December 2016 was the driest 12th month in over 80 years and the 5th driest in a record going back to 1797.
The total fall of 8.3mm is just 16 per cent of what normally falls in December, marginally more than December 1933. The mean temperature of 6.1C was 0.5C above average, though 4C colder than the record December last year.
There were 51hrs of sunshine, that’s 125 per cent of average.
The wettest day was on the 10th when 5.2mm of rain fell. The warmest day occurred on the 9th with 14.2C recorded. The lowest temperature occurred on the 28th when the spirit fell to -4C.
The sunniest days were on the 4th and 29th when seven hours of sunshine were recorded.
Air frosts: 8, Ground frosts: 14
Though January has started on the chilly side in the short term the weather will turn mild. Beyond that there is a suggestion that the weather could turn on the colder side of average with some models suggesting a cold snap with snow around mid-month.
My usual method of prediction to the end of the month has been scotched by the very dry December. The only years that were similar were both far colder than last month – the usual pattern of a dry month being cold or very cold was broken.
With the unprecedented warmth at the North Pole, last year’s odd behaviour of the QBO and a weak polar vortex we are in unprecedented territory in terms of what could happen later in January. My hunch, though, suggests the month will end up average to rather cold with little precipitation. Any cold spell with probably be the short-lived variety with a couple of inches of snow that lasts three days.
So, to sum up, we’re looking at a mean of 4.4C, rainfall: 55mm, sunshine: 39hrs.
In view of the above my forecast last month was very poor: predicted mean 4.4C (result 6.1C). Rainfall: 55mm (result 8mm). Sunshine: 39hrs (result 51hrs)
I have also published a winter forecast covering the London area that you can find here.
Here follows the full weather diary for December…Full stats for the month here:http://1drv.ms/1rSfT7Y
1st: Sunny start though the frost lifted readily into low cloud and mist to leave a chilly afternoon.
2nd: Cloudy, quiet and cool weather all day.
3rd: Cloudy and quiet all day. Feeling cold.
4th: Sunny , frosty start. Quickly warming up to leave sunny, cloudless afternoon.
5th: Sunny start, then patchy cloud – this thickening before becoming foggy overnight.
6th: Misty start after fog overnight. Cloudy most of the day though there was a brief clearance around midday.
7th: Cloudy most of the day though there was occasional brightness.
8th: Dull day though with a little limited brightness early afternoon.
9th: Cloudy but wth more brightness than yesterday. Very mild. Cloud thickened with light rain around 11am. This gradually grew heavier as the day progressed and was moderate overnight.
10th: Bright start and feeling mild, then cloudier and damp.
11th: Cloudy and dull all day.
12th: Dull all day with light rain early and late. Clearer spells overnight but overcast again by dawn.
13th: Dull with bits and pieces of drizzle up to 11.20am.
14th: Bright start with lots of cirrus and altocumulus – this gradually cleared to leave a warm and pleasant afternoon.
15th: Dull and cloudy with limited brightness.
16th: Dull and cloudy start.
17th: Foggy and dull all day.
18th: Misty start with fog above 90m on cycle ride. Then dull and grey all day. Mild.
19th: Dull and cloudy all day – some spots of drizzle.
2oth: Sunny start but clouded over late morning. Cloudy thereafter with some drizzle overnight.
21st: Cloudy start then sunny. Cloud returned and turned dull and dreary in the afternoon with odd drizzle.
22nd: Bright, misty start
23rd: Cloudy start with breeze beginning to build as a result of Storm Barbera.
24th: Cloudy and dull all day. Very mild. Temp increasing overnight with approach of warm front .
25th: Cloudy, breezy start. Remained dull all day though brightness was seen over the Thames and North Downs, disrupting the SW’ly flow.
26th: Sunny, hazy start and turning colder.
27th: Sunny, frosty start, the air pressure record of 2012 has been broken.
28th: Foggy start, the fog persisting to late morning before sun broke through leaving a chilly afternoon. Frost returned quickly after dark, a clear night.
29th: Sunny and very cold and frosty start. Frost returning after dark with fog forming in the early hours.
30th: Foggy and dull all day, the fog thickening up at nightfall. Approaching cloud lifted the fog and temperature.
31st: Dull and overcast to start – this sticking around all day.