This winter is looking mild or very mild overall with slightly above average rainfall.

This year I’ve added to my previous method of forecasting by also considering the 12-month rolling rainfall statistics on November 30th together with the January-November mean anomalies.

This gave the following list.

Thus, in terms of chances:

Above average	>6.2	46%
Average mean (C)	5.2-6.2	36%
Below average	<5.2	18%

And for rainfall:

>125%	195	18%
Average (mm)	156.1	64%
<75%	117	18%

The ‘line of best fit’ appears to be the winter of 2003/04 which, after a cold snap in late December that delivered a maximum snow depth of 7cm on December 29th, it turned out to be yet another mild winter.