever cholera outbreak. With around 14,000 deaths from the disease Christmas was probably not a high priority that winter.
When Good King Wenceslas was first included in Carols for Christmas-Tide in 1853 the day was cold but there was still no “deep, crisp and even” snow or “rude wind’s wild lament”. The day stayed calm and clear.
Though the period either side of December 25th began to be marked with cold, snowy spells it would be another 11 years before London experienced its first official white Christmas in 1864. Sleet, which fell at the end of a 4-day cold spell, probably added to the drama of swimmers taking part in the first Christmas Day swim in the Serpentine, Hyde Park. With a high temperature of just 1.4C it’s quite feasible the few who braved it probably had to break the ice before they took the plunge.
Five years later London experienced another white Christmas with snow falling in a north-easterly breeze – the start of a four-day cold spell.
The joint-coldest Christmas Day on record followed in 1870 with a mean temperature of -7.2C. The building of the Royal Albert Hall was scheduled to be completed by December 25th but it was not until March 29th 1871 that it was officially opened by Queen Victoria.
The remainder of Victoria’s reign was marked with far more white Christmases, a period where nearly two-thirds of Decembers were marked with extended cold, snowy spells. Fog and frost were also frequent.
With a new century and new monarch Christmas-time turned milder and London would have to wait until close to the end of Edward VII’s reign in 1909 to see a ‘white Christmas’ – a poor affair with just a bit a sleet mixed in with the rain late morning. Many probably failed to notice it but it still counts as a white Christmas according to modern bookie’s standards.
Christmas Day can also be stormy
Four of the 26 Christmas Days of George V’s reign were white but the mean temperatures suggest they were all marginal affairs – the core cold weather happening either before or after the 25th. Of note also is the dominance of south-westerlies that brought mild and wet weather – nine out of ten Christmas Days in the 1920s saw rain falling – far in excess of the average for rain on Christmas Day which is 47 per cent.
Just one Christmas was white during George VI’s reign, a ‘good covering of snow’ was recorded by observers at Greenwich in 1938 – the snow falling at the end of a 7-day cold spell.
Sunshine was not a dominant feature of Christmas Day prior to Queen Elizabeth II coming to the throne – the average total in Greenwich from 1877 to 1951 was just under 0.8hrs. Yet the average sunshine total for Christmas Day for the first four years of Elizabeth’s reign jumped to 5.2 hours. The 6.5 hours on Christmas Day 1952 is a record that still stands today! It is remarkable that this record was set just over a fortnight after the Great Smog contributed to the deaths of 4,000 people though other studies put the figure at 12,000 people.
The Clean Air Act 1956 ironically saw the return of dull Christmas Days – though 1956 was a white Christmas with a light covering of snow and a maximum of zero Celsius.
White Christmas Days that followed included 1957 (showery sleet), 1964, 1968 (sleet), and 1970.
Christmas Day 1976 was the last time snow actually fell on Christmas Day in this area though, officially, the last white Christmas was 1996 when a few sleety flakes fell in the early morning.
Christmas Days since then have been mostly mild affairs in London. Of course we had a taste of what a Dickensian Christmas Day was like four years ago when the mean temperature for the day was -1.9C. There were still small patches of snow in our gardens but these were leftovers from a previous dump, so it doesn’t count as a white Christmas. Frustratingly, there has been snow on several Boxing Days in Wanstead (1995 and 1996) and in the weeks running up to Christmas, but not on Christmas day itself.
The warmest Christmas Day in this area occurred in 2015 when a maximum of 15.2C was recorded. Warm air sourced from off the west coast of Africa sent dew points soaring, the minimum on Christmas Day night into Boxing Day did not fall below 13.5C, another record.
The synoptic chart for 0000z Christmas Day 2015 shows ever-warmer air being pumped northwards over the British Isles.
It is surprising how varied the weather can be on Christmas Day – we always think that Yuletide in the ‘Olden Days’ was a cold affair but a look back to 1840 reveals there were times when it was just as mild as it has been in recent years.
Christmas Day morning 1927: the wettest with some 24.9mm recorded
* Statistics for every Christmas Day since 1840 can be found here.
** The definition of a white Christmas used most widely – notably by the bookies – is for a single snowflake, even if it lands in the midst of heavy rain, to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December at a specified location recognised by the Met Office.
*** In the past 170-odd years there has only been 19 white Christmases: in 1864 (sleet), 1869, 1876, 1878, 1884, 1895, 1909 (sleet), 1916, 1919, 1925, 1927, 1938, 1956, 1957 (sleet), 1964, 1968 (sleet), 1970, 1976, 1996 (sleet)
Just over 140 years ago The Grotto in Wanstead Park was destroyed by fire.
An account of the fire appeared in the November 29th edition of the Essex Newsman
The building, once part of the grand estate, was being used as a store room since the park’s acquisition by the Corporation of London. The fire, according to a local report at the time, initially started in a cottage adjacent to the Grotto and was discovered about 9 o’clock on November 20th 1884 by a man who had been walking through the park.
Mr G. H. Sparrow, of Latimer Road, Forest Gate, raised the alarm with Wanstead Fire Brigade who, despite arriving quickly, were too late to stop the fire spreading from the cottage to the Grotto. Their efforts were further hampered because the Ornamental Water was being cleansed – a supply of water was 250 yards distant from the River Roding, a fact that cost precious minutes.
By the time the fire was subdued the place was entirely destroyed – only the outside walls and entrance remained intact, probably more or less what you can see today.
The building was composed of shells, pebbles, fossils, rare stones, looking glasses and “a fine painted window that was built at an immense expenditure by the Countess of Mornington”. Its destruction removed the only remaining monument of what was once one of the great estates in the Eastern Counties.
The Grotto seen from across the Ornamental Water
I’ve often wondered if the weather could have played a part in the demise of the Grotto. The monthly average for November, however, suggests not. A mean of 5.7C is on the cold side compared with recent Novembers and although it was a dry month with 45mm of rain – that total is nothing out of the ordinary for the time of year.
Conditions on the day were bright though chilly, the temperature only rising to 7C after an overnight low of 2C. Perhaps one contributing factor was the north-westerly breeze which would have helped drive the flames through the structure.
One could also point to the fact that Ornamental Waters had no water to douse the flames as it was being cleaned. Though the fact that it was empty is nothing new as the entire lake system had retention problems from the park’s inception.
Perhaps it is a case that fires do just sometimes happen regardless of how careful we are in preventing them.
It is sad that bad luck seemed to hit the Grotto just like it saw the demise of Wanstead House decades before.
“The heat wave continues to keep in its fiery grip. It absolutely dominates the daily lives of our seven million population, whose habits are rapidly approximating to those much nearer the equator. Hyde Park ladies fashionably attired may be seen sitting under sunshades beneath the shadiest trees in their stockinged feet. Their shoes rest beside them on the parched grass.”
“Perhaps one in ten among the 8,000,000 of us slept after midnight. For the rest, we tossed and turned and saw out this heatwave night, when temperatures were never below 71 degrees, a variety of ways. About midnight I walked past the gaunt old Edwardian mansions in Kensington. With the exception the lights that burned from every window, the scene was reminiscent of the early days of the Blitz.
Wanstead Meteo 
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