Category Archives: monthly summary

Forecast, month ahead forecast, monthly summary, Weather

May 2015: average temps and dry

June 1, 2015 wansteadmeteo 3 Comments

After a sunny and dry April last month was disappointing for anyone looking for prolonged heat and sunshine. Indeed the month saw nearly two dozen less hours of sunshine than April.

During a very thundery day nationwide on 19th it was bright and sunny looking west on Southwark Bridge at 3.40pm... — During a very thundery day nationwide on 19th it was bright and sunny looking west on Southwark Bridge at 3.40pm…

Maximum temperatures were low for May – the highest being just 23.3C on 11th, 2C colder than the highest temperature in April.

Mean temperature for the month was 13.4C, 0.3C above the 1981-2010 mean. Rainfall of 38.9mm was 76% of average – six of the last seven Mays have been notably dry.

There were 178.5 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is 98% of what we can expect to see during an average May. The wettest day occurred on the 4th with 8.2mm.

So what has June got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (June 1st) suggest a very unsettled start to the month before the Azores high builds a ridge to quieten things down for a couple of days. Beyond that is uncertain – the ensembles point to a very mixed picture with no clear trend shown to where we might be in a fortnight’s time.

Looking east was a different story which revealed a distant thunderstorm

Looking at the month as a whole my long range method suggests June will be average in terms of temperature: 54% probability. The next highest chance is for rather cool at 15% probability. If you add the probabilities together the chance of average to below average temperature is 85% – which would seem to rule out a ‘very warm’ month…

Rainfall is looking average to slightly above average, though at only 62% probability. It looks like another broadly average month in terms of sunshine.

So with a slightly changeable start to the month we can look forward to another average month without prolonged heatwaves?

My May outlook was good in that it saw the high chance (80%) of average temperatures. I was, however, out with the low rainfall – the signal was for something greater than average. Sunshine, as already mentioned, was also out – my forecast was for something 1.2 above average.

May 19th was a very thundery day across eastern England. This picture was taken looking east from Southwark

Full stats for the month here: http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

Here follows the full weather diary for May…

1st: Sunny start but cloud quickly filled in. Though cloudy it remained bright. Cold wind.
2nd: Cloudy start but becoming brighter. Turned to hazy sun at 3.30pm but then turned cloudier. Rain by early hours, 5am and then again at 8.30am.
3rd: Cloudy after early rain then growing warm and muggy with sunshine at 2pm. It stayed bright and muggy into the evening.
4th: Sunny start then haze and cumulus soon thickened before clearing to sunny spells early lunchtime. Cloud built up again at 2pm. Rain spread in early evening with heavy bursts from 11pm to 1.30am – heaviest at midnight.
5th Cloudy start but becoming brighter albeit very windy through the morning and past lunchtime. Occasional showers with very heavy shower at 6am.
6th: Cloudy start with brighter interludes but turning very blustery with occasional light showers. These turned heavier through the day with a notable one at 2pm. Thunder heard at 5pm with more showers.
7th: Sunny start but with lots of cloud bubbling up

Wanstead was hit head-on by a thunderstorm at 2pm on 19th, clearly shown on this radar picture. Because the storms were fast moving rainfall accumulation was not remarkable

8th: Bright start after early light shower. Spots of rain during bright afternoon – these turned heavier at 3.30pm. Cloudy and mild overnight.
9th: Bright, slightly breezy start. Spells of very warm sunshine though also odd spots of rain during showers.
10th: Bright start with sunny spells through the day
11th: Bright start with altocumulus. Cloud broke to sunny spells though sky was very hazy at times. Feeling humid. Warm overnight but short, sharp shower moved in 10 minutes before obs time.
12th: Light rain to start from a frontal feature. This clearing to sunny spells and pleasant afternoon
13th: Sunny with few cirrus to start. More cloud bubbling up later. Clear at first overnight before cloud and light rain moved in before 9am.
14th: Cloudy but spits and spots of rain spread in, before more steady light rain at 10.30. This eased at noon before becoming heavier again at 3.30pm and rained into evening, easing up at midnight.
15th: Sunny start though cloud tended to fill in. Some rain around midnight
16th: Cloudy start though got progressively sunnier as cold front cleared, humidity fell and cloud melted away. Very pleasant. Cool overnight.
17th: Sunny, clear start with a few cirrus. Cloudier at times but still sunny spells. VERY breezy with f4/5 headwinds on ride to station. Rapidly changing skies with wind shear.
18th: Some light rain to start, this intermittent through the morning.
19th: Bright and breezy start. T-storm developed at 2.30pm but moved through quickly. Was two more, at 5pm and 7pm – notable rises in pressure as troughs moved through.
20th: Bright start. Light shower bubbled up late afternoon.
21st: Sunny start, cloud gradually filled in though.
22nd: Bright start with sunny spells. Warm.
23rd: Cloudy with a very thick layer of strato-cumulus making it dull. Two hours of light rain and drizzle followed but cleared to leave it bright with a couple of sunny intervals in the evening. It felt humid at first but turned much fresher once the drizzle cleared.
24th: Sunny start though cloud filling in to make it bright. Frontal light rain between 3 and 5pm.
25th: Cloudy most of the day, a few bright intervals though spits and spots of drizzle early evening.
26th: Sunny start with fluffy cumulus. Pleasant.
27th: Dry, warm and sunny all day. Heavy rain in York from 3pm to 8pm. Felt chilly in the wind.
28th: Dry, lots of cloud around
29th: Dry start though rain moved in between 11am and 1pm. Then sunny spells and breezy.
30th: Sunny though soon clouded over before clearing again to sunny spells. Mackerel sky observed at 8.30pm. Rain between 2.15am and 6.30am.
31st: Light rain to start with outbreaks throughout the morning. Some brightness mid to late afternoon.

Forecast, month ahead forecast, monthly summary

April 2015: very dry and sunny

May 1, 2015 wansteadmeteo 2 Comments

April showers bring spring flowers – or so the saying goes. The month was actually sunny and very dry with less than 50% of what falls in a normal month.

The cold nights and often chilly days helped to preserve spring blossom, with some stunning displays on streets around the borough.

Indeed just one day, the 30th, was what you could say was a classic April day – a sunny, clear morning saw convection build towering cumulus clouds with a light shower around lunchtime.

Mean temperature for the month was 10.6C, 0.8C above the 1981-2010 mean, over 1C cooler than April last year. Rainfall of 18.9mm was 45% of average – six of the last seven Aprils have been notably dry.

There were 201 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is 126% of what we can expect to see during an average April. The wettest day occurred on the 25th with 4.7mm. Air frosts: 5 Ground frosts: 13

So what has May got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (May 1st) suggest next days remain unchanged with troughs moving NE across the UK over the weekend introducing warmer air with a mix of sunshine and showers following. A new LP looks like developing over western France on Monday becoming absorbed in the main low to the west of the UK bringing a more sustained westerly feed ahead of rising pressure from the south later toward the weekend, bringing fine and summery conditions. The risk of rain should decrease as the week goes on.

Beyond that the outlook, as ever, is uncertain.

My long range method suggests the month will be average in terms of temperature: 80% probability. The next highest chance is for rather mild at 20% probability. Rainfall is looking average to slightly below average, though at only 60% probability. It looks like another sunny month is in prospect – 80% probability of sunshine at 1.2 times the mean.

So with a slightly changable start to the month we can look forward to another sunny, pleasant spring month without heatwaves?

Long spells of cirrus gave a solar halo on the 17th.

My April outlook was good in that it ruled out any chance of a very mild or very cold month. The combined probability of 72% for an average to rather mild month was correct. I was, however, completely off with the rainfall, the signal for which was greater than average

Full stats for the month here: http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

Here follows the full weather diary for April…

1st: Bright start but very breezy through the morning and afternoon. Rain after 11pm and again at 3.30am.
2nd: Bright start though sunny spells increased through the day. Felt really pleasant out by noon. Some rain in the early hours before obs time.
3rd: Cloudy through the day with some rain late afternoon.
4th: Cloudy all day though with some drizzly rain. Some brightness was seen on way in to South Kensington in the Whitechapel area.
5th: Cloudy, cold start but with sunny spells developing through the day. Pleasant in the sun.
6th: Sunny start with cloud building from time to time. Cloud cleared overnight to give a ground frost.
7th: Sunny start with long clear periods through the day.
8th: Cloudy start gradually cleared to hazy sunshine. Cloudier again in afternoon.
9th: Cloudy start though soon brightening up for a sunny day in town.

Typical April days of sunshine and showers were in short supply. There were some stunning sunsets, including this one on the 30th

10th: Cloudy start though cloud quickly thinned to leave sunny day. However, cloud was hazy at times with bad pollution seen over London. Also a few drops of rain were observed rain around edge of Ornamental Waters. Humid.
11th: Drizzle turned to moderate rain that was over in 45 minutes and cleared to sunny intervals, then longer sunny periods through the day. Much cooler than yesterday.
12th: Sunny start led to a day of long sunny spells. Sky was initially a deep blue but hazy cumulus built up after 4pm.
13th: Cloudy start, some brightness in the afternoon.
14th: Sunny, gin clear start. Sunny all day with light breeze taking edge off temp.
15th: Sunny, clear start for RMetS meeting. Slight breeze kept edge off temp. Some light clouds late afternoon. Cooling off quickly in early hours.
16th: Sunny spells in the morning.
17th: Sunny though long spells of cirrus gave a solar halo. Chilly in the wind.
18th: Sunny spells to start though cloud decreased to leave gin clear afternoon. Dew point dropped to 1.5C making it feel very chilly.
19th: Bright start but cloud quickly filled in leaving it feeling cold in the wind. Some sunshine after 5pm making it a pleasant if a bit cold in the wind evening.
20th: Sunny and mostly clear all day. Much warmer.
21st: Sunny and mostly clear all day. More contrails though. Chilly overnight again.
22nd: Sunny start though cloud filled in earlier than yesterday. Nowhere near as warm.
23rd: Cloudy start though the cloud decreased and was gin clear by 12.15pm.
24th: Sunny start although hazy at times. Cloud gradually increased late afternoon and light rain arrived 1am.
25th: Cloudy start though plenty of breaks in the cloud developed allowing for a pleasant afternoon.
26th: Slight drizzle to start then cloudy and cold all day. Cold overnight in clearer spells.
27th: Sunny start. Clouds bubbled up though the day with showers reported elsewhere. It threatened rain in Wanstead but stayed dry.
28th: Sunny start with just a few clouds through the day. Feeling cold though.
29th: Light rain to start though this suddenly cleared at 10.15am before clouding over again.
30th: Sunny start with clouds bubbling up. A light shower in Snaresbrook.

month ahead forecast, monthly summary, Weather

March 2015: dry and sunny with av temps

April 1, 2015 wansteadmeteo 3 Comments

The saying March: in like a lion, out like a lamb and vice versa is frequently wrong. This March saw it windy at the beginning, end and middle of the month.

This graph shows the 'wind run' of every day in March. Notice how the peaks are at the beginning, middle and end of the month — This graph shows the ‘wind run’ of every day in March. Notice how the peaks are at the beginning, middle and end of the month

Mean temperature for the month was 7.6C, 0.1C below the 1981-2010 mean, over 1C cooler than March last year. Rainfall of 17.9mm was 44% of average – four of the last five Marches have been notably dry.

There were 131.5 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is precisely 121% of what we can expect to see during an average March. The wettest day occurred on the 29th with 4.2mm. Hail fell on 1 day. Air frosts: 5 Ground frosts: 13

So what has april got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (April 1st) suggest a dominance of high pressure though there’s lots of uncertainty as to where this will drift once it has formed over the Easter weekend. If it moves north there is a risk of chilly easterly winds at times that will take the edge off temperatures.

Rainfall amounts will be small after the next couple of days though sunshine amounts will be reduced if we get the cold easterly feed off the continent. Beyond that the outlook, as ever, is uncertain.

My long range method suggests the month will be average in terms of temperature: 43% probability. The next highest chance is for rather mild at 29% probability. Rainfall is looking greater than average, though at 57% probability.

My March outlook was good in that it ruled out any chance of a very mild month. Though the signal was for a cold month overall I think the fact that Scandinavia and Russia had a relatively mild winter meant that the resulting overall temperature was far milder than it normally would have been, given the air flow.

Full stats for the month here: http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

Here follows the full weather diary for March…

1st: Sunny start with more cloud afternoon and a rain squall sweeping through at 5.30pm. Cold wind.
2nd: Sunny start though cold wind. Odd shower.
3rd: Sunny start but with cloudier periods and odd spot of rain up to 2pm. Skies turned really dark to the north but no reports of heavy rain. Cold overnight but no air frost due to the wind.
4th: Sunny spells with cloudier intervals.
5th: Sunny, frosty start. Cloud bubbling up with sun becoming scarcer.
6th: Sunny and clear with just a few cirrus.
7th: Sunny start, just a few cirrus though more breeze
8th: Sunny start though more clouds bubbling up than yesterday.
9th: Sunny start was quickly replaced by overcast conditions. Spots of rain on way into work – signs of something heavier when left work at midnight. Clear again by morning.
10th Sunny start with some cirrus type haze. Cloud bubbled up but sunnier than yesterday.
11th: Sunny start, cloud growing thicker through the day before a pink sunset. Some light rain before a clear night.
12th Sunny start and just a few clouds around. Cloud thicker in afternoon.
13th Hazy bright start though cloud thickened.
14th: Sunny start quickly turned cloudy and dull. More brightness in afternoon though cold wind. Early shower at 6.30am.
15th: Dull start into the morning. Some light rain late morning and during the afternoon. More rain after midnight and just beofre dawn.
16th: Cloudy start though with bright intervals in the afternoon. Area of light rain around 4am.
17th: Cloudy start with light rain spreading in. Brighter by 1pm though very misty on ride in to work. Misty again overnight.
18th: Cloudy, misty start though much more sunshine than yesterday on ride to Lea Valley. Cloudier overnight.
19th: Cloudy and dull all day, feeling cold – the cloud persisting into the evening.
20th; Cloudy start for the eclipse. The sky cleared about 12.30pm to leave bright sunshine and a pleasant, springlike afternoon. Early ground frost before sky clouded over.
21st: Cloudy but some spots of drizzle mid-morning. Dry and cloudy afternoon.
22nd: Sunny start though cloud increased through the day. Felt cold in the wind.
23rd: Bright start with lots of sunshine through the morning. Gradually filling in though feeling much milder than of late. Some light rain in the evening, heaviest between 3.30am and 5am.
24th: Cloudy start though with some bright spells. A short shower at 3ish.
25th: Sunny, cloudy start though with lots of high cloud filling in. Brief ground frost moved in just before midnight before rain moved in just before 4.30am.
26th: Drizzly light rain to start – felt cold. Not a nice day.
27th: Bright start with lots of watery sunshine through the day. Spits and spots of rain later as walked home from Wanstead.
28th: Cloudy start and mild with some brightness. Feeling mild. Some rain overnnight.
29th: Drizzly start with heavier bursts of rain, these fell through the day, drying up in the evening.
30th: Bright start with some sunny spells. Wind increased in strength through the day and was very strong overnight.
31st: Bright start after a stormy overnight that prompted a tug rescue that overturned in the Solent. Dartford Bridge was also closed. Showers surrounding Wanstead but only trace here – hail seen in City. Cold and windy overnight.

month ahead forecast, monthly summary, Weather

February 2015: average

February 27, 2015 wansteadmeteo 2 Comments

feb3rd snow — A snowfall on the 3rd just about covered the ground for a few hours, though was barely enough to make a snowball

Though it only lasted a couple of hours this February saw the first lying snow in nearly two years. The 1cm depth at 9am on 3rd, however, is nothing much to write home about by average winter standards.

Mean temperature for the month was 4.9C, 0.4C below the 1981-2010 mean, 2.5C cooler than the mild and stormy February of last year. Rainfall of 43.6mm was 111% of average.

There were 73.6 hours of sunshine recorded in this area which is precisely 100% of what we can expect to see during an average February. The wettest day occurred on the 19th with 8.7mm. Snow fell on 3 days, hail on 2. Air frosts: 4 Ground frosts: 19

So what has March got in store weatherwise? The models this morning (March 1st) suggest a taste of spring – the recent cold and showery regime being replaced by quiet, anticyclonic weather. Output suggests variable cloud cover with a mild SW wind. Obviously sunny days will see quite respectable temperatures though any clear nights will see frost and mist developing.

View from top of Ditchling Beacon in Sussex during a half-term walk

Beyond that the outlook is uncertain. Using a similar method to my Christmas forecast, which was correct at 25 days ahead and my January and February outlooks, I’ve had a look back in the archives to see if there is any precedent in the pattern we’ve had this February.

There appears no chance of a very mild March. The strongest signal (67%) is for a cold March. The strongest signal for precipitation is for average to slightly below (83%). Sunshine, no overall signal, so my guess is average.

Though we are now out of the meteorological winter there is still a risk of snow. Any falls, however, would be thin and transitory because of the strength of the sun now.

Full stats for the month here: http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

Here follows the full weather diary for February…

1st Bright start with sunny spells thoughout the day

2nd Sunny start but soon clouded over. Cleared again in evening though with lunar halo. Showers moved in after midnight and into early hours to leave thin coating of snow by 8am.

3rd 1cm at 9am. A bright start though with lots of cloud around. Sunnier in afternoon, the snow had melted by 1pm. Variable clear spells through the night but too cloudy for frost.

4th Cloudy start but some brightness. The sunshine felt warm at times. Variiable cloud overnight. Woke up to see snow falling but too warm to settle – the air being 1.2C, dew point 0.5C

5th Some spots of sleet to start and during the day. Colder air digging in from 3pm. Feeling bitter.

6th Bright start, cloud decreasing through the day to give long sunny spells. Cold wind

7th Cloudy and cold start

8th A sunny start with long sunny spells all day

9th Mostly cloudy to start though bright and breaking to sunny spells and then unbroken sunshine.

10th Cloudy and cold all day

11th Dull and cloudy all day

12th Dull start and stayed dull all day. Cold. Warming up after 2am with some very light rain with warm front.

13th Bright spells through the morning with a brief clearance around 1pm. Rain soon arrived though and fell through the afternoon and into the evening. Rain again from midnight until 2am

14th Bright intervals to start though mostly cloudy through the day. Some very light rain showers through the day and into the night

15th Cloudy start though with bright intervals becoming more frequent. Clear by dusk allowing temp to fall quickly

16th Cloudy start with rain spreading in after 1pm, moderate at times

17th Unbroken sunshine until 1pm then a few clouds. Cold overnight on boat

18th Sunny most of the day with only a few high clouds

19th Sunny until mid morning then clouding over quickly. Rain pushed in late lunchtime and lingered all day and into evening. Stayed dry on walk until 2.30pm but very stong wind ahead of rain band

20th Cloudy start though bright through haze at times. Feeling cold. Cloudy into evening with area of rain at 7am

21st Sunny start after rain at 7am. Very cloudy at times with light hail <5mm – the sky suggested the hail was heavy elsewhere. Reports of snow in Oxford. Frosty overnight

22nd Sunny start but cloud quickly filled in before rain arrived at 3pm. Temp then rose to a high of 9.5C at 11pm before falling at midnight

23rd Sunny start but with cloud bubbled up and some light hail mixed in with showers. Feeling cold

24th Sunny start with some cloud bubbling up. Heavy hail shower at 3.30pm. Temp built through the night with rain 5.30am – 7.30am

25th Drizzly start broke to sunny spells. Much milder. Drizzle overnight after 3.30am

26th Cloudy start with rain late morning. Cold front blew through around 2pm. Clear and frosty overnight

27th Sunny, cold start. Cloud gradually increased through the day. Temperature lifted a little – spits and spots of rain felt on way home

Events, monthly summary

January 2015 – average, wet and sunny

February 1, 2015 wansteadmeteo 2 Comments

This January saw the first falling snow in nearly two years with the last three days of the month seeing the first flakes of winter – nothing much to write home about by average winter standards.

Cold front clearance over Wanstead Flats on 28th. The day saw three potent cold fronts with steep temperature falls. <5mm hail in the last and thunder heard in Woodford Green — Cold front clearance over Wanstead Flats on 28th. The day saw three potent cold fronts with steep temperature falls.

Mean temperature for the month was 5C, 0.2C below the 1981-2010 mean – the first below average month since August and 1.6C cooler than the mild and stormy January of last year.

Rainfall of 69.2mm was 130% of average – though over 60mm less than last year’s record-breaking wet January.

It was the 6th sunniest January on record in my series going back to 1877. Over 73 hours of sunshine was recorded in this area which is 147% of what we can expect to see during an average January.

The wettest day occurred on the 12th with 13.1mm.

Air frosts: 11

Ground frosts: 14

So what has February got in store weatherwise? The general consensus of the models suggest the first half of the month is going to be on the cold side and relatively dry though there is a chance of some precipitation from troughs forming in an unstable airflow off the North Sea. Pressure looks like it will build from Wednesday, blocking any advance of Atlantic weather systems. It is the location of the high which will be crucial to the weather we can expect. At this time of year anticyclonic gloom can be a problem during the day and where clouds clear at night fog and frost may form.

The Shard in fog from Southward Bridge — The Shard in fog from Southwark Bridge on January 4th

Beyond that, for anyone seeking any snowy weather, the outlook, as ever, is uncertain. Using a similar method to my Christmas forecast, which was correct at 25 days ahead and my January outlook, I’ve had a look back in the archives to see if there is any precedent in the pattern we’ve had this January.

There appears no chance of a very mild February. The strongest signal (72%) is for an average to rather cold February. The strongest signal for precipitation is for very dry (50% of average) at 43%. After the disappointment of the last week here regarding snow I am not about to guess if there will be any snowfall for us this coming month. If we do see any though I would imagine any cover will be thin and lasting only a day or two…

Full stats for the month here: http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y

Here follows the full weather diary for January

1st Cloudy and cold.

2nd Sunny most of the day before cloud spread in in the evening and rain fell just before 4am.

3rd Mostly wet with moderate bursts of rain on what was a cold and miserable day – the fields between Grays and Basildon were flooded.

4th Skies cleared early morning with fog and mist forming to give a cold, grey day and a maximum of only 3C – some parts of East Anglia recorded an ‘ice day’. The temperature started to lift at midnight on 5th meaning that day 5s ‘high’ temperature was at 8.32am on 6th.

5th Cloudy and very calm up to midday.

6th rain at midday as cold front passed through, bright and sunny spells and brief frost at 1am. Cloud moved in.

7th a sunny start though chilly, cloud built through the morning. Light rain around 7pm and through the evening. This turned heavier at 4.30am and really got going at 7.30am.

8th Heavy rain to start, this easing at 11.30am before the sun came out at 1pm to give afternoon of sunny spells. Brief rain again around midnight.

9th Bright start, wind building through the day as storms struck off north Scotland. Very mild in the warm sector: +15.2C at 8pm. Shetland badly affected by cloud head in early hours. Windy through the night.

10th Bright start though cloud built quickly with cold front passing through around 10am. Dew point dropped from 11C to 3C in matter of hours. Felt very cold in the wind.

A storm passed over Shetland on January 10th

11th Sunny start, clouded over by 2pm with temp building through day and odd drizzle.

12th Cloudy start with spits and spots of rain up until 2pm.

13th Sunny until lunchtime . Clouded over though with some light rain. Thunderstorm reported in Bracknell and snow reported above 125m in Wales Lampeter.

14th Sunny start but lots of cloud from embedded instability in the airflow. Temperature rose all day with drizzle at 6pm. Pressure bottomed out at 985.3mb at 0345z. Peak gust 21.3mph at 0320z. Rain heaviest at 0412z 12.1mm/hr

15th Sunny start with lots of cloud around, feeling cold in the wind

16th Cloudy and much calmer

17th Cloudy start with threat of snow showers at 11am, remained as rain though snow reported at Berkhampsted and Watford. Pleasant day with sunshine.

18th Mostly cloudy in morning but with weak sunshine. Temperature plunged after dark but cloud prevented further cooling at midnight.

A warm sector saw the temperature rise to 12.7C in the early hours of New Year's Day — A warm sector saw the temperature rise to 12.7C in the early hours of New Year’s Day

19th Sunny , cold start with a few clouds. Frost returned at 6.40pm with coldest night since Jan 2013.

20th Sunny start but took till 11am to rise above freezing with some frost lingering well into the afternoon. Snowflakes reported at Laindon and dusting in parts of Kent. More general snow PM from Chilterns northwards – too warm here.

21st Cloudy, dull and cold all day with some drizzle. Snow reported in Laindon. Dull and cold in Reading.

22nd Hazy sun to start, sunny spells all day. Very cold overnight

23rd Sunny start with high alto-cumulus. Gradually becoming more cloudy though staying bright. Temperature started rising after dark with approach of warm front. Temp peaked at 2am as cold front whistled through with brief heavy rain. Sunny again by dawn.

24th Sunny with occasional cloudier spells. Feeling cold in the wind.

25th Sunny start but gradually clouding over. Temperature climbed through the day and night. Drizzle in the wind.

26th Cloudy with bright periods. Temp and dew point started falling after 10am with passing of warm sector.

27th Hazy sun to start then wintry sunny spells all day.

28th Cloudy start quickly gave wave to at least three potent cold fronts with steep temperature falls. <5mm hail in the last and thunder heard in Woodford Green. Clearer spells overnight and possibly spots of rain.

29th Sunny, cold start . Clouding over with potent shower at 4.30pm that gave a brief covering of snow pellets. Snow and sleet at 9.30pm but no accumulation here. Snow falling.

30th Cloudy, cold and damp day with some drizzle pm. Lots of snow in Derbyshire – one report of 41cm. Reports of snow falling in the early hours at Hollow Ponds. Snow falling.

31st Cloudy with intermittent light rain through day. Reports of snow in north Essex and Southend. Some sleet in the early hours

Events, monthly summary

December 2014: Sunny, dryer than average

January 1, 2015 wansteadmeteo 4 Comments

This December was the sunniest on record in my series going back to 1877. Over 90 hours of sunshine was recorded in this area which is 224% of what we can expect to see during an average December.

It was the sunniest December on record in the series going back to 1979. Some 11 mornings were completely clear at the 9am observation time

Mean temperature for the month was precisely average at 5.6C. Rainfall of 39.9mm was 75% of average – the driest since 2010.

The month was 0.7C cooler than last December – with just under half the rain that fell in that wet and stormy month.

The first day of December was cloudy, dull and dreary with drizzle in a keen east wind. The following days alternated between rain and sun and some night frost. On the 6th the day started sunny with just a few cirrus clouds – overnight frost persisted all day in my garden with a grass min at -2C. The 9th began sunny after a hard frost but then the temperature climbed for 19 hours with cloud building and brief rain at 2am before the cold front passed.

The wettest day occurred on the 11th. The day started sunny but blustery showers blown in on strong WSW winds coupled together with 6 hours of rain overnight produced 11.5mm.
Things turned much milder in the 3rd week with frequent, chiefly light rain, abundant sunshine and an absence of frost. On the 18th the temperature reached 14C.

Christmas Eve saw the weather begin to cool down again with progressively colder nights. Boxing Day was a cloudy, cold day with rain spreading in during the evening and a notable warm sector raising the temperature to nearly 9C at midnight. The first lowland snow of the winter was reported up north. The month ended with long sunny days and sharp frosts, a couple persisting through the day.

Air frosts: 12

Ground frosts: 15

This satellite picture taken on December 27th, 2014, shows the LP clearing through to leave us in clear, deep cold air

From this month, using a similar method for predicting winter, I am going to finish these monthly reviews with a look ahead to see what next month has in store.

The general consensus of the models suggest the first half of the month is going to be mostly unsettled with a mixture of wind and rain off the Atlantic and transient ridges from the south bringing mild, sunny days.

Looking at the 10-day ahead forecast on Netweather suggests the temperature will be just above average with rainfall also slightly higher than normal.

Beyond that, for anyone seeking any snowy weather, the outlook is uncertain. Using a similar method to my Christmas forecast, which was correct at 25 days ahead, I’ve had a look back in the archives to see if there is any precedent in the pattern we’ve had this December.

The simple answer is there is no over-riding signal for any weather type, save that there appears no chance of a repeat of the very mild January of last year. Taking all the probabilities together gives an 88% chance that January will be average to cold – so perhaps there will be some snow in the second half of the month.

monthly summary, Rainfall, Weather

November 2014: Mild and wet, average sun

December 1, 2014 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

The final month of autumn was most notable for its rainfall with 19 consecutive days of measurable precipitation and just four completely dry days .

November 22nd by Perch Pond. Drizzle early morning couple with damp air left mist floating above the surface

The month was warmer than average; the mean temperature of 8.9C was 0.9C above average, making it the 19th warmest November since 1797: 2.2C warmer than last November, though only the warmest since 2011.

The sunny and start on the 1st was quickly replaced with an unsettled, cooler regime week which lasted for nearly three weeks. A brief respite on the 20th was followed by more rain – with 12mm and 15.2mm on the 22nd and 23rd. It was wetter than average: 97.5mm represents 165 per cent of what we’d expect to fall in a normal November.

Despite it being wet it was only the 40th wettest November in the series back to 1797.

The warmest day occurred on the 1st with 17.2C recorded. The first frosts of autumn were recorded. The lowest temperature occurred on 24th when the mercury fell to -1.5C.

Sunshine was average with 60.5 hours recorded – that’s 103 per cent of mean. The sunniest day was on the 4th when 6 hours of sunshine were recorded.

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monthly summary, Rainfall, Weather

October 2014: warm but wet

November 1, 2014 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

Save for the warmest Hallowe’en on record and a notable depression on the 21st October was a relatively quiet month.

The month was warmer than average; the mean temperature of 13.7C was 1.9C above average, making it the 5th warmest October since 1797: 0.7C warmer than last October, though only the warmest since 2011.

The dry and sunny start was replaced with a very unsettled regime at the end of the first week which lasted until the end of the second week – with 39.5mm of rain falling over the 12th and 13th, a notable total for this region. It was wetter than average: 82.4mm represents 123 per cent of what we’d expect to fall in a normal October.

Despite it being wet it was only the 74th wettest October in the series back to 1797.

The warmest day occurred on the 31st with 21.5C recorded. Many nights were warm with date records matched or broken. Cold nights, relative to the time of year were few. The lowest temperature occurred on 4th when the mercury fell to 2C – a ground frost was narrowly avoided with the grass minimum thermometer falling to 0.2C.

Sunshine was slightly below average with 103.6 hours recorded – that’s 97 per cent of mean. The sunniest day was on the 5th when 9 hours of sunshine were recorded.

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monthly summary, Weather

September 2014: warmer and dryer than average

October 1, 2014 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

In terms of weather events September was a relatively quiet month save for the two thunderstorms that seemed to mark the Scottish Referendum as the results became apparent in the early hours of Friday 19th.

Clouds above could be seen developing rapidly at 2.30pm on 19th September

September 2014 was warmer than average; the mean temperature of 16.4C was 1.1C above average, making it the 16th warmest September since 1797: 1.6C warmer than last September, the warmest since 2011.

The month was marked with lots of dry, sunny days, the two thunderstorms on the 19th contributing 89 per cent of the rainfall for the month. It was dryer than average – the 44.8mm that fell is 86 per cent of what we would expect in a normal September.

Despite this it was only the driest September here since 2011.

The warmest day occurred on the 18th with 25.6C recorded. Most nights were warm though a couple of nights were chilly: 5.4C was recorded on 24th

Sunshine was below average with 126.9 hours recorded – that’s 91 per cent of mean. The sunniest day was on the 8th when 12 hours of sunshine were recorded. There were 2 days with thunder recorde.

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Clouds, Flood, monthly summary, Rainfall, thunderstorm, Weather

August 2014 – cool, wet and dull

September 1, 2014 wansteadmeteo Leave a comment

Anyone hoping for a continuation of June and July’s hot weather would have been left sorely disappointed by last month which was characterised by frequent rain and the coldest August night for over 20 years.

A stunning example of sunlight illuminating the underside of cloud at sunset was seen mid-month

August 2014 was the first month this year to be cooler than average; the mean temperature of 17.2C was 1C below average, making it the 89th warmest August since 1797: 1.6C cooler than last August, the coolest for 7 years.

The month was marked with thunderstorms and heavy downpours, contributing to what was a much wetter than average month – some 76mm fell which is 152% of the monthly average and the wettest for 4 years.

The hottest day occurred on the 7th with 27.3C recorded – nothing special for August and a date that heralded the end of the hot spell during June and July.

A couple of nights were notably cool for August: 5C was recorded during the early hours of the 23rd – the coldest August night since 1993.

Sunshine was below average with 161 hours recorded – that’s 83 per cent of mean. The sunniest day was on the 3rd when 12 hours of sunshine were recorded. Throughout the month there were just 2 days with 10 hours or more of sunshine. There were 4 days with thunder recorded – the average for August is 3.

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Looking further afield there were many thunderstorms around the UK though many places missed out on the big downpours. It was yet another month where rainfall totals could vary greatly in the space of just a few miles.

On the 9th a station in Woodford Green recorded 24.4mm, double what fell in Wanstead. The legacy of TS Bertha coincided with the end of our extended hot spell – an excellent analysis of this storm can be found here.

There were some spectacular cloud formations not far from here. A particularly good one was seen in Witham.

Squally storm line approaching Witham, panoramic shot!

Prolonged heavy rain on the 11th caused extensive flooding in Scotland.

On the 14th ‘Biblical’ flooding affected Lewisham in south east London.

On 25th a perfect curl could be seen on a depression centred off the west coast of Irleland. The rain associated with this low pressure brought the month’s highest daily rainfall total: 23.4mm (the system bringing 27.5mm) – a thoroughly miserable Bank Holiday Monday where it rained ALL day, from 6am until 9.30pm. It was yet another example of how much even frontal rainfall can vary over a small area with St James Park recording 38.2mm. The top 30 totals for that day can be seen here.