How cold will November end?

Twitter and other forums have been at fever pitch with excitement for a ‘nailed-on’ cold spell. 

But with many getting carried away over tales of a repeat of March’s ‘Beast from the East’ it is important to remember that snow in November is extremely rare in the south-east; despite predictions of the incoming upper air being very cold the ground is still very warm and will take time to cool.

However, as seen in November 1993, a week of hard frosts were enough to chill the ground enough for a decent week-long cold spell. Similarly, although the snow didn’t arrive in London until December, November 2010 was also cold enough.

The weather of late has been in an ‘average mood’ with the mean temperature in September and October both finishing at 0.2C below. The mean for the this month is currently (on the 15th) running 1.8C above average, therefore for the mean to finish the same as September / October would require a big cool down, as hinted by the models.

Will we see another an average, 1993 or a 2010 end to the month. My hunch is it will be something between the three.

Below is a graph that shows this November so far with average, 1993 and 2010 ends.
2018: 0.4
1993: -0.8
2010: -1.4

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.