climate | Wanstead Meteo

The coming winter is likely to be mild and wet overall thanks to a predominant south-westerly Atlantic regime.

While that may sound grim for any snow and cold lovers reading this I would suggest that the possibility of brief cold snaps this season are higher than they have been during the last few winters.

This year I have tried to improve my statistical method by adding warming on to previous years to, hopefully, give better results.

In terms of rainfall and mean temperature a total of eleven years were similar to this October and November, spanning 1826 to 2021.

The probabilities for the following DJF winter were thus.

Mean temperature	Probability	Rainfall	Probability
Very mild	46%	Wet	33%
Average to mild	33%	Average	37%
Below average	21%	Dry	30%

London winter forecast 2024/25

Looking deeper into the stats I had a look at the Oceanic Niño Index; no years were similar to this one though the index only goes as far back as 1950 – so no real help.

The prognosis for snow at this point seems bleak – though chances may be heightened should we experience a stratospheric sudden warming in December / January. Though, as seen in 1987 where a vortex ‘split’ was recorded, this would still not guarantee wintry weather.

Looking at the data month to month would suggest the best chance of a cold snap around December 22nd through Christmas before warming up in the New Year. Beyond that I would suggest that the chances of another cold snap in January are higher than they have been for the last few winters. February, however, looks very mild and possibly very wet.

Best I can do – have a good winter all!

Below is how I think each month will unfold.