The GFS model is now within range of the big day on the 25th. From now until Christmas Eve I will be having a look to see what is on offer.

The first operational run suggests something of interest but please bear in mind there is a long way to go yet. While operational runs are often exciting, the below suggests a potent northerly with snow for many, the right hand average is much more realistic though admittedly boring.

My own guess at this stage is for something benign, a high of 6C with a low of 2C, perhaps some frost early or late on?

10th: Op run this morning is showing quiet weather. A high of 4C after overnight frost.

11th: Op run now shows a slack north-easterly and possible snow.

13th: An anticyclone to the north of Scotland continues to keep things seasonal on the op run this morning. The average again benign.

14th: More interest on today’s midnight run. The op shows a cold pattern. Frost early and late and a high of 2 or 3C. A chance of flurries. Even the average looks less mild!

15th: The interest of yesterday has faded. Not terribly mild but not cold either. Xmas morning starting chilly, 6C with rain in the evening, a warm sector bring the temp up to 10C in the evening. The average suggests something similar.

17th: All change again on the op run today with an Atlantic ridge with plenty of cloud. High 7C Low 4C. Gloomy. The Average less settled…

18th: The op this morning suggests the 25th will be something of a changover from the present regime to something more settled. The op chart suggests a temperature of 9C day and night though perhaps the reality may see some frost late on in the day.

20th: It’s looking quiet and calm.

21st: quiet and calm.

You can find out what every Christmas Day in London was like weatherwise here.