One of the best articles written regarding weather forecasting is Philip Eden’s ‘Does the Weather Have a Memory?’
The crux of the article is that certain weather types can repeat at the same time of year with one having a 100 per cent probability!
The Christmas storm singularity occurs in 84 per cent of years.
While 84 per cent certainly doesn’t mean ‘nailed on’, in the current set up of models being evenly spread between settled and stormy it can be safely guessed at this range that there will be unsettled weather around on the 25th. Whether it will affect the whole country remains uncertain.
The last big snorter of a Christmas storm I can remember in London was 2013. The entry for the 23rd into the 24th reads.
“Cloudy and breezy start grew steadily duller with rain just before noon. Rain grew heavier with some really strong gusts into evening culminating at 2am. Cloud at one point was 10kms thick. Three deaths related to weather.”
There was chaos nationwide with flooding and power cuts.
The average wind run for this station shows the singularity as well as the mid December settled spell we are now seeing.